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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. He's in panic mode and chasing headlines. It's pathetic. There's no governance or vision, just reactionary politics.
  2. I think there's still too many buyers (in certain areas) who want to buy before IRs get 'too high'. I certainly think that the property market is slowly turning, but it'll probably be 3-6 months before we're properly in crash territory IMO.
  3. I wonder what this government will do when we're properly in a recession. They have already overspent on big cash giveaways, and now their debt interest bill is only going one way...
  4. Was just about to post this. £1300 per month on their car. IRs being so low for so long will turn out to be a real scandal IMO. It's just encouraged even more profligacy than usual.
  5. A fair point but I'm due to be mortgage free by then. But even if I'm not, a 10% IR wouldn't be a massive price increase. Having such cheap money for 4.5 years if fine by me, and much better than me paying a landlord money over that period
  6. The 1.22% 5 year fix deal I took out last year (remortgage) is now 3.14%. The fact that I could get a higher IR on my savings, than my mortgage, is pretty odd.
  7. I tend to agree with someone in another thread that said BoE's words were just that. They were politics, rhetoric. A hawkish shift would have seen a 0.5% or 0.75% rise in IRs, IMO. Who knows. It's better than nothing, but the next meeting isn't for two months so we're basically looking at a total of a 0.25% rise for a 3 month period (i.e. ending just before the next meeting), even with inflation predicted to soon be in double digits.
  8. There's a big difference between house prices in 2019/2020 (pre-pandemic) and now. Prices have increased by crazy amounts, a fact not compensated for by the population growth since 2019/2020. Whilst I don't expect a massive 30/40% real terms crash, I do expect house prices to fall a decent amount. There has been too much cheap debt flowing around, driving HPs to crazy highs, and this year is the start of a reckoning and reset.
  9. Now at "1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent", and should rise fast in coming months. As others have said, over to you BoE..
  10. Yep, should be 12pm and published here: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/june-2022
  11. This is a worry for policy makers yes, i.e. that any interest rate rises will tip the economy into recession. The alternative is a "soft landing" where IR rises lower inflation without a recession. However another issue in the UK (for the BoE) is that the Fed are hiking IRs a lot now. This is strengthening the dollar. If the BoE lag too far behind, the pound will get weaker and weaker - and this will add to inflation because many goods (including petrol/oil) are priced in dollars. So if the BoE don't act in order to preserve consumer spending power, it will ironically add to inflation.
  12. Panic, blame the Tories, Brexit and unions. Then rant about how train drivers are overpaid. (Sorry, just covering off the mainstream newspaper's approach) But yes, it's unfortunate timing with petrol prices spiking leading and increased traveling due to the summer/nice weather. Not sure how sympathetic the public will be of these strikes.
  13. I believe the meeting (FOMC?) is today and tomorrow, with the result announced 2pm tomorrow - meaning 7pm or 8pm UK time?
  14. Here's hoping! The Nationwide remortgage deal we took out last autumn (a 1.22% 5 year fix) is now 2.89%, costing hundreds more a month. So affordability of mortgages have definitely gone down, even without looking at all the other cost of living factors. That must be having an impact.
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