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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
1 minute ago, pig said:

The problem is the Alice in Wonderland way the perception of virus and vaccine has been set up: ie the Covid is mostly harmless whereas the vaccine is an untested experimental drug so why take it....whereas risk wise its almost the complete reverse, the Covid drugs are some of the most researched in history and are in principle harmless vs a novel disease that is in principle harmful.

In my age group it is pretty definite that the risk posed by Covid is greater than the risk posed by vaccination. However, up until very recently it had been the opposite for children. Have they changed their tune because they're running out of places to stick their needles before their stock vaccine time expires?

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HOLA442
23 minutes ago, anonguest said:

I wasn't disputing that fact.

I was questioning the validity of the claim that it will happen within 8 years - otherwise the world as we know it will end.  Claiming something will happen when it has negligible chance of happening, within the time claimed, is therefore being alarmist.

A doctor claiming that legions of young will end up in wheelchairs because of Covid, without supporting evidence, is similarly alarmist.

Maybe that professor knows rather more than you.

A week or so ago, I posted an internal (but declassified) NHS paper my wife was using for planning future resourcing on Covid.  Long Covid in children is seen as a major issue and the current proposal is to set up 15 specialist paediatric centres to deal with cases that cannot be handled by GPs or local hospitals.

That an awful lot of extra resourcing for something that some people would have you believe is not a significant problem.  

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HOLA443
1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Maybe that professor knows rather more than you.

A week or so ago, I posted an internal (but declassified) NHS paper my wife was using for planning future resourcing on Covid.  Long Covid in children is seen as a major issue and the current proposal is to set up 15 specialist paediatric centres to deal with cases that cannot be handled by GPs or local hospitals.

That an awful lot of extra resourcing for something that some people would have you believe is not a significant problem.  

Unless it's a political decision.

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HOLA444
4 hours ago, anonguest said:

What did I write that constitutes an 'attack'?

I merely wrote what my feelings were.  I even added a 'ROFL' to emphasise it was humour/'rib digging'.

 

You retrospectively edited your post to include ROFL after I called you out. 

Why do you need to voice feelings on posters when it is the argument that you should be debating not other people’s abilities? 

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HOLA449
3 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

In my age group it is pretty definite that the risk posed by Covid is greater than the risk posed by vaccination. However, up until very recently it had been the opposite for children. Have they changed their tune because they're running out of places to stick their needles before their stock vaccine time expires?

With my TFH on all I can think of to explain the jitteryness coming out of Downing St is a combination of being stung by Cummings and that BJ has been given a ‘budget’ to keep the country open (+ fiddle with the ‘pingdemic’) and that budget includes xyz getting vaccinated, Covid passports, travel traffic light contortions and so on. 

 

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HOLA4410
13 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

You retrospectively edited your post to include ROFL after I called you out. 

Why do you need to voice feelings on posters when it is the argument that you should be debating not other people’s abilities? 

I added the ROFL within seconds of the main sentence. IF you were THAT fast in responding to/jumping on my reply then WOW!  Frankly, even without the ROFL it should have been evident to most it was cheeky humour.

So......your 'feelings' assessing others, elsewhere, and deciding they are anti-science, etc are permitted? But my 'feelings' asessing your sense of humour (or lack of) are not permitted?

Edited by anonguest
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HOLA4411
2 minutes ago, pig said:

With my TFH on all I can think of to explain the jitteryness coming out of Downing St is a combination of being stung by Cummings and that BJ has been given a ‘budget’ to keep the country open (+ fiddle with the ‘pingdemic’) and that budget includes xyz getting vaccinated, Covid passports, travel traffic light contortions and so on. 

 

So as dodgy as a nine bob note.

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HOLA4412
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HOLA4413
6 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

So as dodgy as a nine bob note.

Lol

Actually perhaps I’m not being very TFH - but it’s odd we’ve switched from a kind of cavalier incompetence to jittery micromanagement.  Maybe also feedback from the polls/opinion groups isn’t looking very healthy.

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HOLA4414
1 hour ago, anonguest said:

It's irrelevant who she's quoting/stating.  SHE is doing the stating and is therefore, by definition ALSO an alarmist.

The fact that the 195 govt signatories to the 48th IPCC Session in Korea were the originators of the claim of the need to do XYZ also makes them alarmist.

