Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Ah-so]

2 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Actually I'm not! You need to stop listening to Ah-so's persistent personal slurs.

I apologise - I misunderstood - and so, apparently do others. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

2 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Actually I'm not! You need to stop listening to Ah-so's persistent personal slurs.

In that case apologies!!!

[Bruce Banner]

2 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

I apologise - I misunderstood - and so, apparently do others. 

An apology followed by innuendo .

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

26 minutes ago, Huggy said:

There are risks to all aspects of life, careful you don't get too cocky. Even in simple things like shaving your legs.

I've always been a bit reckless in that regard.

When I first learnt to drive with my friends, we'd take turns bonnet surfing. I've also done pull ups off the side rails of a cross channel ferry. To be fair, when I did that, I could actually pull my entire body weight up on one arm.

[Ah-so]

Just now, Bruce Banner said:

An apology followed by innuendo .

As above - with Mikhail. Anyway, noted that you aren't anti-vaxx. 

Everyone on each side has a slightly different perspective, which is what makes it entertaining. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 minute ago, Ah-so said:

As above - with Mikhail. Anyway, noted that you aren't anti-vaxx. 

Everyone on each side has a slightly different perspective, which is what makes it entertaining. 

I'm not anti-vaxx (it now seems double xx is in vogue) as I understand probability and have a high (calculative based) risk tolerance.

[The Moderators]

1 minute ago, Ah-so said:

Everyone on each side has a slightly different perspective, which is what makes it entertaining. 

But the personal attacks have to stop - Guidelines - House Price Crash Forum

[Chunketh]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

They have taken onboard all the B.S from SKY "news" etc. about how effective the vaccines are and are taking more risks than the people who understand why the lockdown approach works.

No, there are just far more vaccinated people than refuseniks. This was predicted months ago.

[Ah-so]

6 minutes ago, The Moderators said:

But the personal attacks have to stop - Guidelines - House Price Crash Forum

Yes, noted. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

2 hours ago, Ah-so said:

Yeah, I've been paid by Mossad since 2005 to post anti-house price inflation information. 

And who's paying you, new joiner with no apparent interest in house prices, using a disposable email address?

Well I don't blame you. 

Just search "pretty girls in the IDF" and you'll get a view of the sort of loveliness you might find in Mossad.  I spent some time with the UK military (reserve and supplier) and there was little to compare, most looked like Cressida Dick.

 

Infact there is even a 500 photo PInterest page: https://www.pinterest.co.uk/amp/shamus8247/beautiful-women-of-the-idf/

Edited August 3, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Bruce Banner]

Former Israeli army weapons instructor...

[Confusion of VIs]

38 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

An apology followed by innuendo .

No an accurate comment, I certainly thought you were or at least had become antivax.

A little while ago you were worrying about the vaccine causing an ELE for the human race. Only a few days ago you were promoting a concocted DM clickbait story. 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I don't give a stuff about COVID as I am fitter than most 25 year olds. 

I doubt you are anywhere near as fit Lewis Hamilton and he looked in a pretty bad way after Sunday's race. 

My sister is a fitness fanatic and while she got over the fairly unpleasant short term effects in a week, 3 months later she still has very little sense of smell/taste.  It's coming back very slowly but currently is only at the level where she can smell neat Dettol, food still tastes of nothing.    

[Bruce Banner]

4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

No an accurate comment, I certainly thought you were or at least had become antivax.

A little while ago you were worrying about the vaccine causing an ELE for the human race. Only a few days ago you were promoting a concocted DM clickbait story. 

Nonsense!

Of course I'm concerned about the long term effect if 100% of the human race is vaccinated as suggested by BJ, who wouldn't be!

Since when has quoting an article from the UK mainstream media made one an anti vaxer?

Can we not discuss this subject without resorting to personal retorts?

[scottbeard]

11 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

No an accurate comment, I certainly thought you were or at least had become antivax.

A little while ago you were worrying about the vaccine causing an ELE for the human race. Only a few days ago you were promoting a concocted DM clickbait story. 

Can't believe I'm stepping in to defend @Bruce Banner here, but once again - channelling my inner @Riedquat - there aren't two positions (1) you must believe that 100% of the world population should be given a COVID vaccine ASAP, or (2) you are an anti-vaxxer.

It's perfectly logical to believe things like:

"Vaccines are very important for those at high risk, but not that important for a low risk person like me"

"The COVID vaccines are a fantastic bit of science that almost certainly are very safe...but just in case there's something  catastrophic we've overlooked why not give them to 95% of the world population instead of 100%, then there is no danger of an ELE"

I had my both my COVID jabs on literally the very first day they were offered to me.  I don't have any concerns about the vaccines.  However, I also know that (perish the thought) I can be wrong about stuff, so there is part of me that is a little bit relieved that (1) there are some people out there refusing it and (2) I don't need to give it to my baby son because - well you know, just in case...

