Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

1 minute ago, doomed said:

I mean ffs. 

I am not cheering covid on. I am simply saying that there is a huge disproportionality in the response to what is happening. Yes, India are having an increase in people dying due to covid. So have most places, like us for instance who have done more than 10x worse on a per capita basis going by any figures available.

India has many problems that need dealing with, many causing much more damage than covid.

Just admit it. Then we can all move on.

[zugzwang]

1 minute ago, doomed said:

India has many problems that need dealing with, many causing much more damage than covid.

The Indian govt has declared a national emergency. Clearly you know better, some 6000 miles away having never visited the country. Perhaps you should drop them a tersely worded email correcting their error?

 

[captainb]

44 minutes ago, pig said:

Does Covid debate matter more than verbal diarrhoea lol ? In all honesty I'm not sure where to begin with this.

A disaster is beginning in India.  You and others have a bizarrely perverted problem accepting this. I mean its really strange.

Sounds like this is 'premeditated'. You're not obviously sick in the head. Its not that you don't understand simple maths. Its not that you don't understand context or can't read. 

So it has to be 'politics' ? But what kind kind of politics is desperate to fantasise away a humanitarian disaster ?

Standard lack of relative risk. If only you DID understand maths or numbers would be a start.

Don't worry every year you will be fed with a risk you can't comprehend the scale of. Often they sadly will be involve brown people if this countries media is anything to go by.

[captainb]

11 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

It is in lots of media. I would have thought that the reason would be reasonably obvious -the furnaces are not designed to run full time and would normally have a chance to  cool down. 

https://m.timesofindia.com/city/surat/gujarat-frames-of-crematorium-furnaces-melt-due-to-rush-of-bodies/amp_articleshow/82048522.cms

 

Steel melts at 1,750 C.

Wood burns at 600 C.

Unless it's a covid body burning. 

Nobody is stating India is anything other than awful situation. It's nonsense like above that drives hysteria and likes of moinsor dictator to demand his troops on the ground.

Edited April 25, 2021 by captainb

[Ah-so]

1 hour ago, captainb said:

Doesn't matter though, the aim and target market is clicks in the UK.. so more ridiculous OTT the better.

 

If I understand you correctly, the reporting of COVID-19 in India is basically massively exaggerated and blown out if all proportion. 

Indian media also seems pretty full of COVID-19 stories. 

[pig]

33 minutes ago, captainb said:

Standard lack of relative risk. If only you DID understand maths or numbers would be a start.

Don't worry every year you will be fed with a risk you can't comprehend the scale of. Often they sadly will be involve brown people if this countries media is anything to go by.

Risk lol ? Surely thats too complicated  

How about percentages/proportion. We're at 1800 deaths /million. Admittedly one of the worst in the world (unless you're part of the BJ cult) but India is merely at 80deaths / million.

So everything is fine in India yes ? I mean Japan at similar rates and they are the Covid Poster boy.

So India is super OK right ? Nothing to see here then yes ?

[CityLAD88888]

What's happening in India is tragic and a crisis and without action could get worse. However little, it's been nice to see aid from the UK, EU and elsewhere heading there, I'm sure we all have everything crossed for the people and the situation there.

With that said, I have to say the media's weaponisation of the crisis has been pretty disgusting, and ironic since any mention of the lockdown mental health crisis is met with calls of 'weaponsiation' and "you wouldn't care about mental health in normal times", which is kind of the point some are making here about infant cholera deaths. As always, intellectual consistency from the media would be nice.

It makes me laugh, there have been plenty calling out issues they feel are bigger than covid over the past year or so: BLM 'racism is the real virus', Extinction Rebellion 'climate change is the real pandemic' etc. (not necessarily points I disagree with at all), yet someone comes along and says poverty and childhood death are the real big issues in India, and everyone's jumping up and down.

[Ah-so]

33 minutes ago, captainb said:

Steel melts at 1,750 C.

Wood burns at 600 C.

Unless it's a covid body burning. 

Nobody is stating India is anything other than awful situation. It's nonsense like above that drives hysteria and likes of moinsor dictator to demand his troops on the ground.

I didn't say it melted. Steel softens and becomes weaken at 425C and will lose half of its strength at 650C. 

Load bearing steel exposed to temperatures in that range for significant periods without cooling will weaken. 

So either the Indian media is reporting factually incorrect information for unknown reasons, or your limited knowledge in this field has led you to the wrong conclusion. 

🤔

[anonguest]

45 minutes ago, captainb said:

Steel melts at 1,750 C.

Wood burns at 600 C.

Unless it's a covid body burning. 

Nobody is stating India is anything other than awful situation. It's nonsense like above that drives hysteria and likes of moinsor dictator to demand his troops on the ground.

