House prices to plunge 35 per cent in no-deal Brexit

[Lord D'arcy Pew]

On 14/09/2018 at 10:33, ftb_fml said:

The bottom line, IMO.

 

It seems to me that our economy has been circling the drain for decades; the last 10 years illustrating a period of ever-more desperate props to stimulate growth, along with all the nasty side effects this cheap debt has created (asset bubbles and wealth inequality).

We're long overdue a natural correction and Brexit will both serve as a catalyst that accelerates this process as well as the excuse the establishment can use to simultaneously wash their hands of the whole disgraceful situation and blame the years of misery to come on the voting public.

It appears that the spectre of Brexit has already had a profound and measurable effect on our economy; first it's knocked a good 20% off the strength of our currency versus the Euro, which continues to drive up real-world inflation. Secondly it could be argued that it's singularly responsible for the flat-lining / decline in house prices in the three most expensive cities in the UK (London, Oxford, Cambridge) - curiously, according to Hometrack, the distinct upward price trend in these three areas came to a distinct halt in June 2016. Certainly no bad thing, but arguably a measure of its effect on sentiment.

I think we're in for another, possibly worse sentiment-driven hit when we actually leave; obviously worse in the event of a "no deal" situation. I was fuzzy-headed thanks to lies on both sides and found it hard to make a rational decision at the time of voting. However, it's now becoming patently more obvious to me that this whole shitshow has nothing but negative connotations for the country; it'll either be bad or terrible depending on how abysmally the bunch of idiots negotiating on our behalf handle it.

What good is possibly going to come of this? Our economy is massively service-centric and it's increasingly unsustainable model of operation relies on both cheap imported labour and disposable income to survive; both of which will be / is already being cut substantially by our weak currency.

We import a lot and export little. We've snubbed our nearest trading partners and are desperately clutching at straws trying to court favour with inferior alternatives so much further away. We're looking at shipping food greater distances around the globe from countries with inferior standards of food quality and animal welfare. We're aiming to buy products of lower quality to avoid dealing with Europe - presumably because they'll be far more expensive due again to the weak currency and less favourable trading conditions.

Come March the decline will really gather pace. Maybe another 20% hit to the currency when the horrors of the "deal" (or indeed not) are released. Far greater consumer price inflation and asset deflation. A further drop in consumer spending, falling wages and rising unemployment. This will be the backdrop for the house price correction; sadly not some rosy fall while everything else continues to go swimmingly.

While it can only benefit us through further driving negative sentiment, Carney's announcement is just setting the scene for the inevitable blaming of Brexit for the coming correction that results mainly from such irresponsible, greedy and unsustainable management of our economy over the past 30+ years.

I believe there will be a significant correction, but will this still be a cause for celebration within the context of a defunct economy and decaying society?

Ultimately the 2008 credit crunch was the result of lending money to people that were never in a position to repay the loans.

The next crisis will again be triggered by the realisation that they have done it all over again, this time with bells on. PCP dealers pushing angel dust car loans, is pinging my radar.

What these financial geniuses plonkers lack in common sense they make up for in stupidity.

They still believe the tax payer will bend over and take another one for the team. Fraudulent gains washed clean with new laundered tax payers graft.

 

[simvastatin]

6 hours ago, 2rocketman said:

Is that 50% from today or including the drops so far? If you go on Zoopla now, type in any area then search by (most reduced) the drops are anywhere from 10% + already. Bearing in mind there are still many who refuse to believe the market is dropping at all, I’m thinking Carney might have called it perfect. 30-35% from here seems logical. 

So you are saying Carney is right and i am wrong

do you look like this

[oatbake]

2 hours ago, Lord D'arcy Pew said:

They still believe the tax payer will bend over and take another one for the team. Fraudulent gains washed clean with new laundered tax payers graft.

 

You can hardly blame them for thinking this. That's exactly what happened last time...

[2rocketman]

1 hour ago, prozac said:

So you are saying Carney is right and i am wrong

do you look like this

Haha...I guess I’m saying Carney’s prediction is in line with my own! 

[Ash4781]

At last some positive news!

[darkmarket]

4 hours ago, Lord D'arcy Pew said:

Ultimately the 2008 credit crunch was the result of lending money to people that were never in a position to repay the loans.

The next crisis will again be triggered by the realisation that they have done it all over again, this time with bells on.

