Reform Is the 2024 Dark Horse

[Bear Necessities]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

They need at least 6 weeks from calling an election to having one.  Elections are always a Thursday.  If the election on 2 May is a disaster it will become apparent on 3 May, so technically they could JUST ABOUT have time to call one for late June, but it would be very tight.  They'd have to call it virtually the week after the 2 May election.

So it depends if they all manage to draw their knives quickly enough after May 2nd then. 

I won't get my hopes up, it's just a June election would make for a nice early birthday present.

[scottbeard]

16 minutes ago, Bear Necessities said:

So it depends if they all manage to draw their knives quickly enough after May 2nd then. 

I won't get my hopes up, it's just a June election would make for a nice early birthday present.

I think so, yes.  It's interesting that the line of Conservative support is just trending down and down ... I wonder if it's really true that the few remaining Conservative voters really are still draining away like that, or it's just people being grumpy in responses to pollsters but actually at the GE they will vote Conservative after all.  The 2 May elections will be fascinating, and it will be amusing to see how many Tory councillors get the boot, and if any are left!!

[Bear Necessities]

8 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I think so, yes.  It's interesting that the line of Conservative support is just trending down and down ... I wonder if it's really true that the few remaining Conservative voters really are still draining away like that, or it's just people being grumpy in responses to pollsters but actually at the GE they will vote Conservative after all.  The 2 May elections will be fascinating, and it will be amusing to see how many Tory councillors get the boot, and if any are left!!

What I find amazing is that there were still reports of Tory MPs a couple of weeks ago saying things like "well the locals may not be as bad as we feared" and "If the locals go ok then we will get a boost in the polls" and you just wonder how anyone can be so detached from reality that they think the local election results might end up being good for tory poll numbers!

(Unless they are trying to downplay it and position themselves as "if we do better than a total 100% wipeout (never likely) in the locals then that would be a positive result"

 

Edited April 9 by Bear Necessities

[henry the king]

3 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I think so, yes.  It's interesting that the line of Conservative support is just trending down and down ... I wonder if it's really true that the few remaining Conservative voters really are still draining away like that, or it's just people being grumpy in responses to pollsters but actually at the GE they will vote Conservative after all.  The 2 May elections will be fascinating, and it will be amusing to see how many Tory councillors get the boot, and if any are left!!

There is essentially no fear of Labour left as Tory voters will think "Could it even get worse?". 

So no, in an election those voters will not return in great numbers to the Tories. They haven't delivered on their core issues to their core voters. In fact, they have seemingly actively delivered against the core issues of their core voters. If anything I would guess Reform continue their rise in an election, especially if Farage returns. 

[HovelinHove]

5 hours ago, Bear Necessities said:

Could they not squeeze one in in June, if it comes to the party saying "you've messed up the locals so we want you out Sunak, and he calls one then rather than being forced out?"

If October then it will be interesting to see if the blue lines converge before then.   Although I still fully expect Reform to get 0 or 1 seat in total.   

I can't see what Sunak is playing at by not holding it at the same time as the locals because those are surely going to be so bad it's game over anyway? That's quite some optimism he has that they can turn things around in 6 months, given how they've done nothing but make things worse at every turn! I guess it allows more time for pocket stuffing before they leave.

 

I think he will sink the party rather than let someone else take the reins. he is a WEF plant.

I watched Tice tonight on GB news and he was rubbish. He is not good in front of a camera when put under any pressure. Unless Farage joins the fray, then Labour will romp home which will be a complete disaster, all caused by the vile lying filth that is the modern Tory party.

[MARTINX9]

9 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I think so, yes.  It's interesting that the line of Conservative support is just trending down and down ... I wonder if it's really true that the few remaining Conservative voters really are still draining away like that, or it's just people being grumpy in responses to pollsters but actually at the GE they will vote Conservative after all.  The 2 May elections will be fascinating, and it will be amusing to see how many Tory councillors get the boot, and if any are left!!

Reform are hardly standing anywhere in the 2 May local elections - barely 10 per cent of seats. The only place they might win a seat or two is on the Greater London Assembly as it is elected by PR.

We will find out on 2 May if those Reform voters just stay at home - or vote Tory or Labour or (as often applies in rural/shire areas) vote for independents?

 

 

[HovelinHove]

5 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Reform are hardly standing anywhere in the 2 May local elections - barely 10 per cent of seats. The only place they might win a seat or two is on the Greater London Assembly as it is elected by PR.

