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House Price Crash Forum

bartelbe

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Everything posted by bartelbe

  1. Sorry but that is a myth. Most techs are loss making and most will never make a profit. Investors are chasing unicorns and con artists are taking advantage of the situation.
  2. Yeah because a first country like Britain can win a race to the bottom and compete with developing countries based on cost. We have to compete based on higher productivity and you achieve that with investment, which includes investment in training and skill. It is people like you who are destroying the British economy.
  3. Heard that argument before and it doesn't work for two reasons. The first is a higher minimum wage is a floor below which pay can't fall. With an infinite supply of labour, all blue collar jobs tend to fall to this floor. Before mass free movement from new member states, many working class jobs were paid above the minimum wage level. The second problem is enforcement. We had entire factories operating illegally in a major UK city and you expect voters to believe the government has the will to enforce minimum wage rules? Under the last Labour government their was virtually no prosecutions for breaking the law and even now it is too easy to for bad employers to dodge the rules. Whereas as a labour shortages hits good and bad employers equally. Bad employers can't offer poverty pay and undercut good employers because if they do, they wont have any staff.
  4. Loads of baby boomers on here going on about lazy British workers no longer having an excuse. This frustrates me because older people don't seem to understand how much the world of work has changed since their day. We are suppose to have a flexible labour market, in which people nimbly jump from job to job and industry to industry, throughout their working lives. Workers are suppose to use their experience in on industry as transferable skills to another. Sounds great doesn't it? Slight problem, its ********. Employers have actually got less flexible, not more. Recruitment is dominated by a computer says no culture, in which every job requires years of very specific experience and employers offer no training for people with transferable skills to learn the role. It is even worse for young people, who find that the computer says no culture completely locks them out of all but low skilled jobs. They can have a ton of qualifications but without the work experience, that is all worthless. Employers have got away with this because they have been able to import staff on a massive scale from the EU and via key worker/skilled worker visa schemes. Why pay to train your staff, when you can get staff trained by a company in another country? Take the HGV driver shortage. This could be easily solved by employers. It take 8-10 weeks to train a driver. So if enough training places and high enough pay is offered, the shortage will be gone in a year, with zero migrant labour required. Employers don't want to do this, so they won't fund training and will use shortages in the shops as a weapon to force the government to relax migration rules. This will happen sector by sector, till we are back in the same old toxic situation. In which British workers are locked out of employment because British employers wont invest in training new staff.
  5. To understand what is going on, look at the tech sector in America. They are creating millionaires by the 1000's, so is this an example of brilliant wealth creation? Nope, the majority of tech companies are loss making, even big names like Tesla have never made a profit in their existence. Most tech companies exist to create shares, which can be flogged to the market and then the owners cash out as quickly as possible. It is a bubble, really a scam, fueled by cheap money. The same thing is happening with the UK housing market. Prices are reaching insane levels because of insanely low interest rates. Lots of cheap money looking for a return and you get an inevitable asset bubble. The moment there is the slightest hint of inflation, which will force incompetent central banks to finally increase interest rates. The party is over. Increased rates mean people who bought with insanely large mortgages won't be able to make their payments, they will face repossessions. The market will be flooded with houses and prices will crash.
  6. It is the wrong tax and typical of the Tories. It hits younger workers and older people, even in work, are exempt. So the heavily taxed younger people, who are already being crushed by the housing market, get hit again for something for the elderly. If there is going to be a tax increase, it should be income tax, so the old pay their fair share.
  7. Lets clear a few things up. The idea the country is not full comes from a deluded Tory minister who looked at Google Earth and noticed only 10% of land is built on. This is true but does not mean we can build on the other 90% and safely increase our population by 10x. The population the country can carry is determined by other factors. We need land for food production, to supply water, to get rid of waste and yes we need space for wildlife. Try producing food with no insects and see were that gets you. Not to mention our standard of living. A country 100% built on would be a dystopian hell. As for the population? My guess is much higher than 67 million. Supermarkets estimated it is actually 77-80 million based on food demand. That might be high but the reality is, the British government lost control of the borders year ago. Illegal migration has been happening on a massive scale.
  8. The housing crash could well have been brought forward by the idiot government. By cutting stamp duty they have compressed years of demand and price increases into a narrow window. Where is demand going to come from now the insane stamp duty holiday is over?
  9. Sorry but that argument doesn't work. It take 8-10 weeks to train a HGV driver, so it is easy to fix skill shortages with local workers. Most jobs in catering, hospitality and other labour shortage industries are low skilled. No training required, offer better pay and you get the staff. Training a doctor takes 7-10 years, so it is completely different. Besides having a targeted visa for medical staff is not the same as the free movement free for all that destroyed pay and conditions in this country. I would also question whether it is sustainable, in the long run, to steal medical staff trained by other countries? Is it ethical to steal medical staff from poorer countries? Who after all paid to train those staff.
  10. Not to mention the fact that increased inflation would force up interest rates and expose the runaway housing bubble.
  11. The BS is from people like yourself, who are trying to use short term shortages to force a return to free movement with poorer countries. If employers don't have access to cheap labour, they will have to pay locals more. These shortages are not going to be permanent.
  12. The problem I have with the reporting of these labour shortages, especially by the likes of the Guardian, is they are portrayed as an entirely bad things. That isn't the case, if you're a British HGV driver or a Brit who only has the option of taking a low skilled jobs, these are great times. The laws of supply and demand are kicking in, employers will have to offer better pay and conditions. Employers, shock horror, might even have to pay Brits to train for jobs like HGV driver. I doubt the good times will last. Rich people aren't paying bribes to our corrupt politicians, so the plebs can get decent paying jobs. A visa scheme will be created, free movement will come back in all but name and the good times will be over.
