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House Price Crash Forum


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About NoHPCinTheUK

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  1. Oh good. Can we have the same arrangements for the residential properties?
  2. Which sectors? I do have mixed feedbacks here from my friends. Those in the software industry are basically WFH, the Europeans have gone back and there’s a shortage of good developers as the influx from Europe seems to have stopped with large firms offering remote contracts from anywhere basically. But I appreciate this is a unique industry. Most of the people I know are on hybrid arrangements with flexibility. I also know people who have gone back to the office, they usually work for small firms anyway.
  3. Honestly, TfL is one of those words we will read a lot about in the future. The current business is no longer affordable. I am sure we are nowhere near pre-Covid levels and we still have trains running for a capacity which is no longer there. The last time you’d find a seat on a central line train at 9 am was probably a century ago. They will need to cut a lot there and probably work on different projects not the 25 billion new lines they like to talk about.
  4. No, I live in London and I can assure you that outside some postcodes the average Londoner is not wealthy nor sitting millions of assets. Real people live in Crystal Palace, Croydon, Woolwich, Ealing, Edmonton, Wembley etc Let me remind you that the current prime minister was our mayor and we still haven’t seen 1 pence from the 350mil on the bus. Also, one last question: I am neutral on politics, although I think I am a sort of conservative/free market guy…anyway…why should I vote Tory? I mean, net of Brexit what are their policies/plans for the future? Passive/aggressive notes to bring people back to the office? A new ambitious HTB policy? More multi billion schemes with 1 bed starting at 400k sold in HK or Dubai?
  5. Flats are all short leaseholds. Still no idea why someone will spend more than half a million for a 19y lease tbh.
  6. Nothing to worry about here. There’s an army of cash buyers ready to save the housing market. Russians with a nice passport and a nice accent to hide their real roots, HKers, the Arabs, the drug dealers, the big asset managers. They will all bid for a 2 bed ex council in Lewisham. Live on the BBC on Friday night.
  7. I think we have two ways of interpreting what’s going on with the BoE here. The market didn’t like their move, the £ is down by a lot in FX terms today. These are huge moves for just 1 day. The BoE know inflation is going to be a lot higher, and they know they will need to raise IRs al lot higher. But they don’t want to raise IRs now, as they need to leave some room to lower them in case the recession is really bad? or they know inflation is going to be a lot higher, but they want it to run at the expense of the sterling pound.
  8. There are already plans to hire additional border force workforce at Heathrow to process all the people from HK who can’t wait to exchange their $ for a 300 sqf flat somewhere in zone 3.
  9. Very good. Housing market is cheaper now for a foreign investor. I see a 1 bed in Crystal Palace going north of 1 mil now. We are all going to be richer.
  10. They will crater the whole economy before realising that this housing market is not sustainable.
  11. £ on track to minus 1.5% vs the $ and around 1% vs the €.
  12. The £ is in fact dropping. We need someone to go live on prime time, look 60 mil people in the eyes and say that the party is over.
  13. They’re talking about inflation hitting two digits by the end of the year. Make to mistake, IR will go up and we will see a recession, if we’re not in one already.
  14. I’ve posted around this on these pages several times. At these valuations every .25 raise in IR will see mortgage offer go down by at least 5% for the avg household. The choice is to either find the extra cash somewhere or accept lower selling prices. I do think we will se a stagnant market for weeks, even months, with potential vendors holding their powder dry until they will be forced to make the first move. This forced move could only be a recession at this point. We need more supply for prices to go down. Having said that, don’t get too excited, I am sure someone in Whitehall is already putting numbers on an excel to check for how long the gov can sustain the mortgage market. I wouldn’t be surprised if they came up with a multibillion plan to prevent the house from collapsing, with Labour offering even more close to the GE.
  15. Money is backed by the amount of future assets the economy will produce. When you get a loan, you’re actually borrowing money from your future self. Banks only connect the present with the future. If they think your future will be bright they will lend you at small rates, if not higher rates. It couldn’t be simpler than that, but a lot of people still fail to understand that what banks do is simply moving money on a time line, discounting it by a given rate. This is literally what you read in your first semester at uni when studying economics but still there are people with strange theories around. If I had to link money with a commodity it will be of course oil and fossil fuels in general as the production of new assets is a result of the availability of these resources in our system first and foremost.
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