Speaking of liar loans, that Mumsnet thread fulfilled its potential today:

Quote

I’m a self employed freelancer, and myself and my partner ( who is in full time employment ) received a DIP from nationwide. I have 2 years SA302s and my income went up by £6000 in the second year, nationwide seemed to use my second year (the higher amount) as their amount to figure out affordability. We’ve applied for the full mortgage now and I’m very worried we won’t get it as it seems too good to be true. We’ve gone right to our max, (literally borrowing £50 less than the max on our DIP) and we only have a 10% deposit, but it’s like pretty much our forever home

That comes just after this completely legitimate mortgage application was rejected in another thread:

Quote

I have asked and they basically told me to get another agreement in principle.... no point as i know it will come back aroubd 40 grand. 137 grand less than my original one. 

I think were going to have to pull out of sale and purchase, let everyone down

But despite a nagging conscience:

Quote

Like i say were going to have another look today i am also going to ring natwest and see if i get a more sympathetic advisor. Part of me thinks ****** it just lie and say we wont have childcare costs in 6 months how will they know but as ive said before i really hate lying and what happens if they do find out - its fraud really.

 A little magic:

Quote

flamingofridays Sun 02-Sep-18 20:48:58

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

And everything is fine:

Quote

Ive removed the comment but basically yeah were going ahead with it and hoping for the best.... beautician I'll pm u x

Twinkydink just double-checks:

Quote

twinkydink Wed 05-Sep-18 12:07:18

@flamingo have you had any luck with your step dad finding a new mortgage?

And everything's ends well:

Quote

flamingofridays Thu 13-Sep-18 10:46:28

we have our mortgage offer!!! super quick. 

Except for the taxpayer, perhaps.

[Dyson Fury]

Interesting polarisation in the media about this.

Tomorrow's Matt cartoon in the Telegraph (a paper previously well known for ramping property prices):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/31/matt-cartoons-september-2018/

Subscription required to see it, but it shows a gloomy-looking couple in front of an estate agent's window saying : "If I'd known house prices will fall 35% after Brexit, I'd have voted for it".

On the other hand, in the total utter cr#p fake news "Huffington Post":

"Why A House Price Plunge Could Be Bad News For Millennials"

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/house-price-drop_uk_5b9bf607e4b046313fbadbd4

[Si1]

17 minutes ago, Dyson Fury said:

.

On the other hand, in the total utter cr#p fake news "Huffington Post":

"Why A House Price Plunge Could Be Bad News For Millennials"

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/house-price-drop_uk_5b9bf607e4b046313fbadbd4

The liberal elite press are not happy - the Economist also had a 'be careful what you wish for' article. Moneyed liberals with bomad and a London mortgage.

The basic fact is that in the event of a major property market correction then you're better off not having just bought a house. The associated economic weakness will hit everyone so it's neither here nor there.

[Fromage Frais]

23 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The liberal elite press are not happy - the Economist also had a 'be careful what you wish for' article. Moneyed liberals with bomad and a London mortgage.

The basic fact is that in the event of a major property market correction then you're better off not having just bought a house. The associated economic weakness will hit everyone so it's neither here nor there.

I have just made an offer on a house 10% less than asking which hand on heart is a very good offer (last sold  house a month ago same as my offer). 

The vendor has either me (no chain) or other offers with properties to sell......thankfully they have rejected my offer.

For the first time I am delighted with Mr Carney my wife has eased the pressure and now (as of 14 days) the house has yet to sell and if they come back to me I can say sorry old chap but did you not see the news?  The actual governor of the bank of England has said that if there is a not deal brexit in circa six months time prices are going to be plunging 35%!  (PS I know he did not say 35% fall but thats whats doing the rounds)

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit-specials

Its 8/15 that there is no Brexit deal.

So in essence (obviously its not going to be exactly as predicted) there is a more than 50/50 chance that 400,000£ house is suffer a circa £140,000 loss.

Who is now going to buy before the deadline?  Who is stupid enough to say no to decent offer than can be done before this date?

 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2018 by Fromage Frais

[Si1]

54 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

I have just made an offer on a house 10% less than asking which hand on heart is a very good offer (last sold  house a month ago same as my offer). 

The vendor has either me (no chain) or other offers with properties to sell......thankfully they have rejected my offer.

For the first time I am delighted with Mr Carney my wife has eased the pressure and now (as of 14 days) the house has yet to sell and if they come back to me I can say sorry old chap but did you not see the news?  The actual governor of the bank of England has said that if there is a not deal brexit in circa six months time prices are going to be plunging 35%!  (PS I know he did not say 35% fall but thats whats doing the rounds)

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit-specials

Its 8/15 that there is no Brexit deal.

So in essence (obviously its not going to be exactly as predicted) there is a more than 50/50 chance that 400,000£ house is suffer a circa £140,000 loss.

Who is now going to buy before the deadline?  Who is stupid enough to say no to decent offer than can be done before this date?