  13. The problem with refugee policy, is there aren't any refugees. Even those genuinely fleeing wars are not seeking temporary asylum. They will move here permanently. The choices we make are not just about what is happening now, they will affect generations to come. To see this look at the results of past migration policy. Those who ran immigration policy in the 50's and 60's thought they were bringing in temporary guest workers, to deal with labour shortages. They had no idea that they would be bringing in permanent communities that would one day number in the millions. There was no long term plan, no idea how to integrate these communities and we see the results today. With communities living separate parallel lives, first generation in every generation and a fractured society. It would be foolish to repeat the mistakes of the past. If we must have mass migration, then we need a long term plan about how that migration is to be managed and it is completely taboo to discuss that. So the policy of every party is to muddle along with no plan. With parties that favour more open borders trying to shutdown the debate around the issue by screaming racist at anyone who questions their policies.
  14. For me this is one of the tell tale signs of a runaway housing bubble. Greedy developers and owners who think they can get absurd prices for houses in bad locations. A good example is a barn conversion near me, which the developer want 1.25 million for. Fair enough you might think, the photos make it look delightful. What the misleading photos don't show is the dual carriageway that runs right next to the property. Who is their right mind is going to spend over a million pounds to live next to traffic noise and fumes? Yet in the insane world of the bubble, the developer feels entitled that kind of asking price.
  15. It depends on inflation, at the moment the BoE are ignoring inflation because nothing must be allowed to interfere with the holy and sacred housing bubble. However if their bet is wrong and inflation really takes hold, they will be forced to increase rates and that changes everything. The housing bubble is not being fueled by a lack of supply but by cheap money. Take that away and the bubble implodes. No more cheap mortgages and those that borrowed assuming that rates will never increase will suddenly face repayments they can't make. This will flood the market with houses at the very point people can't afford mortgages and you will get a collapse in prices.
  16. The most interesting take away from that is we can't build our way out of the bubble. Planning reform is a waste of time because developers are bribing the Tories to be allowed to build investment properties on greenfield sites. They have no interest in reducing house prices.
  17. Yes but that is the problem. The average mortgage length is 25 years, betting that interest rates won't go up in that period is a hell of a gamble. If inflation takes off and it is very possible it could. Central banks may well be forced to increase rates in the next year, let alone the next 25. If people think they are going to be bailed out by this Tory government, they are living in lala land. Look at how they have abandoned vast numbers of leaseholders in flats with fire risks, making such flats effectively worthless. If the housing market collapses, the Tories won't bail people out.
  18. You probably know the Greek myth of Cassandra, the priestess doomed to be right and never believed. That is how I feel when discussing the housing market with colleagues, friends and family. All of them are convinced that house prices will continue to rise forever, low interest rates will be with us forever and I am mad to be reluctant to join this market. Sometimes I find myself thinking they must be right, maybe economic laws have been suspended and house prices really can increase massively above inflation forever? 8% annual increase and people think this is sustainable. Then I remember that this has happened in every bubble, every time people thought it would be different this time. That in the main people are basically unthinking sheep, that go with the herd and that includes so called "experts". That the small minority of people capable of independent thought and rationally looking the evidence have always been proved to be right in the long run. Still it is not easy to be the only sane person in a world that has seemingly gone mad.
  19. Nothing must be allowed to undermine the almighty housing market. No doubt the way inflation is measured or the inflation target itself will be changed, all to make sure that the housing bubble continues to inflate.
  20. The Guardian is staffed by idiots, the housing boom has nothing to do with a housing shortage. It is a classic asset bubble fueled by cheap credit. The housing shortage non-sense is used by people who want to pretend this bubble is different to all the others and won't end in tears.
  21. The reason there are so many inflation threads, is inflation is the great hope to break the housing bubble and return sanity to the economy. The government will do anything to appease landlords and home owners but even they can't ignore runaway inflation. Inflation means interest rate increases and a nice big house price crash.
  22. You get constant whining from landlords on newspaper comment sections. Expected in the likes of the Mail but even the Guardian is infested with BLT landlords. All of them outraged that they have to pay any tax or their tenants make even the most modest demands on them. When I debate them I simply point out that every business has costs, that the costs of being a landlord are trivial compared to running say a retail business and if they can't make ago of it, they aren't very good business people and should sell up. This causes howls of outrage from landlords who seem to think their businesses should be able to run with zero taxes, zero effort on their part and zero costs Their level of entitlement is obscene.
  23. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/23/serious-inflation-coming-time-start-addressing-now/ Article on inflation, pay walled but easy wall to get round. The argument in the article is inflation is going to increase and there are signs of that already happening. With increases in the oil price, input costs for manufacturers and the end of temporary VAT reductions. The article also argues that central banks can't bail politicians out, that even if central banks ignore inflation, interest rate yields on government bonds are increasing. If this is true, it is great news for those locked of the housing market. Inflation will force interest rates up and that will hit those who have bought into the housing bubble with mortgages they are can barely afford. The increased mortgage repayments will cause defaults and forced sales. This will flood the market with houses, while at the same time higher mortgage costs crash demand. The combination will crash house prices across the country. It looks like we are heading back to the early 90's.
  24. In other news bears s**t in the woods. Of course printing money and low interest rates are driving the runaway housing bubble. Yet our idiot government wants to abolish planning restrictions, so we can have some nice ghost estates when the housing bubble implodes. What is amazing is most people think this runaway housing bubble will go on forever.
  25. It will get interesting when inflation hits. Will our idiot elite prop up the runaway housing market again or will they increase interest rates to prevent runaway inflation.
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