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House prices to plunge 35 per cent in no-deal Brexit


Tempus

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HOLA441
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HOLA442
17 hours ago, Tempus said:

So says Mark Carney.Ā 

"House prices would fall by 35 per cent over three years following a chaotic no-deal Brexit, according to a briefing given by Mark Carney to the cabinet today." https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/house-prices-would-plummet-in-no-deal-brexit-says-carney-csgr9j0hj

Do we believe him on that one?Ā ?

Ā 

Ā 

Did you believe this guy (50% drops)?

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Brexit is & will be temporary aberration to the market... because of uncertainty etc.. ie: a blip.

As much as you may dislike them.... the folk in parliament will sort things out.

Besides.. nobody should be cheering for a big dive.

You folk will be outbid by cash-rich folk, funds & institutions and they will gobble up massive swathes of property in the UK.

Carney is just grandstanding like the guy above. Further, these figures are for modelling exercises at the BOE.

Ā 

Ā 

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HOLA444
4 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

Apart from the 35% drop in house prices, the model also assumed a base rate increase to 4%. I'm not sure if it then incorporated the impact of that increase into further house price decreases, seems not.

I can't see how base rate would ever reach 4% any time soon.....if it did house price values would be the last of anyone's concerns.;)

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HOLA447
2 minutes ago, winkie said:

I can't see how base rate would ever reach 4% any time soon.....if it did house price values would be the last of anyone's concerns.;)

You might underestimate how badly the Pound could do in the event of a no-deal exit. Not that one's to be expected, but a weak Pound over the next few years is probably a safe bet, and letting consumers soak it all up can't last forever.

In some senses, Carney and Erdogan are really quite similar.

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HOLA448
Just now, darkmarket said:

You might underestimate how badly the Pound could do in the event of a no-deal exit. Not that one's to be expected, but a weak Pound over the next few years is probably a safe bet, and letting consumers soak it all up can't last forever.

In some senses, Carney and Erdogan are really quite similar.

... interest rates can't really rise... for many reasons. Energy is one of the biggies.

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HOLA449
2 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Love this one....?

Bluelady Fri 14-Sep-18 12:42:50

We're currently on the market and it's completely dead. Our agent says he's never seen a worse market. There's no confidence and people just aren't moving. There are no FTBs to fuel it. We're resigned to staying put for the foreseeable future.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/3365146-Mark-Carney-Brexit-house-price-warning?pg=4

Ā 

Ā 

Edited by eric pebble
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HOLA4412
5 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

You might underestimate how badly the Pound could do in the event of a no-deal exit. Not that one's to be expected, but a weak Pound over the next few years is probably a safe bet, and letting consumers soak it all up can't last forever.

In some senses, Carney and Erdogan are really quite similar.

The pound is already weak.....that is why we will have to import from cheaper places (not always better), that is why we will have to start exporting more or as much as we have been importing......that is why the general cost of living has been rising and could well rise further......we will be not be spending as much as we once did on now growing in price imported goods.....that is why we will have to start, learn, or be forced to do things differently.;)

Ā 

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39 minutes ago, eric pebble said:

Love this one....?

Bluelady Fri 14-Sep-18 12:42:50

We're currently on the market and it's completely dead. Our agent says he's never seen a worse market. There's no confidence and people just aren't moving. There are no FTBs to fuel it. We're resigned to staying put for the foreseeable future.

She's probably right about the general economy in this case....but once again people's response to "why isn't my house selling?" is always "X Y Z reason outside my control" and never "my asking price is too high"

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HOLA4415
4 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

BBC News are featuring the 35% crash prediction again this morning.

They just read out a few viewers texts, all saidĀ it would be a good thing.

Not that it really means anything as they can pick and chose what they read out but, on the surface, it indicates a change in sentiment.

Ā 

I set off at 5.30am this morning mostly listening to bbc 5 live on the radio.. definate change in tone by the time it got to 07.30 am covering the house prices will drop 35% story where they suddenly over emphasised that it was a very outside chance that this could happen and the had an estate agent calming the listeners down... Carney is a master at this, he tries to convince two groups with to differing scenarios, he will give a "grave warning" that prices could fall while at the same time trying to reassure another group not to worry, he is the classic every thing to every personĀ 

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HOLA4416
1 hour ago, cashinmattress said:

You folk will be outbid by cash-rich folk, funds & institutions and they will gobble up massive swathes of property in the UK.

Carney is just grandstanding like the guy above. Further, these figures are for modelling exercises at the BOE.

Because the pastĀ will have been a proof that you can't lose with b&m?Ā 

Why would cash rich people/institutionsĀ gobble more after a crash than now?Ā 

Cash rich doesn't exist, people are equity/asset rich. When you reach the 100k of financial worth outside of your main home, you are at risk de facto of asset prices correction. So those "cash rich" people will take a beating when the everything bubble collapse. It will allow income earners to beat wealth rich when it comes to acquiring new assets.

