Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[zugzwang]

 

You think any other choice at the last election would've resulted in a better outcome?

A Corbyn govt would have spent the year financing social housing development rather than goosing the private sector with stamp duty cuts. Nor would the test and trace program and PPE logistics been outsourced to the likes of Serco and Deloitte.

Of course, had the country put the Absolute Boy into No. 10 in 2017 things would have been very different. The Tory boys murderous austerity cuts to the NHS would have been reversed, the privatisation of the care homes would never have happened, the Cygnus Exercise recommendations would have been implemented in full.

[zugzwang]

 

And how is this relevant?

We are talking about the last seven days

How is this relevant? Lol.

Another 137 today. Has the trend has changed?

[The Preacherman]

3 minutes ago, pig said:

After you've called the fire brigade to drench the house you can make do dousing threatening embers with your little bucket of water .  But yes its completely stupid repeatedly calling out the fire brigade and ruining your house with hoses because you can't be arsed with the bucket.

The fire analogy is a good one. When a building catches fire you have two choices either you put the fire out or if it too far gone you let it burn out in a controlled way. 

What you don't do is dampen the flames but without fully extinguishing as what will happen is the fire will come back stronger. 

[swankyman]

 

How is this relevant? Lol.

Another 137 today. Has the trend has changed?

What has this got to do with the the fact he said cases had doubled in the last seven days.

And why do you keep using the date reported not date of death. 

It's to fit your political agenda too. Lol. Come on, can you try to be objective?

Up to date graph of cases by date of death below

[swankyman]

[The Preacherman]

A Wirral pub has changed its name and sign. 

[zugzwang]

 

What has this got to do with the the fact he said cases had doubled in the last seven days.

And why do you keep using the date reported not date of death. 

It's to fit your political agenda too. Lol. Come on, can you try to be objective?

Up to date graph of cases by date of death below

Because it's the trend that matters, which we're trying to predict by smoothing out the day-to-day and country-by-country reporting variances.

Surely, you must understand that?

 

[Timm]

 

 

What has this got to do with the the fact he said cases had doubled in the last seven days.

And why do you keep using the date reported not date of death. 

It's to fit your political agenda too. Lol. Come on, can you try to be objective?

Up to date graph of cases by date of death below

Have you been doing this all afternoon?

137 deaths reported today. 7 days before that, 70 deaths were reported.

143 deaths reported yesterday. 7 days before that, 76 deaths were reported.

If you can't see that this is "close to doubling", well, I can't help you.

Edited October 14, 2020 by Timm

[pig]

 

The fire analogy is a good one. When a building catches fire you have two choices either you put the fire out or if it too far gone you let it burn out in a controlled way. 

What you don't do is dampen the flames but without fully extinguishing as what will happen is the fire will come back stronger. 

Yes you are definitely hell bent on burning the country to the ground lol

[zugzwang]

 

The fire analogy is a good one. When a building catches fire you have two choices either you put the fire out or if it too far gone you let it burn out in a controlled way. 

What you don't do is dampen the flames but without fully extinguishing as what will happen is the fire will come back stronger. 

Correct! As they have done in China, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand etc.

[swankyman]

 

Because it's the trend that matters, which we're trying to predict by smoothing out the day-to-day and country-by-country reporting variances.

Surely, you must understand that?

 

You might be talking about that but he said 'doubled in 7 days'. 

 🤣

 

[zugzwang]

 

Yes you are definitely hell bent on burning the country to the ground lol

Actually, a forest fire makes a better analogy than a building fire. The dynamics are very similiar to the spread of an infection through a susceptible population.

[Gbob]

 

A Wirral pub has changed its name and sign. 

Please tell me this is real and not a photoshop

[swankyman]

 

Correct! As they have done in China, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand etc.

Is the amount of tourism a factor in this?

 

[Timm]

 

Correct! As they have done in China, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand etc.

Hi Zugzwang.

Are you familiar with the chess term "Trebuchet"?

We made our move. Yes, we did not know exactly what we were dealing with, but we chose to lock down too late and too soft. Now, we are where we are. There are no good moves to make now. There is no way to avoid disaster. But we have to move.

When considering our next move, we have to consider outcomes after we lose.

 

 

Edited: Because what would have been a fun real time chat would be really shit if I am asleep when Zugzwang replies.

Edited October 14, 2020 by Timm

[DiggerUK]

 

The financial system has been insolvent since 2008, but COVID is now the cause of the collapse.

I have been wracking my brains to come up with a logical reason for this continuing farce.

This comment gets as close to my conclusion as anything. The Powers That Be were given one job to do, sort out GFC1. They haven't shown any sign of being able, capable or even willing to do that one simple job.

Then some Quack Scientists come up with a diamond wheeze to give said Powers That Be a get out of jail free card to blame everything on a virus.

Genius..._

[The Preacherman]

 

 

[Timm]

 

(...)

And why do you keep using the date reported not date of death. 

(...)

Because not all of the people who died in the last few days have yet been reported.