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

24 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I doubt you are anywhere near as fit Lewis Hamilton and he looked in a pretty bad way after Sunday's race. 

My sister is a fitness fanatic and while she got over the fairly unpleasant short term effects in a week, 3 months later she still has very little sense of smell/taste.  It's coming back very slowly but currently is only at the level where she can smell neat Dettol, food still tastes of nothing.    

Well ask them if they can sub 7 minutes 12 for 2K on a concept 2 ergo.

BTW, I've not had a day off sick for 25 years.

Probably bring unfair on Lewis, he's a good 14cm shorter than me and 18Kg lighter. Growing uo in the 1980s the strength, big muscles and power thing was big. I always liked Dolph Lundgren, the thinking mans muscle.

Edited August 3, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Confusion of VIs]

6 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Nonsense!

Of course I'm concerned about the long term effect if 100% of the human race is vaccinated as suggested by BJ, who wouldn't be!

Since when has quoting an article from the UK mainstream media made one an anti vaxer?

Can we not discuss this subject without resorting to personal retorts?

I haven't made any personal retorts. 

An ELE is a barely credible outcome, if it is a concern logically you should be far more concerned about it arising from a new and mutating virus than a vaccine.

The article was confected nonsense. Whether taking such nonsense seriously makes you an antivaxxer is debatable as we don't actually have a agreed definition to assess it against. 

Some would define antivaxxer as including those who seemingly irrationally decide not to take it, others would restrict it to those creating or circulating deliberate misinformation in an attempt to influence others.       

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

The personal attacks are getting too much. Time to lock the thread for a couple of day while everyone cools down?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

12 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

The personal attacks are getting too much. Time to lock the thread for a couple of day while everyone cools down?

I've hardly noticed. But then I have thick skin, having done both extreme physical training in the past (involved being bawled out by a coach/NCO) and extreme mental training at school/university and in a top 5 consultancy.

May be we need an HPC be kind to snowflakes club? You can of course self identify.

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[captainb]

2 hours ago, Huggy said:

There are risks to all aspects of life, careful you don't get too cocky. Even in simple things like shaving your legs.

Shaving other areas can be more scary

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

4 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Crutch wants us in bondage in face masks, but we are one on Brexit along with Bruce.

Not true. For me masks are a temporary measure to help suppress the spread until everyone who wants it is vaccinated. The sweetspot are vaccines, testing, and passports.

[pig]

4 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Can't believe I'm stepping in to defend @Bruce Banner here, but once again - channelling my inner @Riedquat - there aren't two positions (1) you must believe that 100% of the world population should be given a COVID vaccine ASAP, or (2) you are an anti-vaxxer.

It's perfectly logical to believe things like:

"Vaccines are very important for those at high risk, but not that important for a low risk person like me"

"The COVID vaccines are a fantastic bit of science that almost certainly are very safe...but just in case there's something  catastrophic we've overlooked why not give them to 95% of the world population instead of 100%, then there is no danger of an ELE"

I had my both my COVID jabs on literally the very first day they were offered to me.  I don't have any concerns about the vaccines.  However, I also know that (perish the thought) I can be wrong about stuff, so there is part of me that is a little bit relieved that (1) there are some people out there refusing it and (2) I don't need to give it to my baby son because - well you know, just in case...

I guess if you haven’t taken the vaccine there is no need to expect the standard of living of those who have ? I certainly wouldn’t.

[anonguest]

15 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Well you sense incorrectly then. This is about life and death, not some stupid game.

 

The people who contract long-covid and their familes care about 'cases.' Which once again it has to be pointed out to you that it is not just the death statistics that matter.

🙄

 

I'm getting sick to death of hearing about long Covid - especially in the absence of hard statistics and facts.  In fact, and until we get shown hard stats on it, I consider people's reaction to long Covid to be as or even more overblown than the irrational hysteria too many people still exhibit regarding Covid's perceived (vs actual) mortality risk.  Just like the 'scare stories' that the media continue trot out with regularity of the proverbial 19 year old perfect health victim of Covid - statistical outliers presented as so as to give impression of being normality - so too they push this whole long Covid 'scare' BUT with even less supporting stats and figures than they do for Covid mortality itself.

It should hardly be surprising to anyone that, like flu, there will be those unlucky ones who suffer some sort of post-viral syndrome. Heck. It's hard to think of ANY disease that doesn't have some statistical incidence of post-infection after effects of some form or another. 

Given that this disease is, for the minority of those who actually develop meaningful symptoms of illness, nastier than ordinary flu it should therefore hardly not be surprising that any such post-viral syndrome will be worse and longer.

