Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[Freki]

6 minutes ago, Quiet Guy said:

Honestly, I try to avoid getting into the more vitriolic arguments around here; it's not worth it.

I don't have a "play book" and I don't have anything to do with Casual Observer or Lucky Larry.

Sure only posting on the Russian and Covid thread, mister "no playbook"🙃

[Quiet Guy]

15 minutes ago, Freki said:

Sure only posting on the Russian and Covid thread, mister "no playbook"🙃

The Russian and Covid threads are the most interesting to me at the minute. Years ago, I used to haunt the blog and gold bug bits of the forum. I've been here a lot longer than you.

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[Bob8]

3 hours ago, Freki said:

Sure only posting on the Russian and Covid thread, mister "no playbook"🙃

Mark G fits that fairly well too.

[Si1]

Reports of conscripted units massing in Belarus for a fresh attack on Kyiv (!).

AFU saying they need more artillery etc to deal with it. Anger being expressed at Belarus by Ukraine, commentators suggesting Ukraine may take an aggressive stance towards directly attacking and damaging the Belarus govt.

 

[shlomo]

2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

Mark G fits that fairly well too.

We all have our interests I never go to the gold or Bitcoin and am getting fed up with the bitterness and stupidity in the Russian thread, you have to agree with the posters or you are a Russian troll, 

[satsuma]

8 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Reports of conscripted units massing in Belarus for a fresh attack on Kyiv (!).

AFU saying they need more artillery etc to deal with it. Anger being expressed at Belarus by Ukraine, commentators suggesting Ukraine may take an aggressive stance towards directly attacking and damaging the Belarus govt.

 

Clearly the Russians are very very dangerous.  They are conducting all sorts of operations to attack us, this includes these forums to sow misinformation, attacks on our infrastructure (cyber and now the pipleline), and invasions of Europe (Ukraine).  Meanwhile our governments do nothing and expect the US to defend us.        Germany and France in particular are the worst offenders for inaction.  

[Staffsknot]

11 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Reports of conscripted units massing in Belarus for a fresh attack on Kyiv (!).

AFU saying they need more artillery etc to deal with it. Anger being expressed at Belarus by Ukraine, commentators suggesting Ukraine may take an aggressive stance towards directly attacking and damaging the Belarus govt.

 

The conscripted units will be a lot of poorly trained individuals being thrown in to try and bog down AFU advances.

Russian recruiters are struggling to find trained reservists as they were mostly recruited by Wagner and pushing.up daisies already

[Si1]

21 minutes ago, shlomo said:

We all have our interests I never go to the gold or Bitcoin and am getting fed up with the bitterness and stupidity in the Russian thread, you have to agree with the posters or you are a Russian troll, 

I draw the line at people who try to come up with some kind of moral justification for Russia's actions. That's all 

[Si1]

11 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

The conscripted units will be a lot of poorly trained individuals being thrown in to try and bog down AFU advances.

Russian recruiters are struggling to find trained reservists as they were mostly recruited by Wagner and pushing.up daisies already

If they attack AGAIN from Belarus, surely a military peer with Ukraine, then I can't see the moral objection to Ukraine trying to decapitate the current Belarus govt?

[Staffsknot]

2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

If they attack AGAIN from Belarus, surely a military peer with Ukraine, then I can't see the moral objection to Ukraine trying to decapitate the current Belarus govt?

No I think that is playing Russia's game and widening the conflict. Also gone from defensive to offensive and that risks Western support / gives Russia what it wants

[shlomo]

6 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I draw the line at people who try to come up with some kind of moral justification for Russia's actions. That's all 

It is not you but they do seem to come from the Russian sphere 

[Si1]

3 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

No I think that is playing Russia's game and widening the conflict. Also gone from defensive to offensive and that risks Western support / gives Russia what it wants

Fair enough. Again. You wouldn't blame Ukraine for being a bit p1ssed with Belarus though.

[Si1]

Same person

 

 

[zugzwang]

12 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Pipe down with the name calling. Jesus wept. 

Name calling and abuse. Always the same from this guy. Happy to hand it out but acts like a crybaby when he gets it back.

[Locke]

15 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

Simple - blowing up in use infrastructure on its inauguration is hardly that deniable and likely to trigger Art 5. Western nations less inclined over not used ones.

That's a good point and interesting that it didn't even occur to me that such an attack would be seen as directly attacking that nation. I guess because it's in international waters.

