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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by HovelinHove

  1. Neil Oliver predicts the banks stealing our homes from us over the next few years in his most recent rant:
  2. The removal of house prices from official inflation measures was the single most damaging thing done to the average person’s finances in my lifetime. It was deliberate and co-ordinated globally. In the next few years the evil men and women behind this move will reap their harvest with a huge transfer of property ownership from mortgage payees to the banks…in the name of reducing headline defaults. You will own nothing and be happy.
  3. If I hadn't bought my house last year, the large deposit I had (75%) would now be worth less as interest rates were and still are pathetic compared to inflation. Instead the property I bought has gone up 15%. Rents are going up everywhere...while I fully expect a house price correction, especially at the bottom of the market, I think that unless there are large amounts of forced sales, prices on good properties may drift sideways for a few years. On that note, I am being made redundant eek!
  4. After my experience of the past 30 years, I don't think any government would allow an outright crash in nominal terms like we saw in the early 90s, but in real terms yes. They are basically doing that to us anyway by not raising interest rates. Organizations like Blackrock will be hoovering up well priced rentable properties on very favorable loan terms, as they have done in the states. New build neighborhoods in particular. With inflation running close to 10%, those who have cash/access to cheap money, will be looking for long term safety and land/property in good neighborhoods will always hold significant safety value as an asset on an island like ours which is hell bent on allowing hordes of people in each year. In the absence of a 1990s style repossession event, decent properties owned by middle class people won't go on the market if prices start dropping, they will just stay put. However, prices won't rise any more in the short term, which in effect means a YoY drop of 10% while inflation stays high. This will change once wages start to rise, when prices will start to go up again...I don't see that for a few years now though. As an aside, my car has gone up value in the last 18 months by 25%. 1 year old E-class I bought with low mileage for 30k in 2018, was worth about 18k August 2020, now worth over 22k! I don't see property dropping much in this environment even if demand does fall. I do see governments and CBs in the West have crossed the freshold of inflation vs deflation, and will alow inflation to devalue debts and currencies for another year or two. People with any cash left will buy safe assets, and property is one of the safest on a medium to long timescale.
  5. I went in two weeks ago, and they are running reduced services on the trains resulting overcrowding, so won't bother again until they run a full service. They probably never will now they are all but publicly owned. Public sector is total toilet.
  6. It will be a hybrid situation. I am starting to do face to face, but I deal with doctors in the NHS, and they have become very happy with the Teams situation. Like I said, I have always been field based, so had a home office, I just doubt very much I will be on the road as much as I was…not efficient.
  7. I think this is a very important point. Prior to the pandemic I would not have bought a house in the village we did. I used to travel 4 days a week, probably 2 days into London, 2 days Nationally but we have changed how we work forever. Once things are fully open we will be doing about 50% of our field work face to face maximum, and the rest on Teams which we is now second nature for us and our customers. This means I only need to go to the station 2 maybe 3 times a week max, which allowed me to widen my search to houses which were a decent size outside of the traditional commuter zones. Secondly, I have always worked from home, so always needed an extra room, but my wife has now moved over to permanent WFH, with maybe 1-2 visits to her office a month. So we have a 4 bedroom house, but in reality it is only 2 bedrooms and 2 offices. This is a huge factor, and represents a permanent change in requirements for people. I see city centre being exclusive to single people and AirBnB crash pads for people who are coming into the office for a couple of days. Now we have our house, we will be staying here.
  8. I reckon that someone with a particular attachment to the neighborhood won the lottery and had that house built, no other reason there would be a property like there in that location. Completely bonkers...not just the cemnt works, or car dealership over the road, but the row of grotty terraced houses next door. Someone with zero sense built it.
  9. Yup...the entire fecking country and economy exists solely for the purpose of keeping the dysfunctional NHS running.
  10. It’s the same old idiots advocating the same insanity. Thankfully it appears that adults are in the room, like Chris Whittey and other experts and they have a different view. From the DT this morning, echoing precisely what I said a couple of pages ago. So all you bed wetting lefties who want everyone to be miserable to feed your miserable socialist agenda and your pathetic neurosis, go away and shut up:
  11. With archived T-cell response to the original version due to vaccination or aquired immunity, let it spread. Fatality rate will probably be about 0.1-0.2%...aka similar to normal flu. Time to move on.
  12. We handed the keys back to our rental last week, and she said we were lucky to be able to buy a house. In this area, rural West Sussex with a 1.5 hour commute if you include drive to station and parking, detached houses for sale have 20 viewings within a day of listing. That is now. That is what the agent said with nothing to gain. I see houses like the one we bought in March going for 10% more than we paid now, and selling in a week. For the right kind of home the market is still nuts. There are a large group of people who live in London who didn’t rush to buy in the country, and waited to see how WFH would pan out who are now being granted full or part time WFH and will now move.
  13. The people who use tradesmen will typically have their own home, but young tradesmen have been priced out until recently. I have spoken to a couple of young electricians who were talking about buying now after years of bing frozen out.I have less money because they are earning more, but I just bought a house and borrowed a bit extra to pay the increased costs.