BUT, just like flu, I would also expect (and have seen no reports/evidence claiming the contrary) for the vast majority it will not be permanent.  And that is key to whether or not Covid represents a bona fide issue to society or not.  I've had flu in varying forms of severity several times in my life so far - and in some of those cases I distinctly recall having a few weeks after where I was noticeably 'run down'. BUT it passed. End of!

We have known for a long time that there are, every year, a very small number of people who will sadly end up suffering from lifelong complications from viral infections (chronic fatigue sydrome, etc) and never be their previous self again. And the reason we don't turn our society upside down or go nuts over it is because the numbers are so small.  Unless I see research/stats that indicate that Covid will result in a meaningfully higher percentage of sufferers ending up in such situations then any panic over long Covid is needless panic.

In fact, so I have observed, invoking 'long Covid' almost always seems to be the default fallback argument that hysterical Covidians resort to when their various irrational debating points (e.g. lockdowns must continue, forced vaccination, etc blah blah blah) get demolished by hard facts and shown to be unrealistic/disproportionate to the reality that Covid is not an existential threat.

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by anonguest

[anonguest]

6 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I've hardly noticed. But then I have thick skin, having done both extreme physical training in the past (involved being bawled out by a coach/NCO) and extreme mental training at school/university and in a top 5 consultancy.

May be we need an HPC be kind to snowflakes club? You can of course self identify.

 

I'm clearly not as 'tough' as you - but still pretty thick skinned.  I can take bad language and personal insults in my stride without needing counselling or looking to see if the offender can be prosecuted, etc.  I grew up in an era where many age old adages were still in common parlance, such as "sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt".  So politclaly incorrect now of course.  I wouldn't be surprised if any schoolteacher attempting to placate a weepy hurt feelings kid today would likely be disciplined or sacked.

As for insults one of my best schoolteachers was highly skilled practioner in the 'art of riposte' and made a point to pass on that skill to his students as a highly useful life skill.

Edited August 4, 2021 by anonguest

[captainb]

2 hours ago, anonguest said:

I'm getting sick to death of hearing about long Covid - especially in the absence of hard statistics and facts.  In fact, and until we get shown hard stats on it, I consider people's reaction to long Covid to be as or even more overblown than the irrational hysteria too many people still exhibit regarding Covid's perceived (vs actual) mortality risk.  Just like the 'scare stories' that the media continue trot out with regularity of the proverbial 19 year old perfect health victim of Covid - statistical outliers presented as so as to give impression of being normality - so too they push this whole long Covid 'scare' BUT with even less supporting stats and figures than they do for Covid mortality itself.

It should hardly be surprising to anyone that, like flu, there will be those unlucky ones who suffer some sort of post-viral syndrome. Heck. It's hard to think of ANY disease that doesn't have some statistical incidence of post-infection after effects of some form or another. 

Given that this disease is, for the minority of those who actually develop meaningful symptoms of illness, nastier than ordinary flu it should therefore hardly not be surprising that any such post-viral syndrome will be worse and longer.

BUT, just like flu, I would also expect (and have seen no reports/evidence claiming the contrary) for the vast majority it will not be permanent.  And that is key to whether or not Covid represents a bona fide issue to society or not.  I've had flu in varying forms of severity several times in my life so far - and in some of those cases I distinctly recall having a few weeks after where I was noticeably 'run down'. BUT it passed. End of!

We have known for a long time that there are, every year, a very small number of people who will sadly end up suffering from lifelong complications from viral infections (chronic fatigue sydrome, etc) and never be their previous self again. And the reason we don't turn our society upside down or go nuts over it is because the numbers are so small.  Unless I see research/stats that indicate that Covid will result in a meaningfully higher percentage of sufferers ending up in such situations then any panic over long Covid is needless panic.

In fact, so I have observed, invoking 'long Covid' almost always seems to be the default fallback argument that hysterical Covidians always resort to when having their various irrational debating points (e.g. lockdowns must continue, forced vaccination, etc blah blah blah) demolished by hard facts and shown to be unrealistic/disproportionate to the reality that Covid is not an existential threat.

 

Well done. You've worked it out.

Its been government policy since the start to make this disease scary\relevant for the under 40s as the risk is they wouldnt comply.

Completely coincidentally, we have 10% of cases cause "long covid" backed up by some total BS statistics that would never see the light of day for anything else...

Oh what is it? Anything you want it to be... How long does it last? Well any length of time actually ... How do we test for it? Oh we don't, we just ask people who may or may not have had covid if they have any symptoms they want and then add them to the pile.

 

None of this means some people don't have long term complications, similar to other respiratory viral infections but what's been released on quantum etc has been ridiculous unless it's there to serve another purpose.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by captainb