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House Price Crash Forum


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About dryrot

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  1. Well done! As I said, I know nowt about coins (I feel a bit like the old poker saying: "if you cant see the loser at the poker table, its you" :)) But if you made 7,500 %, you must have bought at £300 or so. And there must be many in the same position, and some got BTC almost for nothing. I am wary of buying at £20k - let alone £60k - when millions of free BTC can be dumped by those in early - or the founders. Moreso Dogecoin and all the rest. I'll sit back and observe!
  2. Wew lad! I noted this: "In the first quarter of 2022, Coinbase posted a loss of $430 million amid a 19% drop in monthly users. The company has said that trading is likely to keep going down in the second quarter. " Buy the dips? Also at: https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/11/coinbase-shares-go-thunkadunk-88-from-high-amid-crypto-chaos-plunging-revenues-huge-loss-new-paradigm-where-gambling-tokens-blow-up-the-casinos/ My Fiat in Lloyds merrily loses value - but at least if the black horse goes t*ts up I can withdraw my deposit... (I have no BTC and dont really comment - its all a wonderland to me - "algorithmic stablecoin" anyone?)
  3. Hi not a classic but great observation as usual. Cartman's mum becomes an EA, and Cartman copies her. Much skewering of EA poses. Worth a view IMO - https://www.avclub.com/south-park-recap-season-25-episode-3-1848552797 "we’re introduced to the finer points of the profession—namely taking a business photo that involves a demented grin, crossing your arms, and leaning backward at such a sharp and awkward angle that your bones break. While the ghastly professional photo of a real estate agent is by no means a new phenomenon, South Park finds such a true and specific way to make fun of it that you wonder why another comedy series hasn’t already pushed it to such extremes."
  4. Older than many here. After a lete start. I worked in Germany from 85-88. Great to have the job after college. Houses didnt inflate in Germany then (old Bundesbank kept inflation low, until Kohl smashed it during reunification. Bundesbank Chairman resigned. ) Anyway I remember visiting friends in the UK during that period and listening to the "my house earned more than I did"-style dinner party talk. Oh well, I missed out again. Transferred back to UK in 1988 and all I could get on a £15k salary was a 1-bed studio in Berkshire. Thank heavens I didnt buy, just watched IRs rise and values fall. Many were in trouble... I confess to Schadenfreude a bit and bought in 1998 Brown should have raised IRs in 2003, but since then QE has kept the bubble going. I dont think any Gov wants to pull the plug. On the other hand a good friend as made £££ in property, borrowing all he could - and more - and buying in London.
  5. Bob Cratchit worked for a tough boss, Scrooge, who learns his lesson wrt being a miser. Ms Hudson's parents never worked, and as far as I can see, travelled around the UK, moving whenever they liked, expecting pleasant accommodation every where. Quote: "After that council house, we moved around a lot, up and down the country, taking in Kent, Durham, Lancashire and East Anglia. We lived in homeless B&Bs, bedsits, council houses and slum private rentals. I think there were about 16 places – possibly more, but I lost count" I sympathise with her predicament, but doubt if even I have enough cash to provide them with a comfortable lifestyle. Have you seen "I, Daniel Blake"? Powerful stuff, and moving. But Katie Morgan, forced into prostitution, has two children, by two different husbands. Did neither of these fathers expect to provide for their offspring?
  6. Ms Hudson is way ahead of you - from a review of "Lowdown": "When Kerry Hudson was seven and living in the Scottish town of Airdrie, her mother took her and her baby sister to a neighbour’s flat, where the adults all got drunk" https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/may/08/lowborn-by-kerry-hudson-review-a-life-lived-at-the-edges
  7. I don't know how the WFH changes will work out longterm - but all sorts of places become viable when a 1+ hour commute is only needed once or twice a week (and you dont have to be in the office for 9:00 either). IMO vast numbers of London-outskirts-crappy-flats were only sold as they enabled a daily commute of 30 minutes,
  8. I couldn't find this - apologies if already posted. But fascinating piece on Evergrande's foray into the amusement park biz.... https://www.businessinsider.com/evergrandes-most-bizarre-holdings-amusement-parks-all-over-china-2021-10
  9. We have all matured, our youthful beauty evolving to a noble patrician handsomeness?
  10. More analysis - really the Chinese housing bubble, which of course is Evergrande's swamp... https://www.aier.org/article/the-case-of-evergrande-is-there-a-housing-bubble-in-china/ "The valuation of the Chinese housing market today is double the valuation of the US housing market, even though China’s GDP is 25 percent lower than the United States.’ In the Japanese housing bubble that burst in the 1990s, the market valuation at the peak was also double that of the US housing market."
  11. Great news! Brexit winning again! Though I wish Shell had moved North, rather than London. But its still excellent news. BBC take: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59288593
  12. Back to the OP... I have a small flat and a small house. No mortgage on either. The flat made me an accidental landlord (I moved into the house with my partner). The flat has been an excellent investment... I hate the UK property market with a passion, but I have to live in this $£%ing world...
  13. An interesting take from Wolfstreet - China is covered with empty flats, bought in anticipation of capital growth, and prices are now falling... (how many london flats have been bought for similar reasons...) Anyway https://wolfstreet.com/2021/10/22/chinas-model-of-dictated-economic-growth-blew-up/ "And by late 2018, 87% of home purchases were by people who already owned at least one home. They were buying to speculate in real estate. The numbers are just gigantic. There were about 1.6 million acres of residential floor space under construction at the end of 2020, according to government data, cited by the Wall Street Journal. That would equate to tens of thousands of apartment towers. I did a little math. The average apartment size in China is said to be 60 square meters, according to the internet. That’s 646 square feet. New construction may be larger on average, but we’ll run with that number. So 1.6 million acres of floor space under construction, at 646 square feet per apartment on average, would mean that there are 108 million apartments under construction. Let that sink in for a moment: 108 million apartments under construction, when urban homeownership is already 90% and when the working-age population has been declining for nearly a decade. So this has been the business model: Build it and they will buy because apartments have become financialized investment products purchased for capital gains, and not yield, since relatively few of these apartments were rented out. But there are carrying costs for apartments. If they’re not rented out, and if they’re dropping in prices, investors get into a very sour mood very quickly, and they’ll go demonstrating in the streets, at which point the government starts thinking about bailouts to avoid a social explosion. But even bailouts cannot revive the old business model that led to all this. It doesn’t come at a surprise. The warnings have been sounded for years. What’s surprising is that it took so long. Total sales among China’s 100 largest property developers plunged by 36% in September from a year earlier, according the Wall Street Journal. Sales by the 10 biggest developers, including Evergrande, collapsed by 44%. Developers resorted to discounts to dump apartments, and those discounts hit prices in the overall market. Home prices dropped in 16 out of 31 divisions – that’s the 23 provinces and the cities that are administered by the central government. This was the first time since March 2015 that home prices dropped in a majority of the 31 divisions, according to official data. "
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