Stop being stupid.

The science of AGW is incontrovertible. The threat that global warming poses to humanity has been formally recognised by pretty much every govt, supranational organisation, and scientific institution in the world. i.e. by just about everyone qualified to express an opinion.

The principal obstacle to the 1.5C limit was this malignant narcissist and his Big Oil sponsors. Now, thankfully departed.

donald-trump-has-surged-to-the-top-of-2-

Joe Biden's commitment to environmental justice and to slashing US greenhouse emissions has put that goal back within reach.

 

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HOLA4415
12 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Stop being stupid.

I'm not. You are - by not addressing the (very simple) point I was discussing.  The climate change stuff is irrelevant.

12 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The science of AGW is incontrovertible.

I never questioned that or insinuated it. How (or even why!) you read that from my words is beyond me.

I addressed the issue of TIMING. 

IF someone says to you that you are going to die tomorrow, then that is cause for alarm. IF someone says it will happen in 40 years then hardly cause for alarm, since that is more expected.

Calling out Thunberg, and similar, as 'alarmist' DOES NOT EQUAL denial of the science. 

Similarly, calling out a scaremongering doctor DOES NOT EQUAL denial of Covid

 

12 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The threat that global warming poses to humanity has been formally recognised by pretty much every govt, supranational organisation, and scientific institution in the world. i.e. by just about everyone qualified to express an opinion.

The principal obstacle to the 1.5C limit was this malignant narcissist and his Big Oil sponsors. Now, thankfully departed.

donald-trump-has-surged-to-the-top-of-2-

Joe Biden's commitment to environmental justice and to slashing US greenhouse emissions has put that goal back within reach.

 

 

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HOLA4416
2 hours ago, anonguest said:

I never said or insinuated that fear of long covid should factor into individuals decisions re: vaccination

It is relevant as the point I was making was that much (all?) of the reporting re: long covid presents a ridiculously doom and gloom picture with regards the threat it supposedly is.  Many articles are presented in such way as to paint a picture to many that it is permanent and/or life changing.

I know you didn't, sorry what I'm saying is that it seems you DON'T think it should, and I think that it SHOULD.

I don't see a "ridiculously doom and gloom picture", I just see it being reported in that way...people can act on the information or not.  The idea that young people are hanging on mainstream media's every word seems unlikely.  The young people I see are going out, catching COVID, not being ill with, and carrying on with life...

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HOLA4418
1 hour ago, pig said:

Lol

Actually perhaps I’m not being very TFH - but it’s odd we’ve switched from a kind of cavalier incompetence to jittery micromanagement.  Maybe also feedback from the polls/opinion groups isn’t looking very healthy.

Whilst the journos at the JVT briefing asked some mildly searching questions, the TV News anchors are...... "Yay, 16 and 17 year olds will be able to get their vaccines at the end of the month".

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HOLA4419
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HOLA4420
51 minutes ago, anonguest said:

I'm not. You are - by not addressing the (very simple) point I was discussing.  The climate change stuff is irrelevant.

I never questioned that or insinuated it. How (or even why!) you read that from my words is beyond me.

I addressed the issue of TIMING. 

IF someone says to you that you are going to die tomorrow, then that is cause for alarm. IF someone says it will happen in 40 years then hardly cause for alarm, since that is more expected.

Calling out Thunberg, and similar, as 'alarmist' DOES NOT EQUAL denial of the science. 

Similarly, calling out a scaremongering doctor DOES NOT EQUAL denial of Covid

 

 

Yeah, except the timescale for damage from climate change has always been effects over ~100 years. The 10 years is how long we have to make changes to stop it happening. The science is alarming...

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HOLA4422

Was just reading this article about why you should get vaccinated, because some youngish healthy person died of Covid:

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15776818/dad-rejected-covid-jab-dies-hospital/

 

One problem, I have read the article several times, and if you read it very carefully, it doesn't actually say he died of Covid. (Also read other articles, which again use careful language to tip toe around what he died of)

Edited by reddog
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HOLA4424
8 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

But if they have all tested negative for Covid before boarding the plane what difference would it make?

Lateral flow tests, 50% false negative rate.

Easier to just get the jab and not have to put a swab down the back of your throat and up your nose every time you want to do something IMO

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