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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. Iirc it was some sort of public health stat rather than pension/actuary thing. Closest I can find, quickly - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy Because of this sensitivity to infant mortality, LEB can be subjected to gross misinterpretation, leading one to believe that a population with a low LEB will necessarily have a small proportion of older people.[4] Another measure, such as life expectancy at age 5 (e5), can be used to exclude the effect of infant mortality to provide a simple measure of overall mortality rates other than in early childhood; in the hypothetical population above, life expectancy at 5 would be another 65. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Life-expectancy-at-age-5-years-e-5-for-each-German-state-left-panels-and-the_fig1_338824082
  2. All MPC members ready to raise UK rates this year if needed, says Bailey BoE governor says the bank would act to prevent higher inflation becoming persistent https://www.ft.com/content/b3e403a3-a408-4d84-b71e-8857b677bbea Hes needs to get his skates on and get ahead of the FED.
  3. US is slightly more complex than the UK. Studying a worthwhile degree at a top Uni isnt as expensive as tge UK. The colleges also have lots of grants and scholarship too, throw in being an instate student and it can be pretty cheap. What the US has are a large number of scamming Unis and trade schools (equiv to FE colleges) overselling useless courses. Theres a lit in tge US who double down on pointless courses, going for a 2 year masters in Jane Austen studies
  4. Timely Covid sparks biggest fall in life expectancy since second world war Oxford study of developed nations finds American men hit hardest by pandemic https://www.ft.com/content/314a387b-4024-4855-9aad-d3d448dbc182 Men suffered larger life expectancy declines than women across most nations. The largest declines in life expectancy were observed among males in the US, who experienced a decline of 2.2 years relative to 2019 levels, followed by Lithuanian males, with a decline of 1.7 years .. “For western European countries such as Spain, England and Wales, Italy, Belgium, among others, the last time such large magnitudes of declines in life expectancy at birth were observed in a single year was during world war two,” said José Manuel Aburto, the study’s co-lead author
  5. Benelux countries, who could whizz around, travelling across several borders then go home for tea. It was a good idea. Til a combination of non means tested, non contribution lottery type wins of tax credits, followed by EE ascension, which emptied half their population into Western Europe. Eu is too slow to change or too bought into certain ideas. Fom is one. Everyone using the Euro is the other. Spain and Italy are literally going to tear Europe apart.
  6. I take it the marketing people have not been to Darlo recently? https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2017-05-09/darlington-drive-by-shooting-linked-to-stolen-skulls https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/15787185.darlington-traveller-feud---we-cannot-allow-incidents-continue-say-police-house-car-set-fire/ Half the towns green, violently so. I have a feeling they meant Dartington.
  7. One of the huge fibs - until MMR -was how banks n BSes valued houses in relations to earnings. Until the 80s it used to be multiple of male earnings. Then the y threw in partners earning, buy only allowed 1x. Then, from the mid 90s, they started counting loads of extra, temporary earnings such as OT and allowing multiples of partners earnings too. Just before 2008 they even chuck3edi n child benefit and ta credits.
  8. It did. However, the mortgage banks messed around wit their loan values, moving from 3x one income + the other, to allowing 5x joint income mortgages. MMR puts mortgage borrowing back to where they were in the mid 80s., maybe even lower as MMR takes into account other debt.
  9. Scabby isnt too bad. Yet - there are a lot of BTL portfolios looking for an exit door that isnt there. If you want to see the future, try an old mining town. These places were population with 'Let us sell you a BTL porfolio!' You see zilch sales up til the late 90s/early 00s, then a couple of close together sales around the mid 00s. Then the house being sold for a few 10k less about 10 years later. https://houseprices.io/shildon/byerley-road
  10. HMRC can legislate for whatever they want. Banks are serious nuts about about additional charges on house. And rightly so. A total no no
  11. All IIRC - I mean that death of children was so common below the age of ~5 that a lot of life expectancy stats used to start from the get of ~5 rather than birth. There wasnt a single average. Depending on what agency/job/interest, there was a life expectancy from birth number, a life expectancy from ~5 and a life expectancy at SRA. Deaths of infants used to be broken out in their own infant mortality rate. Most people, inc. me are interested in life expectancy from SRA. I live in what i becoming a very old area. At least as far as home ownership is concerned. Combination of the 90s recession, IO BTL, etc etc has seen average age of a FTB and home owner go up 15+ years. Anyhow, I did look a the UK life stats table. Basically, an easy rule of thumb is - in a 10 year period ~50% of the 65 and over group will die. You need a healthy chain of buyers- FTB, 2nd movers, 3rd movers, bungalow buyers etc to keep the different sectors of the housing market moving. Mass IO BTL, where the FTB age has been pushed by 10+ years and couples have little equity even by the age of 40, is going to fall hard on house sellers.
