Council estate capitalist Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 6 hours ago, regprentice said: Commercial Loan covenants usually prohibit renting at lower than a set amount, usually a % related to the loan repayments. Breach the covenants and the bank will (well... may...) Reposses. This gets discussed here occasionally as a lot of BTL landlords may bought at the 'top' of the market and will find that, if house prices fall significantly and rents follow, then their bank will not allow them to reduce the rent they charge even if it makes them uncompetative. Typically the banks will let you 'top up' the difference with your own cash as a shortfall but you won't be able to remortgage on similar terms and you will be running at a loss, burning your own money for the foreseeable future. Most commercial leases are long term - 25 years. Listening to the radio this morning it sounds like there may be a short term need for commercial warehousing for credit stockpiling. So perhaps a small silver lining for landlords of suitable commercial property. Most commercial loans I've seen require the rent to cover 125% of the interest due. I imagine the only reason lenders on resi BTL's aren't as strict on who it's been rented to is because they can always use section 8 ground 2 to evict within a few months. + the contracts are only 6/12 months anyway. Things would change if tenancies were 3+ years and mortgagees couldn't evict. Those who got in at the top will find ability to remortgage so they end up on a punishing SVR just as interest rates are likely to be going up. 'Nice but dim' bank sells the loan book to a vulture fund at a discount. If you don't have equity they'll wait until you default, If you do have equity they will claim the LTV covenant has been breached and demand immediate repayment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timbuk3 Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/office-sidesteps-cva-as-dozens-of-store-closures-loom/ar-AAFzmZs?ocid=ientp Overpriced shoe sales fall flat - apparently footfall is down - ? On a lighter note - more empty high street units are available for rent, which will not please commercial investors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 43 minutes ago, Timbuk3 said: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/office-sidesteps-cva-as-dozens-of-store-closures-loom/ar-AAFzmZs?ocid=ientp Overpriced shoe sales fall flat - apparently footfall is down - ? On a lighter note - more empty high street units are available for rent, which will not please commercial investors. Quote: Sky News has learnt that the South African-owned company is drawing up plans to axe dozens of its 100 shops as their leases expire in the next few years More empty commercial real estate. Gonna be a bloodbath for commercial landlords soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Eddie Stobart has made an emergency stop. BBC News: Eddie Stobart chief leaves as shares suspended Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Council estate capitalist Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 5 hours ago, Will! said: Eddie Stobart has made an emergency stop. BBC News: Eddie Stobart chief leaves as shares suspended Woodford fund owns 20%+ of that. Short everything that guy has touched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 On 06/08/2019 at 08:42, burk said: That's what i don't get about the high street downturn we all know its driven by online sales so why won't / don't LL's come across more to the SME's as to my thinking they aren't gonna be getting any other tenants in there anytime soon? My own high street is starting to look empty, i just don't understand this mindset: So the LL asks the tenant for £50 up from £40 the tenant says no can we leave it at £40 or reduce to £35 the LL says no so the tenant leaves or goes bust so now there's no money & given the way the economy is wobbling makes even less sense. I get the feeling there's gonna be a lot of landlords sitting on a lot of vacant property both residential and commercial fairly soon. The landlord tends to be property funds pensions etc, and on the investment book you have a yield and thus a ‘value’ of each investment for the yield you can getting getup the of it. if you let it for £500 a month, for one month, then on your books you can say it’s worth X as in theory you could rent it out for such an amount. Having it empty is fine, voids are expected now and again, but renting it for less realises the capital loss, as the investment it not worth what you paid for the books. hence you get a situation where massive funds pay top money for property as they are screaming for any kind of decent yield, but then never drop rents, even if it kills the high-street. the economy and many funds are in a much worse state than they first seem, but accountancy tricks hide the real extent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burk Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 (edited) On 26/08/2019 at 20:45, jiltedjen said: The landlord tends to be property funds pensions etc, and on the investment book you have a yield and thus a ‘value’ of each investment for the yield you can getting getup the of it. if you let it for £500 a month, for one month, then on your books you can say it’s worth X as in theory you could rent it out for such an amount. Having it empty is fine, voids are expected now and again, but renting it for less realises the capital loss, as the investment it not worth what you paid for the books. hence you get a situation where massive funds pay top money for property as they are screaming for any kind of decent yield, but then never drop rents, even if it kills the high-street. the economy and many funds are in a much worse state than they first seem, but accountancy tricks hide the real extent. That's insane eh? The more i think about it the more i see the coming collapse as permanent, although i still can't get my head around the amount of boutique cake and bread shops where i live, they're like the cockroaches of the retail worId. I had no idea there was a market for £5-10 loaves of bread & pastries even in these times............ Edited August 28, 2019 by burk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 4 hours ago, burk said: That's insane eh? The more i think about it the more i see the coming collapse as permanent, although i still can't get my head around the amount of boutique cake and bread shops where i live, they're like the cockroaches of the retail worId. I had no idea there was a market for £5-10 loaves of bread & pastries even in these times............ 5 year's ago it was cupcake shops. Now they've all closed. Fads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 5 hours ago, burk said: I had no idea there was a market for £5-10 loaves of bread & pastries even in these times............ They're all on credit, would be my guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simvastatin Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 On 24/08/2019 at 00:50, Council estate capitalist said: Woodford fund owns 20%+ of that. Short everything that guy has touched. He is so unlucky, the best investment advice in the world is to do the opposite of what he does, so shorting any thing he buys is good way to get rich Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Council estate capitalist Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 On 28/08/2019 at 19:53, prozac said: He is so unlucky, the best investment advice in the world is to do the opposite of what he does, so shorting any thing he buys is good way to get rich I believe some hot money funds have shorted his holdings in anticipation that he'll be selling everything to pay off investors. He's also one of the biggest shareholders of Burford Capital. It all appears to just be picking high dividend stocks/holding story stocks too long. 16% of the fund is in house builders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Shoe Zone gets a kicking 2 interesting snippets in the article: Quote The company also revealed that its freehold property portfolio was worth £3.1m less than expected, and will write down the value of its 17 freehold properties to £5.3m. It blamed a "tough" property market for the decision. Quote The pressure on the retail property market has enabled Shoe Zone to achieve an average 23.5% fall in rents on renewal and average outstanding lease length of only two years There is a growing trend pressuring rents downwards. Once the big names have done this, then it's inevitable to become a standard business practice. There are plenty of companies (WH Smith) and commercial property funds overvalued (IMHO) due to an old property valuation. They must be sweating on how to get a more realistic valuation without wiping themselves out. It's now a case of a little pain up front or a lot of pain later on. Bring. It. On. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Amigo loans collapse 50% after the market rather perversely turns on them for not having enough subprime lending. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/29/amigo-shares-crash-warning-growth-will-grind-halt/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 1 hour ago, regprentice said: Amigo loans collapse 50% after the market rather perversely turns on them for not having enough subprime lending. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/29/amigo-shares-crash-warning-growth-will-grind-halt/ Can't understand why the quality 'friend' wouldn't lend to the subprime 'friend' directly at no interest....cut out the middle beneficiary.......higher chance of getting their money back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Council estate capitalist Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 58 minutes ago, winkie said: Can't understand why the quality 'friend' wouldn't lend to the subprime 'friend' directly at no interest....cut out the middle beneficiary.......higher chance of getting their money back. I think it's people's shyness about money. Taking a loan from Amigo with a guarantor is somehow morally above borrowing from the friend directly. Even though the risk is basically the same for the guarantor. I was looking on the ombudsman complaints about Amigo, What a load of idiots. almost none of the complaints upheld. Most were complaints that they asked the guarantor to pay "too quickly", complaints that Amigo didn't ask for proof of income/expenditure and believed their lies in the application, Or from people not understanding what the word "guarantor" actually meant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Council estate capitalist said: I think it's people's shyness about money. Taking a loan from Amigo with a guarantor is somehow morally above borrowing from the friend directly. Even though the risk is basically the same for the guarantor. I was looking on the ombudsman complaints about Amigo, What a load of idiots. almost none of the complaints upheld. Most were complaints that they asked the guarantor to pay "too quickly", complaints that Amigo didn't ask for proof of income/expenditure and believed their lies in the application, Or from people not understanding what the word "guarantor" actually meant. Do our amigo friends really think they can get away with charging high interest rates for lending money indirectly to quality borrowers......why we could all do that if that is your thing.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Micro Focus might need a hard reset. The Register: Brit software giant Micro Focus takes a bath after share price crashes 30%, sales tank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger1234 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/morrisons-jobs-store-close-shut-crawley-ince-windon-wigan-solihull-a9075396.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Dining is still going down: Quote Chiquito and Frankie & Benny’s owner to close more than 100 restaurants https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/03/chiquito-close-restaurant-group-wagamama A good one for people here: Quote The first-half losses came after a £115.7m writedown of the value of property assets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Can I nominate the Conservative Party? ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 2 hours ago, PeanutButter said: Can I nominate the Conservative Party? ? Yes. Im going for... The country. I kid not... I expect to see troops on the streets soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timbuk3 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Yes. Im going for... The country. I kid not... I expect to see troops on the streets soon. I'm with you on that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankief Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 (edited) I was looking for the thread about the death of the high street, hope i've got the right thread. Anyway, news in that Chester is different - they are to get another shopping/ leisure centre. See link. http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2019/09/04/vinci-gets-go-ahead-for-300m-chester-shopping-centre/ Preferred contractor Vinci will now sign a contract to build the council-funded scheme with view to starting work in January on the new leisure destination, in the heart of the city centre. Perhaps some council tax payers may be wondering why £300 million could not be invested somewhere else in the city? Any locals here with a view. Edited September 4, 2019 by frankief Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 20 hours ago, Freki said: Dining is still going down: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/03/chiquito-close-restaurant-group-wagamama A good one for people here: Given the number of properties they lease and will be handing back the keys on at suitable break points, that is a huge write down on the rest. Some tactical property devaluation to aid rates valuation claims? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear.getting.old Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 On 03/09/2019 at 15:54, TheCountOfNowhere said: Yes. Im going for... The country. I kid not... I expect to see troops on the streets soon. If Brexit is not delivered as voted for in the referendum, then there could well be a civil war. You don't give the British people a referendum, then fail to deliver the result, then expect everything to be alright. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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