Pop321

Cheers, I have been a landlord but primarily a buyer/seller. Shifting assets over now to 25% allocation cash/hard assets/equities/property and waiting for what I believe will be a one in a 3 or 4 lifetime end to a cycle. Rome over extended itself, it’s stretched its military, it stopped producing and relied on others, it consumed more than it consumed and then it watered down its coins with other metals…..and that has happened 30 times ever since….and sounding ominously like the US now. We have a choice now to produce more ourselves, consume less….a lot less and get back to basics. But that’s a hard ask when people need to give up benefits or give up a non productive ‘office’ made up job and start working in a factory. 600 million Africans don’t even have a plug yet the EU preaches about carbon emissions….it’s not the producers it’s the consumers where the issue lies. So the choice is clear….sort out the finance or just keep printing more money until a collapse usually followed by civil unrest or wars. And without exception governments will absolutely always just keep printing….but not to worry from the ashes they will offer us something new and the gullible will take it….and the cycle will start again. And some leader in a far off land will be blamed in between watching X factor and I’m a celebrity I used to follow this site but drop in from time to time but only with messages of gloom……HPC is nailed on which is a positive thing for the younger generation and I welcome it…..it’s just a question of exactly when and whether inflation will hide falls a bit. But rather than convince others now I am prepping for the worst. 😉

Sold 2 this year…..whilst others are in denial it’s a great time to pitch a bit below the market and bail. The whole advantage of housing as an investment is that prices are not efficient. In times of despair you can get something for perhaps half the price it should be….it’s great. This appears to be something lost of amateur BTL landlords who are the only ‘traders’ I know who pay ‘retail prices’. Things ain’t going to improve for sellers….we may see tweaks by the government but the whole thing will come crushing down soon….not just houses. Short term dips in rates, inflation and commodity prices will be ripples in the ocean. Interesting times ahead. 😉

It’s easy to over think things in conceptual terms and it can becomes academically right but not very productive in determining next steps. For me (and again that’s important because it’s my perspective of measures not other people’s) I try to see and measure things in things like gold despite not being a gold bug. House prices, the stock markets, price of food….when measured in gold rather than the fluidity of fiat becomes a different viewpoint. Or at least it allows another mathematical measure. It’s more than gold as a base for me….it’s energy, it’s commodities, it’s land and food. Tangibles which we measure in a ‘price’ eg GBP, Euros or US dollars but that price measure for me is now too fluid. The key for me has been to sell some property and aim for a split of asset wealth between deposits, equities, real estate and hard assets. My only objective now is to try and preserve what I have because inflation and money printing is making things too difficult to do so. Inflation so far is probably about 35% over this ‘blip’ and I am expecting at least the same again over the next 4/5 years….but the goverbank like to tell us annual numbers to hide the full effect of eroding wealth. We head now for very difficult times and we will be asked to blame numerous other countries, maybe a few wars thrown in etc…..when the truth of the reasons what we will see will lie much closer to home. It’s happened many times before and they will keep printing money until the machines break.🤦🏻‍♂️

I think it says everything about gold…..gold (for me) is static, it doesn’t go up and I doesn’t go down….it’s not an investment it’s a store of wealth. Now from time to time because we all measure it using our pretend fiat currencies and it appears as though gold is moving but actually it’s our perspective that changes. Gold is the rock sticking out of the river…..it stays solid….however we are all viewing it from our various water levels (dollar, pound, yen, euro etc) swishing around the rock….and sometimes it may even be the rock is underwater…but the reality is the rock hasn’t moved…it’s the rivers water level that’s move. Now I appreciate gold can fall in and out of fashion…..so really I am talking about over decades. So if someone has more than enough money to live on for the rest of their lives some should be stored in the security of gold. Then if the wheels fall of fiat then at least they have retained some wealth. I am not a gold bug but rather would rather hold 10% of wealth in gold…..just in case. I imagine those with huge wealth holding do this…😉👍

I don’t think we have opposing views ie ‘they always have enough money’ isn’t my actual belief but rather their answer ie they believe they will always have enough money I think many would like to believe they will see sense and realise there isn’t enough money first….whereas I think they would rather have wars, famine and keep printing until the machines break and everything fails. They only stop then because there is not longer a choice. By which time if the puppets in power get this right….they and their families will have moved on.

