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The Russian extraction costs for O&G are high and China apparently wants to pay less than cost price for the gas. Some of this is related to generous contract cost involving oligarchs. (As I witnessed a very long time ago on one early western involvement in Russian O+G and it has got far far worse since.) Russian oil extraction cost are at least double Saudi's and the oil isn't great quality wise needing more refining than most. China know they have a good negotiating position with Russia now and will be thanking the US and Europe.
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It looks like Lavrov (or some one else senior) is on the way to Washington at the moment and should arrive in about 2.5 hours time. Russian has apparently turned off the support taps to Syria when the invasion of Ukraine started so think could start to kick of again there in the near future. Putin whinging about the sanctions having little effect and wanting to normalise economic relations with the west yesterday suggests that they are starting to work and will end up having a big impact in due course. The Russian O&G sector is very reliant on the west and being cut of won't have much short term impact on extraction (sales of production is a bit different). Medium and Long term they will struggle. At least 1/3rd of Russia Steel exports based on recent year averages are already directly covered by sanctions and many of the others will be to as there is no easy way for payments to be made from countries yet to impose sanctions.
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A few small groups moving in an out will tie up a lot of Russians on the flanks or they take the hit on convoys. There will be plenty of small groups of thinly spread Russians to pick off with guerrilla action. I wasn't talking about large scale action on the flanks just guerrilla. There seems to be some success in targeting convoys in the last 48 hours.
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As have ourselves and the US previously over the last 7 years and earlier this year, the question is how quickly will the new equipment get to the Ukrainian western border and then onwards. A least half of it needs to be in Ukraine in the next 48 hours if not already before resupply becomes much harder.