Tories on course to WIN Hartlepool by-election

[MancTom]

21 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Reminds me very much of the old Labour trope trotted out on here recently that "Labour lost because of the right wing press".

The problem is blaming them is just a convenient excuse for not getting their policies correct and being able to pile the blame on something that is out of their control, rather than actually addressing the real issues that people didn't want to vote for them.

 

Also lots of young people vote Tory and few young people read newspapers, so newspapers cannot explain why people vote Tory. There are also several well known left wing newspapers available and people don't choose to buy them, preferring right wing ones that match their views.

[Warlord]

1 hour ago, MancTom said:

Also lots of young people vote Tory and few young people read newspapers, so newspapers cannot explain why people vote Tory. There are also several well known left wing newspapers available and people don't choose to buy them, preferring right wing ones that match their views.

it's simply down to Boris . He is popular and universally known . Same sort of thing with Blair 20 years ago. Unless things unravel he is going to be around for a long time 

[jimmy2x3]

On 04/05/2021 at 23:22, Warlord said:

I don't know but I do know they have one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.

The fact that they feel comfortable with Boris and are about to vote for the Tories tells you everything .

The tories are big spending socialists in disguise, NO one can argue this ( @zugzwang), and its been going on since 2010 (look at the national debt for example). It cannot go on much longer but for now its working for the Conservatives (and Boris's) pure self-interest.

 

 

the tories have learned, why sort out labours overspending and get the wrath of the population in doing so. so they might as well just leave the economy in as bad a state as labour usually do and then when labour get in it will be them that need to close all the stuff down and tell the nurses they cant get a pay rise.  

Iys a genius move, they are beaten labour at their own game. 

[Trampa501]

I overlooked Wales when I pointed out winning Hartlepool would be poor compensation for flopping in both London and Scotland. It may well be that the Tories gain seats there, which would be interesting. Elsewhere I see even some conservative journalists wondering whether winning Hartlepool but losing influence in Guildford or London is a sound policy. Maybe it is, the demographics of the older home-owning retired population will outnumber the younger element.

[zugzwang]

59 minutes ago, Warlord said:

it's simply down to Boris . He is popular and universally known . Same sort of thing with Blair 20 years ago. Unless things unravel he is going to be around for a long time 

 

Unless things unravel? The national debt is doubling every decade!

The roof's on fire and they're pouring petrol through the front door.

This is way beyond anything Gordon Brown ever did.

[markyh]

2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

 

Unless things unravel? The national debt is doubling every decade!

The roof's on fire and they're pouring petrol through the front door.

But don't worry, all the important people are being rehoused in Bitcoin Citadels, fireproof.   😉

[Riedquat]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

 

Unless things unravel? The national debt is doubling every decade!

The roof's on fire and they're pouring petrol through the front door.

This is way beyond anything Gordon Brown ever did.

No-one outside here cares about national debt. That's just the normal way of doing things to most.

That said I don't think Johnson's got much time left. He'll be gone pretty much as soon as any possible replacement is confident that they won't have to deal with more Covid-19 issues - much better to let Johnson take that hit (although they may want to sneak in at the last minute to be the one in power at the time it's declared over).

[zugzwang]

31 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

No-one outside here cares about national debt. That's just the normal way of doing things to most.

That said I don't think Johnson's got much time left. He'll be gone pretty much as soon as any possible replacement is confident that they won't have to deal with more Covid-19 issues - much better to let Johnson take that hit (although they may want to sneak in at the last minute to be the one in power at the time it's declared over).

 

I assume the Labour Party doesn't make an issue of it because it would hugely complicate their own spending arguments.

Nevertheless, you'd have thought someone - journalist, activist, investor - would be keen to advertise the fact that the UK's aggregate debts are now 300% of GDP, higher today than at any time in history including the war years.

 

[Young Turk]

3 hours ago, Riedquat said:

That said I don't think Johnson's got much time left. He'll be gone pretty much as soon as any possible replacement is confident that they won't have to deal with more Covid-19 issues

I don't see the argument for getting rid of Johnson. He's popular with Tory MPs, members and voters. He has a big majority. 

[Staffsknot]

11 minutes ago, Young Turk said:

I don't see the argument for getting rid of Johnson. He's popular with Tory MPs, members and voters. He has a big majority. 

Because a boatload of bad news will be unloaded by Cummings et al to make a 'clean' new prospect vs the chump who is guilty for all the bad. Watch how Gove will have mysteriously not been touched by anything.

The whole gunboats to Jersey just happened to occur around voting for the save Tories moment, wiping the graft allegations away for a bit. Will flare up while those are out of the way.

They wouldn't have run those stories unless they wanted shot of him / shot across bows to see how they sailed 

[GregBowman]

7 minutes ago, Young Turk said:

I don't see the argument for getting rid of Johnson. He's popular with Tory MPs, members and voters. He has a big majority. 