We will find out on 2 May if those Reform voters just stay at home - or vote Tory or Labour or (as often applies in rural/shire areas) vote for independents?

 

 

The problem with voting out Tory councillors in protest is that you lose some really dedicated local representatives who are reasonably competent and end up with complete twerps who ban weed killer and squander the budget on DEI etc. The last thing you need for local councils is loads of local ideologically driven nutters…look at Scotland or Wales or London or Brighton for a lesson. We need out potholes fixing!

Unfortunately there is no other way of sending the message though.

[onlooker]

21 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

The problem with voting out Tory councillors in protest is that you lose some really dedicated local representatives who are reasonably competent and end up with complete twerps who ban weed killer and squander the budget on DEI etc. The last thing you need for local councils is loads of local ideologically driven nutters…look at Scotland or Wales or London or Brighton for a lesson. We need out potholes fixing!

Unfortunately there is no other way of sending the message though.

Well said.

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

The problem with voting out Tory councillors in protest is that you lose some really dedicated local representatives who are reasonably competent and end up with complete twerps who ban weed killer and squander the budget on DEI etc. The last thing you need for local councils is loads of local ideologically driven nutters…look at Scotland or Wales or London or Brighton for a lesson. We need out potholes fixing!

Unfortunately there is no other way of sending the message though.

Maybe, though I doubt every single council seat is a choice between a Tory and a Twerp.  You could send a pretty good message by removing 75% of the Tory councillors whilst leaving the small number who are both competent and with absolutely no other competents on the ballot in place.

[Lagarde's Drift]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Maybe, though I doubt every single council seat is a choice between a Tory and a Twerp.  You could send a pretty good message by removing 75% of the Tory councillors whilst leaving the small number who are both competent and with absolutely no other competents on the ballot in place.

Considering that the average person on the street can't name their local MP or can't name more than 1 or 2 front benchers in the govt or the opposition, what chance of local councillors? Every local election I've had I don't know anything about the individuals, just receive some leaflets if they're bothered and a piece in the local news with a single paragraph CV from each candidate that has bothered to submit one.

Sure, I could go out and look for information, but will the person on the street bother? Hence why it's all about the principal ie the party and its leader as that's more or less the only thing ppl know anything about.

[HovelinHove]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Maybe, though I doubt every single council seat is a choice between a Tory and a Twerp.  You could send a pretty good message by removing 75% of the Tory councillors whilst leaving the small number who are both competent and with absolutely no other competents on the ballot in place.

But that would require effort! I will just not vote. The Greens are the protest party of choice around here, and they are terrible at running councils.

[scottbeard]

42 minutes ago, Lagarde's Drift said:

Sure, I could go out and look for information, but will the person on the street bother? Hence why it's all about the principal ie the party and its leader as that's more or less the only thing ppl know anything about.

No - most people will not bother, I'm just saying that you COULD bother if you wanted to.

33 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

But that would require effort! I will just not vote. The Greens are the protest party of choice around here, and they are terrible at running councils.

I'm not telling you what to do, only noting it is possible. 

As it happens, I will vote for the Green party because I know the guy who runs the local Green party and his heart is in the right place.  As I am moving house in a few months anyway no matter who I vote for it's someone else who will have to live with the consequences...

[Lagarde's Drift]

4 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

No - most people will not bother, I'm just saying that you COULD bother if you wanted to.

I'm not telling you what to do, only noting it is possible. 

As it happens, I will vote for the Green party because I know the guy who runs the local Green party and his heart is in the right place.  As I am moving house in a few months anyway no matter who I vote for it's someone else who will have to live with the consequences...

I don't think it's actually all that easy or even possible to figure out which of your local councillors are competent (irrespective of party) and which ones are idiots / corrupt / ideologues. Change my mind.

[Bruce Banner]

3 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

No - most people will not bother, I'm just saying that you COULD bother if you wanted to.

I'm not telling you what to do, only noting it is possible. 

As it happens, I will vote for the Green party because I know the guy who runs the local Green party and his heart is in the right place.  As I am moving house in a few months anyway no matter who I vote for it's someone else who will have to live with the consequences...

I doubt if we'll get to vote this year for anything. We're away soon for a few months and although we've applied for postal votes the envelopes will probably sit on our door mat along with the junk mail . Why can't we vote online?

