Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[skinnylattej]

1 hour ago, pig said:

Almost double the population so you can halve that 10K. They understood track and trace and keeping virus levels low from the beginning.

Also average age in higher in Japan.

[Ah-so]

9 minutes ago, skinnylattej said:

If it is not spread by airborne droplets/aerosols, then why are we supposed to wear face masks?

No clear evidence that it isn't spread by droplets - that seems the most likely way.

[moonriver]

21 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

According to this as of March 22nd it's not authorized for use in UK...

https://www.pharmacymagazine.co.uk/ivermectin-for-covid-19-a-cheap-drug-with-a-remarkable-effect

Seems very unfair UK are not using this, when (from your link)..20 other countries are using it to treat covid. And....

When used to treat Covid-19 infection, ivermectin reduces the risk of death by 83 per cent compared to ‘no ivermectin’. It also reduces the risk of deterioration by about 50 per cent. Almost 4,000 patients were included in the trials used in the meta-analysis. The British Ivermectin Recommendation Development (BIRD) Group has now recommended the immediate roll-out of ivermectin for prevention and treatment of Covid-19.

I have seen a few videos with Dr Tess Lawrie, (mentioned in your link) and she's very knowledgable about ivermectin.

[Ah-so]

1 hour ago, pig said:

Almost double the population so you can halve that 10K. They understood track and trace and keeping virus levels low from the beginning.

I don't think the Japanese do track and trace very well. People who have it are more likely to keep the symptoms secret to avoid public embarrassment.

[skinnylattej]

Just now, Ah-so said:

I don't think the Japanese do track and trace very well. People who have it are more likely to keep the symptoms secret to avoid public embarrassment.

Perhaps the excess deaths would confirm or reject that hypothesis.

Unfortunately I can't read Japanese, so finding the data will be very tough for me.

[skinnylattej]

6 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

No clear evidence that it isn't spread by droplets - that seems the most likely way.

I agree that the most likely transmission route is airborne. 

Actions such as mask wearing will also partially explain the very low levels of 'flu over the last winter.

I wonder if any work on airborne transmission could be incorporated into the challenge trials.

[Ah-so]

6 minutes ago, skinnylattej said:

Perhaps the excess deaths would confirm or reject that hypothesis.

Unfortunately I can't read Japanese, so finding the data will be very tough for me.

I believe that they have achieved negative excess deaths over the course of the pandemic. Overall, a successful result to-date, but not because they have test and trace.

[PeanutButter]

India seems to be falling apart eh.

Here soon. 

[Arpeggio]

4 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

India seems to be falling apart eh.

Here soon. 

They were at 100 million injections on the 11th April. Wonder where they are now?

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/11/india/india-second-wave-vaccinations-intl/index.html

[Arpeggio]

2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

As evidenced by the four day State visit accorded to Chairman Xi in 2015, the West is utterly complicit in everything China does. If they're at fault then so are we.

Not that I ever said otherwise, although "we" is a small group of people. Canadians might not be as naive as their leaders.

New Zealand pushes aside Five Eyes to pursue closer ties with China

 

1 hour ago, moonriver said:

Seems very unfair UK are not using this, when (from your link)..20 other countries are using it to treat covid. And....

When used to treat Covid-19 infection, ivermectin reduces the risk of death by 83 per cent compared to ‘no ivermectin’. It also reduces the risk of deterioration by about 50 per cent. Almost 4,000 patients were included in the trials used in the meta-analysis. The British Ivermectin Recommendation Development (BIRD) Group has now recommended the immediate roll-out of ivermectin for prevention and treatment of Covid-19.

I have seen a few videos with Dr Tess Lawrie, (mentioned in your link) and she's very knowledgable about ivermectin.

Very much so. I think this has a lot more to do with just money but in just those terms; treating people who are sick is a tiny market. Treating people who aren't sick is much larger market. 3rd injection coming this year, with yearly jabs. Ivermectin doesn't make enough money and would risk cutting short future profits in an otherwise perpetual war.

