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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
 

Yup, sums up how I feel. I was going to have a coffee today but when confronted with the queue and all the new procedures I just said "forget it". Saved myself a couple of quid and sat on a park bench with the dog at my feet instead.

I have not been in a coffee shop since March, would have been in at least twice a week to do emails and chill, usually would have had a bit of food too.  Anything I need the wife gets in Tesco once a week.  Its bound to have a knock on.  

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1
HOLA442
 

I have not been in a coffee shop since March, would have been in at least twice a week to do emails and chill, usually would have had a bit of food too.  Anything I need the wife gets in Tesco once a week.  Its bound to have a knock on.  

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/03/costa-coffee-to-cut-1600-jobs-as-covid-19-takes-toll-on-cafes

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HOLA443
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HOLA444
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HOLA445
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HOLA446
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HOLA447
 

In the interim houses still selling like mad, go figure 

Since people will be having to stay at home for longer and some will be working from home, being close to work or the bus or train stop or shops not so important..... priorities have changed......what is important in life has changed?.......so not that surprised.;)

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HOLA448
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HOLA449
 

In the interim houses still selling like mad, go figure 

 

Poor numerical literacy linked to greater susceptibility to Covid-19 fake news

“My take is that both are relevant. And I was surprised to see numeracy playing such a strong role here … it was one of the single most important predictors,” he said. “I like that finding in a sense because it gives me hope that there’s a solution out there.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/poor-numerical-literacy-linked-to-greater-susceptibility-to-covid-19-fake-news

 

Some fuking stupid people about.

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HOLA4410
 

Has it been considered that a large section of society will now avoid going out, shopping, eating in restaurants etc, the main reason is because they no longer enjoy the experience, but also do not want to be monitored, asked for personal info,tracked and traced where they go....that is before all the signage, instructions on where to walk and what door to use,sanitizer, yellow markings etc....;)

Very good point (because I agree with you 😉). The eat out/drink out experience is as good as dead in my opinion. That is, until things get back to (proper) normal. When that’ll be; your guess is as good as mine. 

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HOLA4411
 

Yeah I'm actually going this route myself.  Apart from going to the supermarket once a week, I'm not prepared to put up with things as they currently are.  I'll just stockpile money instead, as should everyone else.

I've been going to my local pub often enough, albeit usually during the afternoon lull, but pretty much this for anywhere else.

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HOLA4412
 

 

Poor numerical literacy linked to greater susceptibility to Covid-19 fake news

“My take is that both are relevant. And I was surprised to see numeracy playing such a strong role here … it was one of the single most important predictors,” he said. “I like that finding in a sense because it gives me hope that there’s a solution out there.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/poor-numerical-literacy-linked-to-greater-susceptibility-to-covid-19-fake-news

 

Some fuking stupid people about.

For a start it's call numeracy :D 

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HOLA4413
 

Poor numerical literacy linked to greater susceptibility to Covid-19 fake news

“My take is that both are relevant. And I was surprised to see numeracy playing such a strong role here … it was one of the single most important predictors,” he said. “I like that finding in a sense because it gives me hope that there’s a solution out there.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/poor-numerical-literacy-linked-to-greater-susceptibility-to-covid-19-fake-news

Gammons more susceptible too, apparently. Probably a big overlap, hence why it's difficult to prove which is the predictor.

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HOLA4414
 

How could anyone of done worse?

Threw money at the wrong people to get things done......a app and testing t&t not working as it should or world beating.

Did not take it seriously enough earlier in the year, football matches, horse races and face masks told that do not protect....too little too late.

No effective pandemic planning......drastic shortage of safe PPE in the early days that mattered.

Care homes.... deaths and lack of protection.

No monitoring of the ports during March......people entering country from places like Ski resorts and other places of high infection at the time, bringing the virus with them without knowing.

 Scale down of the NHS slowly over last ten years, when need increasing.

Not enough investment/ training of doctors and nurses over years.

Lots of mixed messages and confusion.

Not everything they did was wrong, CoVid was never going to be easy.......never get a second chance to make a good first impression.;)

 

 

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HOLA4415
 

Gammons more susceptible too, apparently. Probably a big overlap, hence why it's difficult to prove which is the predictor.

Why bring politics and predudice into this. I now understand that you don't look at this situation with a neutral view but through the lens of your political views.

Silly.

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HOLA4416
 

 

Poor numerical literacy linked to greater susceptibility to Covid-19 fake news

“My take is that both are relevant. And I was surprised to see numeracy playing such a strong role here … it was one of the single most important predictors,” he said. “I like that finding in a sense because it gives me hope that there’s a solution out there.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/poor-numerical-literacy-linked-to-greater-susceptibility-to-covid-19-fake-news

 

Some fuking stupid people about.