[scottbeard]

18 minutes ago, Lagarde's Drift said:

I don't think it's actually all that easy or even possible to figure out which of your local councillors are competent (irrespective of party) and which ones are idiots / corrupt / ideologues. Change my mind.

Easy?  No

Possible?  Well I have friends who have actually stood for local council for Tory, Green and Lib Dem.  So often I have a friend's name on the ballot or someone I can talk to about them.  In other cases people call at the door and you can talk to them and form a view.

However, in most cases yes perhaps you're right - it's hard to tell.

But perversely, if you can't tell who is competent and who is a twerp then actually @HovelinHove's original point dissipates somewhat - you might as well just vote against the Tory because the Tory party deserves it, since you have no information on competence and you're equally likely to be ousting a twerp as voting one in.

[MARTINX9]

10 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

The problem with voting out Tory councillors in protest is that you lose some really dedicated local representatives who are reasonably competent and end up with complete twerps who ban weed killer and squander the budget on DEI etc. The last thing you need for local councils is loads of local ideologically driven nutters…look at Scotland or Wales or London or Brighton for a lesson. We need out potholes fixing!

Unfortunately there is no other way of sending the message though.

Thurrock and Woking were run by the Tories when they went bust.

Its no guarantee of being competent.

Thurrock is probably the worst case of incompetence of all these authorities - as the Panorama episode below showed.  They literally gave tens of millions to a dodgy businessmen who used it to buy private jets, luxury homes and expensive watches. And he has no obligation legally to pay it back as they didn't specify he could use the money for that purpose. As a result (as highlighted in the programme) they had to cut funding to a local dance group which helped disabled and special needs kids - to save £7,000! Absolutely criminal!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001p965

 

 

Edited April 10 by MARTINX9

[Confusion of VIs]

10 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

I doubt if we'll get to vote this year for anything. We're away soon for a few months and although we've applied for postal votes the envelopes will probably sit on our door mat along with the junk mail . Why can't we vote online?

The problem is that it is nigh on impossible to design an on-line voting system that is secure, auditable and capable of guaranteeing the voters anonymity. 

 

 

 

[DiggerUK]

On 21/03/2024 at 12:32, DiggerUK said:

The tories are riven with dissent at the moment. I still see no arguments that convince me that Reform will poll in anything other than single% figures and get no MP's.

Just headlines for the media and false hope for the dog whistle gang..._

Seems that Reform can't get any councillors elected either..._

[Bob8]

1 hour ago, DiggerUK said:

Seems that Reform can't get any councillors elected either..._

A populist, nationalist exceptionalist party is pretty normal in Europe and should get about 1/8th of the vote. The problem is maximising that and having enough old people in one place to make that count.

[Chunketh]

1 hour ago, DiggerUK said:

Seems that Reform can't get any councillors elected either..._

True. They seem to be doing a great job of splitting the evil vote though, so don’t tell them or anything!!!

[Timm]

2 hours ago, DiggerUK said:

Seems that Reform can't get any councillors elected either..._

They have come from utterly nowhere to challenging Tory MPs very fast though.

But if they want to be an actual force in British politics, then they need to slow down and consolidate. 

As things stand, there are far too many of them that are utter out and out nutters.

Those need to be purged before the next push.

[Chunketh]

2 hours ago, Timm said:

They have come from utterly nowhere to challenging Tory MPs very fast though.

But if they want to be an actual force in British politics, then they need to slow down and consolidate. 

As things stand, there are far too many of them that are utter out and out nutters.

Those need to be purged before the next push.

they also need some policies that aint total batshit crazy and credible leadership.

After that they are golden.

[KGear]

6 hours ago, Bob8 said:

A populist, nationalist exceptionalist party is pretty normal in Europe and should get about 1/8th of the vote. The problem is maximising that and having enough old people in one place to make that count.

The real problem is the flawed voting system that makes that necessary

[Bob8]

3 hours ago, KGear said:

The real problem is the flawed voting system that makes that necessary

Yes. I agree more and more.

Under PR you vote for a party rather than against them.

[regprentice]

14 hours ago, DiggerUK said:

Seems that Reform can't get any councillors elected either..._

interesting article in Todays FT.

Reform UK boosts Labour’s prospects but struggles to take seats

Leader of right-wing party praises ‘great progress’ but narrow gains raise doubts about its electoral impact

Reform are to the conservatives as Alba are to the SNP it seems. A novelty party run by a leadership reject more interested in hurting their former party than achieving anything meaningful.