House Price Indices Wed Sep 2nd

[rantnrave]

Nationwide out at 7am followed by Land Registry later in the morning.

[PalmerEldritch]

Nationwide I expect to be up monthly at least 1% reflecting the stamp duty giveaway. Fully expect large falls from Nov/Dec onwards when the Great Recession finally kicks in.

Mass unemployment and Brexit aren’t particularly great levers for house price growth.

[This time]

Nationwide is going to be something silly like +5%. Land Reg is May? -0.7%.

[Switch625]

Anything less than a return to April figures, pre the latest prop (i.e. £222,915) will be a very positive sign for impending falls. Fully expect it to be above this level though and as @PalmerEldritch points out lots of pain on the way.

[Doner Kebab]

Cheers as usual rantnrave.

Like all of the above I'm unfortunately expecting another small rise.

The more bad news we get the better in my opinion as we move towards the winter. Unemployment up, Remainer press prophesying doom, tax rises.

Just need to get this (and possibly next months) stamp duty giveaway, pent up, utter madness house rises and the 2nd quarter GDP 'rebound' and we will hopefully be entering hard cold reality this winter.

[Si1]

40 minutes ago, Doner Kebab said:

Cheers as usual rantnrave.

Like all of the above I'm unfortunately expecting another small rise.

The more bad news we get the better in my opinion as we move towards the winter. Unemployment up, Remainer press prophesying doom, tax rises.

Just need to get this (and possibly next months) stamp duty giveaway, pent up, utter madness house rises and the 2nd quarter GDP 'rebound' and we will hopefully be entering hard cold reality this winter.

+1

[Trump Invective]

Rises are fine for now, whatever, it's what they do to protect against any impending falls that matters

[dpg50000]

Up 2% M-O-M to reach an all-time high, to no-one's surprise......

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2020/Aug_2020.pdf

[captainb]

Has anyone commented on the mortgages given? 

Those on here saying "banks are not lending" looking at the july data that was fictional as per ususal

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

Edited September 2, 2020 by captainb

[Pebbles]

To be honest there was a few on the stamp duty holiday thread who said it would have little affect. They are looking a bit silly now.

[Former postman]

No surprise. Bulltrap

[adarmo]

The second the sdlt holiday was given this was baked in.

[Smiley George]

The British public are a crowd of blithering simpletons - discuss.

The VI’s and Mr Sunak have played a blinder and the public have fallen for it. The FOMO effect post pandemic makes no sense whatsoever if you stop for a second and look at what is actually going on in the UK and world economies. There is plenty of information in the public domain from the likes of the ONS and BOE predicting falls of around 15% by the end of next year.

We’re still viewing houses at the minute but the quality is low and asking prices are stupid. We met a rare breed yesterday an honest EA, he spoke about difficulty getting instructions as he try’s to be sensible and set expectations when valuing. One house he valued has gone under offer, at 15k over what he valued at and the vendor rang him up to gloat “see I would’ve lost money if I’d gone with you”. There are 5 houses in the chain he’s just become a part of. The EA’s response, “I’ll see you in 16 weeks when it collapses”

[rantnrave]

20 minutes ago, adarmo said:

The second the sdlt holiday was given this was baked in.

Yep. Lots of people ready to pay £5k more to save £3k...

[rantnrave]

Data from late August:

https://propertyindustryeye.com/demand-for-property-continues-to-soar-bym-index/

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

23 minutes ago, adarmo said:

The second the sdlt holiday was given this was baked in.

The first decent frosts will bring the chill of reality and no furlough.

[captainb]

9 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

The British public are a crowd of blithering simpletons - discuss.

The VI’s and Mr Sunak have played a blinder and the public have fallen for it. The FOMO effect post pandemic makes no sense whatsoever if you stop for a second and look at what is actually going on in the UK and world economies. There is plenty of information in the public domain from the likes of the ONS and BOE predicting falls of around 15% by the end of next year.

