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Everything posted by koala_bear

  1. They do "Furniturepack". The vans advertise HMO and BTL furniture on the side - a big give away! There are several other firms as well and there were even more when BTL investment was happening at a much higher pace. The development is on the former Wimbledon dog track carpark, which the developers are having problems selling because the prices are a little silly!
  2. And yet some are getting into or adding more BTL. While walking past an overpriced new build development of flats yesterday, a firm of specialist BTL furniture suppliers were busy unloading two vans. (SW London) Someone obviously not reading the Telegraph! (Or any sensible info source either)
  3. The Russians made a rod for their own back by being so secretive, if they had done the same as the other then far less of an issue.
  4. 21 days wasn't a guess but a very deliberate choice made early on: a) Previous non-covid 2 dose vaccine understanding points to a longer gap being better but b) For previous 2 dose vaccines the longer the gap between the jabs the less likely people are to come back for the second dose hence the gap is shortened c) 3 weeks vs 12 weeks delay clinical trial results by at least 9 weeks and everyone wanted vaccines in hurry and Pfizer also wanted to be early to market to get more orders. Hence most manufacturers going for 21 or 28 days as the shortest gap possible, nothing to do with losing effectiveness! Most manufacturers haven't looked at longer gaps etc. in much detail, Oxford/AZ is noticeably different. They did some early work looking at gaps up to 12 weeks and took regular blood samples and PCR swabs from that group, the blood samples showed increasing covid-specific antibody levels to 12 weeks when they got the second jab, this is what JCVI were looking at when they made the shift to 12 weeks. Oxford/AZ then did a much larger follow up study on the 12 week gap which has been released in pre-print form this week confirming that 12 week gap is more effective than 3/4/6 weeks gaps tested for that jab. Synopsis from the press release accompanying the paper:
  5. Yep, I've been through it. I can't image why they decided to pick a quarrel with AZ on this one as they will be made to look foolish. The EU seem to believe they can cherry pick half sentences in isolation, one lone German MEP still trying to argue but the rest have gone very quiet. One French MEP arguing that best endeavors should invalidate other contracts - obviously not having read it properly either. The Commission - AZ argument is getting comparatively little press coverage on the continent, the press there aren't believing the EU.
  6. Yep it was based in Canary Wharf, they tired to sue to get out of their expensive office space lease with another ~15 years to run and lost in the courts at every step.
  7. Three main issues: a) The trials didn't have that many older people in them so we should be expecting it to be less effective in older age groups in the real world when we are just vaccinating older people. b) the curse of looking at data very early on, it will include lots of people who had already caught it pre first jab or caught it re day 12 when the differences started to be seen between vaccinated and control groups. The immune response continues to improve after this. It will be much more interesting to look at this in month time with better data c) using different definition of effectiveness. We should in reality be using several different metrics (e.g. reduction in deaths, ICU admission, hospital admission, positive test with symptoms, asymptomatic with positive test).
  8. The vaccine trials included very few older people (vaccine effectiveness in general is lower in older people), hence some of this is measuring the lower effectiveness in older people that the trials didn't. Israel has also been measuring vaccine effectiveness by several different metrics from death to asymptomatic cases (similiar to Oxford /AZ trial methodology), the later is less flattering than the Pfizer trial definition. (Also see Chinese vaccine in UAE with flattering effectiveness definition with effectiveness just over 80% but 52% in Brazil where they when for the Oxford/AZ effectiveness measure. Many of those vaccinated were going out and not following guidance from day 1 (as case rates were rocketing generally) and with day 12 as being a useful marker for start of some protection were getting infected
  9. The key metric is what is going on in ICU not just hospitals overall. ICU admissions from latest stats: Mean age 60.0 (I.e. just over 20 years younger than deaths) Median 61 25% are over 70 25% are under 52 i.e. it will take quite while to get covid ICU admissions under control via vaccination...
  10. Indeed, plenty of people near me being much more careful than they had been before New Year. Cautious optimism - The average age of ICU admissions is ~ 20 years younger than those dying and BoJo has thrown everything at the older age group to cut deaths first. The NHS will be in trouble for a while yet as the mean age of covid ICU admissions is 60 and the median 62, more than half of whom are pretty health and it will be a long time till most groups who might end up in ICU are vaccinated. Boris's top 4 groups only cover about 25% of ICU admissions but 85-90% of deaths. About half a week after the first jabs for the top 4 groups should complete is the end of 12 weeks since the first jab at which point they need to turn to lots of second jabs...
