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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. Massively so! If you've got a chunk of cash the sad truth is it makes sense to buy a house with a nice amount of leverage right now just to preserve it. I'm watching these price increases the same way I watched an A380 lumber up from the runway at seemingly stall speeds at an airshow. Looked like everyone was going to die but it kept banking and rolling and turning around defying all kinds of physics.
  2. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60938262 House prices grew at the fastest annual pace for more than 17 years in March despite the cost of living crisis, according to Nationwide. Annual growth in house prices hit 14.3% in February, the mortgage lender said, the strongest pace since November 2004. The cost of a typical UK home reached a new record high of £265,312, rising £33,000 in the past year, it said. Prices are being pushed higher by robust demand, limited supply and a strong jobs market, it added.
  3. I put all spending on CC and then just clears automatically when due so no interest charged. Worth doing for Section 75 CCA protection and an old habit from interest rates were reasonable. When Igloo went bust I got moved to E.On but the Direct Debit did not. Now I wait to pay them until I get a threat of a £10 late fee and then I pay the two months overdue in one go on my credit card. This adds about £200ish a month to my usual run rate. I think if people are still buying the same stuff and not cutting back then of course their credit card bills would increase. What I'd be looking at is the split between the transactors and the revolvers. One uses CCs like I do and just clears the balance on time, every time. The other juggles the balances around and doesn't clear in full. If the latter are adding to their debt levels then they're in the doodoo.
  4. So there's going to be some precipitous halving of values in the next two years. Steeper and deeper falls than even during the biggest financial crisis for 80 years despite interest rates being a fraction of their value back then AND far higher inflation? Inflation is around 10% right now. Few years of that and flat house prices and that 50% overvalue is pretty close to par. But mainly the point here is what is going to cause the biggest correction in prices ever recorded? If they are 50% overvalued now then presumably they were also horrendously overvalued pre pandemic. Perhaps S&P just trying to trad cautiously and build relevance again after neglecting all this back in the mid noughties and stamping AAA on CDSs?
  5. Curses Batman! They seem to keep revising it up!
  6. Probably, until the next recession... then it'll be the same guys in all but name.
  7. It seems you think it's fine but why would they surveyor be wasting their time asking estate agents for this information too? How is it fine when prices are rising at 10% (or falling) per annum? £700K house gets down values £35K on data that's out of date. If you have such significant lags then you'd have a problem. I can only tell you of my experience which is that they ask estate agents. Always thought it made a bit of a mockery and also gave rival agents an opportunity to hit back if someone like Foxtons had come along and sold something for way too much money.
  8. Actually, the LR data isn't that 'live'. A sale agree today wont show up until after completion around three months later. In a moving market (up or down) the LR is out of date. Perhaps builders are in for a tough time but ultimately we need builders to build houses. If they are constrained we'll just have less building. Not necessarily a massive issue immediately but overtime it will be.
  9. Doesn't surprise me. So many 'incentives' dressed up as a way to help you pay more. Stamp duty paid... deposit paid..... first year mortgage paid etc etc. All this does is enable a higher sale price to be recorded as revenue in the builders' books. If you give someone the stampduty (now abolished for most FTBs anyway) then they can use that to add to the deposit and borrow even more and pay even more. How lovely of the builders. I know new builds are all nice and easy and my place needs a lot doing to it but I'd never buy a new build simply because they're a total rip off and will lose you money in a flat market as the new build premium wears off. I'd sooner live in a van!
  10. Actually, most surveyors performing a physical valuation will go and ask estate agents what it's worth and for some comparables. Desktop valuations are, i imagine, done on Zoopla by someone in admin.
  11. It seemed that lending multiples rather than monthly payments was the criteria most FTBs faced. They could afford more than the monthly payments (indeed many already were/are in rental). They are stress tested to ensure they can afford increases. It might put some off, sure, but if you've been sat in rented saving the past 5 years you've seen your rent go up each year (probably) and house prices galloping away from you - especially the past two-ish years.
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