Tories on course to WIN Hartlepool by-election

[zugzwang]

Grace Blakeley

 

@graceblakeley

 

The only places where Labour gained seats were those represented by candidates who actively call themselves socialists.

[bartelbe]

1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

You've completely missed the point of my post which is that "Labour" should not even have to exist as a single party and lose as a single party. Try to read my actual post next time.

There is a large percentage of people in the UK who don't see it through your eyes. We see ourselves as European, just the same as you see yourself as British and you think it is natural that British people from Wales, Scotland, Ireland (N) and England can move around the union for better opportunities, so we see the same with Europe. We don't see it in the dehumanising manner you see it, where real humans moving for better lives should be controlled and boxed in and managed to control the economy.

Also, just as an aside, your argument about "Poorer nations lose their most productive younger workers" is pure brexiter bull----.  In two ways. The evidence shows that social mobility is a good thing. The poorer nations are fast becoming richer nations inside the EU, despite your so called argument. Secondly, it's a hypocritical argument because the entire point of ending freedom of movement for brexiters was to stop the poorer people moving and only allow the "most productive younger workers".

 

When we joined the EU back in 1970s, there was open borders already. Don't talk nonsense.

 

The EU fundamentally changed when it admitted a large number of Central and Eastern European countries. That meant there were economies with very different levels of economic development in the same union and a large pool of cheap labour to be exploited. That is what caused the problems and that happened after the 70's.

 

 

[Warlord]

20 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

You certainly won't find it articulated by the right wing press whose non dom billionaire owners love this country so much they file their taxes in Bermuda.

 

Ironically  Guardian Media Group used a tax-exempt shell company in the Cayman Islands to avoid paying corporation tax when it sold its 50 per cent holding in Auto Trader to Apax Partners in 2008 

 

Did you know this?:)

Edited May 8, 2021 by Warlord

[bartelbe]

41 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

We could file this waffle under 'I'm not a racist but...'

The other reason Labour lose, calling people racist.

[DonJop12]

On 06/05/2021 at 11:01, MancTom said:

Also lots of young people vote Tory and few young people read newspapers, so newspapers cannot explain why people vote Tory. There are also several well known left wing newspapers available and people don't choose to buy them, preferring right wing ones that match their views.

I would buy The Guardian were it not £3.20 for a Saturday edition.

[debtlessmanc]

15 minutes ago, DonJop12 said:

I would buy The Guardian were it not £3.20 for a Saturday edition.

Go to a students campus, used to be 10p a copy, unless they changed

 

17 minutes ago, Warlord said:

ronically  Guardian Media Group used a tax-exempt shell company in the Cayman Islands to avoid paying corporation tax when it sold its 50 per cent holding in Auto Trader to Apax Partners in 2008 

 

They have been burning through that rapidly with their free webpage and feature writers. A pay wall will go up soon. When i have tried to point this out under their articles, it is always censored without exception

[pig]

6 hours ago, bartelbe said:

The trouble is no-one bothers to talk to the white working classes. They are just stereotyped by upper middle class Oxbridge types in the media, who haven't got a clue.

Most of my family is white working class and according to the media they don't exist. By that I mean my relatives are care workers, cleaners and work in child care. All jobs that apparently British people don't want to do, which makes s**t pay and conditions OK for some reason.

My family generally oppose immigration but don't dislike immigrants. I know that will blow the mind of middle class people, the flatcap wearing masses aren't suppose to be able to do nuance and complexity.

My uncle, who worked in steel mills and then various factory production lines, before he retired; put it best. After new member workers were let in, a lot of Poles emigrated to his home town. He actually admired their work ethic but he couldn't compete with them. He had a family to support, he couldn't compete with immigrants who were living 6 to a bedsit. They could accept worse pay than him and work more anti-social hours than he could.

These were real issues for working class people, white and yes, non-white. Having middle class leftwingers scream racist at them when they raised their concerns about the effects of immigration and free movement was neither the way to win their vote or persuade them immigration was actually a good thing.

