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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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10 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

And you, obviously, want us to fall under their influence even more. Trump lover you must be.

You can't resist it can you? I make a simple statement of fact and this means that I want even more US influence and am a lover of DT. Quote me where I've indicated these beliefs because neither is true.

12 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You said that, not me. Your black and white world again. We are running a surplus with the USA, they will want to claw some of that back.... it's pretty obvious to most, except to you of course.

Will they? Evidence please. The UK is way down the list of countries with a trade surplus with the US. Trade takes place because of mutual advantage not with the idea of "clawing some of that back"; that is a simpleton's idea which of course you believe.

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2 hours ago, thehowler said:

You trusted Cameron then, and didn't think he was self serving? Right.

You think Blair had just cause to go into Iraq?

You agreed with the Falklands war?

And when given a bit of responsibility how did things go fir BJ? For example his spell as Foreign Secretary ....

Anyway you’ve got this backwards. BJ is coming into his premiership at the point in the cycle he really should be sacked.

Its like the Picture of Dorian Gray story. When Blair and Thatcher got into power it took a while for people to notice the ‘painting in the attic’.  Actually it’s probably always this way.


Except now -  we have the paining in all it’s  decrepit corrupt glory front and centre and people still can’t see it, or in your case defend it, and will even vote for it...

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

You can't resist it can you? I make a simple statement of fact and this means that I want even more US influence and am a lover of DT. Quote me where I've indicated these beliefs because neither is true.

You stated that we are under the influency of the US already. I am saying that it is possible to be further under their influence and that putting outselves in a desperate position will, IMO make this more likely. There is no doubt that we want, ney, need a trade deal with the US post Brexit, that puts us in a vulnerable position,

1 hour ago, crouch said:

Will they? Evidence please. The UK is way down the list of countries with a trade surplus with the US. Trade takes place because of mutual advantage not with the idea of "clawing some of that back"; that is a simpleton's idea which of course you believe.

You really are this naive if you think that politics will not get in the way of pure mutual benefit. The US will see us as a sitting duck. The US will see the EU as wounded. IMO, they will take advantage, politically and economically.

 

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why would you have expected it to, those tariffs were imposed as part of an ongoing WTO trade dispute process.  The items that tariffs were applied on were selected to cause exactly the reaction you have demonstrated.

The USA's support for Brexit is purely aimed at weakening a competing trade block so that it can achieve more favourable "America First" trade terms, it's strange that you seem to think this is in the UK's interest. 

NB Next year the WTO will rule on tariffs that can be applied by the EU in respect of illegal state subsidies received by Boeing after which both sides will hopefully net off the tariffs and settle this long running dispute..        

I didn't, IMHAL did. Membership of the EU bloc has not helped Scottish whisky producers at all in regards these tariffs.

I didn't say that I thought the USA's support for Brexit was in the UK's interest. If you read my posts, I have always said that I can't see any benefit to small/medium companies from a US trade deal.

There's a lot more going on with the US/EU trade positioning than the aircraft subsidies. EU car manufacturers are already investing more in the US in an attempt to obviate any need for auto tariffs. There will be fresh moves towards an EU/US trade deal - including health provision, I'd imagine - regardless of our manner of leaving the EU.

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16 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You stated that we are under the influency of the US already. I am saying that it is possible to be further under their influence and that putting outselves in a desperate position will, IMO make this more likely. There is no doubt that we want, ney, need a trade deal with the US post Brexit, that puts us in a vulnerable position,

I take it then that you can't find evidence that I want even more influence from the US and am a fan of DT.

18 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You really are this naive if you think that politics will not get in the way of pure mutual benefit. The US will see us as a sitting duck. The US will see the EU as wounded. IMO, they will take advantage, politically and economically.

I didn't say that and nor do I believe it: I questioned the idea that a major principle of any US/UK trade deal would be the US trying "to claw things back". However, at the moment there is no trade deal and yet we have a substantial trade.

Ignoring what people say and providing answers to different questions is too obvious.

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1 hour ago, pig said:

And when given a bit of responsibility how did things go fir BJ? For example his spell as Foreign Secretary ....

