Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Riedquat]

5 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

That goes without saying. If BJ were to say that his hair was a mess I would believe him. If he were to say that he didn't say the bodies piling up thing, I wouldn't.

On the former, definitely. On the latter I'd certainly be open to the idea that he did say it even though he says he didn't, but I wouldn't assume he was lying either just because he denies it. Plenty of people wanting to make all sorts of accusations stick and they won't all be true even if many are.

Anyway I like a government like that. The more time they spend on this sort of bickering, accusation, and generally having to devote themselves to getting out of a hole (or digging themselves deeper in) the less time they've got for messing up everything else.

Edited April 27, 2021 by Riedquat

[winkie]

1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

That goes without saying. If BJ were to say that his hair was a mess I would believe him. If he were to say that he didn't say the bodies piling up thing, I wouldn't.

He might have said it, he didn't mean it......he says silly things sometimes without thinking, he therefore will do silly things without thinking........ perhaps he thinks it will get away with it, Boris is used to getting away with things all his life including brushing his hair.....his personality, we voted for him.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

India's Covid second wave is driven by 'far more infectious and far more lethal' variant, doctor warns as bodies are lined up in the street for cremation and court calls for officials to face MURDER charges

• Dr Zarir Udwadia, a physician in hard-hit Mumbai, believes India's brutal Covid second wave is being driven by 'a far more infectious and probably far more lethal' variant of the disease
• It has caused cases and deaths to soar, with another 323,000 infections and 2,700 fatalities reported today
• Dr Udwadia blamed 'complacency' for the crisis and urged countries to send vaccines to protect people 
• Meanwhile judges in Chennai said officials should face murder charges for failing to enforce social distancing

[yelims]

https://montrealgazette.com/news/world/pfizer-is-testing-a-pill-that-if-successful-could-become-first-ever-home-cure-for-covid-19
 

pfizer developing a pill against Covid in meantime

[Locke]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

The attempt to smear Ferguson's reputation

?

[zugzwang]

10 minutes ago, Locke said:

?

http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2021/february/26/imperial-folly-neil-ferguson-has-no-qualification-in-biological-sciences/

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/06/would-buy-a-used-computer-model-from-bonking-boffin-neil-ferguson/

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/05/06/neil-ferguson-the-difference-between-public-interest-journalism-and-a-politically-motivated-smear/

[Locke]

25 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2021/february/26/imperial-folly-neil-ferguson-has-no-qualification-in-biological-sciences/

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/06/would-buy-a-used-computer-model-from-bonking-boffin-neil-ferguson/

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/05/06/neil-ferguson-the-difference-between-public-interest-journalism-and-a-politically-motivated-smear/

Ehhh. I don't believe in lockdowns, but he is the genesis of them in this country, so he should damn well abide by them.

 

The actual reason to impugn him is that his predicitions have historically and for CCPV turned out to be wildly inaccurate alarmism and were used to justify enormous governmental overreach with his enthusiastic support.

[pig]

20 minutes ago, Locke said:

Ehhh. I don't believe in lockdowns, but he is the genesis of them in this country, so he should damn well abide by them.

 

The actual reason to impugn him is that his predicitions have historically and for CCPV turned out to be wildly inaccurate alarmism and were used to justify enormous governmental overreach with his enthusiastic support.

So there is no reason to impugn him then ?

[zugzwang]

5 minutes ago, Locke said:

Ehhh. I don't believe in lockdowns, but he is the genesis of them in this country, so he should damn well abide by them.

 

The actual reason to impugn him is that his predicitions have historically and for CCPV turned out to be wildly inaccurate alarmism and were used to justify enormous governmental overreach with his enthusiastic support.

Prof Ferguson made a personal mistake which the billionaire press sat on for five weeks in the hope of doing as much damage to the lockdown cause as possible.

Cummings behaved worse.

Ferguson's professional record is beyond reproach (below). Without his intervention Johnson's pile of bodies would now be 3x as high.

 

https://theferret.scot/fact-check-neil-ferguson-covid-19-predictions/

It is claimed he predicted in 2009 that 65,000 people would die from swine flu, but in fact only 457 lost their lives. These figures refer to the UK, where swine flu (also known as H1N1), did indeed cause 457 deaths. 

The 65,000 figure comes from a UK government announcement based on Ferguson’s modelling, and represented “reasonable worst-case estimates against which to plan” rather than predictions about the numbers of deaths.

The publication of this “worst-case scenario” was described as “unhelpful” in a report into the pandemic response, and Professor Ferguson told a 2011 UK government committee that the publicised projections did not “communicate as clearly” to the public what the likely health risks were.

 

 

[moonriver]

8 hours ago, thirdwave said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9513123/Israel-investigates-Pfizer-vaccine-recipients-reported-inflammation-heart-62-cases.html#article-9513123

Worth pointing out Israel is the only country to have vaccinated the young in enough numbers to pick up this safety signal. It would be interesting to see if this is replicated in the US now that vaccination has been extended to all over 16s. 1 in 20000 in 18-30s is a far higher risk than that for CSVT associated with AZ. Looking forward to the clamour among EU countries to ban Pfizer on the back of this...