Agree…..but I never ask ‘what more can they do’ because that just encourages them to think of some other daft scheme to keep prices high. Never underestimate just how far TPTB will go to kick the can…there is always money for props, face masks and war. Yellen said last we ‘we can afford two wars’……oh course she can, it’s not her money. A few props here and there can always be found…..so when this bubble (not just property) does pop (and it will) it will be biblical. The million dollar question of course is when? 😉

With unprecedented sustained ‘government propped’ price growth over the past 30 years and an equally concerted effort to reduce input costs (exporting inflation to the East) this has been a great opportunity for developers large and small. Now the dial is turning and it’s not just property…….there will be a lag but the whole system of borrowed money, large deficits, exporting manufacturing, importing cheap materials is shifting. All the arrows are now pointing in the other direction….Rome lost its empire by over stretching its military and its influence, diluting the value of its money and its happened with every empire since. The choice is simple….cut costs, improve manufacturing and manage things like a household budget when we only spend money based on what we earn, and that includes the governments. However, without exception in EVERY single instance they take the easy option….kick the can, until the whole system fails. The system is already beginning to fail….one of the first signals is often war and media control. Empty buildings like this will increase….price falls may well be hidden somewhat with inflation but they will fall. Interesting times ahead.

And if even the hairdresser knows…..imagine all the things we don’t know. 🤢

Thanks guys, I have read a fair bit and I think your answers summarise nicely what I am finding....when its on 20 pages I just keep thinking is that it? Money/Currency itself is a really tricky subject i.e. as opposed to finance which makes more sense. But when its simplified like in your response it actually makes more sense. Difficult to replicate and wider acceptance are really important. Its now a call for me as to whether I believe BTC will be 'the one' or whether it will be superseded or governments try to intervene. I mean that in the same context as with anything at the moment and I mean absolutely everything (oil, gas, shares, gold, currency, telecoms, wars, lockdowns) knowing what should happen and what will happen due to government corruption and manipulation are very different things.

Lots of blame, lots of division driven by the media puppets in turn driven by political puppets…..woke agenda, climate change emphasis, Russia, immigration, people wanting wage rises, who going to win strictly etc and it’s to ensure we don’t hang leaders from lampposts (again)… This is just water running downhill, it’s nature….fiat currencies don’t work forever, they work long enough to ensure those in power do well during their lifetimes and maybe their kids. Leverage was a great tool….but you have to respect the debt or it will bite you on the arse. Yellen this week says ‘we can afford 2 wars’….she of course means ‘you guys can pay for it’….Roman empire overstretched its military and watered down its money…lather rinse repeat many times over since then. Eventually we have a choice of returning to basic housekeeping ie tax pays for what we spend, and what we spend is productive…..or we just keep printing more money until collapse. History proves every single time….they will print until the machine breaks.

I am a Bitcoin sceptic but completely understand and agree the general concept that fiat is doomed. So I moved into commodities, energy, inflation protected equities, some geopolitical investments in parts of the world I believe will do ‘fairly well’ and have sold two properties. My investments are doing splendidly but I have some genuine concerns over the financial system and even ownership rights of equities….and am looking at assets outside the financial systems. ie art and gold. These assets are NOT investments they are a pure hedge against inflation and quite happy to lose 20/30/40/50% if cash loses 99% So….as a Bitcoin sceptic is there something really brief that explains to me why Bitcoin can’t or won’t be replaced. Gold can’t be made…I tried it, didn’t work😆, but I understand it… pros and cons. So this isn’t a Gold v Bitcoin v art question. It isn’t a challenge but it’s a genuine question looking for a simplistic answer as to how the non tangible (as I see it) Bitcoin is worth its £21k. What’s to stop a new similar currency to be developed….and the ‘following’ for Bitcoin shift I absolutely understand central bank digital isn’t even nearly Bitcoin….it will just get ‘printed’ even faster than paper money. So I know the faults of the other options it’s just trying to understand that Bitcoin is the answer I am here because some of the macros guys I do respect (oil specialists) do reference Bitcoin a fair bit….so I need to understand it. However answers tend to be defensive, dismissive or 20 pages long. I may need to read the 20 pages but it isn’t Bitcoin I have the issue with….I think it’s the replacement that might be developed and supersede it (if that makes sense)