Not so.

https://www.marlinwire.com/blog/what-is-the-melting-point-of-stainless-steel

Plus, it's the melting point so much that matters.....steel starts to lose a lot of its structural strength well below 1000 degC

Any sizeable structure made of steel would run risk of deformation/collapse/etc if subjected to temperatures less than the melting point.

[Ah-so]

2 minutes ago, CityLAD88888 said:

 yet someone comes along and says poverty and childhood death are the real big issues in India, and everyone's jumping up and down.

While I haven't intervened on this point, poverty and childhood deaths are too high in India - something we should all agree on. 

However, it is being used as nothing more than whataboutery by COVID deniers to play down the impact of the pandemic. 

If you walk through their playbook, it starts as a non-deadly disease, to something that only kills you if you are at death's door, to something that should be contextualised because it doesn't kill as many as something else in a developing country. 

[14stFlyer]

41 minutes ago, captainb said:

Steel melts at 1,750 C.

Wood burns at 600 C.

Unless it's a covid body burning. 

 

And that is your evidence for exaggerated nonsense and hysteria?  
 

You might be right for an empty casket at 600C but a human body usually burns for an hour or so at between 850 and 1250 C. 
 

Cast iron surrounds to crematoria retorts of refractory bricks might usually be expected to reach lower temperatures than this unless in continuous use. However, cast iron melting point is 

Iron, Cast

1127-1204 C

So it is clear that some damage to casings by continuous use is possible. 

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, doomed said:

The UK government didn't! They count anyone that died for any reason if they tested positive within 28 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

According to this even if you multiplied the death rate by 10 they would still be doing better than us.

And they don't count anyone who dies after day 28, even if they die gasping for breath with a positive Covid test

Are you really unable to understand that death within 28days is just a statistic that gives a roughly accurate count of short term Covid deaths.  As we understand more about the longer term effects it is looking likely that the numbers will be revised upwards rather than down. 

[satsuma]

Hilarious listening to the monkey mind men bleating on about what they can’t understand, they feel smart using google to look for information but it’s too much for the pea brains.  600 degrees this, 1200 degrees that, they hope to be right about something, doesn’t really matter what the point was, just let them be in the right.   Meanwhile a country is overwhelmed by a mindless virus and we all look on.  

[captainb]

25 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

If I understand you correctly, the reporting of COVID-19 in India is basically massively exaggerated and blown out if all proportion. 

Indian media also seems pretty full of COVID-19 stories. 

No. Covid is taking an horrible toll on India. Just look at the deaths thousands per day.

The media however are reporting as if by the end of 2021, the cremotria have melted due to all the deaths, nothing else matter just think of covid. Bodies lining the street, can't move for them.

In reality covid won't hit top 5 causes of death in India for 2021. 

The vast majority of cremotoriums will cope with an increase in useage of under 5% otherwise they are frankly not fit for purpose and all the rest of the hyperbole will disappear.

 

You are just lapping up any form of disaster porn. The media has spent 12months feeding covid is the only risk that matters and when it dissolves from the UK they need to find another source. Was France for all of a week until it became clear Paris wasn't emptying the crypts in anticipation.

[captainb]

28 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

I didn't say it melted. Steel softens and becomes weaken at 425C and will lose half of its strength at 650C. 

Load bearing steel exposed to temperatures in that range for significant periods without cooling will weaken. 

So either the Indian media is reporting factually incorrect information for unknown reasons, or your limited knowledge in this field has led you to the wrong conclusion. 

🤔

Nah you are right. Cremotoriums can't cope with burning bodies. It's why they designed them according and why all cremotoriums have ceased working after burning bodies rather than references to "some" from an "unknown source".

 

[Ah-so]

4 minutes ago, captainb said:

No. Covid is taking an horrible toll on India. Just look at the deaths thousands per day.

The media however are reporting as if by the end of 2021, the cremotria have melted due to all the deaths, nothing else matter just think of covid. Bodies lining the street, can't move for them.

In reality covid won't hit top 5 causes of death in India for 2021. 

The vast majority of cremotoriums will cope with an increase in useage of under 5% otherwise they are frankly not fit for purpose and all the rest of the hyperbole will disappear.

 

You are just lapping up any form of disaster porn. The media has spent 12months feeding covid is the only risk that matters and when it dissolves from the UK they need to find another source. Was France for all of a week until it became clear Paris wasn't emptying the crypts in anticipation.

Quite clearly crematoriums in certain areas are dealing with far more than a 5% increase in deaths. Read the reports instead of using deliberately manipulating data to come up with absurd numbers like 5%. When deaths are concentrated in either a particular time or place, you get specific pressures. It is ridiculous to average them out over a nation over a year. 

[captainb]

2 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

Quite clearly crematoriums in certain areas are dealing with far more than a 5% increase in deaths. Read the reports instead of using deliberately manipulating data to come up with absurd numbers like 5%. When deaths are concentrated in either a particular time or place, you get specific pressures. It is ridiculous to average them out over a nation over a year. 