Again with the 'white' working class ? Who according to you are too thick to become journalists so journalists are all upper middle class (white?) oxbridge stereotypes and haven't got a clue

Interestingly, listening to the radio it sounds like a lot of people DNGAF about Toffs screwing them over but are terrified of BLM, taking the knee and statue vandalism...

[winkie]

 

[dryrot]

11 hours ago, bartelbe said:

The trouble is no-one bothers to talk to the white working classes. They are just stereotyped by upper middle class Oxbridge types in the media, who haven't got a clue.

Most of my family is white working class and according to the media they don't exist. By that I mean my relatives are care workers, cleaners and work in child care. All jobs that apparently British people don't want to do, which makes s**t pay and conditions OK for some reason.

My family generally oppose immigration but don't dislike immigrants. I know that will blow the mind of middle class people, the flatcap wearing masses aren't suppose to be able to do nuance and complexity.

My uncle, who worked in steel mills and then various factory production lines, before he retired; put it best. After new member workers were let in, a lot of Poles emigrated to his home town. He actually admired their work ethic but he couldn't compete with them. He had a family to support, he couldn't compete with immigrants who were living 6 to a bedsit. They could accept worse pay than him and work more anti-social hours than he could.

These were real issues for working class people, white and yes, non-white. Having middle class leftwingers scream racist at them when they raised their concerns about the effects of immigration and free movement was neither the way to win their vote or persuade them immigration was actually a good thing.

Brilliant post. I know of builders hit in exactly the same way. Hourly rates fell to what as paid years ago. Of course, if you are a leftie lawyer or BBC apparatchik; mass immigration simply means your new kitchen fitters are cheaper. The "Poles" you mention do not compete for middle-class jobs. (If they did, The Guardian would be anti-immigrant before you could say "Racist"...)

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

8 minutes ago, dryrot said:

Brilliant post. I know of builders hit in exactly the same way. Hourly rates fell to what as paid years ago. Of course, if you are a leftie lawyer or BBC apparatchik; mass immigration simply means your new kitchen fitters are cheaper. The "Poles" you mention do not compete for middle-class jobs. (If they did, The Guardian would be anti-immigrant before you could say "Racist"...)

Strange post. I know many Poles who compete for middle-class jobs. I just don't fantasise that they are a problem.

[dryrot]

Just now, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Strange post. I know many Poles who compete for middle-class jobs. I just don't fantasise that they are a problem.

I have no interest in your fantasies, sorry.

Silly me - of course the vast majority of Poles (and other Eastern Europeans) who come here and work hard, concentrate on middle-class jobs.

[Dorkins]

5 minutes ago, dryrot said:

I have no interest in your fantasies, sorry.

Silly me - of course the vast majority of Poles (and other Eastern Europeans) who come here and work hard, concentrate on middle-class jobs.

The claim that it's only blue collar workers who work in the same fields as European immigrants is simply not true, if anything where I work (big pharma R&D) there are more first generation immigrants doing the white collar laboratory and managerial jobs than the blue collar porter/cleaner/canteen/site security jobs.

[Huggy]

https://news.sky.com/story/angela-rayner-sacked-as-labour-party-chair-by-sir-keir-starmer-sky-news-understands-12301037

Angela Rayner sacked as Labour Party chair by Sir Keir Starmer, Sky News understands

She's on the right below. Get woke, go broke....

 

[micawber]

35 minutes ago, Huggy said:

https://news.sky.com/story/angela-rayner-sacked-as-labour-party-chair-by-sir-keir-starmer-sky-news-understands-12301037

Angela Rayner sacked as Labour Party chair by Sir Keir Starmer, Sky News understands

She's on the right below. Get woke, go broke....

 

Completely detached from reality.

[dugsbody]

49 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

The claim that it's only blue collar workers who work in the same fields as European immigrants is simply not true, if anything where I work (big pharma R&D) there are more first generation immigrants doing the white collar laboratory and managerial jobs than the blue collar porter/cleaner/canteen/site security jobs.

Similar for me. My team is more than 50% foreign born. 