  14. I think you are right in some ways. As inflation takes off people will have less money to spend on houses and IRs will rise. This will throttle opportunities for growth. On the other hand, if inflation is taking off, people will look to keep their money in property as protection. That is part of the reason that I bought now, that and the fact I was paying loony rent. I was genuinely worried about the large amount of cash that I had being devalued. We bought a house at 2018 prices, and having renovated would make at least 50-100k pure profit after all the costs of the refurbs and moving in just 3 months. I feel much happier being in this position than sitting on a pile of cash. If the price of property goes down, I will just ride it out and be living in a lovely home that I own not having to rely on the landlords whims, but if inflation burned my savings I would have been stuffed. If I was a young plumber or electrician and just worked my fingers to the bone this past year and managed to put aside 30k, I’d put it into a house or flat. Every day reading about inflation would make me want to move that money out of the bank. I sleep better now.
  15. I'm turning full VI now as I recently moved into my new home however, I have to say, that despite the huge potential for a crash that lurks out there, I think there is one thing that may really change things, and that is a big surge in wages of those with a trade. We have spent 3 months (of hell) having our new house renovated, and trying to get plumbers, electricians or plasterers etc is a nightmare and they are charging what they want. That is partly due to the surge in activity, but also lack of foreign cheap competition. I have spoken to lots of them and they are very happy about things and some young ones were talking of buying decent homes. Whilst I think the crazy rises of the past year will stop, I do think there are sufficient numbers of buyers of homes who are now earning enough to afford the prices being asked.
  16. I was doing Jury service last week and one of the jurors had moved to our area last year, selling up their home in Chiswick to live the WFH dream. Now one of them has been told they have to be in 5 days a week in West London. 1.5 hr commute from hell. It is because of them houses have been unaffordable in my area, and now because of them panicking and selling up, the house I bought will probably lose 25% of its value! Grrr. However, I do think those who were more wise and decided to wait before making the plunge, and now see 2-3 days WFH becoming a permanent reality, will now make the move. There could be a bit of churn with those who jumped the gun selling to those who hung on to see what would happen, so prices could just stabilize. I don't see anyone else selling a house though if they don't need to, and with all governments committed to "protecting hard working families" there is no chance of mass repossessions, just a gradual take over the property market by banks with government help.
  17. Yep. You will own nothing, and they will own everything. Mass home ownership , the idea that you pay off a debt over a number years to own a home, empowers and enriches the masses, especially in their later years, but this is pure feudalism and a return to serfdom where the masses are at the mercy of these organisations and governments. This is precisely what the Great Reset is…they dress it up as some sort of socialist paradise, but it is corporate feudalism.
  18. This video makes huge sense to me (apart from the desperate plea at the end to buy Bitcoin…although I get that too). I look around the world, especially the Anglo Saxon world, and I have fingers in the Canadian, New Zealand and UK pies, and I am seeing bonkers increases in property prices (the UK is massively under performing Canada and New Zealand). The US is seeing massive run ups, and yes, some of that is driven by people fleeing the cities, but some of it is definitely being driven by this (Blackrock and other huge funds buying houses). I have become a little suspicious that it has been happening in commuter towns in Britain…houses disappearing the day they are listed. There are not many individuals out there capable of mobilising that fast. I also think we will see this happen by stealth when the economy goes into reverse and people hit hard times. There will be no repossessions, the ownership will just transfer to banks or investment funds and former owners will become tenants. We are slowly reverting to a feudal system. (disclaimer - I complete on my house purchase in 4 days time so now have a vested interest in prices not crashing).
  19. Best sell your fiat. I transferred much of my cash to my solicitors for my house purchase yesterday…my bank accounts look normal again, and I feel very relieved. less worried about an HPC than something gobbling my cash, including the inflation monster. HPC 25%…oh well, bank collapses, money printing…so few people have six figures in cash lying around that if they get burned, no one will care…especially not CBs or politicians. Assets are the way ahead.
  20. I completely agree. They will burn everything down with inflation. As for the UK, the oaf in Downing Street wants a second term, he will change the fixed term parliament act, and go for a 2023 election. He will quit in 2025 as he is lazy and would rather have fun and make money writing and giving speeches. In the meantime he will do a deal with Sunak that if he does everything to keep the plates spinning till at least the election, then he will support him taking over. They will dream up completely new ways of stopping a crash. There will be no repossessions and lots of incentives for FTBs. After 2023 there will be a crash vs Gold etc, and in real terms, but probably not nominal terms as these monsters will be happy to see fiat devalued massively as they are all asset rich.
  21. Our landlords have been fine, just costs us an arm and a leg.
  22. Thank you. Yes, I wish I was buying with more confidence in the market, but I am sufficiently confident about the house, location, and personal circumstances to take the risk.
  23. Thanks for the tips and the warning. yes, I’m aware of the issues with supply chains. Also, your advise on keeping existing structure, something we recently decided and instead of a huge open plan kitchen diner we are going to have a well insulated tiled conservatory and keep the rooms divided. With the advent of so many WFH, more rooms are better, and it is cheaper too. We are lucky to be able to continue renting our current property, but at the same time it is money we’d rather be spending on the renovations, so at some point we will move in with the builders half finished.
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