Anyway you’ve got this backwards. BJ is coming into his premiership at the point in the cycle he really should be sacked.

Its like the Picture of Dorian Gray story. When Blair and Thatcher got into power it took a while for people to notice the ‘painting in the attic’.  Actually it’s probably always this way.


Except now -  we have the paining in all it’s  decrepit corrupt glory front and centre and people still can’t see it, or in your case defend it, and will even vote for it...

Public awareness and scrutiny has changed. And there's this thing called the internet. Politicians haven't changed but the available and instant info we have on them has.

And I'm not defending Boris. I just think it's ridiculous to say he's worse than many of his predecessors. Sadly any resistance to the idea that he's Satan incarnate prompts outbursts and allegations such as yours.

As for your last sentence, are you really telling me that nobody is calling Boris out as a rogue, constantly, incessantly? I can never remember a time when a Brit PM received so much open mockery and abuse. You're doing it yourself in your post, but you still say people can't see it. Are you seriously suggesting Boris hasn't come in for intense, unremitting flak in this campaign and long before it?

Even many of the people who intend to vote for Boris come out with the same patter you do...that's the real mystery. It's a measure of how dire things are.

Edited by thehowler

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25 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Public awareness and scrutiny has changed. And there's this thing called the internet. Politicians haven't changed but the available and instant info we have on them has.

And I'm not defending Boris. I just think it's ridiculous to say he's worse than many of his predecessors. Sadly any resistance to the idea that he's Satan incarnate prompts outbursts and allegations such as yours.

As for your last sentence, are you really telling me that nobody is calling Boris out as a rogue, constantly, incessantly? I can never remember a time when a Brit PM received so much open mockery and abuse. You're doing it yourself in your post, but you still say people can't see it. Are you seriously suggesting Boris hasn't come in for intense, unremitting flak in this campaign and long before it?

Even many of the people who intend to vote for Boris come out with the same patter you do...that's the real mystery. It's a measure of how dire things are.

Very true.

I think that many people at the moment is what the consider the normal and natural way of things to be under such threat that it is akin to war time. We have a rather hyperbolic thread on here about someone comparing being over sixty to being a Jew in Weimar Germany. At such times, people are happy to accept propaganda.

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Boris was chosen to be the people person, as opposed to the people's vote......'cept he needs the people's vote to vote him in.....he is Brexit, stay with the PM we have or leave for something different that is not known, tested or specific.😉

Edited by winkie

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

I take it then that you can't find evidence that I want even more influence from the US and am a fan of DT.

Does not matter what you do or do not want. IMO we will be further under the influence of the US due to to our economically weakened position...which you even agree will happen in the short to medium term.

1 hour ago, crouch said:

I didn't say that and nor do I believe it: I questioned the idea that a major principle of any US/UK trade deal would be the US trying "to claw things back". 

They will take advantage certainly. America First!

1 hour ago, crouch said:

However, at the moment there is no trade deal and yet we have a substantial trade.

Ignoring what people say and providing answers to different questions is too obvious.

Irrelevant. We are talking about a relative economic position and not a binary one.

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9 hours ago, Chunketh said:

No different to the Torys then. A vote for them is a vote for no deal, why else is the ERG so happy to support the rehashed TM deal that they hated so much?

I am almost wanting it to happen now, the spectacle will be a sight to behold. Either utterly brilliant as leave promised or utterly awful as remain promised.

Either happy with my error of judgement or happy to be correct, win win.

What I mean is that a JC No Deal will be a bigger and better spectacle, because he has waffled about a second deal/ref. for so long now, the Tories are actively seeking No Deal IMO, and maybe also JC, although as usual he doesn`t want to say this out loud.

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1 hour ago, thehowler said:

I didn't, IMHAL did. Membership of the EU bloc has not helped Scottish whisky producers at all in regards these tariffs.

I didn't say that I thought the USA's support for Brexit was in the UK's interest. If you read my posts, I have always said that I can't see any benefit to small/medium companies from a US trade deal.

There's a lot more going on with the US/EU trade positioning than the aircraft subsidies. EU car manufacturers are already investing more in the US in an attempt to obviate any need for auto tariffs. There will be fresh moves towards an EU/US trade deal - including health provision, I'd imagine - regardless of our manner of leaving the EU.

