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What / Who will collapse first in 2019


reddog

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HOLA441

My removal of money from zopa started really well... Then it slowed... Now its a trickle. 

 

Down to 5% left, something like 400 loans with 60 in default.

 

I suspect I won't see all of the money but still made a good return. 

 

Funding circle still a big worry,  same defaults this week as I say in 2017.

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HOLA445
Just now, Saving For a Space Ship said:

The economy is plumbing new depths, I get that sinking feeling every day. 

This is the result of low interest rates and the QE tap being switched on. 

Pun tastic

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45 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

The stuff they appear to sell is nasty and looks like plastic. I'm not surprised nobody wants it.

Now the owner has pulled the plug.

Edited by Errol
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6 minutes ago, Errol said:

The stuff they appear to sell is nasty and looks like plastic. I'm not surprised nobody wants it.

Now the owner has pulled the plug.

Every Bathstore has the worst google reviews. Now, they're always sited near to/opposite Topps Tiles so I wonder if that will have a knock on effect.

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HOLA449

Back to zopa... Sales have basically stopped with 5% of my investment on there which is more than I'd make this year from interest 

 

I'm probably one of the lucky ones had a few good years profit out of the but this hammers the final return. 

 

Will zopa be around in 5 years time, I'd expect so. 

Will funding circle, I expect not. My losses there will likely x

Consume any profit from zopa. 

IMHO.... Avoid avoid avoid peer to peer... The risk is high and the reward is no where near what is claimed. 

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9 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Every Bathstore has the worst google reviews. Now, they're always sited near to/opposite Topps Tiles so I wonder if that will have a knock on effect.

Often new stuff is of poorer quality than the better made existing stuff, goes for bathrooms, kitchens and phones......reduce, reuse, recycle......the days of pulling out perfectly adequate and workable well made things to replace are over....ripout the good to replace with not so good........the throw away days are over.;)

Edited by winkie
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1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

I ve also read poeple are not buying £1000 phones anymore. 

Carphone warehouse was a poor acquisition for Dixons

They mentioned that people were more often asking to buy the phone outright with a "sim only" plan that works out cheaper.   2 of my friends have gone off-contract, not "upgraded" and gone sim-only on my advice. Saving about £240/yr each.  

The "savvy shopper" mentality among the masses will be the death of many businesses that rely on people not shopping around. (Telecom, utilities, Insurance etc).   

When 35% of your income goes on rent something has to give. 

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2 hours ago, Council estate capitalist said:

Carphone warehouse was a poor acquisition for Dixons

They mentioned that people were more often asking to buy the phone outright with a "sim only" plan that works out cheaper.   2 of my friends have gone off-contract, not "upgraded" and gone sim-only on my advice. Saving about £240/yr each.  

The "savvy shopper" mentality among the masses will be the death of many businesses that rely on people not shopping around. (Telecom, utilities, Insurance etc).   

When 35% of your income goes on rent something has to give. 

over priced contracts are a thing of the past, now its all about how much data per month there is and how much is the phone sim free and payg. 

Samsung are trying to win sales from the Chinese sellers doing £100 trade in deals on any old phone and cash back on top.  i have bought 4 phones already this month to sell on and one to keep. ?

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On 05/06/2019 at 14:32, Council estate capitalist said:

I've seen many crap businesses go to the wall and looking at the statement of affairs (document filed to companies house listing creditors) Funding circle is often the biggest creditor. 

and so it came to pass...

BBC News: Funding Circle shares dive on revenue warning

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9 hours ago, Timbuk3 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/01/footwear-chain-office-could-close-stores-as-part-of-restructure 

 

More shops to close, more pain for retail estate investors/landlords. All these shops closures have to start hurting at some point.  British Land, investment banks, surely nursing losses on all the retail space sitting empty.

Imho Office isn't in the same position as businesses like debenhams, HoF etc but i think this is the start if a tidal wave of private equity owners saying 'if debenhams/HoF/Topshop can restructure and renegotiate its rent using a CVA then so can we!'

All it takes is one person looking at the numbers in a board room in South Africa to decide the cost of a restructure is worth the reduced rent and a one off windfall batch of tax write offs on closing some less profitable branches. 

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48 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Imho Office isn't in the same position as businesses like debenhams, HoF etc but i think this is the start if a tidal wave of private equity owners saying 'if debenhams/HoF/Topshop can restructure and renegotiate its rent using a CVA then so can we!'

All it takes is one person looking at the numbers in a board room in South Africa to decide the cost of a restructure is worth the reduced rent and a one off windfall batch of tax write offs on closing some less profitable branches. 

Yep, the floodgates have been well and truly opened. I expect pretty much ever mid level retailer to "restructure". 

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HOLA4421

Want to Buy a Car? China’s Got a Deal for You

Beijing is pushing auto financing to boost consumption. Hoping new credit will solve old problems has rarely turned out well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-01/china-s-push-into-car-financing-comes-as-credit-markets-look-weak

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On 02/07/2019 at 09:04, Will! said:

 and so it came to pass...

 BBC News: Funding Circle shares dive on revenue warning

It was widely touted in P2P investor circles that FC were making lots and lots of new loans prior to going public, That's how the game is played, highest revenue/EBITDA just prior to going public. The IPO price is a multiple of this. 

What then happens is you find that 1. the loans you rushed to make are crap, 2. you're finding it harder to originate the same number of loans because whoever wants one has one so credit quality ends up slipping further. 

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Quote

William Hill plans to close about 700 betting shops across the UK, putting 4,500 jobs at risk

It said a large number of redundancies was anticipated, with 4,500 employees at risk of losing their jobs.

The firm added that the move followed the government's decision in April to reduce the maximum stake on fixed-odds betting terminals to £2.

Since then, the company added, it had seen "a significant fall" in gaming machine revenues.

"The group will look to apply voluntary redundancy and redeployment measures extensively and will be providing support to all colleagues throughout the process," its statement said.

"Subject to the outcome of the consultation process, shop closures are likely to begin before the end of the year."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48868335

 

good riddance 

Edited by hurlerontheditch
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On 02/07/2019 at 00:10, Timbuk3 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/01/footwear-chain-office-could-close-stores-as-part-of-restructure 

 

More shops to close, more pain for retail estate investors/landlords. All these shops closures have to start hurting at some point.  British Land, investment banks, surely nursing losses on all the retail space sitting empty.

I was a little premature, but the volume of sale emails my OH was getting kinda gave it away that things were not so rosy!

office.png.69ef7eaaefd315955c7d69d868fe40ae.png
 

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