Confusion of VIs Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 30 minutes ago, kzb said: Where are the Treasury models forecasting the economic effects of each party's proposals 15 years hence? How could the Treasury produce them when its own Brexit forecasts are being supressed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 41 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: If the IFS report is correct that isn't an available choice. Boris won't have any money for improving public services as all of the available cash (or more accurately credit) is required to pay for the actual implementation of Brexit and to offset the impact of reduced receipts and increased spending caused by the economy being significantly smaller that the forecasts on which medium term government spending plans have been based. Realistically if you want better public services you need to vote for Labour, taking the risk it all ends in tears. The only party with reasonably credible spending plans were the Lib Dems, The IFS thought that their assumption that cancelling Brexit would produce a £50bn remain dividend was fairly conservative (They thought that around 60% of the loss of forecast output following the vote would be recovered). My guess is the Tories are a lot closer to realism than Labour. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50545673 Labours colour is red. Pretty appropriate. It's interesting the article mentions about there potentially not being enough capacity in the economy to soak up all the money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: How could the Treasury produce them when its own Brexit forecasts are being supressed. What about all the other modellers then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simhadri Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/05/general-election-2019-opinion-polls-latest-odds-uk-labour-conservative/ Opinion polls so far show the Conservative Party still in front, with a 10-point lead over Labour. However, with one week until election day there is still time for public opinion to shift - just as it did away from Theresa May in 2017. Labour have been steadily narrowing the gap with the Tories, in-part thanks to a relatively popular manifesto, but continue to suffer from the on-going accusations of anti-Semitism which are plaguing both party and leader. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said: Very likely, although I'm hoping that one or two skeletons will fall out of BJs closet in the final days before polling day. Would have to be very bad, link to JE/Prince Andrew level stuff to make any difference now, his "Bad Boy" image is what is getting him votes, not losing them. Edited December 5, 2019 by dances with sheeple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 17 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said: Would have to be very bad, link to JE/Prince Andrew level stuff to make any difference now, his "Bad Boy" image is what is getting him votes, not losing them. Johnson has the advantage of going in to the election with that image anyway, so there's less room for using it to undermine him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Riedquat said: Johnson has the advantage of going in to the election with that image anyway, so there's less room for using it to undermine him. Exactly, but pull out a really bad skeleton on JC and it could be a real vote loser because he is portrayed as trying to make himself part of a higher moral standard than the likes of BJ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said: Exactly, but pull out a really bad skeleton on JC and it could be a real vote loser because he is portrayed as trying to make himself part of a higher moral standard than the likes of BJ? Agree, he's got much more to lose. Johnson could probably shrug most things off unless they're really serious criminal accusations, Corbyn doesn't have that luxury, although he could potentially get lucky if something did turn up by painting it as nothing more than a Conservative smear campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said: Would have to be very bad, link to JE/Prince Andrew level stuff to make any difference now, his "Bad Boy" image is what is getting him votes, not losing them. Nah. If the Tories win it'll be down to the bubble of phantom equity in the housing market. Again. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Ten more years of hpi? https://institute.global/insight/renewing-centre/uk-general-election-2019-housing-steps-right-direction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 You would have thought that if someone had something on Johnson then they would have come forward by now. After all he has held a number of high profile roles. He hasn't bought his family/relationships into the campaign or tried to portray himself as a conventional family man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 3 hours ago, Bruce Banner said: I just ignore anything that is not directly related to Brexit and concentrate on preventing a Tory majority. I suspect everyone else does too, at least the 50+% who want to remain in the EU. I think you dramatically overstate how much people care about politics - Around 30% of adults won’t even bother to vote in Tu e election. Hardly any will attempt to change anyone else’s views. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, scottbeard said: I think you dramatically overstate how much people care about politics - Around 30% of adults won’t even bother to vote in Tu e election. Hardly any will attempt to change anyone else’s views. Whoosh... that was the point flying over your head . Context is everything, read the post mine was replying to. Edited December 5, 2019 by Bruce Banner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Whoosh... that was the point flying over your head . Read the post mine was replying to. Ok makes sense now fonts look weird on this phone so it’s hard to read - usually read HPC on a desktop PC but bored in traffic now (not driving!