1 hour ago, dryrot said:

Brilliant post. I know of builders hit in exactly the same way. Hourly rates fell to what as paid years ago. Of course, if you are a leftie lawyer or BBC apparatchik; mass immigration simply means your new kitchen fitters are cheaper. The "Poles" you mention do not compete for middle-class jobs. (If they did, The Guardian would be anti-immigrant before you could say "Racist"...)

Where do you live? The SE (greater London) has had constant huge demand for trades people. Wages have gone up over all the time that immigrants have been supposedly depressing them. Go and get a quote for some building work, plumbing, gas engineer, diy, fitters, brickies. Tell me the wages are depressed.

Virtually every single study which looks into this states that there has been little to no impact on wages by immigration. People keep talking as if there is a fixed number of jobs and immigrants take them, leaving British people having to work for less. This just isn't true because people create the need for more jobs. For every person in the UK they need more plumbing, gas engineering, haircuts, lawyers, tellers, etc. It is literally the lump of labour fallacy and no matter how many times people tell you that you're repeating a fallacy you'll still stick your fingers in your ears and repeat your mantra.

Your mind was made up long ago against immigration, then you looked for ways to justify this. You've latched on to a myth, the same one that is always used to justify hating immigration. 

 

[winkie]

1 hour ago, dryrot said:

Brilliant post. I know of builders hit in exactly the same way. Hourly rates fell to what as paid years ago. Of course, if you are a leftie lawyer or BBC apparatchik; mass immigration simply means your new kitchen fitters are cheaper. The "Poles" you mention do not compete for middle-class jobs. (If they did, The Guardian would be anti-immigrant before you could say "Racist"...)

What about the future though, will the new preferred type of immigration, the educated, skilled and monied be competing for the middle-class jobs......having everything going for them with no middle-class education debt to repay?

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

2 hours ago, dryrot said:

I have no interest in your fantasies, sorry.

Silly me - of course the vast majority of Poles (and other Eastern Europeans) who come here and work hard, concentrate on middle-class jobs.

Well I live in reality and have employed Poles to middle-class jobs. A shocking revelation for racists I guess.

[24gray24]

2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Similar for me. My team is more than 50% foreign born. 

Where do you live? The SE (greater London) has had constant huge demand for trades people. Wages have gone up over all the time that immigrants have been supposedly depressing them. Go and get a quote for some building work, plumbing, gas engineer, diy, fitters, brickies. Tell me the wages are depressed.

Virtually every single study which looks into this states that there has been little to no impact on wages by immigration. People keep talking as if there is a fixed number of jobs and immigrants take them, leaving British people having to work for less. This just isn't true because people create the need for more jobs. For every person in the UK they need more plumbing, gas engineering, haircuts, lawyers, tellers, etc. It is literally the lump of labour fallacy and no matter how many times people tell you that you're repeating a fallacy you'll still stick your fingers in your ears and repeat your mantra.

Your mind was made up long ago against immigration, then you looked for ways to justify this. You've latched on to a myth, the same one that is always used to justify hating immigration. 

 

No one believes that. 

Haven't you realised? 

 

[nightowl]

3 hours ago, Huggy said:

https://news.sky.com/story/angela-rayner-sacked-as-labour-party-chair-by-sir-keir-starmer-sky-news-understands-12301037

Angela Rayner sacked as Labour Party chair by Sir Keir Starmer, Sky News understands

She's on the right below. Get woke, go broke....

 

Where have I seen that blue suit before?

Plus, what the deal with Angela's boots?  Is punk rocker boots paired pink cardigans a thing these days?

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

5 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Similar for me. My team is more than 50% foreign born. 

Where do you live? The SE (greater London) has had constant huge demand for trades people. Wages have gone up over all the time that immigrants have been supposedly depressing them. Go and get a quote for some building work, plumbing, gas engineer, diy, fitters, brickies. Tell me the wages are depressed.

Virtually every single study which looks into this states that there has been little to no impact on wages by immigration. People keep talking as if there is a fixed number of jobs and immigrants take them, leaving British people having to work for less. This just isn't true because people create the need for more jobs. For every person in the UK they need more plumbing, gas engineering, haircuts, lawyers, tellers, etc. It is literally the lump of labour fallacy and no matter how many times people tell you that you're repeating a fallacy you'll still stick your fingers in your ears and repeat your mantra.