The Pentagon is investigating cases of myocarditis found in troops afer the Moderna and Pfizer vaccine. 

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/04/26/pentagon-tracking-14-cases-of-heart-inflammation-troops-after-covid-19-shots.html

Quote

Pentagon Tracking 14 Cases of Heart Inflammation in Troops After COVID-19 Shots.....Of the 14 cases, one patient, who tested positive for COVID-19 three months ago, developed myocarditis after their first dose of vaccine. The remaining 13 patients developed myocarditis after their second vaccine doses. Eleven received the Moderna vaccine; three got Pfizer.

 

 

[pig]

2 hours ago, Riedquat said:

On the former, definitely. On the latter I'd certainly be open to the idea that he did say it even though he says he didn't, but I wouldn't assume he was lying either just because he denies it. Plenty of people wanting to make all sorts of accusations stick and they won't all be true even if many are.

Anyway I like a government like that. The more time they spend on this sort of bickering, accusation, and generally having to devote themselves to getting out of a hole (or digging themselves deeper in) the less time they've got for messing up everything else.

The simple problem is he is not an honourable man. I'm with Bruce on this in that I really struggle to believe anything he says, to the point even in situations where I can't think why he would be lying.

 

[Riedquat]

17 minutes ago, pig said:

The simple problem is he is not an honourable man. I'm with Bruce on this in that I really struggle to believe anything he says, to the point even in situations where I can't think why he would be lying.

That gives him ammunition, he can use that attitude to point out examples where people seem more out to get him than anything else.

The most successful people at being dishonest are good at making use of the truth as well.

[scottbeard]

13 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

That gives him ammunition, he can use that attitude to point out examples where people seem more out to get him than anything else.

The most successful people at being dishonest are good at making use of the truth as well.

Right - the fact that he is fundamentally untrustworthy doesn't mean that everything he says is a lie, or that everything everyone attributes to him is indeed correct.

Indeed, if someone were to say "everything Boris Johnson says is a lie" that is so patently hyperbole that it actually plays into his hands by devaluing the credibility of the person saying it.

[winkie]

2 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Right - the fact that he is fundamentally untrustworthy doesn't mean that everything he says is a lie, or that everything everyone attributes to him is indeed correct.

Indeed, if someone were to say "everything Boris Johnson says is a lie" that is so patently hyperbole that it actually plays into his hands by devaluing the credibility of the person saying it.

That could mean the lies could be the truth, and the truth be lies...... therefore don't know what to believe......so don't listen to any of it, no credibility.

Edited April 27, 2021 by winkie

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

52 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Right - the fact that he is fundamentally untrustworthy doesn't mean that everything he says is a lie, or that everything everyone attributes to him is indeed correct.

Indeed, if someone were to say "everything Boris Johnson says is a lie" that is so patently hyperbole that it actually plays into his hands by devaluing the credibility of the person saying it.

Generally it is only smart to lie when you gain something from doing it and the risk of being found out is small or inconsequential.

From that it follows lying all the time would be both stupid and pointless. Why would you lie when you don't need to ?

This is the party machine diktat. Both sides have them and you see them operating on here. Just repeat the same stuff again and again in the hope that people believe it to be true.

As you say though, most people see through it and it generally works against the interest of the people promoting it if pushed too far.

Personally I am not that much interested in what politicians say. They are mostly about weasel words and the best of them are economical with the truth and often extremely evasive when being held to account. I don't believe the more skillful ones are more honest. Just simply better at evading questions or dealing with the media. All of them are generally thinking how they can present things in the best light, rather than actually coming out with the facts or truth or being honest about what they think. That only happens 5 years after they are out of office and suddenly seem to develop a streak of honestly and a new ability to be frank (normally when being interviewed for a new book release). I don't see either Johnson or Starmer as conviction politicians.

I'm far more interested in what they actually do than what they say.

 

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Right - the fact that he is fundamentally untrustworthy doesn't mean that everything he says is a lie, or that everything everyone attributes to him is indeed correct.

Indeed, if someone were to say "everything Boris Johnson says is a lie" that is so patently hyperbole that it actually plays into his hands by devaluing the credibility of the person saying it.

 

Get out of here. He's Britain Trump!

Even when he gets backed into a corner over his serial untruths he'll claim someone else lied to him first!

 

[Riedquat]

2 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Personally I am not that much interested in what politicians say. They are mostly about weasel words and the best of them are economical with the truth and often extremely evasive when being held to account. I don't believe the more skillful ones are more honest. Just simply better at evading questions or dealing with the media. All of them are generally thinking how they can present things in the best light, rather than actually coming out with the facts or truth or being honest about what they think. That only happens 5 years after they are out of office and suddenly seem to develop a streak of honestly and a new ability to be frank (normally when being interviewed for a new book release). I don't see either Johnson or Starmer as conviction politicians.