The major manufacturers were moving production into the US, and other major markets, long before Trump. The driver for this is being that the majority of added value/profit now comes from the IPR and services associated with producing a car as compared with the metal bashing and assembly.      

There might be fresh moves towards an EU/US deal but, as both are large complex economies, the potential benefits are relatively small and the obstacles to reaching a deal numerous so I wouldn't hold your breath.  The reality is that as long as the US is running a $1trillion annual deficit they will have a huge trade deficit irrespective of what deals Trump makes.   

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29 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Does not matter what you do or do not want. IMO we will be further under the influence of the US due to to our economically weakened position...which you even agree will happen in the short to medium term.

Outside the EU we will be able to conduct trade deals more tailored to our circumstances and not a compromise position forged by 28 countries. You lose the heft of the EU but gain in nimbleness and no longer having to make so many compromises. ~How this will work out remains to be seen but, as usual, you've already made your mind up about things.

33 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

They will take advantage certainly. America First!

Of course but that doesn't mean we get nothing; there are trade offs. Again, it's all done and dusted and we've failed!

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1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

What I mean is that a JC No Deal will be a bigger and better spectacle, because he has waffled about a second deal/ref. for so long now, the Tories are actively seeking No Deal IMO, and maybe also JC, although as usual he doesn`t want to say this out loud.

But JC will not get a majority, so will have parliament to contend with, whereas BJ could if we don't put a stop to his ambitions by voting tactically to get him and his cronies out.

A minority JC government, or even a minority BJ government, is less dangerous than a majority BJ government.

EK2j-VxXYAAV-QG.jpg:large

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

Outside the EU we will be able to conduct trade deals more tailored to our circumstances and not a compromise position forged by 28 countries. You lose the heft of the EU but gain in nimbleness and no longer having to make so many compromises. ~How this will work out remains to be seen but, as usual, you've already made your mind up about things.

IMO our negotiating position will have been eroded, what minor loses from taking others into account will overshadowed by what we will gain factoring in only our needs... so yes, I believe that we will lose out.

1 hour ago, crouch said:

Of course but that doesn't mean we get nothing; there are trade offs. Again, it's all done and dusted and we've failed!

See above.

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The major manufacturers were moving production into the US, and other major markets, long before Trump. The driver for this is being that the majority of added value/profit now comes from the IPR and services associated with producing a car as compared with the metal bashing and assembly.      

There might be fresh moves towards an EU/US deal but, as both are large complex economies, the potential benefits are relatively small and the obstacles to reaching a deal numerous so I wouldn't hold your breath.  The reality is that as long as the US is running a $1trillion annual deficit they will have a huge trade deficit irrespective of what deals Trump makes.   

I think you'll find new investment commitments into the US are being made right now...in line with all the job-cutting news from GM and more lately Audi, VW, Daimler and Ford (in Europe). The EU market is saturated and too cheap and as you say, there are bucks to be made in the US market. Can't but help to focus minds to have Trump mention 25-30% tariffs being applied to all EU autos...

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1 hour ago, thehowler said:

I think you'll find new investment commitments into the US are being made right now...in line with all the job-cutting news from GM and more lately Audi, VW, Daimler and Ford (in Europe). The EU market is saturated and too cheap and as you say, there are bucks to be made in the US market. Can't but help to focus minds to have Trump mention 25-30% tariffs being applied to all EU autos...

Of course investment continues but the big investments were made post 2000 as part of  a strategic push by all of the large German producers to move production to or near their largest markets. As a result of this move most have the ability to move production around significantly mitigating the impact of tariffs.  I doubt Trump even realises that many of those "German" cars he sees driving around are actually American as are many of the BMW and Mercedes driving around Europe.

The next round of investment will be driven by the move to EV's, something Trump will probably hinder by subsidising the old industries rather than investing in the new. 

Ultimately Trump's tariffs will prove futile and damage the US, albeit with plenty of collateral damage elsewhere.  