Your mind was made up long ago against immigration, then you looked for ways to justify this. You've latched on to a myth, the same one that is always used to justify hating immigration. 

 

Spot on. 

[bartelbe]

19 hours ago, pig said:

Again with the 'white' working class ? Who according to you are too thick to become journalists so journalists are all upper middle class (white?) oxbridge stereotypes and haven't got a clue

Interestingly, listening to the radio it sounds like a lot of people DNGAF about Toffs screwing them over but are terrified of BLM, taking the knee and statue vandalism...

Nice strawman, I never said that the working class people were too thick to be journalists. You are arguing by putting words into my mouth.

Middle class, in reality only the very wealthiest of the middle classes, dominate the media not because of intelligence. They are dominant because of social connections and the internship system. Hell I am painfully middle class and I couldn't afford to work for free in London in the hope of starting a media career. For a working class person, with no family money and no savings? Virtually impossible.

Then there is the issue of social connections. Look at the media in London and you'ill notice that many of the journalists and columnists are sons and daughters of senior people in the media. Think they got there based on merit?

As for BLM and taking the knee, it depends which part of the media you are talking about. The leftwing media tends to be full of middle aged people who are desperate to be still seen as radical. They will back things like BLM so they are still seen as "down with the kids" and not sell outs. The rightwing media see it as a dog whistle issue.

I see BLM as a pointless movement imported from America. The first BLM UK protests involved protesters blocking a road to Heathrow and shouting don't shoot at baffled unarmed British bobbies. The statue protests are a direct import from America, where the southern states put of lots of Confederate statues and it is a real issue.

BLM here is a nonsense and a waste of time. Discrimination comes from wealth and poverty. Even after decades of the civil rights movement, the lives of black Americans have improved painfully slowly because in America it is taboo to mention class and discrimination based on wealth. Even if the UK movement got its dream and could pull down every statue it wanted and rewrite the history books to condemn any person they wanted, it would make no difference.

Why do you think wealthy writers in the Guardian back it? They would never back a truly radical movement that threatened to tax their ridiculous pay and take away their second homes in places like Cornwall and the Cotwolds.  BLM is like all identity politics. The leftwing media back it because it looks radical without really being radical, it doesn't threaten their assets and bank accounts.

[Dorkins]

13 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Where do you live? The SE (greater London) has had constant huge demand for trades people. Wages have gone up over all the time that immigrants have been supposedly depressing them. Go and get a quote for some building work, plumbing, gas engineer, diy, fitters, brickies. Tell me the wages are depressed.

There is a huge amount of manual work needed to bring the UK housing stock up to first world standards, trouble is most of the worst stock is held by landlords who couldn't care less or is in apartment buildings where the dysfunctional leaseholder-freeholder relationship makes it hard to complete capital projects.

[bartelbe]

13 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Similar for me. My team is more than 50% foreign born. 

Where do you live? The SE (greater London) has had constant huge demand for trades people. Wages have gone up over all the time that immigrants have been supposedly depressing them. Go and get a quote for some building work, plumbing, gas engineer, diy, fitters, brickies. Tell me the wages are depressed.

Virtually every single study which looks into this states that there has been little to no impact on wages by immigration. People keep talking as if there is a fixed number of jobs and immigrants take them, leaving British people having to work for less. This just isn't true because people create the need for more jobs. For every person in the UK they need more plumbing, gas engineering, haircuts, lawyers, tellers, etc. It is literally the lump of labour fallacy and no matter how many times people tell you that you're repeating a fallacy you'll still stick your fingers in your ears and repeat your mantra.

Your mind was made up long ago against immigration, then you looked for ways to justify this. You've latched on to a myth, the same one that is always used to justify hating immigration. 

