FT Alphaville: Is the “science” behind the lockdown any good? (Registration but not subscription required.)
It's difficult to do good science when the data are so sketchy.
For example the UK's Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre recently published a report on the first reported 9026 patients critically ill with COVID-19 in the UK.
A major objective of government policy is to minimise the number of potential earlier deaths due to lack of intensive care beds. For anyone trying to make policy decisions, the important questions are:
What attributes make people more likely to need intensive care beds? (For example high blood pressure, diabetes, smoking etc.)
How prevalent are those attributes in the community?
Can that prevalence be used to predict demand for intensive care beds?
Other than age, sex, raised Body Mass Index and ethnicity, the ICNARC report does little to identify those attributes.