TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 This is from a point raised by @Spyguy about the fallout from what we are seeing right now, not just CV19 but also Brexit. A mate of mine in France says the French are getting a bit angry with the British now !!! Anyway Spyguy asked: "Simple question - has Covid made the UK richer or poorer. If richer than buy buy buy! If poorer then you better start bracing for the fall out." Obviously poorer, so what's going to be the fall out from CV19/Brexit in the next 24 months ? Youth unemployment London housing bubble collapse Price inflation Anger The collapse of BTL Higher Mortgage rates More inequality More immigration More anger Totalitarian state worst case, enlarged nanny state at best NHS sell off, that calf has been well and truly fattened Fertility rates falling (possibly ) A final 1920s style boom and bust Who knows, but I dont think it's good for most of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammersmith Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: London housing bubble collapse Every under 40's person i know in London that isn't renting has bought a new build flat (with cladding) and (usually) through Shared Ownership. If they want to cash in and move out then they'll need someone to buy them out. Now more than ever i really don't know who they plan to sell to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 23, 2021 Author Share Posted March 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, sammersmith said: Every under 40's person i know in London that isn't renting has bought a new build flat (with cladding) and (usually) through Shared Ownership. If they want to cash in and move out then they'll need someone to buy them out. Now more than ever i really don't know who they plan to sell to. I suppose people feeling the cities but unable to find buyers ( unless they are from HK of course ) is one of the major fall outs. Who in their right mind would buy a flat in London right now ? The falling rents also has a major impact on what BTLer/investors are able or willing to pay for a crappy flat putting more downward pressure on prices in London. Due to the price differential then you wont see many people moving from say Newcastle to London but plenty the other way if they could sell. Hence why I put my London bubble bursting on the list. I think come the end of the summer it'll be quite clear whats going to happen until people from HK are really that stupid, which I doubt they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtlessmanc Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 (edited) At least unemployment went down last quarter https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/23/uk-unemployment-falls-covid-19-jobless-rate I think the problems of the southern eurozone will dwarf any problems the UK has wrt Covid. given they caught 16 people trying to smuggle themselves out of the UK yestreday, not sure about the immigration either - i think that the current situation must be diabolical for irregular migrants. Edited March 23, 2021 by debtlessmanc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said: At least unemployment went down last quarter https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/23/uk-unemployment-falls-covid-19-jobless-rate I think the problems of the southern eurozone will dwarf any problems the UK has wrt Covid. given they caught 16 people trying to smuggle themselves out of the UK yestreday, not sure about the immigration either - i think that the current situation must be diabolical for irregular migrants. Meds looking like a 2nd summer of holidays Even fewer than last year. Expect riots all along the coast. It better be a colder damp summer otherwise ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said: At least unemployment went down last quarter https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/23/uk-unemployment-falls-covid-19-jobless-rate I think the problems of the southern eurozone will dwarf any problems the UK has wrt Covid. given they caught 16 people trying to smuggle themselves out of the UK yestreday, not sure about the immigration either - i think that the current situation must be diabolical for irregular migrants. Without tourists all those €8 diet cokes on Greek Islands will be get rather lonely. Didn't go into this in the best place. Key point is whether intra EU movement is stopped this summer. They could prob survive another year without the Americans and brits etc as long as the Germans and Danes etc can still go and fill up the hotels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said: At least unemployment went down last quarter https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/23/uk-unemployment-falls-covid-19-jobless-rate I think the problems of the southern eurozone will dwarf any problems the UK has wrt Covid. given they caught 16 people trying to smuggle themselves out of the UK yestreday, not sure about the immigration either - i think that the current situation must be diabolical for irregular migrants. those under 35 disproportionally affected, something like 80% of job losses are under 35, whereas 50-60 have seen a 10k increase in employment!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: "Simple question - has Covid made the UK richer or poorer. If richer than buy buy buy! If poorer then you better start bracing for the fall out." I think that's a false dichotomy. COVID has made the whole world poorer, because it has reduced what the human race has been able to do and achieve in the last 12 months. However, now it's on the decline there are definitely some things to buy buy buy as economic activity recommences.