Yep, back to insulting people who don't agree with you.

Silly silly 😆

Edited by swankyman
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HOLA4417
 

Threw money at the wrong people to get things done......a app and testing t&t not working as it should or world beating.

Did not take it seriously enough earlier in the year, football matches, horse races and face masks told that do not protect....too little too late.

No effective pandemic planning......drastic shortage of safe PPE in the early days that mattered.

Care homes.... deaths and lack of protection.

No monitoring of the ports during March......people entering country from places like Ski resorts and other places of high infection at the time, bringing the virus with them without knowing.

 Scale down of the NHS slowly over last ten years, when need increasing.

Not enough investment/ training of doctors and nurses over years.

Lots of mixed messages and confusion.

Not everything they did was wrong, CoVid was never going to be easy.......never get a second chance to make a good first impression.;)

 

 

Chucking 25,000 old people out of hospital into care homes without testing them to free up hospital beds...

Now that has to be peak insanity. That was done.

TBH its not just the politicians who should be strung up for that one, the medical community must have known that was a bad idea.

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HOLA4418
 

 

Poor numerical literacy linked to greater susceptibility to Covid-19 fake news

“My take is that both are relevant. And I was surprised to see numeracy playing such a strong role here … it was one of the single most important predictors,” he said. “I like that finding in a sense because it gives me hope that there’s a solution out there.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/poor-numerical-literacy-linked-to-greater-susceptibility-to-covid-19-fake-news

 

Some fuking stupid people about.

Couldn't say but it certainly seems to be prevalent in people who support more and more lockdowns!

Not being able to cope with percentages seems to be correlated too - or not focusing on actual numbers that drives them does anyway.  Both a change from 2 to 4 and 1 million to 2 million means a doubling but probably the latter number is more material?

And no one in the media or Westminster seems to give a t*ss about the 1500 people a day not dying from COVID.

Edited by MARTINX9
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HOLA4419
 

Couldn't say but it certainly seems to be prevalent in people who support more and more lockdowns!

Not being able to cope with percentages seems to be correlated too - or not focusing on actual numbers that drives them does anyway.  Both a change from 2 to 4 and 1 million to 2 million means a doubling but probably the latter number is more material?

And no one in the media or Westminster seems to give a t*ss about the 1500 people a day not dying from COVID.

Good article in bmj about this from a few months ago

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259

Quote :

Accumulating data on deaths from covid-19 show an association with age that closely matches the “normal” risk we all face. Explaining risk in this way could help people understand and manage their response, says David Spiegelhalter

For example, among nearly six million people aged 65-74 in England and Wales, 7319 were registered as dying from or with covid-19 over 16 weeks, a rate of around 124 in 100 000, or 1 in 807. We would normally expect around 26 617 deaths in this age group over this period, and so covid-19 represented a 28% increased risk. This is equivalent to around 31 days’ extra risk of dying during 112 days of the epidemic

End quote:

Remember this article calculated the risk values with the spring data. Using the additional data we now have will further reduce the calculated risks.

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HOLA4420
 

Chucking 25,000 old people out of hospital into care homes without testing them to free up hospital beds...

Now that has to be peak insanity. That was done.

TBH its not just the politicians who should be strung up for that one, the medical community must have known that was a bad idea.

Quite......each will blame each other, same as its ever been.;)

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HOLA4421
8 hours ago, Pebbles said:

Absolutely I would outsource our covid response to China. It seems their authoritarianism has really worked and they have been able to force people to follow the science. Try going out without a mask, try to avoid isolating on return to the country. Try to avoid taking a covid test if you have a raised temperature detected by a public health official, how do you thinks a student would get on throwing a party in Wuhan during the outbreak?

As a libertarian it hurts to write this but for the British people are too selfish and incapable of following rules to the letter. Look at how the press reacted to the snitch on the neighbors to see the sad British mentality of trying to get around the rules. We have seen how authoritarian countries have been successful in controlling the virus unfortunately I now see us needing the same.

How can you be a libertarian and make that statement? Can you not see the oxymoron? 

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HOLA4422
 

It is not irrational. There are scientific papers estimating effectiveness of face masks.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32497510/  

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32329337/

You don't need to be an Einstein to figure out that mask reduce droplet spreading, a major way the virus jump between people. Just a common sense. 

Yes a mask will stop droplet spread but they don't stop aerosol spread. 

 

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HOLA4423
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HOLA4425
 

What happens post 3 week lockdown? 

Whats the magic this time? 

Test and trace and ignore? Might as well just skip to the end 80 % of time 

After you've called the fire brigade to drench the house you can make do dousing threatening embers with your little bucket of water :).  But yes its completely stupid repeatedly calling out the fire brigade and ruining your house with hoses because you can't be arsed with the bucket.

 

 

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