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 1 minute ago, scottbeard said: Ok makes sense now fonts look weird on this phone so it’s hard to read - usually read HPC on a desktop PC but bored in traffic now (not driving!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 5 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: What I don't understand is why the Tories aren't making more of Corbyns tax raises and spending policy. It's batshit. Brexiteers could not give a toss about the hundreds of billions of damage that Brexit will cause and Remainers see that the money saved by remaining would easily pay for Corbyns wildest spending. Given that he will be restrained from spending it by reality and practicality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Peter Hun said: Brexiteers could not give a toss about the hundreds of billions of damage that Brexit will cause and Remainers see that the money saved by remaining would easily pay for Corbyns wildest spending. Given that he will be restrained from spending it by reality and practicality. Great don't worry about voting for Corbyn because he won't actually be able to do what he says he's going to do. We sit on a shakey perch between the Brexit abyss on one side, economic armageddon on the other. Or at least that's what some people think anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 26 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: Great don't worry about voting for Corbyn because he won't actually be able to do what he says he's going to do. We sit on a shakey perch between the Brexit abyss on one side, economic armageddon on the other. Or at least that's what some people think anyway. Actually, we sit on a shaky perch between a BJ majority government and something more acceptable. How could anyone even consider voting for that hateful toad and his band of toadies? Mind you, they voted for Blair in their droves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 21 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Actually, we sit on a shaky perch between a BJ majority government and something more acceptable. How could anyone even consider voting for that hateful toad and his band of toadies? Mind you, they voted for Blair in their droves. Is there still a chance of Boris losing his seat, that would make for a brilliant TV moment. Although I suppose the joy would be somewhat tempered by worry about which of the basket of deplorables would be up next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 23 hours ago, thehowler said: How did I deliver Boris when I was the first on here to back May's deal? I didn't get what I wanted. And you fought to remain, I guess, destroyed May and you ended up with Boris as your PM. Reap what you sow. And I voted remain, dugs. But you don't believe any of it, do you? You think I must be lying. Because I don't think like you. Your post drips of the same sentiment I hear from people trying to excuse their behaviour. It is along the lines of "I wasn't a racist but you made me one by make me live near brown people". I don't believe you voted remain because every single post of yours drips with thinly disguised anti EU innuendo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 25 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: Is there still a chance of Boris losing his seat, that would make for a brilliant TV moment. Although I suppose the joy would be somewhat tempered by worry about which of the basket of deplorables would be up next. There is always a chance. In the current betting odds it doesn't look likely though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 10 hours ago, crouch said: The point is there's no need to be more specific; the mere fact that any trading stance defined by the EU in relation to third parties mandates the maintenance of the CAP which means that the interests of many members will be compromised. It doesn’t mean any such thing, and it’s telling that you resorted to talking about an internal EU policy, not trade policy with third parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said: It doesn’t mean any such thing, and it’s telling that you resorted to talking about an internal EU policy, not trade policy with third parties. Of course it's telling; that was my point; the internal dynamics within the EU and the compromises required to achieve a common position in relation to third parties will almost certainly require members to make concessions. The definition of the word compromise is agreement by mutual concession. If there are no other parties there is no need to make the same concession and the scope of the agreement is likely to be much smaller in any case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 30 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: In the current betting odds it doesn't look likely though. Whats that got to do with it? He isn't in a safe seat and its basically London - fully aware what a arsehole he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, crouch said: Of course it's telling; that was my point; the internal dynamics within the EU and the compromises required to achieve a common position in relation to third parties will almost certainly require members to make concessions. The definition of the word compromise is agreement by mutual concession. If there are no other parties there is no need to make the same concession and the scope of the agreement is likely to be much smaller in any case. Do you think Essex agricultural interests are compromised by being in the UK? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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