MarkG Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, LetsBuild said: There is a lot being made of China having ‘beaten’ this, but what is to stop someone from the rest of the world bringing it back in if they reduce the draconian measures? China is already seeing new cases because of people coming to China from countries the Chinese infected. It basically can't be stopped at this point, only held in check until the summer hopefully slows infections to a low rate. Because governments prefer globalism to protecting their own people by closing the borders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopsy Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, moonriver said: Yes going on several people's experience I have heard of this winter, plus the doc's puzzlement as to why my son and I both had pneumonia, it does like a minor variant has been around for some time now. It could possibly be that the S type mentioned in this paper? "Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L type (~70%) is more prevalent than the S type (~30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version. Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. " "Although the L type (~70%) was more prevalent than the S type (~30%) in the SARS-CoV-2 viruses we examined, our evolutionary analyses suggested the S type was most likely the more ancient version of SARS-CoV-2. Our results also support the idea that the L type is more aggressive than the S type."https://watermark.silverchair.com/nwaa036.pdf Edited March 4, 2020 by Flopsy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, kzb said: Yes this has been linked several times on here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Take the US as an example 9 deaths but only 137 cases......against Iran 2922 cases with 92 deaths......? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, Orb said: Call me naive, but the fatality rate could be way lower than currently thought. Every death from Covid-19 will be recorded, but not every instance of infection will. For example, Italy report 79 deaths, and cause of death is recorded in every death of every citizen all the time. So we can be sure the number of Covid-19 deaths are accurate. But those 79 deaths come from 2502 reported cases. This number could be 25000, because a lot of people will have mild symptoms, may pass it off as a common cold, and therefore not be officially recorded. If that's the case, the fatality rate would be very low. Yeah I thought that. Until recently in some countries you had to fight hard to get a diagnosis., Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 It makes sense that there are far more mild cases than we know on. On the other hand, the WHO have claimed that's not true. But the WHO have claimed a lot of nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Flopsy said: I think it is important to consider the number of serious cases. They are going to be "heaven's waiting room" for some and watching Italy may give us an idea of where the UK will be. Remember that a figure of 150? current critical care beds of the type needed was said by some doctor recently in England. Italy has 295 out of it's 2706 cases. China has 6416/27301. Italy is very high and I don't know how the UK is going to find enough of the right sort of critical care beds I am curious too. All depends how aggressive they will be fighting it. If they lock down everything like China now there is a chance to avoid a big outbreak. If they let it run virtually unchecked it could get bigger than Hubei with tens of thousands critical cases, this will be a carnage as NHS won't be able to handle it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopsy Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, slawek said: I am curious too. All depends how aggressive they will be fighting it. If they lock down everything like China now there is a chance to avoid a big outbreak. If they let it run virtually unchecked it could get bigger than Hubei with tens of thousands critical cases, this will be a carnage as NHS won't be able to handle it. I don't know if anyone has written about how the NHS will treat infected patients and especially the critical ones. In a Guardian article on Saturday there was report by someone in China who was treated. there They said "The hospital gave me five days of an anti-HIV medicine for free, while my family were also starting to take prescribed medicine". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simhadri Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 37 minutes ago, MarkG said: They didn't want to be called racists. Nothing to do with racism. This is about protecting people of ALL races living in UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 WHO put the fatality rate at 3.4 percent... https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEEDxQHGM14kmfN537IissLgqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow2Nb3CjDivdcCMLvrngY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, Simhadri said: Nothing to do with racism. This is about protecting people of ALL races living in UK. Yeah, right. The Guardian totally wouldn't have called Boris a racist if he'd shut off all travel from China, and then all travel from anywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simhadri Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, MarkG said: Yeah, right. The Guardian totally wouldn't have called Boris a racist if he'd shut off all travel from China, and then all travel from anywhere. Guardian or any leftie group is not running government. Guardian and many media outlets have blamed Brexit, did Tories stop ? People from Iran now reaching Dover coast in boats. Iran has high rate of corona virus. On top of this, we allowed people from Wuhan flights with NHS leaflets. The virus is mutating but the second strain which was supposed to be milder than first one is turning out to be aggressive and tougher than first strain of this virus in UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, LetsBuild said: There is a lot being made of China having ‘beaten’ this, but what is to stop someone from the rest of the world bringing it back in if they reduce the draconian measures? Is their plan to keep on lockdown until a vaccine is created, mass produced and distributed? The plan is to spread out the cases and try and delay it as much as possible. That way the beds are freed up from seasonal flu complications and we dont have a mass of people needing critical care at the same time. Spread it out, lower the peak. Thats the key to lowering the mortality of the thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moonriver Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 57 minutes ago, Flopsy said: It could possibly be that the S type mentioned in this paper? "Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L type (~70%) is more prevalent than the S type (~30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version. Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. " "Although the L type (~70%) was more prevalent than the S type (~30%) in the SARS-CoV-2 viruses we examined, our evolutionary analyses suggested the S type was most likely the more ancient version of SARS-CoV-2. Our results also support the idea that the L type is more aggressive than the S type."https://watermark.silverchair.com/nwaa036.pdf Thank you for that, very interesting. (complicated though!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moonriver Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 13 hours ago, Grayphil said: Intereating you mention thos, both my son 7 and his sister 2 m, both got pneumonia about 2 months ago and had to take antibiotics, this was Latvia where there have been no reported cars of carona virus, Ita probs not, but strange for them to both have it confirmed by xray.. Both are fine now and didn't get much of a temperature and cough wasn't as bad as some of the previous colds he has had Yes its all very odd. My pneumonia was also verified by x ray. My daughter reminded me at the time I got pneumonia, that she had heard there was a large number of pneumonia cases in China. (this was pre any mention of coronavirus). That's good your little ones are over it now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, Simhadri said: The virus is mutating but the second strain which was supposed to be milder than first one is turning out to be aggressive and tougher than first strain of this virus in UK. That's the first I've heard of mutation. Where'd you get that information? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Orb said: That's the first I've heard of mutation. Where'd you get that information? https://www.google.com/search?q=coronavirus+two+strains Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Si1 said: https://www.google.com/search?q=coronavirus+two+strains Could be the strain hitting Iran hard. There has been some talk of it affecting the heart and causing myocarditis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, slawek said: My guess is the number of all cases is a few times of the confirmed cases. If you look at how quickly the number of cases is increasing, here and abroad, and assume it takes around 7 days for the symptoms to appear and get tested, then unless there is something different about the spread in the UK the real number of cases will be at least 10 times higher than so far recorded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xiox Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 11 hours ago, rollover said: How will the remaining 20% avoid to be infected and keep clear of the virus? I read somewhere it's because the R value (how many people a person spreads it to) decreases as more people have been infected, because you can't pass it onto people who've already had it. Therefore it stops increasing exponentially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xiox Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) [duplicate] Edited March 4, 2020 by xiox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Orb said: because a lot of people will have mild symptoms, may pass it off as a common cold, and therefore not be officially recorded. If that's the case, the fatality rate would be very low. 'Mild'in this case mean 2-3 weeks of serious sickness that can change into life threatening symptoms over night. Getting hold of anti-viral's and any other drugs you can to stop mild symptoms progressing to fatal is a strong motivating factor to persuade most cases to be reported. Testing is picking up most if not all cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, xiox said: I read somewhere it's because the R value (how many people a person spreads it to) decreases as more people have been infected, because you can't pass it onto people who've already had it. Therefore it stops increasing exponentially. Yes it's the herd effect. Someone who has had the virus cannot catch/spread (for a currently unknown period) so eventually the number of people being infected by each new person that catches it falls below 1 and it fizzles out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: If you look at how quickly the number of cases is increasing, here and abroad, and assume it takes around 7 days for the symptoms to appear and get tested, then unless there is something different about the spread in the UK the real number of cases will be at least 10 times higher than so far recorded. Not all the cases are detected after around 7 days from a contact. I think most of the cases now are detected by tracing back people who were infected. Anyway there are likely hundreds of people among us spreading the virus at the moment. I think this can't be contained any longer, we will have an outbreak. The only question is how big it will be and that depends on how aggressive they will be in shutting down the country. The impact on the economy will be significant regardless of the outbreak size. It will last 1-2 months plus a tail of residual cases. I hope I am wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, slawek said: Not all the cases are detected after around 7 days from a contact. I think most of the cases now are detected by tracing back people who were infected. Anyway there are likely hundreds of people among us spreading the virus at the moment. I think this can't be contained any longer, we will have an outbreak. The only question is how big it will be and that depends on how aggressive they will be in shutting down the country. The impact on the economy will be significant regardless of the outbreak size. It will last 1-2 months plus a tail of residual cases. I hope I am wrong. Yes, it is just a rough estimate based on what has been reported about the time it takes to develop symptoms but I think if it is seriously wrong it will be a big underestimate rather than an overestimate. If I start coughing tonight and call 111 and am tested and have the results inside 48hrs 10 times the current reported numbers looks about right, if the reality is it takes a week then the real number will be much higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopsy Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Si1 said: https://www.google.com/search?q=coronavirus+two+strains The paper on the two strains is using genomes from the GISAID collection. You can see what countries are included and the mutations. Doesn't look as if Iran is sharing this information. GISAID - Next SARS-CoV2 App.html Edited March 4, 2020 by Flopsy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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