First time on the ladder Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 32 minutes ago, captainb said: In general yes but that poster has a 40% deposit. Im saving my tears. They have had the opportunity to buy but chose not to. Their choice. Surely saving up a 40% deposit is the right way to go. If more people did that and loved within their means, house prices wouldnt be as ridiculous as they currently are. Lending people 95% of their house value is ludicrous. We are just under 30 and have managed to save up 40%, nobody is asking for tears btw, but its still a nightmare trying to buy the right house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, nickb1 said: It would be tedious to mansplain that this is obfuscation. I think it a more appropriate analogy than a man falling from a building. That point he's on his way down, he can see it conning and everyone watching can also agree he ain't superman. No obfuscation intended. Perhaps the broken clock is more suitable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulTW Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, First time on the ladder said: No doubt interest rates will rocket when they do. Not a chance interest rates will rise whilst the housing market is at risk of falls. We've had a decade of low IRs, no reason for them to return to anything >1%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, captainb said: And yet people here didnt buy at - 15% as they were waiting for - 30% etc. Quantum is key, people suggesting that houses must fall by 50,60,70% etc is so divorced from reality they might as well sign up for the next 25 years talking about sodding house prices now Only 70%? Amateurs. I'll raise a small smile when they get to 85% I might even buy then too, with a cheeky 30% below asking offer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 The price jump is inevitable, months of pent up demand + lowest ever rates + excessive liquidity in form of govt. grants and unsecured loans. So prospective buyers who held of their purchases are back. On top of this are new buyers with new found cheap/free capital thanks to Rishi. For most in the these troubling times the default asset purchase is property. October-November is when furloughs and mortgage holidays end. That said property prices do not work on a knee-jerk basis, it will take two quarters at the very least. So if the economic stagflation continues, this time next year is when house prices will truly reflect the post-covid impact. Of course the govt. can still step in and push even more stimulus, or the economy can see miraculous recovery after vaccine dispensations start. There are a lot of plays here. Nonetheless, the current ebbs and flows in property prices are temporary. Will need a year to see the true impact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 55 minutes ago, Si1 said: Nominal or real? Inflation isn't good for real house prices. As far as I know. It isn't good or bad for real prices in of itself but it would lift nominal prices. But inflation is great for reducing the real value of debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, PaulTW said: Not a chance interest rates will rise whilst the housing market is at risk of falls. We've had a decade of low IRs, no reason for them to return to anything >1%. Spoken like a true believer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, First time on the ladder said: Surely saving up a 40% deposit is the right way to go. If more people did that and loved within their means, house prices wouldnt be as ridiculous as they currently are. Lending people 95% of their house value is ludicrous. We are just under 30 and have managed to save up 40%, nobody is asking for tears btw, but its still a nightmare trying to buy the right house. All of which is fine. That was your choice though. Some people purchase on a 90% mortgage, its higher risk for sure, but its not ridiculous and it has worked for millions before and undoubtedly will again. Others save up 25%. Some as you do save even more. There is no right or wrong answer. Going into.. If only mortgages were limited to six quid and a packet of crisps, or 60% or if only interest rates were 12% and BTL was banned...its all very interesting but it isnt real. Basing financial decisions on what you want to happen is human but very illogical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said: I would judge 3 million as mass - but it’s subjective, and open to opinion. Numpties? Idiots taken in and lumping the extra on to a mortgage. The defining is the Stamp Duty holiday - not negative equity - but I think you probably knew that. Fair enough. I think most prone moving due to the sdlt are already 'On the ladder' since ftb are exempt anyway. Not really sure what point you're making though tbh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, adarmo said: but it would lift nominal prices. Really? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, Huggy said: Only 70%? Amateurs. I'll raise a small smile when they get to 85% I might even buy then too, with a cheeky 30% below asking offer. 😂😂😂😂😂😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Just now, Si1 said: Really? All things being equal, yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, adarmo said: All things being equal, yes. But all things aren't equal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Si1 said: But all things aren't equal. This is pointless lol. The point is inflation erodes debt and increases the prices of everything. All things being equal is used to split out individual influences on valuables. Inflation targets are actively being raised openly by central banks. Why do you think that is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, adarmo said: This is pointless lol. The point is inflation erodes debt and increases the prices of everything. All things being equal is used to split out individual influences on valuables. Inflation targets are actively being raised openly by central banks. Why do you think that is? Valuables should read variables Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, adarmo said: This is pointless lol. Whatever. Yes it's so to protect house prices. Edited September 2, 2020 by Si1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Si1 said: Whatever. Excellent contribution to the debate. Well done 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, adarmo said: Not really sure what point you're making though tbh. That in the last 15 years it might have been said, but the current economics point towards a large sh1t storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 (edited) Wow house prices rising and the 3 million Hong Kongers are on their way. So much for us all been told so. And so much for the conspiracy theorist nutjobs tell us all the Covid is a fake cover by the NWO for a great reset. And so much for voting for Brexshit to get on the ladder. Edited September 2, 2020 by MonsieurCopperCrutch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, adarmo said: This is pointless lol. 6 minutes ago, adarmo said: Excellent contribution to the debate. Well done 😂 Err Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said: That in the last 15 years it might have been said, but the current economics point towards a large sh1t storm. My concern is the tautology between inflation and real incomes. Income rises for both people and businesses, I believe, tend to lag outgoings in an inflationary environment. So income is less certain and it's a drag on the general economy, which is bad for general house prices. That's partially why we've seen high house prices in low inflation times, and the tautology is supported by having seen real terms lower prices during higher inflationary periods. 'all things being equal' doesn't really work with multiple feedbacks.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiley George Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 3 hours ago, Pop321 said: What is interesting is I know 2 other estates who feel the same way. One just described it as weird and really inconsistent, the other is expecting to come in one day and be told it’s all over. The other snippet of conversation from him was regarding a backlog of probates all going back to January, he had at least 5 waiting to come on, but solicitors simply aren’t processing them quickly enough - and this is pre-pandemic stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 2 hours ago, moonriver said: Thanks, should be interesting. I enjoy the "Property Liion reduced" tweets. There certainly seems to be plenty of them recently. I got that impression also, esp London Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 2 hours ago, captainb said: And yet people here didnt buy at - 15% as they were waiting for - 30% etc. Quantum is key, people suggesting that houses must fall by 50,60,70% etc is so divorced from reality they might as well sign up for the next 25 years talking about sodding house prices now -50% nominally in NI. 50% falls in real terms in much of England post 2007. Buying in the SE right now and you could be looking at those falls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young Turk Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, adarmo said: Or you walk past the man with the sandwich board claiming the 'end is nigh'. But with each passing day you grow in confidence the wield won't end. Falling from a building is terminal, but a property price fall is not. But there have been property bubbles and crashes in the past. Economists think they have some idea why there were bubbles and crashes. They think some of the factors which caused them in the past are present today*. They are not good at predicting when these things will happen (the joke is that economists have predicted nine of the last five crashes!) but they are good at explaining causal relationships. * Even if they didn't think the conditions were present for a crash, we should assume that there could be a crash at some point, simply because we haven't had a crash for a while and we don't tend to have many multi-decade booms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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