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About Switch625

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  1. Snap. That kind of fall would do me nicely. If it's more, then all the better. Roll on Q3, let's see what insanity it brings us.
  2. Agreed. All is just noise until then. Advice to buy NOW! or trying time the nominal bottom of any drop is about as useful as ... I am going to see where we are in September/October and make my mind up then based upon the market trajectory. PS; Much respect for that one liner Timm 😂
  3. I have never bought but have a healthy deposit. The very earliest I could have bought would have been 2007, so avoided that bullet. Arguably should have bought in 2012, but personal circumstances, job etc. not favourable at the time. I had planned to buy later this year as I am fed up of the vested interests in this country constantly adding more fuel to what is completely unsustainable. COVID-19 has put a stop to that and now I am watching with keen interest as this awful melodrama plays out and I continue to build my deposit. Fully intending to buy in 12-18 months depending upon how the market looks at that time. What should happen? Things are so far beyond sensible, due to excessive lending and government props that a 40-60% falls would be entirely reasonable. What will probably happen? Turkey's don't vote for Christmas and you can bet they will throw the kitchen sink at this. What daft scheme they will use I couldn't tell you, but it will be disguised as help, when a closer analogy would be giving a bottle of Scotch to an alcoholic. My best guess is 10-20% falls will result independent of government interference. What will actually happen? Your guess is as good as mine. I didn't expect any great falls until the initial props ran out, furlough etc. so I think things will start in September/October, the early stuff is just background noise so I am rather sanguine about Rishi's latest little wheeze. What actually counts is unemployment. The key is unemployment. If they control unemployment by some means then I expect the lower end of falls to occur. If unemployment rises so will the falls. If they loose control of unemployment then it truly will be full crash ahead independent of the props. As always, 'You pays your money, you take your chance'. Good luck to you
  4. I think you are likely to remain unhappy then. Drops, quite possibly substantial ones look increasingly likely, but I can't see it getting anywhere near 85%. Frankly if it falls 10% I will be better off having chosen to rent rather than to buy.
  5. Channel 4 News; 11,000 more unemployed in the last 48 hours
  6. THIS! The first graph shows UK unemployment rate, Feb to April data from the ONS has that currently standing at 3.9% (https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment) The second is from the front page of the site, the correlation between unemployment and house prices is stark.
  7. Historical data (1971-2020), y-axis is UK unemployment rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rate
  8. Thanks xxxx, I had heard the rumblings that something like that may happen. OUCH!
  9. Whilst I accept your premise that forced sales are important and are currently being prevented by government props, we are seeing falls on a national level with those props in place. In my opinion it's too early to call a crash with absolute certainty at this stage but then you can never be 100% sure until after the event and in excess of 3% falls in 2 months is a very strong indicator. Assuming your statement about Chiswick is correct, within a reasonable timeframe, it will be interesting to see if it still holds true in a few years. I also accept that some areas of the country will buck the national trend and see smaller falls or even potentially no falls at all, equally others will fall further and faster, that's how an average works. The areas that I want to buy in, have seen falls comparable to and in some areas exceeding the national average, so from an entirely selfish personal perspective this is good news for me.
  10. Mortgage holidays and a ban on repossessions will save them for the time being ... https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2020/06/regulator-confirms-homeowners-will-be-able-to-extend-mortgage-ho/
  11. That is substantial and considerably more than I thought would be the case at this stage pre furlough ending. Perhaps the smarter people getting our while the going's still good?
  12. Worry not Andy, for the reasons identified by others, this will take time to feed through the market. Expect the government to weigh in as they have done on multiple occasions in the last two decades to try and keep the plates spinning, in fact I am counting on it, as if they don't it will be full on Armageddon. Even with the inevitable props I expect good sized falls, not the 50% some people are hoping for, but decent enough. If I am wrong and they actually save this ponzi yet again, which I think is highly unlikely, ForGreatLager's right, it's time to emigrate.
  13. This would be one of those companies offering 0% interest credit for 3 years on 'essential items' like a £2K L shaped sofa, that people couldn't live without. Never saw that coming 🙄
  14. I think your figures look about right. I did say 'above average' or actually I probably should have said 'WAY above average' salary in their cases. Will it be sustainable for them? Well they are my friends, so I hope so for their sakes, but I think its going to be a struggle and I don't think they are likely to be the only ones facing this unpleasant new reality.
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