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What / Who will collapse first in 2019

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As stated on 2018 thread it was Monarch:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/more-than-400-jobs-lost-as-monarch-engineering-collapses-11598512

 

So I win right? :)

 

but seriously, any prediction for big collapses or unexpected collapses in 2019?

 

one from me is that Debenhams will collapse, fall in to the hands of Mike Ashley, who will use his leverage as big High Street employer to demand a government bailout of the High Street, just putting more money in his pocket (surely even the current Tory party wouldn't fall for that?)

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I was chatting to the owner of our favourite restaurant on Friday - they are by the theatre and get a lot of theatre trade except during Panto season - and that's been true for 5+ years. The Christmas restaurant business is made up of Office Parties and some brands are just not suitable for Christmas Parties...

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1 hour ago, Will! said:

My picks:

The Restaurant Group

Carluccio's

 

TPTB depend on suppressing wages in order for their schemes to continue. From Blair's BTLs, through crappy chain restaurants, to the BoE only caring about wage inflation, not asset inflation. 

Wage inflation would force higher interest rates, bringing down the ponzi aspects of the UK economy.

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I think one of the big furniture companies will go under. Bensons for Beds, Dreams, or maybe the likes of DFS. I can't imagine who goes to an out-of-town retail park to visit a lacklustre showroom to view a load of rubbish products and spend a large amount of money completely unnecessarily.

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1 hour ago, Orsino said:

I think one of the big furniture companies will go under. Bensons for Beds, Dreams, or maybe the likes of DFS. I can't imagine who goes to an out-of-town retail park to visit a lacklustre showroom to view a load of rubbish products and spend a large amount of money completely unnecessarily.

+1, They've been on my watchlist, and Harveys. 

Carpetright has taken a bath recently, Can't imagine furniture is doing too well. 

I think they are suffering the same problems that Carpetright/Homebase/B&Q are suffering.

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Brexit + the government mandated wage rises are guaranteed to sink a few restaurants, pubs and hotels that are hanging on.

if the majority of your staff are minimum wage then April brings a hefty increase not to mention the pension changes up to 3%

from £7.83 to £8.21 per hour circa 4.6%

So its now £8.21 + 3% pension.

That's also added to the issue that the low £ right now (not brexit) and then the actual impact of Brexit to come will impact the availability of staff from abroad.

Locally its a mixture of majority local and a few EU workers but its quite obvious that in major cities in the SE it looks like the majority of staff are non uk.

Add some inflation to utilities and food and it's going to be quite nasty.  It has to happen as the addiction to low wages is not good, but it would also be good to have on the other end some falling housing costs.

 

 

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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1 hour ago, Orsino said:

I think one of the big furniture companies will go under. Bensons for Beds, Dreams, or maybe the likes of DFS. I can't imagine who goes to an out-of-town retail park to visit a lacklustre showroom to view a load of rubbish products and spend a large amount of money completely unnecessarily.

Good shout for DFS.  Ex-private equity and questionable buyouts of smaller rivals such as Sofology and Dwell.

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38 minutes ago, GeneCernan said:

Argos.

I would have said no to that but I looked at their accounts to March 2018 and they are a bloodbath. I do wonder if they will be subsidised by Sainsbury’s and just have space in other shops rather than their own high street shops.

They are often decent value versus Amazon especially if you can get your goods the same day.

Margins are probably razor thin I would guess.

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Carpetright look likely. Independents are cheaper and lots of people realising that their high mark-up items like underlay are cheaper online and the fitter doesn't mind if you supply it.

Dreams/Bensons should go as their products are awful but people often still want see a bed/mattress first and then once in they buy

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5 hours ago, Orsino said:

I think one of the big furniture companies will go under. Bensons for Beds, Dreams, or maybe the likes of DFS. I can't imagine who goes to an out-of-town retail park to visit a lacklustre showroom to view a load of rubbish products and spend a large amount of money completely unnecessarily.

The same people that absolutely must have a brand new telly at Christmas that absolutely must get bigger than the last one and absolutely must not only have a clear picture, or a super clear picture, but a super duper uber clear picture.

Oh and it must take up a whole wall.

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I'm going to pick 5:

1. Bensons/Harveys or Carpetright 
2. Interserve
3. Debenhams
4. Another restaurant chain (maybe one of the ones that did a CVA in 17/18)
5. Mothercare. 

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

 The same people that absolutely must have a brand new telly at Christmas that absolutely must get bigger than the last one and absolutely must not only have a clear picture, or a super clear picture, but a super duper uber clear picture.

 Oh and it must take up a whole wall.

I'm so glad not to be part of that group wasting there money like that, Bought our 32" telly new in 2010 for £250, It broke last year and I spent the grand total of £2.76 and 20 minutes replacing a blown capacitor. 

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38 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

The same people that absolutely must have a brand new telly at Christmas that absolutely must get bigger than the last one and absolutely must not only have a clear picture, or a super clear picture, but a super duper uber clear picture.

Oh and it must take up a whole wall.

Sounds like my brother. Apparently it is all about how black the black is in the picture. Honestly who gives a f**k. 

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Based upon the purely anecdotal indicator of “places I used to visit but now just buy online and/or elsewhere” I’d echo those who said Debenhams. 

Their stock is low quality, and their business model is based around huge expensive bricks and mortar stores even now well into the internet age. 

John Lewis might be expensive but at least their stuff is good and their website brilliant, so should survive. 

Plus there seem to be too many chain restaurants, and I have no idea why people visit those horrible noisy chain bars like All Bar One or Slug and Lettuce. Surely they must fade away?

 

 

 

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Debenhams is the obvious one. Badly managed, huge debt compared to profits and value, too many stores with no cash to revamp them, trying to compete in a shrinking,  competitive  marketplace. 

Does anybody think that car dealerships will struggle? I know that PPI payments had a major part in keeping them going during the last recession. 

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Based on visits to the store, and the falling out of love of plastic boxes, I call Poundstretcher.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/12/poundstretcher-posts-3rd-consecutive-fall-in-sales/

I also think at some point the BBC must also collapse, I really doubt that many people under 40 are interested in watching it or funding it any more. Once the boomers start getting their free licensees due to age,  I think its game over or government bailout. 

Edited by NoGo
forgot link

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Both. A republic is long overdue. Hoping Queenie falls apart once he's gone and the whole thing collapses soon after. We know Charles and the other dweebs haven't got the bottle or the charisma to keep it all going.

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