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Voice of Doom

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  1. Agree totally. I posted on another thread that only 17 new build flats were sold in Ealing last year. The market was open long enough for many many more. That is a paltry amount given the huge supply. And I, too, have watched London flats in a similar area sit for ages on Rightmove. Tons of reductions as well. I love Roman Roady's self-imposed 20% reduction limit on the reductions thread otherwise it'd be flooded with London flats (and elsewhere but I know my patch). Good luck with your search. I expect even more falls later this year as per the other posters on this thread.
  2. Here is an update from W3 (Acton) and W5 (Ealing). It includes opinions from a "property professional" so all caveats apply. http://www.actonw3.com/default.asp?section=property&page=stats2105.htm This is what one Estate Agent has said about W3: "There is slow and steady demand in the area and 100 new build flats were reported as sold last year which, although a fraction of the total in the pipeline does indicate there is an appetite for homes. This is far more than in the adjacent W5 postcode area where only 17 new units were sold despite there being an equivalent supply."
  3. Yep. And thanks again for all your scouring of RM. I love the strictness of the 20% rule! And thanks to @TheCountOfNowherefor the Property Lion update. London figures interesting indeed.
  4. Some people have built up savings over lockdown and can spend bigger. Others have lost income or their jobs or will do so once all support measures end. The exact scale of each and how they interact, God only knows. The stock market goes up based on vaccine-related confidence then it falls back on inflation fears. Prices going up...but still largely falling where I am looking in London. It's such a mixed picture. As I've said before, one can construct a decent case for a bullish or bearish narrative from the data and stories. I'm wary. And if it weren't too good to be true, why
  5. I think the indices are going to be volatile for several months: up, down, sideways. A few posters have likened this to 07-08 before you know what. Let's see where we are when support measures are removed, and the pandemic is truly gone. When that will be, we still don't know. (Like the title by the way but not the %, obviously)
  6. Thanks for posting. It ends with this: "Once the SD holiday ends and we see the extent to which purchases have been brought forward by owners and landlords, and the various stimulus measures have fallen away, we will have a better sense of the underlying market in a post-covid world. A new reality will dawn, the shape of which is still a little difficult to predict?" I have to agree with this. When the patient's on morphine, it's hard to tell how much pain there will be once it's removed.
  7. That Balham one has raised a smile. Look forward to the new dinner party line: "My house loses more in a month than I earn in a year."
  8. A look at the "booming" market in the context of, err, why is it booming given the circumstances. Economist Vicky Pryce describes the economic situation we're now in as artificial (3 mins 30 secs in). Newsnight clip on House Prices Completely agree. Let's see where we are when gov support is finally withdrawn.
  9. Re. sanity and current prices. Some random thoughts. There are so many conflicting and intersecting forces at work at the moment that it's hard to know where we are heading. Here are a few: The unprecedented collapse in economic activity....mitigated by the unprecedented support from the gov with furlough, etc. People WFH accruing savings...others receiving no support or who've lost their jobs and worse off than ever. Landlords selling up and reducing no. of rentals...migrants going back to country of birth / people moving back with parents or friends therefore reducing ren
  10. Thanks @GettingBored. Great work. @TheCountOfNowhereI wondered why the ONS figures showed London up when I've seen Property Log and - via your posts - Property Lion showing asking prices mainly coming down. (I know it's sold vs asking but you'd expect some correlation). I raised this back in Jan 21 and @kierane helpfully posted a link to ONS methodology showing they do take property mix into account. On another thread today I pointed out that the ONS themselves highlighted type of property as a factor in rising prices. So, I'm back nearly at square one with this. If their metho
  11. Thanks. A number of caveats from the link. My numbering: 1. "Because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on both the number and supply of housing transactions, we might see larger revisions to the published House Price Index (HPI) estimates than usual." 2. "Recent price increases may reflect a range of factors including pent-up demand, some possible changes in housing preferences since the pandemic and a response to the changes made to property transaction taxes across the nations." Why is this a factor if the stats apparently take into account mix of
  12. Good stuff. Some tasty drops there. The Twickenham one caught my eye.
  13. Snap re. Outer London. I have just finished some Rightmove browsing. Ended up with "chain free" in my head to the tune of Born Free. And thanks @TheCountOfNowhere for putting that together.
  14. But will Lloyds grant themselves a mortgage? I'm not sure they'd pass the affordability checks.
  15. Great post. And good point about the diff incentives in chains re stamp duty. Lots of new factors to add to an already unclear picture!
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