Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Grayphil]

 

Two anti-lockdown petitions have been gaining traction on the Parliamentary Petitions website. Both have been gathering 1000s of signatures per hour during the day. 

Prevent gyms closing due to a spike in Covid 19 cases

Lower university tuition fees for students until online teaching ends

Thanks, signed both of them, but the gym is close to my heart, having just had it taken away again. 

[Social Justice League]

Looks like we'll be going into a 2-3 week "Circuit Breaker".

So tedious all this.  It won't work as the moment everyone comes back out, the virus will start spreading again.

Same as during the summer "Eat out to help out" plan.  Super spreaders tucking into steak pie and chips.

[Grayphil]

 

 

When COVID-19 superspreaders are talking, where you sit in the room matters

 

•  

To understand how the coronavirus can spread, we injected aerosol particles similar in size to those from humans into a room and then monitored them with sensors. We used a 30-foot by 26-foot university classroom designed to accommodate 30 students that had a ventilation system that met the recommended standards.

When we released particles at the front of the classroom, they reached all the way to the back of the room within 10 to 15 minutes. However, because of active ventilation in the room, the concentrations at the back, about 20 feet from the source, were about one-tenth of the concentrations close to the source.

That suggests that with appropriate ventilation, the highest risk for getting COVID-19 could be limited to a small number of people near the infected speaker. As the time spent indoors with an infected speaker increases, however, risk extends to the entire room, even if ventilation is good.

 

https://theconversation.com/when-covid-19-superspreaders-are-talking-where-you-sit-in-the-room-matters-145966?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

 

CDC finally acknowledges the aerosol risk

In the past, the transmission of respiratory diseases has focused on the role of larger particles that are generated when we sneeze and cough. These droplets fall quickly to the ground, and social distancing and mask wearing can largely prevent infection from them.

The bigger concern now is the role of tiny particles known as aerosols that are generated when we talk, sing or even just breathe. These particles, often smaller than 5 micrometers, can escape from cloth face masks and linger in air for up to about 12 hours. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention finally acknowledged that risk on Oct. 5 after Trump was hospitalized and several other people in or close to the administration tested positive for COVID-19.

While these smaller particles, on average, carry less virus than larger particles that people emit when they cough or sneeze, the high infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 combined with the high viral load before symptoms appear makes these particles important for airborne disease transmission.

So masks are useless, and actually van trap aerosols.. And let's be honest, this actually seems to be shown in the data. 

(I do know this wasn't what it was getting at fully.)

[Grayphil]

 

Not quite true. You will have "top up" waves as people will lose immunity and new born children without immunity will be added to the population. 

I think new born children do have immunity.. 

What evidence do you have to suggest they are succeptable, 

I mention this, as my brother and sis in law have just had a baby. 6 weeks ago, whilst in hospital, mother caught covid inside, but baby didn't.

 

[Peter Hun]

 

Indeed however as Matt Hancock said yesterday there is no decent peer reviewed evidence with placebo on the use of vitamin d in the prevention of covid

Vit D is undergoing a trial, so we should find out.

[Peter Hun]

 

So masks are useless, and actually van trap aerosols.. And let's be honest, this actually seems to be shown in the data. 

(I do know this wasn't what it was getting at fully.)

No, the key point is that you should not be inside with other people who are opening their mouths, unless there is very well designed ventilation.

Whatever you may think, masks are very effective at making it safer.

[Grayphil]

 

There is no reasoning with you.

Pardon?

What? Are you serious?

I am talking about the 2/3 week lockdown.. 

All it will do is cause more harm

[pig]

 

Any lockdown will only slow down the infection to allow the health service NHS to cope with the increasing hospital admissions.....any lockdown will have to be opened up again, keep locking in, locking out will cause great harm.....a lockdown unlocked without a workable test, track, trace and isolate that works will cause more economic and mental health problems on top of covid damage and death, moving infections further into the future......until we have a vaccine would do the same, the virus will jump back into the community to do its worse again.

How can £12 billion pounds be spent setting up private companies with no experience to do a job of providing a life saving service that has clearly failed.....how is so much public money and debt allowed to be wasted by so few......why did we not invest the bulk of the money into our local health services who know their area, people have trust in, local communities, nurses, doctors and councils who know their people, know their area and known their business...... beggars belief.

Especially when local leaders and health experts are begging to be allowed to look after the populations they know and smashed industries are begging for support.

Instead the government is trying to sideline the above presumably to get on with opaquely spaffing public funds on the private sector and dithering as the disease starts to dismantle whole regions

https://goodlawproject.org/case/operation-moonshot/

https://goodlawproject.org/case/money-for-dominic-cummings-mates/

https://goodlawproject.org/news/the-ppe-fiasco/

 

[Peter Hun]

 

Wrong. Unless of course our PM runs all the other European countries too who have faced the same situation.

At this point you want to jump up and accuse me of defending him (I'm not btw) but pointing out your personal dislike of him is clouding your judgement. ....at the risk of sounding like master Yoda there🤔

The PM has not followed scientific advice and is directly responsible for the spread of COVID and the length of the first lockdown.

Thats a fact, not opinion.

[Grayphil]

 

No, the key point is that you should not be inside with other people who are opening their mouths, unless there is very well designed ventilation.

Whatever you may think, masks are very effective at making it safer.

I'm not really against masks tbh, they are uncomfortable, especially when doing physical work however. 

Im sure I read something the other day where a former chief scientist actually said that thay could be trapping covid, and making it more likely to be inhaled. 

But it could have actually been a dream.. I just don't know anymore! 

[zugzwang]

 

As has been pointed out a short lockdown would be pointless, just back to the same position shortly afterwards. A long one, well, the same thing really, just over a different timescale.