2% would be over the nation. Of course if you read reports would be 200%. But what's context? Never sold a paper.

Will wait see what excess deaths are for 2021. I'm sure yourself and the daily mail will have them at double the normal deaths? After all the cremotria have melted and there are piles of bodies on the street are there not? Or will the hyperbole just be the sale of clicks or papers.

 

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by captainb

[Ah-so]

1 minute ago, captainb said:

Nah you are right. Cremotoriums can't cope with burning bodies. It's why they designed them according and why all cremotoriums have ceased working after burning bodies rather than references to "some" from an "unknown source".

 

As I and others noted steel weakens at these temperatures. You already demonstrated that you had limited understanding by quoting the melting point. 

The difference is the sustained period at which they are on, rather than being allowed to cool down. If they are operating in a way they were not designed for then it is hardly surprising that problems occur. 

But that runs contrary to your narrative that it is all vastly exaggerated. 

[Ah-so]

5 minutes ago, captainb said:

2% would be over the nation. Of course if you read reports would be 200%. But what's context? Never sold a paper.

Will wait see what excess deaths are for 2021. I'm sure yourself and the daily mail will have them at double the normal deaths? After all the cremotria have melted and there are piles of bodies on the street are there not? Or will the hyperbole just be the sale of clicks or papers.

 

 

What is the excess deaths in particular regions compared to a typical April? I don't know, but from the reports coming out, it is probably pretty high. 

Over the course of a year and across the whole country, it could be quite modest, but we won't know until this plays out. 

[captainb]

16 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

What is the excess deaths in particular regions compared to a typical April? I don't know, but from the reports coming out, it is probably pretty high. 

Over the course of a year and across the whole country, it could be quite modest, but we won't know until this plays out. 

10m people die a year. It's a vast country. 

Your base case is 10\12 which is very approx 800k or so for the month of April. (I get seasonality but no idea to be frank what it is for April).

Over 4x the totality of the covid deaths reporting so far, in one month. I'd suggest the current count is low as anyone who has died from covid recently or anything to be frank hasn't been reported but hard to see how you get upto a big % on top.

As I've stated covid is clearly inflecting a terrible toll on India but from the media reports you lot are lapping up it's the plague of Justinian and you can't move for piles of dead bodies with 20% of the population dead.

At the end of 2021 unless the disease changes (let's hope not) and kills young people in volume it won't be in the top 5 causes of death for India for the year.

In 2022 if covid doesn't exist nobody will give a monkeys about the top 5 causes of death in India in the UK. As it won't sell clicks you guys are lapping up.

Just like how earlier in the year 20x the number per /m died in Mexico from covid. No media. No melting cremotoriums. No mass piles of bodies on the street.

Must have been awful no doubt but so far the only difference between the two sadly comes down to slow news day so need some hyperbole to fill it.

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by captainb

[dances with sheeple]

2 hours ago, Huggy said:

Ooh no 🤮 Just by the looks of her I can tell immediately she can't be trusted to enact the democratic will of the people unless it was with the 'correct' result.

Who is she anyway?

She told the country that she was a future PM I seem to remember. At that point she jumped the shark and did a double back flip into oblivion.

[doomed]

7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

And they don't count anyone who dies after day 28, even if they die gasping for breath with a positive Covid test

Are you really unable to understand that death within 28days is just a statistic that gives a roughly accurate count of short term Covid deaths.  As we understand more about the longer term effects it is looking likely that the numbers will be revised upwards rather than down. 

I'm sorry but you are wrong. I know the media constantly tells you anyone that questions the covid hysteria is a moron, but all sense of proportionality has been lost. 

Do you really think they don't test covid positive patients again within 28 days of a previous positive test? Really? The average age of death alone should indicate that the numbers are getting juiced.

[nightowl]

8 hours ago, captainb said:

You are just lapping up any form of disaster porn. 

Some people here must be risking blindness from all that 'lapping up' of the doom porn🥺 maybe larger fonts will help🤔

[nightowl]

53 minutes ago, doomed said:

I'm sorry but you are wrong. I know the media constantly tells you anyone that questions the covid hysteria is a moron, but all sense of proportionality has been lost.

Isn't there a saying it's "easier to trick someone than convince them they have been tricked" or something like that?  The anger and bitterness some get here says that's a spot on observation.

[Ah-so]

1 hour ago, nightowl said:

Some people here must be risking blindness from all that 'lapping up' of the doom porn🥺 maybe larger fonts will help🤔

On the larger fonts point, it happens when working on a phone and copying from one tab to another - the font often pastes very large and it is very difficult to change. It is a software issue, not that users are increasing the size of the font for added impact.