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 55 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said: those under 35 disproportionally affected, something like 80% of job losses are under 35, whereas 50-60 have seen a 10k increase in employment!!! Ah those lazy millennials (hand grenade thrown). 😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 23, 2021 Author Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 hours ago, debtlessmanc said: At least unemployment went down last quarter https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/23/uk-unemployment-falls-covid-19-jobless-rate I think the problems of the southern eurozone will dwarf any problems the UK has wrt Covid. given they caught 16 people trying to smuggle themselves out of the UK yestreday, not sure about the immigration either - i think that the current situation must be diabolical for irregular migrants. I saw that explained as all the contractors are being forced into full time employment due to IR35, hence the increase, also explains the increase in 50-60 employment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24gray24 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 6 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: This is from a point raised by @Spyguy about the fallout from what we are seeing right now, not just CV19 but also Brexit. A mate of mine in France says the French are getting a bit angry with the British now !!! Anyway Spyguy asked: "Simple question - has Covid made the UK richer or poorer. If richer than buy buy buy! If poorer then you better start bracing for the fall out." Obviously poorer, so what's going to be the fall out from CV19/Brexit in the next 24 months ? Youth unemployment London housing bubble collapse Price inflation Anger The collapse of BTL Higher Mortgage rates More inequality More immigration More anger Totalitarian state worst case, enlarged nanny state at best NHS sell off, that calf has been well and truly fattened Fertility rates falling (possibly ) A final 1920s style boom and bust Who knows, but I dont think it's good for most of us. Not convinced about any of those happening except the first one. It's almost like we had the recession in the last 18 months, and now things are picking up again. It's end of lockdown fever in my area. The opposite of gloom and doom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 23, 2021 Author Share Posted March 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, 24gray24 said: Not convinced about any of those happening except the first one. It's almost like we had the recession in the last 18 months, and now things are picking up again. It's end of lockdown fever in my area. The opposite of gloom and doom. You must live in a very jolly place. When the price inflation hits things will turn quickly. had your council tax bill...5% increase after tax. Thats the start of them turning the screw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insane Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 No one knows what the fall out is going to be like as always there are going to be pluses and minuses. I do think there will be a big spend up for many people (those who have been on Furlough with 80% pay and less expenses or those who have worked ) I have a shopping list once the shops open and know many others who also have lists. So a Boom will ensure to start off and If people cannot go abroad this summer the money will be spent here. However I don't know if it is to do with Brexit , The Virus or Something Else but Inflation is going through the Roof. I am quite fortunate that I don't have to scrimp and watch the pennies but I now shop for my Dad who is 87 who is unable to do his own shopping any more. Being a creature of habit this list is almost identical every week , so buying the same stuff all the time I notice the prices rising. Last week a tin of beans that were 65p a few weeks back went to 70p and now 75p. His biscuits from £1.50 to £1.75 The big shock were his Blephaclean Sterile Eye Wipes. Last time I bought them maybe a few months back they were under £8 not sure of the exact price but defiantly under £8. Last week £9.72. When I mentioned this to the women behind the Chemist Counter she shrugged and " said everything has gone up " But that is a rise of about 25% are we returning to the mass inflation of the 70's and early 80's ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Best just to refuse to spend money on pointless tat and save as much as you can. Time to laugh at the corrupt system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 New ONS inflation data is out tomorrow [24th]. Ill post it. But something doesnt add up to me. Currently annual inflation is 0.9% to Jan2021 [latest data]. CPIH does include housing costs and only for owner occupiers. The only thing I can think that is skewing the inflation data is mortgage holidays? Did anyone take one is anyone currently on one? That has to be the largest household cost each month surely and if we all took a payment holiday that will be reflected in the data, keeping that inflation index nice and low. Strip that out and I wonder what 'real' rates are.... Would anyone hazard a guess? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Former postman Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 36 minutes ago, Social Justice League said: Best just to refuse to spend money on pointless tat and save as much as you can. Time to laugh at the corrupt system. The only thing I'm buying when lockdown ends is a nice cold pint to drink in a beer garden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 8 hours ago, captainb said: Without tourists all those €8 diet cokes on Greek Islands will be get rather lonely. Didn't go into this in the best place. Key point is whether intra EU movement is stopped this summer. They could prob survive another year without the Americans and brits etc as long as the Germans and Danes etc can still go and fill up the hotels. €8 diet cokes? you must be going to the party islands. We go to a brilliant little island called Anti paros. Very nice people, nice tourists, no sick on the pavement 1/2 the price of Corfu for eating out and excellent kebabs for €3 . No airport though which is probably its saviour. Paid €30 per night for a really nice room with a massive balcony the last 2 years running. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Postman said: The only thing I'm buying when lockdown ends is a nice cold pint to drink in a beer garden. Have you booked. 