I  have voted Tory all my life and would agree he certainly is a bit of a plonker. But what's the alternative ? The Tories look like socialist's at the moment so why change on that basis.

Was in Covent garden today and the  world is coming back to something approaching normality, people shopping, drinking eating outside and in ten days inside as well. Covid deaths are as near as dammit zero. The roadmap so far is intact.

What do Labour offer except a white male and stale Sir leading a party that hate the working class. The product offering is useless.

The ever so clever liberal elite have been calling normal people dumb for twenty years they are fed up with it and aren't so dumb after all. They know that after a year of so much change what we need is stability, it doesn't matter who sits in No 10 because circumstances tie their hands re strategy anyway. No one cares about his wallpaper or kids both known and unknown. In fact I am sure many think he is a sly old dog with his sexy young fiancé.

The left as always take life too seriously, he has the common touch as you say and politics when all said and done is  a popularity contest. 

[GregBowman]

3 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Because a boatload of bad news will be unloaded by Cummings et al to make a 'clean' new prospect vs the chump who is guilty for all the bad. Watch how Gove will have mysteriously not been touched by anything.

The whole gunboats to Jersey just happened to occur around voting for the save Tories moment, wiping the graft allegations away for a bit. Will flare up while those are out of the way.

They wouldn't have run those stories unless they wanted shot of him / shot across bows to see how they sailed 

Cummings is like a kid in the playground wind milling his arms saying come on then want  a fight ? He is not a street fighter otherwise he would of landed some killer blows already. Th only set of people that will curtail Boris is the 1922 committee not some discredited spin doctor. If they have to they will slip Dishi Rishi in.

The labour party base is dwindling faster than Boris's bank account. They have totally disenfranchised their original base the working class. Large swathes of the Indian and Asian community are now Tory voters. Eastern Europeans absolutely hate socialism which just leaves young metropolitan liberal well off voters.  Even then if you use Brexit as a rough proxy 30% of 18-24 year olds voted leave and 46% of 25-46 year olds. The young are more conservative with a small c than people think.

Boris has easy got two terms in him maybe more

[GregBowman]

7 hours ago, Trampa501 said:

I overlooked Wales when I pointed out winning Hartlepool would be poor compensation for flopping in both London and Scotland. It may well be that the Tories gain seats there, which would be interesting. Elsewhere I see even some conservative journalists wondering whether winning Hartlepool but losing influence in Guildford or London is a sound policy. Maybe it is, the demographics of the older home-owning retired population will outnumber the younger element.

London will be lost by the Tories not won by Labour ridiculously  poor choice of Tory candidate 

[Young Turk]

27 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Because a boatload of bad news will be unloaded by Cummings et al to make a 'clean' new prospect vs the chump who is guilty for all the bad.

What sort of bad news? How will it be different to what has come out about Johnson over the last few decades?

People who already disapprove will have extra confirmation of their low opinion of them and people who approve will ignore or explain away any negative claims. 

Johnson will remain far ahead of Starmer in the polls. Is there any mechanism to remove a very popular leader with a big majority?

[Dorkins]

40 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

The young are more conservative with a small c than people think.

I suspect the young are more conservative than the actual Conservative party in that most young people believe in the rough and tumble of free markets while the Conservatives believe in using taxpayer money to pump up asset prices to enrich existing assetholders.

Although taking a longer view it's just the Tory party returning to its historical position of protecting rich and powerful landowners from market forces (e.g. the Corn Laws), the Thatcherite borrowing of free market policies from the old Liberals appears to have been a blip and the Tories are back to wanting a society and economy based on patronage. This is also reflected in the leadership of the Tory party itself where it is once again dominated by posh boys from old money rather than hungry grafters from humble backgrounds like Thatcher and Major.

Edited May 6, 2021 by Dorkins

[onlooker]

31 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Cummings is like a kid in the playground wind milling his arms saying come on then want  a fight ? He is not a street fighter otherwise he would of landed some killer blows already. Th only set of people that will curtail Boris is the 1922 committee not some discredited spin doctor. If they have to they will slip Dishi Rishi in.

The labour party base is dwindling faster than Boris's bank account. They have totally disenfranchised their original base the working class. Large swathes of the Indian and Asian community are now Tory voters. Eastern Europeans absolutely hate socialism which just leaves young metropolitan liberal well off voters.  Even then if you use Brexit as a rough proxy 30% of 18-24 year olds voted leave and 46% of 25-46 year olds. The young are more conservative with a small c than people think.

