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Council estate capitalist

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  1. It'll be interesting to see Rishi's announcement next week on the furlough scheme. If the tax-payer will cough up 60% and the employer HAS to come up with the other 20% then I can see massive waves of redundancies at the low-skill end just on that 20% cost. Or if employees are on 0 hours contracts they'll be "taken off furlough" and just told there's just no work. I also think if we see a rise in people complaining (Mumsnet, Dailymail, FB etc) about being made to take holiday then that is a good indicator that the redundancy is just around the corner.
  2. I suspect many employers will just make the employees take the holiday entitlement during their notice period. But it's still a big issue. For those remaining employed they'll still be taking that leave they have accrued during Furlough. I also suspect (in larger organisations) that they'll be a skew towards taking all/most of the holiday towards the end of the holiday year. My employer is making people take leave that they had already booked off "pre-lockdown" which I think will lead to people trying to book holiday at the the last minute (to avoid "losing") it.
  3. Some of those are hilarious, They are a fascinating window in to the excesses of the early 2000s. The pwoperty developer "anyone can make money" culture. Someone has uploaded many full episodes to Youtube if anyone's in need of a laugh.
  4. My thoughts are that for many if they paid below 80% they'd see a huge increase in Universal Credit claims as more people become eligible for it or looked into the possibility of claiming. Single >25 on 80% of 16hr's at NMW can get about £100 UC a month (without rent). For each pound net pay went down the amount of UC would go up by 63p.
  5. Fraud in this scheme was always going to be a big issue. especially in the scrappier businesses out there (If they even bothered with PAYE in the first place). In some cases I can understand bending the rules a bit because of the inflexible nature of the scheme. (store managers checking a shop is secure once a week for example). I'm surprised HMRC don't have the ability to route the calls properly, technologically It isn't that hard but I'm skeptical about this "snitch hotlines". There is one for benefit fraud where about 80%~ of the complaints are false and usually malicious calls made by ex's/warring neighbors.
  6. Honestly you can't teach it and you can see that from how business owners have reacted to the pandemic. The ones that have setup collection/delivery or completely switched product lines rather than just close. I've also taken the loan to use in expanding. at 0% interest for a year & 2.5% beyond that it's a no-brainer to take it.
  7. Take it out into the Ltd, No personal guarantee. Run the business long enough to safely pay out preferred suppliers/salaries to owners, + clear any personally guaranteed overdraft/debt. Then with £5k left call in the insolvency practitioners to make the problem disappear.
  8. I can see the logic in that 60/20/20 loss split. For some employers it still represents a fantastic deal compared to the stat redundancy payments they'd be on the hook for if they made redundancies/loss of skilled staff, However some types of business with young/short service/non-specialised staff (retail, pubs,warehouse etc) will be financially better off by making redundancies & re-hiring if needed (It's not like there would be a shortage of unemployed when they come to rehire!)
  9. I'm shocked by how many don't have £100, I almost don't believe it. I tried to find the methodology behind the study but couldn't find it. Could it be that <£100 is what the 16 million adults have segregated as "savings" either in a dedicated savings account?, or in a "mental piggybank" that excludes whatever is in the current account/wallet "because that money is for bills, not savings". I can certainly believe that 10 million~ are unable to actually count how much savings/debt they have. They just think month to month.
  10. She's just been laid off and it looks like she received her final wage which has (rightly) reduced the amount of UC she'll receive, If she had waited to claim the day after her wages came through she might have received the full amount of UC. She will have entitled to £317.82 + £251.63 in rent for the month (I'm using the pre-April rates). UC reduces by 63p for each £1 of take home pay so if you add £317.82+£251.63 take away £141 (amount she received). Then divide the result by 0.63 you get approx £680 in wages. There are other explanations, most articles on UC conveniently focus on the net figure the claimant receives in cash whilst ignoring any wages, ignoring repayments of the "advance loan" most claimants take, ignoring payments towards previous benefit over-payments, utility arrears, rent arrears etc. I think UC is a badly run system filled with IT problems however I have yet to see an article that has a complete and proper accounting.
  11. Debenhams unable to reach agreement with landlord Hammerson in relation to 5 of their stores - 1000 more jobs gone Uber has announced plans to cut 3700 full-time staff
  12. I saw in the Daily Mail that over 50% were on state support. Reading through I could see they'd double counted so wanted to run the numbers myself and see how many in this country were effectively on the governments books/not paying income tax, I also wanted to include the sizable number of public sector workers who's employment relies ultimately on the tax revenue collected from the rest of the population. Furloughed 6,300,000 - Government data. 0-19 15,098,000 - 2011 census data - Yes you can get a job at 16 but how realistically how many will (and how many will be paying tax in) 65+ 10,376,000 - 2011 census data - I acknowledge that some will be working/paying tax however most won't pay in more than their state pension (They've paid in, In the same way Mr Madoffs' investors paid in.) Economically inactive 8,370,000 - ONS data - Carers, housewives, disabled, too lazy to pretend to look for work etc, BTL landlords. Certainly won't be paying tax. Public sector workers 5,390,000 - ONS Data - Admittedly there might be some crossover with furloughed workers but likely minimal. Unemployed 1,364,000 ONS Data - Most will be signing on or at least not paying tax (I ignored counting UC claims as it would crossover other categories too much). So that's 46,898,000 out of 66,650,000 (total population) essentially being propped up by the government.
  13. I wonder how many of them are posting gross earnings rather than net or excluding child-care costs which are directly related to work. Many will be legit, but their are a lot of non-jobs out there. Layers of middle management and hangers on especially in public sector/charities. Tax credits baby! Not quite but a couple with 4 kids (born before 2017) would get £1785.18 plus rent in benefits.
  14. I was thinking it might be because the employee has to agree to being furloughed as it's a change of contract. 20% loss people will accept, 40% loss I think many would refuse & take their chances on not being made redundant. A friend of mine is pissed off that it might be dropping to 60%. Oh the unfairness of it. In many cases the lower paid furloughed/people with kids especially are able to claim (newly increased) Universal Credits to "top up" their wages. Perhaps not wanting to have the negative press of millions of new UC claims is a reason not to lower the percentage.
  15. I thought that when I saw it on the news earlier. It's £3k a year cheaper, The quality is probably going to be much better than whatever rushed attempt the University puts on + Student doesn't run the risk of disruptions/cost if the uni decides to suddenly return to classroom based learning (To fill their debt funded accommodation blocks).
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