That graph you keep posting shows the number of deaths that have been reported so far by date of death. It will always look as if it is falling from a peak, because not all of the cases from yesterday (or the days before) have been reported yet. Few if any deaths are reported on the day they happen, but some days later they will be logged against the day that they happened on.

Look: Try an experiment. See that really low number of deaths logged to the 13th October on the graph you just posted? Look at it again in a week and see if it is still so low. Clue: It will be much higher, because over the next few days, deaths that happened on the 13th will be reported and they will then show up on the graph. But, in a weeks time, the graph will still look as if it is falling, because very few of the people who (will) die on the 20th will yet have been reported.

[swankyman]

 

I have been wracking my brains to come up with a logical reason for this continuing farce.

This comment gets as close to my conclusion as anything. The Powers That Be were given one job to do, sort out GFC1. They haven't shown any sign of being able, capable or even willing to do that one simple job.

Then some Quack Scientists come up with a diamond wheeze to give said Powers That Be a get out of jail free card to blame everything on a virus.

Genius..._

I think they were going for herd immunity at the start, then the press and social media went mental, so they did what the people thought they wanted. 

And now they are stuck, they don't want to admit they've made mistakes with the first lockdown so just keep rolling on.

Like the masks thing. They know they make hardly any difference but they needed people to feel safe and go out and spend money. So now they work.

But like all safety equipment, they encourage more unsafe behaviour, so now people get closer together because they feel safe with the mask on.

Now again people are scared so they have to lockdown, firstly to prove the first lockdown wasn't pointless and secondly to plicate the screams of fear from the public.

[A.steve]

 

Then some Quack Scientists come up with a diamond wheeze to give said Powers That Be a get out of jail free card to blame everything on a virus.

Expert opinion after the 2008/2009 financial failure was that monetary policy could not provide a solution - and that the solution must relate to fiscal policy.

Fiscal policy has been transformed by the COVID response.  The Bank of England has monetized sovereign debt - at scale... while such central bank activity was previously thought of as completely forbidden.  The EU is talking about fiscal (as well as monetary) union - and plans a vast shared pool of money.

It certainly seems plausible that a pandemic was the best idea that emerged over the past decade.

[captainb]

 

Please tell me this is real and not a photoshop

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8840463/Pub-locked-Liverpool-renamed-Three-Bellends.html

[The Preacherman]

 

Please tell me this is real and not a photoshop

Its for real. 

MERSEYSIDE PUB RENAMED 'THE THREE BELLENDS' IN SWIPE AT SENIOR TORIES

A pub in Merseyside has rebranded as 'The Three Bellends', in a dig at Prime Minister Boris Johnson and two of his closest allies in government.

The pub's owner, Daniel Davies, said: "The government has unequivocally blamed our sector for being fundamental in the spreading of Covid-19, despite there being overwhelming evidence to prove otherwise.

"Our business has been decimated and their lack of action has compounded the problem.

"Westminster's further decision to pick and choose which types of venue may open, based on those serving meals for example, is mind-boggling."

https://www.joe.co.uk/news/merseyside-pub-renamed-the-three-bellends-253135

[GeneCernan]

I read the comment about COVID being used as a scapegoat for the collapse of the Ponzi scheme, I get that. I can see how *some* countries like, oh I don't know, the UK, USA, Germany, France, Italy etc... might have a virtual fireside chat and all go down the route of lockdowns and terrifying people so that they can give a believable lie about systematic collapse.

But... governments all over the world are doing the lockdown/muzzles/social distancingthing. Have they all colluded to achieve a common goal of having something to blame? 

So what I am asking is there really a synchronised global effort going on here, with the Ponzi blame game being played, or is it actually the case that most governments don't have a clue, they are all learning as they go and some countries just did stuff (a lot) better than we did?

[NobodyInParticular]

 

I merely argue why going to a gym or pool where social distancing is easy and cleaning constant - given exercising makes you healthy and slim and therefore less likely to suffer adverse outcomes from COVID

Exercise helps you to keep fit, but if people can't manage to walk up and down stairs a bit or do some sit ups for a few weeks then the world is lost.

[The Preacherman]

 

I read the comment about COVID being used as a scapegoat for the collapse of the Ponzi scheme, I get that. I can see how *some* countries like, oh I don't know, the UK, USA, Germany, France, Italy etc... might have a virtual fireside chat and all go down the route of lockdowns and terrifying people so that they can give a believable lie about systematic collapse.

But... governments all over the world are doing the lockdown/muzzles/social distancingthing. Have they all colluded to achieve a common goal of having something to blame? 

So what I am asking is there really a synchronised global effort going on here, with the Ponzi blame game being played, or is it actually the case that most governments don't have a clue, they are all learning as they go and some countries just did stuff (a lot) better than we did?

Yes sorry to spoil the fun for the great reset conspiracy theorists we're all now ruled by populist that do whatever is popular rather than what is best. Unfortunately in the UK we seem to have scraped the bottom of the populism barrel and have a bunch of incompetents hand picked to deliver brexit. How else can you explain the Nadine Dorries is a minister?