Edited April 24, 2021 by Arpeggio

[pig]

2 hours ago, Ah-so said:

I don't think the Japanese do track and trace very well. People who have it are more likely to keep the symptoms secret to avoid public embarrassment.

+ they did it the old fashioned way - without an app and by detecting spreader events:

Quote

Japan is fortunate to have 469 local public health centres with more than 25,000 staff, who have been working hard to conduct contact tracing even before the virus became prevalent in the country. With no tracing apps (given patients’ reluctance to disclose full information), contact tracing has been somewhat analogue and time-consuming, involving calling patients and politely asking them to name the people they have met with in the last fortnight. But the system has worked well, and has resulted in an effective “cluster-focused” approach.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/06/contact-tracing-japan-coronavirus-covid-19-patients-social-etiquette

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

Not that I ever said otherwise, although "we" is a small group of people. Canadians might not be as naive as their leaders.

New Zealand pushes aside Five Eyes to pursue closer ties with China

 

 

**** Cocklin reads a script provided by MI5 and published by a billionaire tax exile who loves this country so much he files his taxes in Bermuda!

The U.S.-China confrontation is not simply a national rivalry. The reason the world is being plunged into an economic and military Cold War 2.0 is to be found in the prospect of socialist control of what Western economies since classical antiquity have treated as privately owned rent-yielding assets: money and banking (along with the rules governing debt and foreclosure), land and natural resources, and infrastructure monopolies.

This contrast in whether money and credit, land and natural monopolies will be privatized and duly concentrated in the hands of the one percent or used to promote general prosperity and growth has basically become one of rentier capitalism vs industrial socialism.

China has demonstrated a successful alternative to the Neoliberal dogmas of Thatcher and Reagan; so successful in fact that it's now become an existential threat to them. By adopting a digital currency backed by blockchain China can decouple from the dollar and the SWIFT banking system without fear of financial repercussions. An appealing prospect for much of the world. Conversely, the US would be hammered. Forced to surrender the exorbitant privilege it has enjoyed since 1945 and almost certainly defaulting on its debt.

[nightowl]

7 hours ago, zugzwang said:

China has demonstrated a successful alternative to the Neoliberal dogmas of Thatcher and Reagan; 

So China was in the same de industrialisation situation as the UK and USA were in the 1970s?

Or was it USA&UK were nations of farmers looking to industrialise back then?

On a wider issue China will get more mentions online anyway as it's the likely source of a pandemic on top of being a new global influence anyway.

Edited April 25, 2021 by nightowl

[The Spaniard]

An informative interview with the redoubtable Catherine Austin Fitts of the solari report.

She gives her take on the possible role of the experimental COVID vaccination programme in the ongoing global 'financial coup'.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/TSBFO0Of3zFO/

Also, for those interested in the broader historical context I recently came across a free unabridged audiobook, serialised into many manageable parts, of the dauntingly lengthy tome Tragedy and Hope by Carroll Quigley.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drfLN1lgwJ0

Another source of background information that springs to mind is The Committee of 300, a 1991/2 book by Dr John Coleman, former British intelligence officer.

 

[The Spaniard]

Thousands of lunatic, TFH wearing, swivel-eyed, granny killing domestic terrorists, cunningly disguised as ordinary people, descended yesterday upon London:

 

[captainb]

11 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

India seems to be falling apart eh.

Here soon. 

I know, tragically over 2m children under 5 will die this year in India. Mostly from diohereal diseases or pumonia.

That's what's getting the "decent into hell" media attention right? 

If it was a respiratory infecrion sadly killing a 10th of that figure, typically over 70, then it could be considered obsessive attention on one form of mortality by the media coverage which is given without context. Nah. Never happens.

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/90/10/12-101873/en/

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(10)61461-4/fulltext

Edited April 25, 2021 by captainb

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

Great article completely validates shut borders and boots on streets. Well done to the Vietnamese. 👏

Vietnam defied the experts and sealed its border to keep Covid-19 out. It worked.

https://www.vox.com/22346085/covid-19-vietnam-response-travel-restrictions

 

[zugzwang]

23 minutes ago, captainb said:

I know, tragically over 2m children under 5 will die this year in India. Mostly from diohereal diseases or pumonia.

