Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by spyguy

  1. Whats described is business risk. LLing is a business. The sort of happy path, blue skies, easy sailing that the IO BTL LL expect is unlikely, at least every time.
  2. You can buy a weeks food for 4 people with a days work at NMW.
  3. Next? UK 'win' Eurovision. Ukraine would have won with Uke equivalent of Keith Harris n Orville. France n Germany come bottom. Massive massive snub to EU as was, before Ukraine.
  4. Wrong answer to the wrong question. If you are 16-65 and not in an iron lung tgen you need to be working at least 38h/w. If you are broke then you need a 2nd job or overtime. To answer the question - porridge. That's 1 meal out of 3, for 30p/h.
  5. One to watch - https://www.fca.org.uk/data/mortgage-lending-statistics Latest findings The outstanding value of all residential mortgage loans was £1,613.4 billion at the end of 2021 Q4, 4.7% higher than a year earlier. The value of gross mortgage advances in 2021 Q4 was £70.2 billion, 8.4% lower than in 2020 Q4, and the lowest level since 2020 Q3. The value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) in 2021 Q4 was 2.0% less than the previous quarter at £77.3 billion, and 11.9% less than the recent peak of £87.7 billion a year earlier. The covid boost was already in rapid reverse by the end of 2021. Sine Q42, the CBs have finally admitted theyved fked up. A lot. And are looking at putting some serious rate increases. Will!'s lins shows how banks are running away from lending - risk is very much off. Forget the EA and RM highest asking prices ********. Only a tiny number of people will be getting their mortgage approved. Im willing to bet big money that the number of mortgage sales Q2 22 will be the lowest in history.
  6. A large part of the his false confidence is the belief - and it is just a bele9f - that by giving IR policy to central banks, everything is fixed. NO more booms n bust, careful tweaks to the base rates, slow and steady as she goes .... Of course the reality, especially in the UK where ~80% of the banking sector blew up within 10 years of BoE independence shows a different outcome. IMHO prices have been kept low by China joining the WTO and exporting deflation. Now China is exporting inflation. Id buckle up tight.
  7. Thats just taking money from tax payers and giving it to someone else. Doesnt help the overall cost of living. BoE needs to move to put a good 1% chunk between base rates and the FED. Having your currency fall against the $ is brutal these days. Fall goes straight onto your inflation figures..
  8. Yield or interest? Interest is mainly a cash thing. Gov n company Bonds, money market funds etc give a higher yield than cash with only a slightly higher risk - in normal times
  9. Premium bonds worked if you were a high rate tax payer, had a large dollop (20k+) were looking for a near cash equivalent and weren't called Jonah.
  10. Salary is N/A Its to demonstrate that interest rates going from 3% -> 6% dont double the mortgage repayments. Youve got capital repayment too, which in the early years account for ~40% of the mortgage payments.
  11. No, they stress test assuming a mortgage rate of 6% and make sure that doesnt take more than 30% of your take home.
  12. There is. Ive spent ~10 years (well, since home.co.uk was created) having a casual search, looking for new listings in 2 weeks. Its been v slow for ~10 years. Stuff being listed, stuff being unlisted. A few places even selling. No real urgency. Now everyone has seem to have decided that they need to clear property positions, fast. Sadly, the number of local, under 50 'proceed-able buyers', is fkall. The owner occupier market has lost a generation of buyers - and equity buildup - to IO BTL. Every house- 1, 2, 4 bedroom - is a starter home now. .
  13. Too narrow. MMR is pretty good. And pretty thorough. Ive been thru it with First Direct ~6 years ago. I also got chatting with the mortgage assessor on it. They want bank statements for at least 6 months and your P60 (if you are self employed then they have a more expensive, intrusive process). They you declare all existing debt and regular outgoings - school fees, car loans, maintenance whatever. So they take your income, take your outgoings out, allowing for ctax and utilities. and whats left theyll lend you under 4x. Banks can lend more than 4x. Most dont, for good reason. The IR stress test is just putting 3% on the current SVR and checking the mortgage doesnt take more than ~30% of your take home. IR stress appears to have been designed to take into account the exceptionally low base rates. The FCA have worked on the assumption that SVR will return to their long term average sometime in the mortgage term.
  14. S21 is a request to leave. The LL has to go to court to enforce a S21 notice. Talking to a LA housing bod, the majority of S21 notices he sees are invalid - filled in incorrectly, served wrong, mistakes. The LL serves the S21, waits 2 months, then goes to court. Case heard ~12 months later then immediately thrown out due to S21 errors. Thats almost 18 months are no progress.
  15. About??? Ive speny the last few years, causally doing 'listed in the last 14 days' search. I dont keep records, so youll have to accept this as anecdotal, but theres about 4x more listings. It does appear that too many have kept housing positions they cannot afford for too long.
  16. Bland nailed the outcome of S24 what, ~7 years ago Since then its got only worse for LL, who clung to their position and borrowed more. The LL and banks are idiots and need to go under.
  17. The only reason IO BTL exist - other than idiot banks and idiot LLs - is that ARLA lobbied banks in the late 90s, claiming that ASR laws ensure that the banks could repo a house in a short (couple of months) and legally certain route- serve eviction notice, get it served, house back. The more legal recourse the tenant has, and the longer it takes, then the less likely a bank will lend, at least at the volumes and IR that IO BTL have been able to borrow at. LL mortgage will go back to what they were- specialist finance from finance cos, with 50% deposit. commercial terms- repayment 10years and a high IR. The big banks gave up on new IO BTL years ago, at least in volume. Its been left to the idiot seller banks who cannot afford this process. These banks are not important. They will go to the wall.
  18. Hes too late and its not easy. A LL is looking at ~12 months to get the courts to evict. And going to court is he only legal process to remove a tenant. Getting rid of a bad tenant is easier. However it depends on who defines bad tenant.
  19. Gold price is noisy. Id come back if Gold gives up its gains since ~2010.
  20. CCP stopping people transfer cash out of China.
  21. Thats one way of looking at it, however ... in real life, most people get married to have kids. If you are working in a long hours/high pay jobs then you are unlikely to choose a member of the opposite sex from that pool, if for no other reason to get away from that lunacy. IMHE... And ..... If I waas a very high earner, Id 1) Be putting away cash for a higher deposit. Likely hood of being in the top 0.00001% after 20 years is low. 2) Putting 40k in pension toavoid the painful high taxes on earnings over 150k.
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.