  12. Yes, in the main. An they also havent filed tax returns, never midn paid it. S24 killed IO BTL. UKGOV/HMRC needs to start pushing that button very hard. A couple of things will speed up the death of the BTL - BoE ought to be pushing to get IO BTL of regulated banks balance sheets. Force banks to hold 100% capital against IO BTL loans Or, connected to lack of tax returns tax paid, some announced that HMRC will take a first charge against any IO BTL for tax owed.
  13. https://houseprices.io/?q=scarborough Go thru the pages, look at the red numbers. Go to times of stress - 2008, and youll see loads. When IRs turn youll see the same.
  14. Try again. In the past, most life expectancy stats used to start from the age of ~5. The 'fall since the fin crisis ..' depends on whose graph you look at and how they want to present the numbers - https://theconversation.com/life-expectancy-in-britain-has-fallen-so-much-that-a-million-years-of-life-could-disappear-by-2058-why-88063 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58659717 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-profile-for-england/chapter-1-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy https://www.statista.com/statistics/1040159/life-expectancy-united-kingdom-all-time/ I think its fair to say the big increases the UK saw in - mainly male - increases had started to flatten out in the mid 2000s. Sure, given a massive amount of money you can plug dying 90yos into life support and provide 247 care. But all youll get is an extra few months of lying in a bed making a machine go 'ping'
  15. They dont. Tgey fet a tax credit. The problem us - Why arent the s24 rules being pushed harder. They should also move io btl loans off regulated banks balance sheets by forcing tye banks to hold 100% capital against io loans.
  16. I am not an acutary ... From memory, life starts used to start from the age of 5. Under 5 deaths were - and are still quite high. And, no, not down to the Tories! Sometimes sex doesnt work and failures are normally shook out in the first few years. The stats were the money is at is life expectancy at at 65 - or SRA.
  17. Thats actually a bad thing for mortgages. The spread of SVR over base rates is eye raising. Banks raising cash for housing isnt getting cheaper. Imagine a UK mortgage rates with base rates of ~4% plus a 4% spread.
  18. It would affect the size of population. It does not really increase the life expectancy. Life hurdles are - getting born, getting past your 5h bday, getting to ~65.
  19. What's that saying - only sacked if found in bed with a live boy or a dead girl. NW is my hmmm. Its behaving nuts for years. Did the BoE force it?
  20. The rapid growth in life expectancy that started sometime in the mud 70s peaked n levelled out a few years ago https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jun/23/why-is-life-expectancy-falling I'd guess up to 2013 (2013 - 70 = 1943) started to see the initial success of antibiotics rather than the NHS which does not have the effect youd expect on UK life expectancy. Then the UK had the easy wins - reduction of hard, dangerous dusty jobs, reduced smoking, no more lard filled chip pans, better car n road safety etc. Now you'll start seeing the effects of lifestyle changes from the mid 70s - increased skin cancer, booze induced deaths ( switching from beer to high alc drinks), cheap cocaine I guess you'll see a lot of deaths connected to more sedantry, office jobs too.
  21. ECB official and OECD warn of rising inflation risks Surging energy prices and supply bottlenecks could feed into demand for higher wages https://www.ft.com/content/55300c7b-ab06-40c4-a5f4-ed02ddb31374 June was only 3 months ago ffs.
  22. 1) There's more to submarines then boats that sink. They need to be plugged into a comms network and have support ships around, as well as a massive infrastructure. The US is setting up massive bases in the OZ NT. France isnt. 2) France is an also-ran on the world stage. The US is secondary, but secondary with very close ties to the US and Oz/NZ. UK is plugged into the Anglosphere. France has some islands in the pacific and bent, muslim riddled crapholes in Africa. 3) Oz PM rang Macron. Macron didnt take the call. He probably thought it was about he vaccine thing, where France leant on Italy to ban Oz exports. Being a global dick like Macron, back fires.
  23. Saving money, doing big parades to put off the would be invader/bellend. And, most important of all - practise.
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