Boris has easy got two terms in him maybe more

I agree entirely with both of your posts, except with respect to Cummings. I get the impression he is a very clever but very cynical person, who has his own agenda and beliefs, and I don't think has ever been a Tory party member. I don't think he wants to bring Boris down, but was merely responding to some serious accusations which gives the impression that somebody is trying to fit Cummings up as a fall guy in the future Covid inquiry. Why people in Boris' circle have made these accusations is completely beyond me. It was like a red rag to a bull. Cummings is the type to bring a gun to a knife fight.

[Warlord]

4 hours ago, zugzwang said:

 

I assume the Labour Party doesn't make an issue of it because it would hugely complicate their own spending arguments.

Nevertheless, you'd have thought someone - journalist, activist, investor - would be keen to advertise the fact that the UK's aggregate debts are now 300% of GDP, higher today than at any time in history including the war years.

 

The debt wont become an issue until it becomes an issue .

We wake up one day and their will be a crisis, be it currency, banks collapsing, massive inflation etc. 

I've given up putting timeframes on when these consequences will happen and simply say it'll happen one day and we will wake up to it.

The mainstream economists will claim "no one could have predicted this!!" 

But those who look at HPC will say we have been warning about these crisis for many years. 

So absent rampant inflation and a crisis Boris will continue to attract support even from Labour working class voters.

When the SHTF things might change......... 

[GregBowman]

2 hours ago, onlooker said:

I agree entirely with both of your posts, except with respect to Cummings. I get the impression he is a very clever but very cynical person, who has his own agenda and beliefs, and I don't think has ever been a Tory party member. I don't think he wants to bring Boris down, but was merely responding to some serious accusations which gives the impression that somebody is trying to fit Cummings up as a fall guy in the future Covid inquiry. Why people in Boris' circle have made these accusations is completely beyond me. It was like a red rag to a bull. Cummings is the type to bring a gun to a knife fight.

That’s a very good point - being a political and bit on well you know the spectrum a dangerous combo 

[winkie]

Who is in control of the purse strings.......people will support them hoping something will pass their way, Labour is looked upon as a weak, divided, wishy washy party who have not always done the best in the past for those that voted them in, not always because they did not try, or have the right intention, but because they didn't have sufficient power to make changes required.

Everything today revolves around control, are we in control of our lives, our jobs, our relationships, our life?.....do we have the power to overcome adversity......if we feel we no longer hold power or control over our lives who does hold it? who's fault is it, who can we blame?.....

[HovelinHove]

Boris was elected on a right wing Brexit, libertarian agenda, but since coming to power has adopted most of the policies of the centre of British politics...the kind of policies that the middle class love. He has lost a lot of the hard core free market libertarians (like me) in the process...I voted for him but absolutely detest him now because of the endless unnecessary population wide lockdowns, vast handouts, support for spivs, and his obvious lack of competence or integrity. However, we are a minority, and while he may have lost us he has gained all of those who are apolitical, and economically ignorant...the vast majority of our nation. I pretty much give up on politics now. Democracy is now an exercise of following public opinion which in turn is formed by a hysterical, misleading and manipulative media. 

Edited May 7, 2021 by HovelinHove

[Bruce Banner]

36 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

Boris was elected on a right wing Brexit, libertarian agenda, but since coming to power has adopted most of the policies of the centre of British politics...the kind of policies that the middle class love. He has lost a lot of the hard core free market libertarians (like me) in the process...I voted for him but absolutely detest him now because of the endless unnecessary population wide lockdowns, vast handouts, support for spivs, and his obvious lack of competence or integrity. However, we are a minority, and while he may have lost us he has gained all of those who are apolitical, and economically ignorant...the vast majority of our nation. I pretty much give up on politics now. Democracy is now an exercise of following public opinion which in turn is formed by a hysterical, misleading and manipulative media. 

I feel the same as I felt when Blair was at the height of his popularity, incredulous that so many people could be taken in by an obvious (to me) chancer. It took a few years but eventually he was seen for what he was. How long will it take for the majority to see BJ for what he Is?

[Warlord]

Conservatives take Hartlepool seat from Labour

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57019456

 

[14stFlyer]

Nearly 2:1 Conservative to Labour.   Insulting your voting base was never going to be a successful strategy and has to stop if Labour are going to regain their (traditional) core voters. 

[Huggy]

17 minutes ago, Warlord said:

Conservatives take Hartlepool seat from Labour

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57019456

 

Despite Brexit, despite Covid, and despite wallpaper. After reading this site for the past 18 months, one would have thought the Tories would never get a vote from any one ever again.

If you hate the voters they will not vote for you.

[hotblack42]

35 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

How long will it take for the majority to see BJ for what he Is?

Long enough not to matter to him.

Maybe older than you, but I try not to waste energy now on why the majority have a superficial, short term outlook. They just have.

Plan your life for what is likely, not what ought to be.