As pointed out by whom?

The peer-reviewed science of Zero Covid can be found here. Practical examples of its success: China, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand, Niger, Rwanda etc.

The Zero Covid state is an absorbing boundary. Difficult to reach but easy to maintain once you're there. Partial lockdowns are sub-optimal and likely to fail. A full lockdown with strict observance over 2-3 weeks is required. The UK could have eradicated the virus this Summer had an effective (decentralised) test and trace program been up and running.

 

[Riedquat]

 

As pointed out by whom?

The peer-reviewed science of Zero Covid can be found here. Practical examples of its success: China, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand, Niger, Rwanda etc.

The Zero Covid state is an absorbing boundary. Difficult to reach but easy to maintain once you're there. Partial lockdowns are sub-optimal and likely to fail. A full lockdown with strict observance over 2-3 weeks is required. The UK could have eradicated the virus this Summer had an effective (decentralised) test and trace program been up and running.

 

And it would've all started again anyway.

[Social Justice League]

 

Vit D is undergoing a trial, so we should find out.

There's growing suspicion that Vit D is a key factor in whether someone gets hit hard with COVID. 

One reason why many bame people are suffering worse symptoms, as they don't absorb Vit D as easily.

[Riedquat]

 

Whatever you may think, masks are very effective at making it safer.

 

Always someone prepared to believe anything based on extrapolating from specific situations into absurdly broad generalisations.

[pig]

 

 

Always someone prepared to believe anything based on extrapolating from specific situations into absurdly broad generalisations.

Are we still arguing over masks lol

[zugzwang]

 

And it would've all started again anyway.

Small, discrete outbreaks may occur due to the virus being brought in from overseas. These are easily suppressed without the need for widespread economic disruption.

[Peter Hun]

 

I'm not really against masks tbh, they are uncomfortable, especially when doing physical work however. 

Im sure I read something the other day where a former chief scientist actually said that thay could be trapping covid, and making it more likely to be inhaled. 

But it could have actually been a dream.. I just don't know anymore! 

Just wear a mask, don't be an idiot like this one -

 

 

Always someone prepared to believe anything based on  "£$%^& ****** etc.

 

[pig]

 

As pointed out by whom?

The peer-reviewed science of Zero Covid can be found here. Practical examples of its success: China, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand, Niger, Rwanda etc.

The Zero Covid state is an absorbing boundary. Difficult to reach but easy to maintain once you're there. Partial lockdowns are sub-optimal and likely to fail. A full lockdown with strict observance over 2-3 weeks is required. The UK could have eradicated the virus this Summer had an effective (decentralised) test and trace program been up and running.

 

Big question however is if the government  can't/won't put into place the measures required.

We've had what 8+ months of this ? Isn't the question nobody is asking that due to repeated government failures, lockdown - who's likely length is presumably increasing by the day -  may be the only resort left, but that this lockdowns 'success' hinges on the government not failing this time...? 

[Grayphil]

 

The PM has not followed scientific advice and is directly responsible for the spread of COVID and the length of the first lockdown.

Thats a fact, not opinion.

I agree with you, he had a couple of options, and by the time he went for the lockdown, it was far too late and loose.. (even though I wanted Sweden) 

This latest outbreak, however seems to be driven by schools and Universities returning. 

If these triage figures are anything to go by, seems we may be about to go into decline in cases and admissions to hospital. 

 

[pig]

Will this:

https://www.ft.com/content/dd6611af-df41-41a6-aab6-e5fae3cda95f

 

Fix this ?:

https://www.ft.com/content/f7ef001e-af2b-41e7-b59a-aa07996b49cc

[captainb]

 

Will this:

https://www.ft.com/content/dd6611af-df41-41a6-aab6-e5fae3cda95f

 

Fix this ?:

https://www.ft.com/content/f7ef001e-af2b-41e7-b59a-aa07996b49cc

Clearly not. 

If you want to go down the lockdown route once its endemic the only way is to have a full army on the streets lockdown for a couple of months ala china, then seal the border, ala china.

People dont seem keen on that idea for some reason (cure worse than disease perhaps?). So we are left with worst of all worlds.

 

Apparently you cant lock down the at risk groups as that would break their rights. So why lockdown anyone by extension?

Edited October 14, 2020 by captainb

[This time]

 

Clearly not. 

If you want to go down the lockdown route once its endemic the only way is to have a full army on the streets lockdown for a couple of months ala china, then seal the border, ala china.

People dont seem keen on that idea for some reason (cure worse than disease perhaps?). So we are left with worst of all worlds.

 

Apparently you cant lock down the at risk groups as that would break their rights. So why lockdown anyone by extension?

You can't just lockdown the at risk groups because they're far more likely than the general population to need regular medical appointments, medical tests, carers etc. 

[captainb]

 

You can't just lockdown the at risk groups because they're far more likely than the general population to need regular medical appointments, medical tests, carers etc. 

Then pay the carers a relatively huge amount to lockdown with them. Would still be a more viable medium term solution that currently.

What is astonishing is that scotland opened up carehomes yesterday to hairdressers etc. 

[Social Justice League]

If the government won't lock down properly and won't let the virus rip, then what do they think they are doing?

Since March the whole sorry saga has been a total disaster actually and I honestly can't see an end to it while we've still got Cummings and Boris driving the specsavers bus down the road to ruin.

[This time]

 

Then pay the carers a relatively huge amount to lockdown with them. Would still be a more viable medium term solution that currently.

What is astonishing is that scotland opened up carehomes yesterday to hairdressers etc. 

It's not just carers though. You need phlebotomists, nurses, GPs, hospital consultants, midwives, radiographers etc etc. Then you need a safe way for the vulnerable to attend these services - bus drivers, taxi drivers etc.