If the current WW3 moves from financial (and I hope it doesn’t) to actual then some will still blame numerous culprits as identified by MSM. It’s a big world out there, bigger than the Brexit side issue….won’t matter which puppets we have in power in the UK our path is already laid out. Countries that have and utilise their natural resources and/or produce stuff will strengthen. Those without natural resources and consume stuff are on borrowed money and borrowed time. So not to worry….a few globalists (East and West) are looking to sort it all out for us, directly or by proxy….I hope they fail otherwise 🚀🚀

Her pauses….quite, great, yes, right, okay She hasn’t a clue what she really needs to do but to her was listening to an old man ranting on about not buying stuff….he clearly doesn’t understand. Great effort and language by him though but I doubt it gets through to more than 10% In the UK student loans and HTB are pure evil making the young numb to debt. The government borrows and it’s ok, so it expects everyone to get suckered into borrowing and feel it be ok. Rates rising….little pause yesterday by BoE and even a false glimmer of lowering inflation but real world economics are kicking in.* *You can’t spend more than you earn and you can’t consume more than you produce. Japan survived 30years only because it had a surplus balance sheet….the UK, US and EU don’t. So inflation and interest rates will go back up (million dollar question is when) and debt will hurt and chickens will come home to roost. I have used debt but kept it on a tight leash. I guess living through 1991/4 property crash and seeing what happens to people who aren’t concentrating does that to you. GLA….we will all need it.

Might be a cleverer rationale than the dim witted policymakers original thought of...but its a good point, well made.

Agree. Just the government debt is unsustainable. I believe we will witness something our parents and many grandparents never went through….end of empire scenario. The US are taking back manufacturing from China (obviously) and Europe (slightly less obviously). They have land, energy, half decent demographics, resources they will be fine….maybe not rulers of the world but rulers of the West. I think many of the BRICs will be worse off too….but fine. They weather storms fairly well and have stuff people need. My concern is piggy in the middle, wokey, virtue signalling EU and UK trying to follow what’s going on whilst paying farmers not to farm and shutting down energy production without replacements. It’s starting to dawn on some but those debts are just rising and rising. The worry comes when paper money just isn’t worth trading with for food, energy, commodities etc….it’s working out what we have to offer. As for the private leveraged speculation we had some great examples during Covid loan fiasco….then I am not convinced we will pull through intact. Now, timing before collapse…..well if I knew that I could make a fortunate. My reckoning is 6 months to 12 years.

The pollution gushing into our rivers highlight they don’t want to protect the environment….just the bits that work well financially and politically for the elites. Net zero conferences attended by leaders in private jets and 4x4 limos make a mockery…..what they really mean is we don’t want the little guy using energy because we need it. I am not a climate denier but I think TPTB have no ones best interests at heart except their own. If the environment was the key objective this wouldn’t be looking at 2m rental homes….it would be all 25m homes, supermarkets, factories, airports, offices etc etc

Higher rates (well normal interest rates) changes everything. I have developed and sold properties in the past and have held some to spread CGT allowances. Now waiting as tenants to move on…then sell. So leveraged landlords are knackered but they have been all along. Hoping rates would stay low is like walking into a casino and hoping the ball lands on red every time. At some point you lose and that is happening now. What is interesting though is the impact on the unleveraged. I sold (ie completed the sale) one last month and it means the money can be earn 6% in a savings account. Still less than inflation but probably better return than property at these inflated prices. No boiler, no leaks, no voids, no certificates and no work….and wrap things in an ISA using joint allowances over a few years and no tax. And 6% verses the London market is a completely difference scenario I can’t even imagine. We are selling another (an nice flat) and rather than push for £230k (comparables are £250k) we are at £219k and will take the first offer (once the market is tested) we get. I would rather have £200k cash (earning 5%) than £230/250k in a static or depreciating asset. I am only comparing against cash rates, but appreciate monies will be spread on other investments but that’s another subject on another forum😉 These are going to be interesting times…..an opportunity perhaps. 25% drops won’t be enough, that’s just precovid. I can see hefty falls proportionate to the rises, so quite geographically sensitive. Inflation makes this interesting though…whilst the West ‘pretend’ to fight inflation we need to bear in mind inflation helps hide falls in any asset prices and also erodes debt. And governments are sure in need of a solution to their debt situation. So over the cycle inflation may be in total 60% (with annual ups and downs along the way depending when elections are scheduled) and that may go some way to hide house price falls….but even if prices stay the same in that period then in real terms houses will be much more affordable. I think we will see falls in nominal and real terms just quite varied depending on how much houses have risen in the past ie geography. In answer to your question, who buys? Interestingly the viewer of my flat yesterday was a young novice investor…so they are still out there. They wanted to hold something tangible and physical in these uncertain times. I understood their point but didn’t mention commodities, gold or the fact price point on property was currently too high….I just highlighted the views overlooking the park and the new bathroom, kitchen and boiler.😉