There's an unpleasant vicious circle going on there where if they were more honest and open the same press and public who try to tear them apart from not being so would tear them apart for every admittance of non-perfection. We all say such honesty commands respect but the reality is that it rarely does, and unless they get caught really red-handed or push the boat out far too far politicians are more likely to get further by being evasive and concentrating on their image. It's just completely against their own interests to do otherwise, it would require an absolute saint to not have that blow up in their faces more than the evasion.

[moonriver]

18 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Posted 18 hours ago (edited)

Coronation Street’s Will Mellor left bedridden and in crippling pain after getting his coronavirus jab

Very unusual for such a high profile start to admit to the media they have vaccine side effects. With over 690.000 adverse effects currently being reported on the Yellow Card, I am sure some other celebs must have had bad side effects. 

The same report and video of Will is is also in the Independant.

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/will-mellor-covid-instagram-b1838035.html

Quote

Will Mellor says he felt ‘horrendous’ and walked ‘like an 80-year-old man’ after receiving Covid vaccine

But I can't find any mention of it on twitter.

This is one I did notice though. 

Nick Abbott from LBC said....

nick abbot@NIAbbot

My first jab was fine - no reaction at all. Had my second jab yesterday. It must have been the one with the microchip in. Didn't get a wink of sleep and now I look dreadful. THANKS A LOT BILL GATES!

And an example of a reply...

Jewish Brexit Voice =@YosefDavid·

Replying to @NIAbbot

Twitter suspension here you come...

[Bruce Banner]

1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

That gives him ammunition, he can use that attitude to point out examples where people seem more out to get him than anything else.

The most successful people at being dishonest are good at making use of the truth as well.

I think that I'm worldly wise enough to spot it if he was playing that game.

In a nutshell, what he says is what he wants to say irrespective of whether it is a lie or the truth.

He may even be one of those people who is genuinely offended if he's caught out telling a lie, because it could have been the truth.

[Riedquat]

1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

I think that I'm worldly wise enough to spot it if he was playing that game.

In a nutshell, what he says is what he wants to say irrespective of whether it is a lie or the truth.

He may even be one of those people who is genuinely offended if he's caught out telling a lie, because it could have been the truth.

I can well believe that, won't argue with it. But that does mean of course that he sometimes tells the truth (like a Terry Pratchett character who would tell the truth if it was convenient and she couldn't think of something more interesting).

[nightowl]

3 hours ago, Locke said:

Ehhh. I don't believe in lockdowns, but he is the genesis of them in this country, so he should damn well abide by them.

 

The actual reason to impugn him is that his predicitions have historically and for CCPV turned out to be wildly inaccurate alarmism and were used to justify enormous governmental overreach with his enthusiastic support.

When interviewed about his now infamous predictions in 2020 prof NF's response was something like "we didn't think we would get away with that". Make of that what you will😒

[pig]

1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

That gives him ammunition, he can use that attitude to point out examples where people seem more out to get him than anything else.

The most successful people at being dishonest are good at making use of the truth as well.

Yes I agree, but the people who still believe what he says and can't see something is seriously wrong here are completely lost and I'm not sure this 'ammo' makes a difference either way. 

I genuinely thought he'd be good at dealing with Covid if only out of self-preservation and because his success in coming out on top of Brexit and his party showed some sort of competence however narrow. I also thought the Zhagari-Ratcliffe episode was a one off gaffe. 

Turns out this 'competence' is extremely narrow, a bit weird and not only nothing to do with good governance but more to do with its opposite. 

He's probably better off  - from his perspective - close to power but where his chaos is just out of the spotlight. Because perhaps I'm over-reacting to my previous errors in judgement, but I now suspect he's a bigger mess than I'd ever properly understood.

 

 

[Bruce Banner]

Even Grant Shapps is defending BJ .

[Ah-so]

1 hour ago, moonriver said:

This is one I did notice though. 

Nick Abbott from LBC said....

nick abbot@NIAbbot

My first jab was fine - no reaction at all. Had my second jab yesterday. It must have been the one with the microchip in. Didn't get a wink of sleep and now I look dreadful. THANKS A LOT BILL GATES!

And an example of a reply...

Jewish Brexit Voice =@YosefDavid·

Replying to @NIAbbot

Twitter suspension here you come...

Nick Abbott isn't particularly high profile, but he is very funny. Obviously there satirising the conspiracy theorists.

[moonriver]

10 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

Nick Abbott isn't particularly high profile, but he is very funny. Obviously there satirising the conspiracy theorists.

Yes Nick is very funny,  ☺️ I listen to his Friday and Saturday night shows.  I find his  Boris/Trump clips especially amusing .

Although I know his twitter comment was in jest, he is obviously not feeling good after shot 2, even though he was fine after shot 1. (from what I recall, he did say he only had an achy arm after shot 1).