Halifax March 23: up 0.8%!!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

11 minutes ago, fellow said:

Isn't the problem with the Halifax figures that they do not just show new purchases but include re-mortgages as well?

If fewer houses are selling, the higher percentage of re-mortgages could push the average price up as you would expect people to be remortgaging at higher levels today than they were last month / year due to the lag effect of historic prices?

I think the problem is that they were bailed out and if prices collapse they'll bring down the whole system.

Hey, might as well make sh*t up at that point.

It;'s very convenient that they're getting all these positive headlines as the spring bounce happens.

Their index has been ridiculous for years now.

[ChrisSussex]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

No it didn't, **** off troll.

 

If f***ing did boy, I hope property crashes as much as anyone else but that is the best indicator I have that prices have not crashed.

[Homeless Millionaire]

1 hour ago, 80percentfalls said:

Just open your eyes bro, in the real world many middle class families have a good earner and a mum in minimum wage jobs, healthcare, education etc and of course this pushes up all wages in the bottom bracket, not just minimum wages.

Hundreds more for a family looking for their next house.

Enough to buy you a new skateboard?

[70PC]

11 minutes ago, ChrisSussex said:

House just sold next to my old place, in very similar condition. Sold for 3% more than I sold at peak, not a massive increase but certainly not a drop either. Do they release a breakdown of the price brackets of the houses sold. One explanation is only medium to higher value properties are selling - the lower end has slowed right down

Whether this example is true or invented, it is meaningless. The relationship between interest rates and borrowing costs are not linear. The BOE/lenders took borrowing rates to an inflection point exponential aspect of rate changes became evident. The hypothetical case is when mortgage rates go to zero. The cost of servicing debt in that case is also zero and house prices can go to infinity. You don't even need an income to take on a mortgage.  

We have moved to a different part of the curve. Expectations will take time to adjust. 

 

[hotblack42]

28 minutes ago, ChrisSussex said:

 

If f***ing did boy, I hope property crashes as much as anyone else but that is the best indicator I have that prices have not crashed.

It will still be on Rightmove, link please.  PS consider this an honour, its normal to disregard people with a paltry post count who post progressively, or in the manner of a VI.

PPS note my location.  I am all across Sussex prices..

Edited April 6, 2023 by hotblack42

[TheCountOfNowhere]

28 minutes ago, ChrisSussex said:

 

If f***ing did boy, I hope property crashes as much as anyone else but that is the best indicator I have that prices have not crashed.

[regprentice]

1 hour ago, bartelbe said:

The problem is there is no direct link between interest rates and house prices. Rationally there should be, as mortgages get more expensive, lenders should be denying borrowers loans and borrowers should be thinking this unaffordable.

This is actually happening, the Halifax report is quite clear that year on year mortgage approvals are down 37%. (in the blue panel on page 3 - Bank of England mortgage approval figures).

But even if only one house is sold in the UK in a  month you can still claim average house prices are rising, as long as the price of that house was above the average. 

I believe a lot of people are rushing to buy before that chance is taken from them, as a crash in prices will be accompanied by a significant tightening in lending criteria. i do believe that a small minority could still be overpaying in desirable locations/big cities but the headline number for me is that the number of people in the market with an approved mortgage ready to buy was almost 60% higher last year than it is today .

[regprentice]

1 hour ago, bartelbe said:

 

duplicate

Edited April 6, 2023 by regprentice

[w11 1rh]

This is excellent news. Rising interest rates are pushing up house prices! B of E need to increase rates so that prices rise  even higher.

[Bruce Banner]

Sky News Business presenter is puzzled by these figures which are at odds with Nationwide figures.

"A lot of people will be scratching their heads".

[danlee74]

7 minutes ago, w11 1rh said:

This is excellent news. Rising interest rates are pushing up house prices! B of E need to increase rates so that prices rise  even higher.

Exactly what I was thinking. The base rate is obviously not high enough.

[markyh]

2 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Wait for the stampede of posters cheering and laughing in the nationwide thread to come here and say it’s all made up, doesn’t matter, vested interests, numbers are fiddled etc etc etc. 

+0.8 for Halifax, -0.8 for nationwide. Call it a draw? 

 

 

The HPC show wont get rolling fully until ALL HPI indices show YOY negative like they last did in 2008.  Then buy the end of that year we will be 20%+ down, especially newbuilds. 

[longgone]

GiViNg yOu ExTrA.

 

[wighty]

22 minutes ago, regprentice said:

This is actually happening, the Halifax report is quite clear that year on year mortgage approvals are down 37%. (in the blue panel on page 3 - Bank of England mortgage approval figures).

But even if only one house is sold in the UK in a  month you can still claim average house prices are rising, as long as the price of that house was above the average. 