Maybe the US have done a better job than you give them credit for. Inevitable with deficits and the direction of those deficits that a new order was needed. However the US has natural resources, land, a half decent demographic (for the West), decent military but can’t sustain its whole world position. So best to divide the world, weaken the EU (particularly those Germans) and then allow the natural divide start. Hopefully avoiding a full scale WW3 but shifting to a full scale economic war. US can the reshore manufacturing back from China to its own land, oh and quietly from Europe🤦🏻‍♂️ (and they are doing this in unprecedented amounts right now)… Result is the US will no longer be ‘world leader’ but it will remain a powerful leader of the West. In the meantime the EU (mainly Germany) can compete and try restore its own manufacturing base but using energy (provided expensively by friendly western sources🤔) or try run a manufacturing empire on windmills. Media will keep it simple…..Schofield, Celebrity shows, Royal scandal….just make sure the people aren’t looking where they need to. Let’s call it inflation rather than collapsing currencies. Putin is bad…..Xi bad…..but I don’t think there is any leader in the World who is in power to serve their country or working for a greater good. All greedy and getting as much from the system as they can. I am not pro East or West, we are past that. I am watching what they do, not what they say. Invest well……because these are going to be interesting times😉

Thanks for all the detail on this thread. I have seen an uplift in unexplained deaths (friends, family, friends of friends) and this topic grabbed my attention. Initially I put it down to people not using the NHS as much but its looking much worse than that now. I will try catch up on this thread.....but when is this going to become a decent story with some accurate reporting (using real data) by the main stream media rather than bits and pieces picked up from the internet. Increasingly the MSM are just becoming a political mouth piece for governments where power is shared and 'friends in high places' are stopping anything newsworthy and we are being spoon fed warm diarrhoea or distraction stories. Whether its missing laptops, PCP contracts to an MPs lover brothers, half reported wars, blaming over 50's (or workers) for inflation.....no MSM is offering real information and many of the public are being drawn in. We can debate some of these topics but unexplained deaths should be fairly explicit, real information should be available and the first time many begin to question the safety of a jab shouldn't be due to some seemingly mad tennis star not wanting it.

Don't believe it....they are trying to find examples to show others that going back is necessary and possible. Why go back when tax thresholds are frozen, employees fight for pay awards and yet the unproductive get 10.1%. No point....that's why many are leaving droves. This is a huge cycle and its going to get a lot worse. The government are feeding consumption rather than production, inflation will dip, the world will look rosy and then watch and wait for the surge again in inflation whilst the BoE scratches its head.

For me, gold isn’t an investment or a ticker on a screen. It’s a hedge against a falling currency…indeed a hedge against all the falling currencies which have been printed. It will only need to do its job once in my lifetime. I won’t spend that time watching its price being manipulated each day but rather when a day comes that people need wheelbarrows to pay for bread I will see if the modest 10% of my wealth is now worth more than the rest of my fiat wealth. In 1922 a loaf of bread in Germany was 160 marks….in 1923 it was 200,000,000,000 Marks by late 1923. They call this inflation but it’s devaluation of a worthless currency. The US has printed more dollars in the last 3 years than in their entire history with almost no impact……yet. Gold will rise but only because everything will rise verses out currencies. Ie more ‘printed’ currency becomes worth less than before it was created. Food up 18% last year….who would have thunked that 3 years ago. Watching with interest….timing this will be impossible. Could be next week or 2030…..but my guess is somewhere in between.

