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Voice of Doom

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About Voice of Doom

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  1. As there are now so many, not sure which is the best thread to post job losses on but here goes: From The Guardian live business blog... We start with bad news from the UK - Whitbread, the hotel and restaurant chain, is cutting 6,000 jobs. It’s the latest in a string of firms across the leisure sector to cut headcount since the pandemic began. Whitbread, which owns the Premier Inns hotel chains, is cutting its workforce by 18%. It suffered a slump in trading compared with a year ago, and fears that demand will remain weak. ** And furlough still hasn't fully ended.
  2. The pain started in travel, hospitality, events, performing arts, etc., and it will be spreading. For many businesses their key season - summer - didn't happen. For many others we will be able to add Christmas to that list.
  3. Banks are in an invidious position. If they reduce credit availability to protect themselves from falls, they make those falls more likely. It is the mirror image of ye olde HPI days (remember them?) where increasing LTVs meant prices rose and therefore, after the fact, justified their loose lending. There will be chunky falls a-coming.
  4. Yes. Heathrow's troubles will affect Hayes, West Drayton, Feltham, Hounslow and more. And with the pandemic showing no signs of abating soon, I think I'm a bit more bearish than I was a month ago about prices. Sustained R>1 = HPI <0.
  5. The boss of Heathrow is understandably gloomy. This was in the Guardian: "An independent report by Oxford Economics for Hounslow council found the decrease in Heathrow traffic threatened up to 43,000 jobs in the borough, and warned of a £200m hit to the economy causing “extreme hardship for local families and communities”. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/11/airport-boss-says-heathrow-area-risks-becoming-1980s-mining-town?CMP=share_btn_link
  6. Yes. The gig economy and a freshly blown housing bubble. I think economic historians will be particularly hard on Osborne as he had the benefit of seeing what had happened in the run up to the financial crisis and yet still made those decisions.
  7. In reply to Smiley George.. Yes, London will really suffer. So many jobs reliant on tourism, commuters, events and the arts (filming, theatre), and so on. I say it with no joy as I am a Londoner and people I know will prob be affected. But there will be big economic pain and it will spread. And the damage is yet to reach its high water mark. The pandemic is ongoing and the Brexit negotiations don't look promising. As a banker, I'd be nervous.
  8. Great analysis. Sunak pressed the gas, the banks have slammed the brake.
  9. Interesting indeed. I am actually sanguine about the rises recorded by Nationwide and Halifax as I think it reduces the likelihood of more props from the gov in the Autumn Statement. The stamp duty cut might have been the main form of support. Headlines about house price rises with references to the stamp duty cut. Job done....I hope!
  10. I lived a few doors down from this place! It's a nice road in Northfields/Ealing with great local pubs, schools, close to tube stations, etc. Be interesting to see what it finally goes for.
  11. I've posted a couple of times before that most people are too young to remember the mania of the late 80s and the subsequent bust. So interesting to hear the views of people who were actually at the coal face when it happened. And I am in a similar position to your son i.e. holding on to early next year to see the lie of the land. This is like trying to guess how much coffee's actually in your cup when you've been given a really frothy cappuccino.
  12. And if all was rosy and sustainable why would HSBC announce this? HSBC, one of the last banks to offer low-deposit “90%” mortgages, is expected to restrict sales within days, in a move likely to leave first-time buyers struggling to find a loan. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/02/hsbc-plans-to-curb-sales-of-low-deposit-mortgages?CMP=share_btn_link
  13. Me too. I'm looking in London and have only seen one property log change which has gone upwards. Property log yellow pretty much always means a reduction.
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