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Everything posted by xiox

  1. Let's hope so, but the Spanish Flu got more deadly later: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave
  2. Persuade them to try Zoom.us instead. It's cheap and we've never had a problem with call quality in all the meetings I've been on.
  3. Denmark goes into partial lockdown: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/denmark-shuts-schools-universities-curb-193856187.html Italy goes into virtually complete lockdown, stopping non-essential commercial activity: https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/cronaca/2020/03/11/coronavirus-il-premier-conte-in-diretta-live_2fe2bb51-6317-49f7-bec3-65f3ae2e5976.html
  4. Have a look at https://monevator.com/ - they have price comparisons and some reading. I hold an HSBC MSCI All World tracker ETF, though this index does have a lot of US exposure. Vanguard are popular and have a lot of different cheap ETFs. They also have products which give you a fixed mixture of shares and bonds, to avoid the work of rebalancing.
  5. They don't seem to be caring too much here in Munich at the doctors or generally. My work is still open, though perhaps the U-Bahn is quieter. Shopworkers don't seem to be taking any precautions. Concentration may be a factor. I also think the German cases have been of relatively young people compared to the Italian cases, though I can't find that data. Older Italians tend to live with younger ones, unlike here in Germany, which allows better spread to the more vulnerable. However, when this virus gets into care homes I suspect it will be a disaster in Germany. My town has a very high population of retirees.
  6. Right - it's a balance that you have to use the best scientific and medical evidence to decide where to draw the line, looking at the potential outcomes. I don't think strong measures are that bad if they are limited in timescale or scope. If someone won't stay in quarantine with an extremely dangerous illness (e.g. ebola or maybe coronavirus), I think most people would agree that strong measures are justified to stop them leaving. People accept that in war that normal freedoms are temporarily suspended. This virus may well be as serious as a war.
  7. But there's not much stopping Europe being Wuhan in the next few weeks to months. Wuhan only slowed down the cases using extreme measures, such as welding people into their houses. However, one hope is that warm weather stops it spreading so quickly.
  8. I read somewhere it's because the R value (how many people a person spreads it to) decreases as more people have been infected, because you can't pass it onto people who've already had it. Therefore it stops increasing exponentially.
  9. It might be the real death rate with little medical treatment, which we could get if hospitals become overrun. Plus I read somewhere they're using steroids in Iran to treat it, due to sanctions, which are not the best idea.
  10. Some thoughts from Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crisis: https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/nouriel-roubini-on-coronavirus-this-crisis-will-spill-over-and-result-in-a-disaster-a-e811cf3b-d495-4c52-bf79-d872c8f164ac
  11. Here's a story: https://nypost.com/2020/02/19/whistleblower-doctors-say-coronavirus-reinfection-even-deadlier/ Not sure how accurate it is - it's pretty anecdotal.
  12. True, but there's a chance you could catch it again. I don't think there's evidence that infection gives immunity. There are some stories you can find on google suggesting that reinfection is deadlier, but I don't know how accurate they are.
  13. Personally I'd ban or heavily tax them because of their terrible pollution, and the horrible overtourism impact on the places they go to. For example, Carnival's cruise ships generated 10 times more sulphur oxide than the cars in Europe in 2017.
  14. It seems the quarantine procedures were useless - the quarantine officer was even infected - see Now they're just letting them off the ship with a negative test. Great way to inject huge numbers of infected directly into the population: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamond-princess-coronavirus/
  15. When he supported Norway: The Brexit policy Farage would rather forget https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/11/08/when-he-supported-norway-the-brexit-policy-farage-would-rath
  16. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-leave-eu-angela-merkel-latest-xenophobic-arron-banks-a9147551.html Disgusting tweet from vote.leave.
  17. And that is why Johnson is so dangerous. He whips up those who are easily swayed with the simplified rhetoric of conflict (e.g. "us vs them", "capitulation", "defeat"). He lies habitually. Never apologises and never admits he's wrong. Promises the impossible. Never uses any nuance. Never negotiates. He's a dangerous man and he's moving the country in a very dangerous direction. He's a populist moving towards proto-fascism.
  18. So Johnson claims that prorogation was nothing to do with brexit, and now his actions were shown to be unlawful, now claims that prorogation was everything to do with brexit. We also hear populist rhetoric form the Tories claiming the courts are trying to frustrate the Will Of the People (i.e. a 4% majority in a referendum campaign full of all half-truths on a dangerously unclear question). The mental gymnastics trying to justify virtually any action supporting any sort of crazy (aka hard) brexit have been amazing to watch. So far we've had the following as being Just Fine to support this: massive economic damage, breakup of the country, ignoring the rule of law, ignoring parliamentary sovereignty, lying to the queen, breaking our good relations with our neighbours, becoming an internation laughing stock and causing massive divide between the generations. What's left? Dictator or civil war? For what? An idea, the benefits of which can't be articulated.
  19. I'm currently in Germany and the reaction is bemusement or amusement here. I also go to a lot of international conferences and everyone thinks Brexit is completely crazy. I've never heard anyone say otherwise. Probably the only places you'll find pro-Brexit opinions world-wide are on Breitbart or RT.
  20. Why are brexiteer memes so crap? It's like Cumming's Corbyn chicken meme: so weak.
  21. I wouldn't trust Johnson. The man is a pathological liar. He's just a mini trump who doesn't care about the difference between fact and fiction.
  22. You've still gone quiet about some of the responses made to you upthread. Convenient?
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