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About swankyman
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London - not anymore :)
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About Me
Too much coffee - all the time.
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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Not weaken, you mean to become milder. To become easier to transmit the virus can become either more contagious ( e.g. higher virus levels in the mucus, or it stays more in the upper respiratory system and makes a load of mucus in the nose, etc) or milder making it so people carry on without noticing they are infected with covid. What is the evidence or reasoning behind that statement? -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Probably pick up mutations every person it passed through. -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Infections don't lead to transmission in kids under 12. So .... Woops I've gone silly and should have said the age. So your right about 12 and above. My kids are are both in primary school so that's all I think of as school. 🥴 -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreaks and infections in schools are rare, a new study by Public Health England (PHE) shows. Just 67 individual cases were detected and 30 outbreaks among students and staff after schools reopened in June until they closed for the summer. Only 0.01% of pre-schools and primary schools had an outbreak, all of which were successfully contained and 70 children and 128 staff were affected. Over the same period, there were 25,470 cases recorded in England as a whole. Reported COVID-19 cases, clusters and outbreaks were reviewed daily across all educational settings in England until the end of July. PHE found that there were more likely to be outbreaks in those areas that also had a high COVID-19 incidence, suggesting transmission in the community was driving the spread in schools. This demonstrates the continued need to control the spread of infection in the community to help keep schools open, with all playing their part by washing their hands, wearing face coverings, keeping distance and getting a test if they have symptoms. Staff members were more likely to be affected by the virus than students, though not more likely than the general population as a whole. Where children did contract the infection, they were most likely to catch COVID-19 at home, usually from a parent. Half the outbreaks did not involve any students at all and transmission between students was very rare. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/study-finds-very-low-numbers-of-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
But is reporting in those countries comparable to the UK. Is the same methodology used to classify a positive case? Do they record a covid death when some dies within 28 days of a positive test. Are deaths investigated to determine true cause? The death within 28 days of a covid positive test is an example of Correlation does not mean Causation. -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Children almost never transmit the virus to others Only a few tens recorded up to now. I'll find the data when I'm not busy. 😤 -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
I live close to a hospital that has been made into a covid free area. All positive patients are taken to other hospitals. So the separation policy has been put into practice at least in some places. So why we're the nightingale hospitals not used? -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Look, Boris has reduced loads of diseases, cancer and respiratory illnesses. Amazing -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Interesting graph of deaths per 1000 I came across. It says the 2020 data is not complete. Where are we compared to ten years ago? -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
An assumption. Is there a list of countries that are good at testing and ones that aren't? -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
How many people is that then? -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Also transmission within the household is higher than everything except hospital s 🧐 -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
How much of the damage is actually just the measures enacted by the government? How much damage to the economy would happened if we had just ignored it totally? -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Maybe the 5G masts control it. 😆 -
Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
swankyman replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
Seal borders right at the start. Back before the WHO announced covid was a pandemic. It was already endemic in the UK by that point.