Edited by Confusion of VIs

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9 hours ago, crouch said:

As regards trade you seem to think that if we have no trade agreement there will be no trade. There are no trade agreements between the EU and China and the US.

Yes there are - the WTO.  You are so complacent that you don't recognise that political institutions don't spring out of thin air.

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5 hours ago, crouch said:

Outside the EU we will be able to conduct trade deals more tailored to our circumstances and not a compromise position forged by 28 countries. You lose the heft of the EU but gain in nimbleness and no longer having to make so many compromises. ~How this will work out remains to be seen but, as usual, you've already made your mind up about things.

Outside the EU we will have to make more compromises.  Inside the EU we can afford to sit back and expect the other side to make the compromises.

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7 hours ago, thehowler said:

Public awareness and scrutiny has changed. And there's this thing called the internet. Politicians haven't changed but the available and instant info we have on them has.

And I'm not defending Boris. I just think it's ridiculous to say he's worse than many of his predecessors. Sadly any resistance to the idea that he's Satan incarnate prompts outbursts and allegations such as yours.

As for your last sentence, are you really telling me that nobody is calling Boris out as a rogue, constantly, incessantly? I can never remember a time when a Brit PM received so much open mockery and abuse. You're doing it yourself in your post, but you still say people can't see it. Are you seriously suggesting Boris hasn't come in for intense, unremitting flak in this campaign and long before it?

Even many of the people who intend to vote for Boris come out with the same patter you do...that's the real mystery. It's a measure of how dire things are.

No, that's certainly not true.   We have his past actions and words to see that he is.

Which prior prime minister has been sacked twice for lying?

Which prior prime minister has a history that includes helping a friend arrange the beating up of a journalist?

Which prior prime minister has cheated multiple times on multiple different partners to father 5+ children?

Which prior prime minister has a similar record of deliberate dishonesty and deceit that he does?  One that is continuing on right now?

Which prior prime minister has a similar track record of making deliberately racist, misogynist, and homophobic comments to him?

Which prior prime minister has betrayed and backstabbed his/her coalition allies like he has done with the DUP?

I could go on and on and on but the list is endless.

Now here's the thing, prior prime ministers might have done one or two of these things, at least to a lesser extent.   But absolutely none of them come close to the same level of sheer horribleness and unworthiness for being our prime minister.   Not even to close to it.   What is happening here with us is no different than what happened with Americans and Trump.   Its just ignored and when called out on it his supporters make false equivalencies as you are doing.

 

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What was just posted. It's either not true, far fetched, only partially true or the public really don't give a shit. In either Boris's or Trumps case. But I don't trust Boris completely, then again is when has any government been 100% trustworthy or delivered everything they said. Exception perhaps was Thatcher.

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This has turned into actually the deluded remoaner thread rather than what happens next.  The thread where they can moan amongst themselves. Occaisonally a democratic person will chime in such as myself, but in the main we haven't got the time to debate with those who can't be helped and are incapable of rational thought on the subject of leaving the European Union

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11 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Oh put a sock in it for goodness sake. You must be working as a Gina Singh activist

There you go again, referring to Gina Miller by her maiden name. Would you do that if her maiden name was Smith ?..... Thought not!

Have you heard what Alastair Campbell has to say about tactical voting?

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

Outside the EU we will have to make more compromises.  Inside the EU we can afford to sit back and expect the other side to make the compromises.

This. It is an assertion but with sound foundation, as such it cannot be ignored or dismissed by those who seek to brush over this obvious risk. The writing is on the wall....we will have to make significantly more compromises..ergo it is highly likely that our negotiations will bear less fruit.

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And this is exactly the sort of dishonesty and deceitfulness I'm talking about.  Its not made by Johnson himself but the fish rots from the head down and so his MP's are aping him.

https://margaretbeckett.com/

A website made in the name of a prominent Labour MP by a conservative party parliamentary candidate.  Where does it mention the conservative party?  Or that he's a conservative party candidate in this GE?  

And where is the censure from the conservative party for doing this?

If you vote for them in this GE then you are normalizing this crap and god help us all, because this isn't the US where there are checks and balances to limit the power of an immoral shyster if they get their hands on the top job.

 

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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