micawber

I know that this is totally unfair but you have to LOL with hindsight at the second post on this thread.

I was trying to avoid the "I" word lest someone gets over-excited.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was no crash (>20%) but a slow grind down in nominal value over the next 10 years, such that the the price to income ratio reverted to a new mean of say 5 or 6.

Mainly true (to exclude home from portfolio calculation), however you do need to ensure that you can continue to service the home from the income/capital withdrawals that your portfolio generates. I work on a maintenance budget of 1% of the home value per year. That should be adequate to pay for new roof, windows, boilers, etc over the course of many years.

OK. I'll bite. Do you have a particular index you are using? I checked one which confirmed your assertion that UK was declining, but had France lower. It ranked Australia higher than UK for climate (really?). And in general there really wasn't much between most of the countries. Certainly not enough to warrant a massive upheaval if only being done for QoL.

It's what I expect when the tax code is so stupidly complicated. We should have a flat rate of tax applied throughout to all things - income, capital gains and land value - with no allowances and no seperate NI. Everyone should have skin in the game.

Retired 5 years ago. I know that my small pension shall be eroded by inflation > 5%. Pension only just exceeds BRT threshold. Minimize all tax. All possible future expenses are saved up for each month and held in Premium Bonds. Return of capital most important. Downsizing for a second time to a home providing minimal comfortable mortgage free living. Remaining funds invested a la Golden Butterfly portfolio. I have no idea what will happen and when, so I'm invested to respond well whatever happens. As one asset class falls, funds are rebalanced from the best performing assets.

Looks like they were built pre-1980 so probably well protected!

"ONLY CASH BUYERS, OR BUYERS WITH A VERY LARGE DEPOSIT should apply" 😄

Actually, I think that it's a fate share by the whole of the developed world. I follow David Hunter's macro view of things. He thinks that there is one more cycle left before financial armegedon. He sees a market crash within a year or so, followed by spending like you haven't yet seen, then inflation and then capitulation as the developed countries realise that they can no longer afford the generous schemes to date. Then, around the end of 2020's, things will look very very bleak. I'm saving up for my popcorn now.

I was teasing of course, but you did nearly make me spit out my coffee. Well done.

You're not an RT bot, are you?

Yes. But it's not well known (well it wasn't by me!) that a largish percentage of houses are not on the register. It only became compulsory to get added for houses sold in the last 20 years or so.

The SDLT holiday certainly has distorted the market. I cannot see Q3 sales being that high. I suspect that many chains will collapse once people realise that they cannot make the EoQ2 deadline for sales >250K. I know that the SDLT is a tiny proportion of the sale price but if you don't have a few K lying around and the bank wont lend it then you're stuffed (unless you can renegotiate the price). And, nothing to do with this thread, but rather than create a new topic: I completed the sale of my house in mid-Jan and the entry is still not in the Land registry data set 4+ months late

Those Bacon Lettuce and Tomato landlords - even worse than the BTL brigade.