  11. They haven't published since because of incomplete data
  12. We set a new record for case numbers today - over a bank holiday weekend so expect that some time soon. The last hospital data was for the 22nd and total covid patient numbers were close to record then. The daily admission rate was noticeably higher in April.
  13. Translating the NERVTAG report to plain English: (circa 3 fold) reduction in the typical average viral load needed to cause an infection with the new variant, hence the lower levels of reproduction seen in children can now easily be above the threshold with the new variant compared to below with the old variant. This also means the typical minimum size of particle or number of particles (or both) needed for virus transmission is smaller with the new variant.
  14. The UK does about 45% of virus genomics globally so other countries are much less likely to have found it as they don't have the ability to do it in sufficient quantities. The Germans haven't found it (yet) but reckon they have it but just can't do enough testing. They are assuming it is already there especially as it is also in Denmark. Luckily there is a potential way to identify it without genomics, one of the there is a potential easy way to find it, the Covid PCR testing looks for presence of multiple genes with each manufacturer looking at different gene. The mutation means that one of the genes the thermo-fisher test look for isn't present so the test returns negative results for that gene. (other mutations also have that gene missing so not full proof but an easy and quick way to estimate prevalence.)
  15. Minutes of the Friday morning NREVTAG meeting: https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452 Not good news...
  16. On the subject of kids and transmission from the guardian:
  17. That isn't what they mean by 70%... Whitty's commentary on the R change was much more interesting than BoJo's and what the +0.4 means. Whitty's point was that with the older variants and restrictions if R = 1 , with the new variant and the same restrictions the R increases to 1.4. I.e. existing Tier structure and restrictions are effectively shredded. The +0.4 is with current R not R0, hence the increase in R0 for the new variant is probably looking large. The latest estimates for what R0 is are far larger than the original ~2.75 ones earlier in the year. IC's latest estimate for the UK in February - March 2020 before the government acted is 3.9. The latest US estimate from Los Alamos statistical analysis of US and European data is a median of 5.8 (95% CI 3.7-6.1 very asymmetric distribution about the median which suggest higher k). Realistically k for the new variant is probably still higher than flu but R is still way higher. This also points to the significant transmission via smaller airbourne particles as carriers like measles and chicken pox than flu with droplets.
  18. To me that change in R and transmission rate don't quite compute so I'd expect a lower k value as well. Not much public data yet...
  19. R The difference in value R of the new variant is interesting: 1.4 with current restrictions vs 1.0 for the old variant. Transmission rate 70% higher This is not good.
  20. The high case rates are in the under 18s and there is plenty of spare ICU capacity hence not putting an extra 5 million in Tier 3 might look attractive.
  21. Or the the level of CRM systems to automate stuff correctly and keep the staffing levels down. They get lulled in to a false sense of security with low levels of customer interaction with all new customer base as they acquire customers but it all starts to go up massively after 18 months. They end up needing ~3x as many staff as they budgeted for or get their knuckles wrapped by the regulator. The GB (not NI) licencing system is also largely at fault (they are trying to change), if you tick all the boxes they have to give you a licence. In RoI, NI and Netherlands and Scandinavia they learned from the UK experience and can deny licenses if they think the applicants are muppets.
  22. The problem is that the majority of those who end up in hospital tend to have other health issues and there is next to no data on vaccine effectiveness in those groups. Fingers crossed we see 95% in those with pre-existing conditions but it would be wise to expect it to be a bit less. For other 2 dose vaccinations the current NHS level of people receiving the second jab is only 90%. Translating trial result to real life won't be easy.
  23. Cases would probably go up slightly as we are now properly in winter. I'd probably expect cases to have started to rise 4 days after the change with from 6th day being more noticeable. Plenty of non compliance going on in places (e.g. Medway, NE London) so local case numbers in places could be driving the slight national rise seen?
  24. a ) I can't see the death rate reducing enough with a return to near normal type activity. b ) I can see it being less effective in those with pre existing conditions which increases the need for more wide spread vaccination.
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