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Ive noticed the forecast for this index to be -0.6, from -0.5 earlier in the week. Not sure whether these prophets usually like to go negative, or so negative.Usually they punt of +0.2 or the like.

 

I'll predict -1.0

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33 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

Ive noticed the forecast for this index to be -0.6, from -0.5 earlier in the week. Not sure whether these prophets usually like to go negative, or so negative.Usually they punt of +0.2 or the like.

 

I'll predict -1.0

are you referring to the monthly move or the year on year move?

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Last time they had a huge unexpected MoM rise (last March at 1.6%) it was immediately torpedoed by a corrective negative MoM the following month at -3.2%.

Following that logic I reckon Jan needs a nice -4.0% to correct the December anomaly(we can hope)! 

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Knew it, a major negative was due due to the fantasy December figure. Unfortunately that fake turd is in the pipe for another month to keep the YoY up. They are however going to have a major nightmare come March when that finally falls out and they have to compare it to March 2018 which was an equally bad accounting trick. Mega negative YoY in March is my prediction.

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1 minute ago, Chunketh said:

January 2018 - £224,025

January 2019 - £223,691

How is this +0.8%?

It’s the average of Nov 17, Dec 17 & Jan 18 vs Nov 18, Dec 18 & Jan 19

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2 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

January 2018 - £224,025

January 2019 - £223,691

How is this +0.8%?

I think they compare the current quarter with the quarter beginning 15 months ago - or it might be Nationwide that does this.

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January 2018 to January 2019 YoY is negative, -0.2% in fact.  Halifax compare the 3m average to the current month to the 3m average to the same month in the prior year.  Because of the big anomalous reading last month, YoY under their methodology remains positive.

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Just now, Chunketh said:

Ahhh ok. Sounds winky

It is dodgy, especially when they stop showing 2 of the months used for the Calc. I have done the maths in the past from the values when they were available and it never works out. I.e they revise the months no longer shown downwards.

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33 minutes ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:

-2.9% mom

😂

If this happens for a year:  0.971^12 = 0.702
30% drop
yee haw!!!

As homeowners Mrs xux & I will suffer a 6 figure nominal loss, but our pension and savings as a multiple of the average house price would rocket (old codgers).

For young adults reading this not yet 'on the ladder' (horrid term) - the buying power of your deposit & mortgage will also surge - keep your powder dry 😉

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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