2 points

1. NS1&2 are also owned by Germany. Isn't an attack on them also an attack on Germany?
2. If the Yanks did Nordstream, then it's an attack on Russia, if an attack on the Norrwegian pipeline would be an Art.5. Where does NATO stand on conflicts started by a NATO member?

[satsuma]

4 minutes ago, Locke said:

That's a good point and interesting that it didn't even occur to me that such an attack would be seen as directly attacking that nation. I guess because it's in international waters.

2 points

1. NS1&2 are also owned by Germany. Isn't an attack on them also an attack on Germany?
2. If the Yanks did Nordstream, then it's an attack on Russia, if an attack on the Norrwegian pipeline would be an Art.5. Where does NATO stand on conflicts started by a NATO member?

The only party sabre rattling about taking first strike action is PooTin, clearly he has destroyed Nord Stream 2 out of desperation.  This is intended to turn the screws on Europe going into the winter and is part of a pattern of blocking gas supplies.  

[Si1]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lucky Larry]

34 minutes ago, Locke said:

Where does NATO stand on conflicts started by a NATO member?

like Iraq? well those with a moral compass take nothing to do with it and the others like the UK join in so they don't miss out on the profits

[jonb2]

12 hours ago, Lucky Larry said:

Anyone on here blaming Putin for the rise in mortgage rates or is it just Truss and her gang? 

Considering the Tories have had such a cosy relationship with Russians - I'd say both.

[jonb2]

12 hours ago, Quiet Guy said:

I respectfully disagree.

https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/norway-poland-gas-pipeline-opens-aiming-to-supress-russian-supplies/

Maybe we'll get more information later but blowing up your own pipeline you took a decade to build just as GIPL comes on line is strange behaviour.

Nobody from Europe is ever going to touch Russian energy again. Just too risky. The Nord Stream pipes are useless white elephants. Putin knows this and decided to use them as firewood to increase the flames of paranoia at home.

If he had attacked other pipelines - it would have been an act of war against NATO. Putin knows this, and couldn't handle the extra load of more fighting on more fronts.

It was Russia.

[Lucky Larry]

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

Considering the Tories have had such a cosy relationship with Russians - I'd say both.

Our recently departed PM's relationship with the friends of Putin is rather concerning , you would think under current circumstances there would be more said in Parliament and the media , meanwhile Lord Lebedev is still brushing his ermine 

[zugzwang]

Just now, Lucky Larry said:

like Iraq? well those with a moral compass take nothing to do with it and the others like the UK join in so they don't miss out on the profits

There were no profits! The neocolonial misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan left a $5 trillion hole in the ground, contemporaneously added to the US and UK national debts.

UK tag-a-longs are really only there to provide Washington with the fig-leaf of multilateralism.

[Lucky Larry]

2 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Nobody from Europe is ever going to touch Russian energy again

If a week is a long time in politics a couple of years is an ice age. If they want that gas and Putin will sell it at market price or below then deals would get done , business is business 

[zugzwang]

3 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Nobody from Europe is ever going to touch Russian energy again. Just too risky. The Nord Stream pipes are useless white elephants. Putin knows this and decided to use them as firewood to increase the flames of paranoia at home.

If he had attacked other pipelines - it would have been an act of war against NATO. Putin knows this, and couldn't handle the extra load of more fighting on more fronts.

It was Russia.

 

Europe is still using Russian oil if only by proxy through OPEC. 👇

It's up to the Germans to assert their financial independence or end up a vassal state for the rest of their days.

 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-russian-oil-imports-double-discounted

Oil-rich Saudi Arabia doubles import of discounted Russian fuel

 

[jonb2]

10 hours ago, Lucky Larry said:

Do you believe people should be free to criticise the actions of the state of Israel ? I do , I think people should be free to criticise whoever they want whether that's Putin,Zelensky or Netanyahu . Strange that in the US in some States you can criticise the US but you cannot criticise a foreign country , makes you wonder who's really in charge in the US .  it was in response to your comment below

"It does get my goat that the West has these open forums when anyone can spout anti-west shite in the face of an obvious adversary and they are tolerated"

 we either have freedom to speak out or we don't , when rulers  dictate the narrative they become dictators ,and I'm sure we both agree that dictatorships are wrong

Of course we should be able to criticise Israel, and with many good reasons.

But what about the Rohingyas?

And the disappeared of Chile under Pinochet?

And the Yazidis of Iraq?

The shipping of millions of African slaves for a couple of centuries?