 

 

 

Don't forget market timing is very very hard. Hence Greg's position.. But yes.

[jimmy2x3]

a simple question to ask all these millenial remainers. 

 

" carney says house prices will drop 35% because of brexit"  " so are 35% cheaper houses a good thing for you or not"

 

answers on a postcard ya dumb F45ks

[Freki]

because brexit was the only way to pull back prices to sensible levels? talk about binary views

[GregBowman]

On 14/09/2018 at 16:12, Bruce Banner said:

You may be right, but I doubt it, it's not what has happened in the past. Desirable houses may drop less than undesirable ones, but drop they will, no amount of wishful thinking will change that.

I bought a little house last year, fully expecting the price to drop. Because of what it is and where it is I would expect it to drop less than average, but drop it will, perhaps -25% if the average fall is -35%, or perhaps not, who knows.

I expect my house to drop and am of the same view not sure though if the average is 35% then maths say decent houses will drop 10-20%

[GregBowman]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Don't forget market timing is very very hard. Hence Greg's position.. But yes.

It’s a long term game so timing nearly impossible but since I STR’d June 2017 and bought a house in May this year that was £450k less you could say I put my money where my mouth is - in hindsight it was definitely the top 

[Bruce Banner]

4 hours ago, GregBowman said:

I expect my house to drop and am of the same view not sure though if the average is 35% then maths say decent houses will drop 10-20%

I think it also depends on how much a particular house has gone up in recent years. My house, for instance, has an estimated current value of less than 20% more than it sold for, new, in 2004, but at the end of the day it's worth what someone will pay for it.

[Si1]

10 hours ago, GregBowman said:

It’s a long term game so timing nearly impossible but since I STR’d June 2017 and bought a house in May this year that was £450k less you could say I put my money where my mouth is - in hindsight it was definitely the top 

I'd rather have a good rental house over a cr#p owned house.

And likewise rather a good owned house over a rubbish rental.

 

[GregBowman]

3 hours ago, Si1 said:

I'd rather have a good rental house over a cr#p owned house.

And likewise rather a good owned house over a rubbish rental.

 

Totally agree 

[mrtickle]

On 14/09/2018 at 12:56, eric pebble said:

Love this one....?

Bluelady Fri 14-Sep-18 12:42:50

We're currently on the market and it's completely dead. Our agent says he's never seen a worse market. There's no confidence and people just aren't moving. There are no FTBs to fuel it. We're resigned to staying put for the foreseeable future.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/3365146-Mark-Carney-Brexit-house-price-warning?pg=4

 

"Resigned to staying put" BECAUSE CORRECTING THEIR ASKING PRICE ISN'T SOMETHING THEY CAN CONCEIVE OF,

[Si1]

1 hour ago, mrtickle said:

"Resigned to staying put" BECAUSE CORRECTING THEIR ASKING PRICE ISN'T SOMETHING THEY CAN CONCEIVE OF,

"There are no FTBs to fuel it"

Seriously, what on earth does that mean?

[winkie]

There won't be a 'no deal Brexit'........but that doesn't mean the drops won't happen.

[mrtickle]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

"There are no FTBs to fuel it"

Seriously, what on earth does that mean?

To fuel the ponzi. They recognise that that they need more "Greater Fool" FTBs coming in at the bottom of the Housing Pyramid, willing to overpay them for their house. They just can't mentally phrase it in those correct terms.

 

[winkie]

1 hour ago, mrtickle said:

To fuel the ponzi. They recognise that that they need more "Greater Fool" FTBs coming in at the bottom of the Housing Pyramid,  willing and able to overpay them for their house. They just can't mentally phrase it in those correct terms.

 

Corrected for you.

[mrtickle]

18 minutes ago, winkie said:

Corrected for you.

You did  but left in my "that that" error

 

[darkmarket]

On 15/09/2018 at 08:42, winkie said:

people will have to offset inflation of consumables, energy, food and essentials by creating their own deflation, by cutting back or dipping into savings to cover, overtime, part-time work....wages stagnant in real terms.... companies should attempt to negotiate long supply and short term sales and export contracts...reduce inventory and shorten borrowings prior to possible rate rises and inevitable recession

I don't like to suggest what others should do, but low debt, low outgoings and a six-month emergency fund certainly seems like a reasonable approach.

Carney has really damaged sentiment here, all that work talking up the Pound and then this.

[longgone]

9 hours ago, Si1 said:

"There are no FTBs to fuel it"

Seriously, what on earth does that mean?

Do you remember those Christmas tree fairy lights when one bulb was blown the whole lot went ?