😀 You and 20Million others have the same plan. I'm unemployed so can go on a sunny Monday when everyone else is at work and spend the afternoon with my 1/2 pint of shandy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 My biggest (non political viewpoint) worry is that the EU must show how Brexit has failed the UK because if the UK starts to do better than the EU then there is a danger of other countries calling for referendums and wanting to leave. My friends in Germany say they are very pro EU because the country does so well....... but if that changes even for non EU reasons ie just generally and if the UK prospers then the EU could wobble. The outcome is the EU is very likely to try make the next 5 years hard for the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 17 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: I suppose people feeling the cities but unable to find buyers ( unless they are from HK of course ) is one of the major fall outs. Who in their right mind would buy a flat in London right now ? The falling rents also has a major impact on what BTLer/investors are able or willing to pay for a crappy flat putting more downward pressure on prices in London. Due to the price differential then you wont see many people moving from say Newcastle to London but plenty the other way if they could sell. Hence why I put my London bubble bursting on the list. I think come the end of the summer it'll be quite clear whats going to happen until people from HK are really that stupid, which I doubt they are. Bulli Patel is due to announce a new migrant 'crackdown' this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtlessmanc Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Pop321 said: My biggest (non political viewpoint) worry is that the EU must show how Brexit has failed the UK because if the UK starts to do better than the EU then there is a danger of other countries calling for referendums and wanting to leave. My friends in Germany say they are very pro EU because the country does so well....... but if that changes even for non EU reasons ie just generally and if the UK prospers then the EU could wobble. The outcome is the EU is very likely to try make the next 5 years hard for the UK. I subscribe to the nytimes, everyday another report from some expert or other that the AstraZeneca statistics are not quite right (quote shameful nitpicking stuff) that someone somewhere had a stroke one week after the jab etc. That the us will not approve it. The continental politicians behaviour is even more bizarre. It doesn't work but we do not want you to have it, even though it is very cheap. Don't be fooled there are major geopolitical changes occurring. For me only 2 assumptions are needed to fit the behaviour 1. The politicos and big pharma know that the AZ vaccine is safe and works 2, they really do not want the U.K. to get a financial or political advantage from it. the national vaccine centre will come on line in June it can produce 100m doses a month and AZ will make a profit on the "upgrade" vaccinations against variants. If the developing world goes for AZ it could make 10's of bns dollars a year for it. The U.K. will get a real boost from being the Guinea pig too. having said all that. I don't think that the EU is under threat of break up, more likely reform - which would be a good thing. The immediate threat to the EU is that the U.K. carries on doing what it was before and importing the most productive element of European youth. Edited March 24, 2021 by debtlessmanc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said: If the developing world goes for AZ it could make 10's of bns dollars a year for it. The U.K. will get a real boost from being the Guinea pig too. Many developing nations have their own vaccines. Cheaper, locally sourced and at least as reliable as AZ. Africa is being aggressively courted by China. https://qz.com/africa/1984683/african-countries-targeted-by-chinas-vaccine-diplomacy/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, Data Dave said: New ONS inflation data is out tomorrow [24th]. Ill post it. But something doesnt add up to me. Currently annual inflation is 0.9% to Jan2021 [latest data]. CPIH does include housing costs and only for owner occupiers. The only thing I can think that is skewing the inflation data is mortgage holidays? Did anyone take one is anyone currently on one? That has to be the largest household cost each month surely and if we all took a payment holiday that will be reflected in the data, keeping that inflation index nice and low. Strip that out and I wonder what 'real' rates are.... Would anyone hazard a guess? Nah. The housing costs are off a what it would cost to rent proxy done by the valuations office as an assessment of what housing costs would be. Its not house prices or mortgage payments as that has a large capital element. So basically mortgages holidays no impact. The dull actual reason is human nature. If you go into Sainsbury you remember the packet of biscuits has gone up to £1.60 from £1.25 but ignore everything else that has stayed the same. As *no change* no memory. Get some petrol on the way out forget that it hasn't really changed in price for a decade plus*. Go off and buy a TV or a oven again no price change for a decade. Don't notice it. However, if you were to buy a pint in central London and charged 6 quid for it you would be telling your friends for weeks about how stupidly expensive everything is. *price variance clearly has occurred in that time but pump prices are currently cheaper than they were in 2010/1/2 etc and have been for years. Edited March 24, 2021 by captainb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 9 hours ago, Data Dave said: New ONS inflation data is out tomorrow [24th]. Ill post it. But something doesnt add up to me. Currently annual inflation is 0.9% to Jan2021 [latest data]. CPIH does include housing costs and only for owner occupiers. The only thing I can think that is skewing the inflation data is mortgage holidays? Did anyone take one is anyone currently on one? That has to be the largest household cost each month surely and if we all took a payment holiday that will be reflected in the data, keeping that inflation index nice and low. Strip that out and I wonder what 'real' rates are.... Would anyone hazard a guess? Mortgage payments take up roughly the same percentage of monthly income as they have done for the last 20-30 years. There has been no mortgage payment inflation so the government and central bank pat themselves on the back, job well done. Of course, the total price you have to pay over your lifetime and the length you'll be paying it has inflated enormously, so we (well, those of us who bought too late) are all materially worse off, but they wouldn't choose to measure it that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtlessmanc Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 (edited) 26 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Africa is being aggressively courted by China. An unfortunate choice of words https://nextshark.com/chinese-men-working-africa-reportedly-get-ugandan-women-pregnant-abandon/ it is all about scale up and experience of mass vaccination, indeed Edited March 24, 2021 by debtlessmanc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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