That's what's getting the "decent into hell" media attention right? 

If it was a respiratory infecrion sadly killing a 10th of that figure, typically over 70, then it could be considered obsessive attention on one form of mortality by the media coverage which is given without context. Nah. Never happens.

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/90/10/12-101873/en/

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(10)61461-4/fulltext

 

It shouldn't need saying but I'll say it anyway: Infant mortality in India isn't an imminent threat to the rest of the world.

[captainb]

2 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 

It shouldn't need saying but I'll say it anyway: Infant mortality in India isn't an imminent threat to the rest of the world.

Neither was Mexico which has 20x the deaths per million of population from covid and didn't get the "decent into hell" coverage?

Barely got a collumn inch. Not even wrong disease.. what then wrong timing?

 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

3 minutes ago, captainb said:

Neither was Mexico which has 20x the deaths per million of population from covid and didn't get the "decent into hell" coverage?

Barely got a collumn inch. Not even wrong disease.. what then wrong timing?

 

The story is because the India government relaxed too far in January all but declaring Covid over and starting sending its medical supplies and oxygen abroad to help other countries. It then got hit with the new homegrown variant. 

[Clarky Cat]

8 minutes ago, captainb said:

Neither was Mexico which has 20x the deaths per million of population from covid and didn't get the "decent into hell" coverage?

Barely got a collumn inch. Not even wrong disease.. what then wrong timing?

 

Their current covid death rate is likely many times more than that reported (FT article with cremations due to covid running between 3 and 100 times reported covid deaths in various areas)

We also have much closer historic links with India, a large British Indian population, so the news is more relevant to us

[zugzwang]

3 minutes ago, captainb said:

Neither was Mexico which has 20x the deaths per million of population from covid and didn't get the "decent into hell" coverage?

Barely got a collumn inch. Not even wrong disease.. what then wrong timing?

 

Eclipsed by the parallel crisis next door I suspect.

But yet another strongman epic fail.

Trump, Bolso, Putin, Obrador, Modi, Orban...

 

 

[kzb]

22 hours ago, zugzwang said:

described the arrangement as a form of “cronyism” in which: “The apparent ‘external’ ‘independent’ reviews are just this internal bunch paying themselves for looking at the literature

Pretty good summary of modern science all round...

[captainb]

3 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

Their current covid death rate is likely many times more than that reported (FT article with cremations due to covid running between 3 and 100 times reported covid deaths in various areas)

We also have much closer historic links with India, a large British Indian population, so the news is more relevant to us

Hindus always cremate ASAP following death, quickest way to release the soul for reincarnation. Which is why news of burning bodies isn't actually news but gets clicks over here which is the aim of course.

Totally agree that the official figures are likely to be off particularly on case count, but people die or don't die. The record keeping even in the villages isn't that far off for that. Estimates are upto 20% of deaths go unregistered even in the most remote places. Will be far less in cities.

Will await to see what excess deaths looks like but it clearly won't be 100x or anything of the sort of hyperbole.

 

Have no issue,problem, and think it's perfectly reasonable to draw attention to the crisis in Delhi hospitals.

My point is and remains with the media drifting between a binary choice of "everything is fine" and "hell on earth", evidently it's neither.

It started with political coverage which went from being X disagrees with Y on question time to habitually being "X SLAMS Y LIVE on TV! Y shocked and embarassed!"

That got clicks and read. Public lapped it up. Now they are doing the same with health and or covid. And yep public is loving the disaster porn. Sells clicks.

 

[Ah-so]

10 hours ago, pig said:

+ they did it the old fashioned way - without an app and by detecting spreader events:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/06/contact-tracing-japan-coronavirus-covid-19-patients-social-etiquette

I stand corrected!

Although the initial approach was quite half-hearted, with the government actually making it quite hard to get tested - you needed to display COVID symptoms for 48 hours before you could get a test. Also, people working in the health sector have resigned due to discrimination they have received (quite the opposite of "clap for carers").