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House Price Crash Forum


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About bartelbe

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  1. You probably know the Greek myth of Cassandra, the priestess doomed to be right and never believed. That is how I feel when discussing the housing market with colleagues, friends and family. All of them are convinced that house prices will continue to rise forever, low interest rates will be with us forever and I am mad to be reluctant to join this market. Sometimes I find myself thinking they must be right, maybe economic laws have been suspended and house prices really can increase massively above inflation forever? 8% annual increase and people think this is sustainable. Then I re
  2. Nothing must be allowed to undermine the almighty housing market. No doubt the way inflation is measured or the inflation target itself will be changed, all to make sure that the housing bubble continues to inflate.
  3. The Guardian is staffed by idiots, the housing boom has nothing to do with a housing shortage. It is a classic asset bubble fueled by cheap credit. The housing shortage non-sense is used by people who want to pretend this bubble is different to all the others and won't end in tears.
  4. The reason there are so many inflation threads, is inflation is the great hope to break the housing bubble and return sanity to the economy. The government will do anything to appease landlords and home owners but even they can't ignore runaway inflation. Inflation means interest rate increases and a nice big house price crash.
  5. You get constant whining from landlords on newspaper comment sections. Expected in the likes of the Mail but even the Guardian is infested with BLT landlords. All of them outraged that they have to pay any tax or their tenants make even the most modest demands on them. When I debate them I simply point out that every business has costs, that the costs of being a landlord are trivial compared to running say a retail business and if they can't make ago of it, they aren't very good business people and should sell up. This causes howls of outrage from landlords who seem to think their bu
  6. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/23/serious-inflation-coming-time-start-addressing-now/ Article on inflation, pay walled but easy wall to get round. The argument in the article is inflation is going to increase and there are signs of that already happening. With increases in the oil price, input costs for manufacturers and the end of temporary VAT reductions. The article also argues that central banks can't bail politicians out, that even if central banks ignore inflation, interest rate yields on government bonds are increasing. If this is true, it is great news for
  7. In other news bears s**t in the woods. Of course printing money and low interest rates are driving the runaway housing bubble. Yet our idiot government wants to abolish planning restrictions, so we can have some nice ghost estates when the housing bubble implodes. What is amazing is most people think this runaway housing bubble will go on forever.
  8. It will get interesting when inflation hits. Will our idiot elite prop up the runaway housing market again or will they increase interest rates to prevent runaway inflation.
  9. The question is will the Bank of England be truly independent and increase rates. Or will inflation be allowed to run out of control, to save the housing bubble? The reality is, we have had runaway inflation for years. If housing costs were accurately reflected in the inflation figures, interest rates would be at a sensible level and we wouldn't have a housing bubble.
  10. If you can't see the difference between free movement inside the UK and the EU; I have to question your intelligence. The problem with EU free movement was the big differences in wealth between EU states. Which gave employers a vast pool of easily exploitable labour to drive down pay and conditions.
  11. Then explain it to me? If the Lump of Labour fallacy is correct, why is the lack of migrant labour creating a labour shortage. According to you that shouldn't be happening. Do you have any arguments? Or are cheap childish insults your level?
  12. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/17/uk-faces-labour-shortage-as-covid-and-brexit-fuel-exodus-of-overseas-workers The article says there is a labour shortage, due to a lack of EU workers and overseas workers. In some areas there are 20 jobs per job seeker and employers are having to compete for staff. This is particularly true in the hospitality sector, were horror of horrors, employers might have to offer better terms and conditions. Now open border advocates here have repeatedly told me that migrant labour doesn't drive down pay and conditions. That if I think that I am
  13. I keep being told that mass migration has zero effect on pay and conditions. If that is the case, why are businesses and the Guardian making a fuss? Employers will be able to offer exactly the same pay and conditions to locals and have no problem filling vacancies. If employers are forced to offer higher pay and better terms to attract staff, those who claim freedom of movement and mass migration has no impact on the labour market will be proved wrong.
  14. So I have stirred a hornets nest here. Lets answer a few points. Anyone who thinks this developers charter is about lowering houses prices or building affordable homes is a fool. Developers didn't pay 11m in donations to the Tories so they could build millions of low profit affordable houses, let alone drive down house prices and the value of their developments. The last round of planning reform led to a large number of new estates being built in my area, mainly on greenfield site. I have yet to see one affordable house built. The vast majority are poorly built executive detaches, mo
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