We’re still viewing houses at the minute but the quality is low and asking prices are stupid. We met a rare breed yesterday an honest EA, he spoke about difficulty getting instructions as he try’s to be sensible and set expectations when valuing. One house he valued has gone under offer, at 15k over what he valued at and the vendor rang him up to gloat “see I would’ve lost money if I’d gone with you”. There are 5 houses in the chain he’s just become a part of. The EA’s response, “I’ll see you in 16 weeks when it collapses”

Although there is little relevance in those figures taken blindly. 

We all know the economy was shut for 3 months so you expect a fall YoY of that magnitude. What was happening in April to june though is little relevance once we have opened up. 

What matters is what's the size of the economy jan 21 versus jan 20. 

Edited September 2, 2020 by captainb

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

I'd be interested to see London vs the rest of the nation...

[definitelynotanagent]

28 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Yep. Lots of people ready to pay £5k more to save £3k...

you are missing the point of the SDLT holiday. 

The point with the SDLT holiday is that you don't need to save up an extra 10-15k in cash, so buying becomes a possibility for many, many more people. The extra cost of the house can go onto the mortgage.

[satsuma]

It’s a bit like the economic version of the twilight zone.  The press are reporting an entire new category of social class, nouveau broke (middle class, high salary, high life, no savings, redundant).  The press are reporting sky high House prices (stamp duty holiday, bouncy cheque loans, mania).  In the mean time press is reporting tax increases for the self employed!   I get it that they are trying to prevent a depression but I’m not liking the method.  

[definitelynotanagent]

36 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

The British public are a crowd of blithering simpletons - discuss.

The VI’s and Mr Sunak have played a blinder and the public have fallen for it. The FOMO effect post pandemic makes no sense whatsoever if you stop for a second and look at what is actually going on in the UK and world economies. There is plenty of information in the public domain from the likes of the ONS and BOE predicting falls of around 15% by the end of next year.

We’re still viewing houses at the minute but the quality is low and asking prices are stupid. We met a rare breed yesterday an honest EA, he spoke about difficulty getting instructions as he try’s to be sensible and set expectations when valuing. One house he valued has gone under offer, at 15k over what he valued at and the vendor rang him up to gloat “see I would’ve lost money if I’d gone with you”. There are 5 houses in the chain he’s just become a part of. The EA’s response, “I’ll see you in 16 weeks when it collapses”

I think a lot of people think that the govt will do whatever it takes to keep house prices high, including helicopter money. If you believe that to be the case, in that scenario, it might not be so stupid to buy a house, as opposed to sitting on a pile of cash and paying rent.

 

 

[satsuma]

10 minutes ago, definitelynotanagent said:

I think a lot of people think that the govt will do whatever it takes to keep house prices high, including helicopter money. If you believe that to be the case, in that scenario, it might not be so stupid to buy a house, as opposed to sitting on a pile of cash and paying rent.

 

 

Your not wrong, it’s a realistic outcome and helicopter money would allow the government to take final control of every aspect of life, no action untaxed, no market movement without a response, frequent tax changes and frequent bailouts. 

[Voice of Doom]

From the Guardian's live business blog.

here’s a note of caution from Andrew Montlake, managing director at UK mortgage broker, Coreco:

“Two words: reality check. As strong as the property market is right now, it will not last.

“Demand is understandably strong after lockdown and the added bonus of the stamp duty holiday, but unemployment is rising by the day and the economic outlook is highly uncertain as the furlough scheme ends.

“In the final months of the year we will start to see a reversal in the current rate of house price growth, as the true impact of Covid-19 on the economy shows through.

[Trump Invective]

Just now, Voice of Doom said:

From the Guardian's live business blog.

here’s a note of caution from Andrew Montlake, managing director at UK mortgage broker, Coreco:

“Two words: reality check. As strong as the property market is right now, it will not last.

“Demand is understandably strong after lockdown and the added bonus of the stamp duty holiday, but unemployment is rising by the day and the economic outlook is highly uncertain as the furlough scheme ends.

“In the final months of the year we will start to see a reversal in the current rate of house price growth, as the true impact of Covid-19 on the economy shows through.

He gets paid how much to state this?

[Voice of Doom]

23 minutes ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

I'd be interested to see London vs the rest of the nation...

Me too. I'm looking in London and have only seen one property log change which has gone upwards. Property log yellow pretty much always means a reduction.