I have been off this forum a while. I do bob in every couple of months….interesting thread. I believe we are heading for a time (maybe a year or maybe 5 years) when our beliefs, our politics, knowing and sometime disagreeing what we ‘should’ do will be set aside. As more people leave the workforce (including over 50’s), government and personal debt increase, the inflation makes its impact over the next 5/6 years it will become a question of maths not politics….that’s where it always ends up. Whether it’s the IMF intervention, a conflict, civil unrest etc Less paying in, aging population, benefits, old age pension, civil service pensions increase with inflation but productive workers have to fight for 5/6/7% pay awards….it won’t add up. Many modern economies which spend more than they earn are on borrowed time. It’s a worry for those in power to see which countries are in surplus and where the power is drifting. It’s a cycle and normally joined with some diversions will keep the public from seeing what is happening or give them someone else to blame. My guess would be the Middle East could be the new enemy soon…not sure yet, we haven’t decided just yet Only thing now is to financially position myself well and worry less about what the governments of the world should be doing, history shows us they won’t do it. We are in a canoe at the top of Niagara Falls and peddling to stop falling….and even if my ‘theoretical political’ party of choice get in they will just turn the canoe nose first. Lesson this last year is to watch what they do…..ignore what they say. Appreciate some people on here still care (and disagree) and I don’t criticise that…..rather I am saying regardless of who is now in power and what we do…it’s already too late. 😉

Good post…and a reliance of a true market. Nah, ditched capitalism and socialism decades ago….now it’s either a choice of dumb (corruption) and dumber (pretend divisive wokism) with all sides corrupt. Tax breaks for over 50’s whilst kids have to pay £40k to go to Uni….yeah, sure. Income tax reduction for under 50’s. Looks like a great headline….more divide and conquer on something that won’t happen but keeps us plebs fighting amongst ourselves. Just watch what they do……not what the say or even pretend to say. Benefits and pensions up with inflation….yet the workers (who pay for this and are our future) fighting for housing, pay awards and having tax thresholds limited . Hands up who wants to work and pay for those who don’t work. Spent the last 12 months studying history of geopolitics, demographic changes, reserve currency cycles, macro economics etc…..and when it comes time to sort this out, cut spending, reward productivity, back to real basics….’they’ (East/West/Left/Right) always just double down, print more money and/or escalate wars and take what they can before it implodes. Hopefully I am wrong but history suggests otherwise. At least assets prices should become more affordable….apart from real stuff like food, energy and commodities of course. (Ignore the blips downwards…that’s just so some of us can make some money on the journey😉) My only suggestion is to look at what the news is telling us and don’t focus on if it’s true but ask why they are telling you this. Tick, tock….tick tock. Not long now.

Private sector yep, but private sector pensions in payment are not funded directly by tax payers so either way that’s a separate pot. It is the public sector civil service and many public sector pensions are going up 10.1%….yummy. All being paid for by the current workers through tax….and that includes those still working in the public sector. This may be changing for those on new schemes for those poor young new public sector employees…..and all the more reason for the oldies to leave work quickly before the government change the terms of old pensions. Maybe, but that still doesn’t encourage anyone back. France and Germany have lower thresholds @ 10k ish but their rates then kick in at lower 11% and 14%. I am not checking anymore countries. The point is people are leaving work….they need to make work pay better otherwise not working becomes a viable option. Wages have eroded over the last few decades relative to assets under a globalist scheme to benefit asset owners (of which by the way I am certainly one)…..hey, if labour isn’t worth much then don’t expect people to give up their time to provide it. We need to reassess the true value of labour….it’s valuable and without the balance is starting to wobble.

Yep, wage suppression kills work. State Pensions, Public Sector pensions (even taken early) and benefits all up with inflation.....however those in work are fighting to try and keep pace. If those earning and paying for benefits and public sector increases at inflation busting 11% rises don't get those rises we tax them more...ie tax thresholds are held back etc. And the reward for working is lowered. Decades of importing cheap wages (globally not literally), cheap manufactured products etc instead of building an infrastructure of energy, transport and industry are catching up with us and many western countries. The wealthy have done well and left those working with a sh1t sandwich. Easiest way for some to get near inflation pay rises, avoid IHT, avoid care home fees and avoid an early stress related illness is to leave work. MOT....b1Jgger off, rocket science this is not