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House Price Indices Wed Sep 2nd


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HOLA441
32 minutes ago, captainb said:

In general yes but that poster has a 40% deposit. Im saving my tears. 

They have had the opportunity to buy but chose not to. Their choice. 

Surely saving up a 40% deposit is the right way to go. If more people did that and loved within their means, house prices wouldnt be as ridiculous as they currently are. Lending people 95% of their house value is ludicrous.

We are just under 30 and have managed to save up 40%, nobody is asking for tears btw, but its still a nightmare trying to buy the right house.

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HOLA442
1 hour ago, nickb1 said:

It would be tedious to mansplain that this is obfuscation. 

I think it a more appropriate analogy than a man falling from a building. That point he's on his way down, he can see it conning and everyone watching can also agree he ain't superman.

No obfuscation intended. Perhaps the broken clock is more suitable?

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HOLA443
1 hour ago, First time on the ladder said:

No doubt interest rates will rocket when they do.

Not a chance interest rates will rise whilst the housing market is at risk of falls. We've had a decade of low IRs, no reason for them to return to anything >1%.

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HOLA444
1 hour ago, captainb said:

And yet people here didnt buy at - 15% as they were waiting for - 30% etc. 

Quantum is key, people suggesting that houses must fall by 50,60,70% etc is so divorced from reality they might as well sign up for the next 25 years talking about sodding house prices now

Only 70%? Amateurs. I'll raise a small smile when they get to 85% I might even buy then too, with a cheeky 30% below asking offer.

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HOLA445

The price jump is inevitable, months of pent up demand + lowest ever rates + excessive liquidity in form of govt. grants and unsecured loans. So prospective buyers who held of their purchases are back. On top of this are new buyers with new found cheap/free capital thanks to Rishi. For most in the these troubling times the default asset purchase is property. 

October-November is when furloughs and mortgage holidays end. That said property prices do not work on a knee-jerk basis, it will take two quarters at the very least. So if the economic stagflation continues, this time next year is when house prices will truly reflect the post-covid impact.

Of course the govt. can still step in and push even more stimulus, or the economy can see miraculous recovery after vaccine dispensations start. There are a lot of plays here.

Nonetheless, the current ebbs and flows in property prices are temporary. Will need a year to see the true impact.

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HOLA447
1 minute ago, PaulTW said:

Not a chance interest rates will rise whilst the housing market is at risk of falls. We've had a decade of low IRs, no reason for them to return to anything >1%.

Spoken like a true believer!

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HOLA448
7 minutes ago, First time on the ladder said:

Surely saving up a 40% deposit is the right way to go. If more people did that and loved within their means, house prices wouldnt be as ridiculous as they currently are. Lending people 95% of their house value is ludicrous.

We are just under 30 and have managed to save up 40%, nobody is asking for tears btw, but its still a nightmare trying to buy the right house.

All of which is fine. 

That was your choice though. 

Some people purchase on a 90% mortgage, its higher risk for sure, but its not ridiculous and it has worked for millions before and undoubtedly will again. 

Others save up 25%. Some as you do save even more. 

There is no right or wrong answer. 

Going into.. If only mortgages were limited to six quid and a packet of crisps, or 60% or if only interest rates were 12% and BTL was banned...its all very interesting but it isnt real. Basing financial decisions on what you want to happen is human but very illogical 

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HOLA449
1 hour ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

I would judge 3 million as mass - but it’s subjective, and open to opinion.  Numpties?   Idiots taken in and lumping the extra on to a mortgage. The defining is the Stamp Duty holiday - not negative equity - but I think you probably knew that.

Fair enough. I think most prone moving due to the sdlt are already 'On the ladder' since ftb are exempt anyway. Not really sure what point you're making though tbh.

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HOLA4414
1 minute ago, Si1 said:

But all things aren't equal.

 This is pointless lol. The point is inflation erodes debt and increases the prices of everything. 

All things being equal is used to split out individual influences on valuables. Inflation targets are actively being raised openly by central banks. Why do you think that is?

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HOLA4415
1 minute ago, adarmo said:

 This is pointless lol. The point is inflation erodes debt and increases the prices of everything. 

All things being equal is used to split out individual influences on valuables. Inflation targets are actively being raised openly by central banks. Why do you think that is?

 Valuables should read variables

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HOLA4419

Wow house prices rising and the 3 million Hong Kongers are on their way. 

 

So much for us all been told so. And so much for the conspiracy theorist nutjobs tell us all the Covid is a fake cover by the NWO for a great reset. And so much for voting for Brexshit to get on the ladder. 

Edited by MonsieurCopperCrutch
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HOLA4421
7 minutes ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

That in the last 15 years it might have been said, but the current economics point towards a large sh1t storm. 

My concern is the tautology between inflation and real incomes. Income rises for both people and businesses, I believe, tend to lag outgoings in an inflationary environment. So income is less certain and it's a drag on the general economy, which is bad for general house prices. That's partially why we've seen high house prices in low inflation times, and the tautology is supported by having seen real terms lower prices during higher inflationary periods.

'all things being equal' doesn't really work with multiple feedbacks....

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HOLA4422
3 hours ago, Pop321 said:

What is interesting is I know 2 other estates who feel the same way. One just described it as weird and really inconsistent, the other is expecting to come in one day and be told it’s all over. 

The other snippet of conversation from him was regarding a backlog of probates all going back to January, he had at least 5 waiting to come on, but solicitors simply aren’t processing them quickly enough - and this is pre-pandemic stuff.

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HOLA4424
2 hours ago, captainb said:

And yet people here didnt buy at - 15% as they were waiting for - 30% etc. 

Quantum is key, people suggesting that houses must fall by 50,60,70% etc is so divorced from reality they might as well sign up for the next 25 years talking about sodding house prices now

-50% nominally in NI. 50% falls in real terms in much of England post 2007. Buying in the SE right now and you could be looking at those falls. 

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HOLA4425
1 hour ago, adarmo said:

Or you walk past the man with the sandwich board claiming the 'end is nigh'. But with each passing day you grow in confidence the wield won't end. 

Falling from a building is terminal, but a property price fall is not.

But there have been property bubbles and crashes in the past. Economists think they have some idea why there were bubbles and crashes. They think some of the factors which caused them in the past are present today*. They are not good at predicting when these things will happen (the joke is that economists have predicted nine of the last five crashes!) but they are good at explaining causal relationships.

* Even if they didn't think the conditions were present for a crash, we should assume that there could be a crash at some point, simply because we haven't had a crash for a while and we don't tend to have many multi-decade booms. 

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