 

 

The problem with such studies is they work by comparing jobs with lots of immigrant employees and those without. They then find no difference in the wage growth in both and conclude that immigration doesn't depress wages. When an alternative explanation is immigration depresses wages for all working class jobs, not just those with lots of immigrant labour.

To truly test whether immigration depresses pay you would need a control economy in which there had been been no mass migration and compare it to our own. An economy identical to our own. Since such an economy doesn't exist, we are reliant on very flawed economic models about how migration affects the labour market.

If you're right and immigration has no effect on the labour market, how do explain employer complaints about brexit? Employers in hospitality and other industries with large numbers of EU workers are complaining that they can't get the staff to replace their EU staff and their businesses make become nonviable.

If you're right about how the labour market works, that should be impossible. Those employers should be able to simply offer brits exactly the same pay and conditions and find staff.

If they have to offer better pay and conditions, then the real world has refuted all the studies you have read about how immigration affects the labour market

 

[shlomo]

13 minutes ago, bartelbe said:

Nice strawman, I never said that the working class people were too thick to be journalists. You are arguing by putting words into my mouth.

Middle class, in reality only the very wealthiest of the middle classes, dominate the media not because of intelligence. They are dominant because of social connections and the internship system. Hell I am painfully middle class and I couldn't afford to work for free in London in the hope of starting a media career. For a working class person, with no family money and no savings? Virtually impossible.

Then there is the issue of social connections. Look at the media in London and you'ill notice that many of the journalists and columnists are sons and daughters of senior people in the media. Think they got there based on merit?

As for BLM and taking the knee, it depends which part of the media you are talking about. The leftwing media tends to be full of middle aged people who are desperate to be still seen as radical. They will back things like BLM so they are still seen as "down with the kids" and not sell outs. The rightwing media see it as a dog whistle issue.

I see BLM as a pointless movement imported from America. The first BLM UK protests involved protesters blocking a road to Heathrow and shouting don't shoot at baffled unarmed British bobbies. The statue protests are a direct import from America, where the southern states put of lots of Confederate statues and it is a real issue.

BLM here is a nonsense and a waste of time. Discrimination comes from wealth and poverty. Even after decades of the civil rights movement, the lives of black Americans have improved painfully slowly because in America it is taboo to mention class and discrimination based on wealth. Even if the UK movement got its dream and could pull down every statue it wanted and rewrite the history books to condemn any person they wanted, it would make no difference.

Why do you think wealthy writers in the Guardian back it? They would never back a truly radical movement that threatened to tax their ridiculous pay and take away their second homes in places like Cornwall and the Cotwolds.  BLM is like all identity politics. The leftwing media back it because it looks radical without really being radical, it doesn't threaten their assets and bank accounts.

A very good post, I do understand the bit about children of the elite in the media getting a helping hand which is just not available to the rest of us

[Dorkins]

52 minutes ago, bartelbe said:

 

The problem with such studies is they work by comparing jobs with lots of immigrant employees and those without. They then find no difference in the wage growth in both and conclude that immigration doesn't depress wages. When an alternative explanation is immigration depresses wages for all working class jobs, not just those with lots of immigrant labour.

To truly test whether immigration depresses pay you would need a control economy in which there had been been no mass migration and compare it to our own. An economy identical to our own. Since such an economy doesn't exist, we are reliant on very flawed economic models about how migration affects the labour market.

If you're right and immigration has no effect on the labour market, how do explain employer complaints about brexit? Employers in hospitality and other industries with large numbers of EU workers are complaining that they can't get the staff to replace their EU staff and their businesses make become nonviable.

If you're right about how the labour market works, that should be impossible. Those employers should be able to simply offer brits exactly the same pay and conditions and find staff.

If they have to offer better pay and conditions, then the real world has refuted all the studies you have read about how immigration affects the labour market

 

Here's low immigration Japan:

 

Most G20 countries have had immigration rates similar to the UK and have been able to maintain real wage growth since 2008. It seems the UK is just one of the weaker economies like Japan or Italy, not a total economic basketcase but no longer in the first rank of advanced nations either. Moderate economic mismanagement has moderate negative consequences.

Edited May 9, 2021 by Dorkins