I believe a lot of people are rushing to buy before that chance is taken from them, as a crash in prices will be accompanied by a significant tightening in lending criteria. i do believe that a small minority could still be overpaying in desirable locations/big cities but the headline number for me is that the number of people in the market with an approved mortgage ready to buy was almost 60% higher last year than it is today .

60%higher last year. Maybe just better houses in more desirable locations are selling.

And the flight from rip off diminishing number of rentals is having an effect.

 

[MancTom]

1 hour ago, ChrisSussex said:

House just sold next to my old place, in very similar condition. Sold for 3% more than I sold at peak, not a massive increase but certainly not a drop either. Do they release a breakdown of the price brackets of the houses sold. One explanation is only medium to higher value properties are selling - the lower end has slowed right down

In my village loads of big detached houses don’t sell. But classic middle class semis in decent condition still have bidding  wars. Guess people still need to live somewhere…

[TheCountOfNowhere]

33 minutes ago, regprentice said:

This is actually happening, the Halifax report is quite clear that year on year mortgage approvals are down 37%. (in the blue panel on page 3 - Bank of England mortgage approval figures).

But even if only one house is sold in the UK in a  month you can still claim average house prices are rising, as long as the price of that house was above the average. 

I believe a lot of people are rushing to buy before that chance is taken from them, as a crash in prices will be accompanied by a significant tightening in lending criteria. i do believe that a small minority could still be overpaying in desirable locations/big cities but the headline number for me is that the number of people in the market with an approved mortgage ready to buy was almost 60% higher last year than it is today .

I think they are trying to keep the plates spinning till they can cut rates again.

They cant cut rates again.

This is painful to watch.

The politician cry about the cost of living crisis then stay silent when bailed out bankers put up house prices.

[Fromage Frais]

1 hour ago, ChrisSussex said:

House just sold next to my old place, in very similar condition. Sold for 3% more than I sold at peak, not a massive increase but certainly not a drop either. Do they release a breakdown of the price brackets of the houses sold. One explanation is only medium to higher value properties are selling - the lower end has slowed right down

Ends of chains and there are always the odd rich person.

we are turning into North africa

when I was working there say a 4 bed house real price was 200,00£ but they would list for 500,000£ and put the price up each year and never sell it.

occasionally every few a local lad/foreigner would do good in France/Uk/USA and ****** it would pay the prices.

in other cases the owner would die the family need the money and a frenzy around the actual price.

Very very opaque and not a great market to invest as so illiquid as if you don’t have years to waste to get the best price.

 

[Fromage Frais]

6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I think they are trying to keep the plates spinning till they can cut rates again.

They cant cut rates again.

This is painful to watch.

The politician cry about the cost of living crisis then stay silent when bailed out bankers put up house prices.

They need to raise them plate spinning at high prices equals a dead market.

you need prices rising or falling to get any benefit imho

[mynamehere]

This simply shows how varied the market is.  Different regions and property types are showing very different growth rates. However historically Halifax tracks ONS much more closely than nationwide. And other indicators are closer to Halifax vs nationwide. 

There is no universal crash occurring across all regions. Some postcodes are still seeing decent volume and prices. Increasingly I think you just need to focus on your area as following national indices may be misleading for your particular case  

 

[msi]

Sounds like a real terms fall to me.....

[winkie]

7 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Ends of chains and there are always the odd rich person.

we are turning into North africa

when I was working there say a 4 bed house real price was 200,00£ but they would list for 500,000£ and put the price up each year and never sell it.

occasionally every few a local lad/foreigner would do good in France/Uk/USA and ****** it would pay the prices.

in other cases the owner would die the family need the money and a frenzy around the actual price.

Very very opaque and not a great market to invest as so illiquid as if you don’t have years to waste to get the best price.

 

Everything is for sale at a price.

 

The more over going market priced the less chance of selling it.....the greater numbers of similar houses for sale the less chance of selling until reduce the price, got to be competitive when fewer people around that are either.....ready, willing or able.

 

[Housepricecrash91]

The figures are being manipulated for sure

[dkujsbap]

2 hours ago, fellow said:

Halifax YoY +1.6%.

Nationwide YoY -3.1%.

One of these figures is wrong and I know which one I believe.

I agree with you, problem is if 90% of people believe the other.

[mynamehere]

2 hours ago, fellow said:

Halifax YoY +1.6%.

Nationwide YoY -3.1%.

One of these figures is wrong and I know which one I believe.

Why does one need to be wrong?

Each represents about 10% of the market. And have different mix up areas and properties. Both could be correct. 
 

 

[Captain_Caveman]

Going to have to pay top dollar for some tat in Berkshire as market is showing quite a bit of selling activity and available property listings have been in decline in the last week or two. Set myself a target of looking and offering from June as I could be dead before we see any meaningful downturn!!