Edited by Freki
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HOLA4417
3 minutes ago, Freki said:

Ā 

Cash rich doesn't exists, people are equity rich. When you reach the 100k of financial worth outside of your main home, you are at risk de facto of asset prices correction. So those "cash rich" people will take a beating when the everything bubble collapse. It will allow income earners to beat wealth rich when it comes to acquiring new assets.

+1, if they are even that equity rich in the first place. My friend ā€˜ownsā€™ a Ā£500k house on the face of it, well, about Ā£100k of it as the rest is debt.

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21 minutes ago, Freki said:

Because the pastĀ will have been a proof that you can't lose with b&m?Ā 

Why would cash rich people/institutionsĀ gobble more after a crash than now?Ā 

Cash rich doesn't exist, people are equity/asset rich. When you reach the 100k of financial worth outside of your main home, you are at risk de facto of asset prices correction. So those "cash rich" people will take a beating when the everything bubble collapse. It will allow income earners to beat wealth rich when it comes to acquiring new assets.

That is how the younger generations with rising incomes should be able to overtake the older asset rich but falling income/cash poor with the rising costs of extra services/help required and costs the of long-term heath care.....life is full of its ups and downs.;)

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6 hours ago, winkie said:

I can't see how base rate would ever reach 4% any time soon.....if it did house price values would be the last of anyone's concerns.;)

Ā 

6 hours ago, darkmarket said:

You might underestimate how badly the Pound could do in the event of a no-deal exit. Not that one's to be expected, but a weak Pound over the next few years is probably a safe bet, and letting consumers soak it all up can't last forever.

In some senses, Carney and Erdogan are really quite similar.

Ā 

6 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

... interest rates can't really rise... for many reasons. Energy is one of the biggies.

Interestingly the Independent are running with this headline:

Quote

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has suggested that interest rates may need to rise, rather than fall, in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

..and further:

Quote

The governor had previously seemed to suggest that a no-deal Brexit could result in a rate cut to support the economy by making borrowing cheaper, as occurred after the Brexit referendum in 2016.

But according to reports of a briefing that Mr Carney gave to the cabinet on Thursday, he fears that such a rupture with the EU could represent a severe ā€œcontraction of supplyā€ capacity in the UK economy. This could meanĀ that inflation would be in danger of getting out of hand without early rate rises, particularly if sterling plummeted again, pushing up domestic import prices.

So, is the perpetual slasher of IR's just talking up a policy of rate rises that he never plans to take (as he has many times in the past) or is he finally acknowledging / softening us up for the choice having to be made between perpetuating the housing bubble / maintaining ridiculous prices or reigning in rampant inflation?

I don't think significant rate rises are at all out of the question, given the vulnerability of our currency, weak export market, reliance on imports and the general global backdrop of rate rises - in the US especially.

Ā 

6 hours ago, eric pebble said:

Love this one....?

Bluelady Fri 14-Sep-18 12:42:50

We're currently on the market and it's completely dead. Our agent says he's never seen a worse market. There's no confidence and people just aren't moving. There are no FTBs to fuel it. We're resigned to staying put for the foreseeable future.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/3365146-Mark-Carney-Brexit-house-price-warning?pg=4

Ā 

Ā 

Excellent stuff :D
Ā 

6 hours ago, winkie said:

The pound is already weak.....that is why we will have to import from cheaper places (not always better), that is why we will have to start exporting more or as much as we have been importing......that is why the general cost of living has been rising and could well rise further......we will be not be spending as much as we once did on now growing in price imported goods.....that is why we will have to start, learn, or be forced to do things differently.;)

Ā 

Indeed.. the problem is of course that our increasingly consumptive and disposible economy has come to rely on cheap imported goods. In order to make domestically produced goods viable we're going to have to accept a price hike and probably wage cuts.

Either that or we'll have to put up with importing cheaper, more inferior products, again probably at elevated cost.

Edited by ftb_fml
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HOLA4420

Sentiment is getting trashed now. Yes the financials and all the other variables are important BUT the market has turned end of. The crash is on. It would take something like HTB on all propertyĀ now to boost it. Canā€™t see that happening. It would not createĀ any new council tax income? Would not create jobs? No homes would have guarantees? It would not line the pockets of party donors? orĀ house builders? tamp duty contribution? Done that not going to help. Interest rate lowered? 0.25% not going to change a thing?

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7 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

Ā 

Indeed.. the problem is of course that our increasingly consumptive and disposible economy has come to rely on cheap imported goods. In order to make domestically produced goods viable we're going to have to accept a price hike and probably wage cuts.

Either that or we'll have to put up with importing cheaper, more inferior products, again probably at elevated cost.

How will that work?.......people will not accept wage cuts,Ā  we will need to make more and grow more ourselves to use and to export because a large proportion of our population will may not afford goods of quality made locally......they will only be able to buy the cheap quite probably inferior imports made and grown the other side of the world ( I thought we were trying to reduce air miles carbon emissions, save the planet) .......the wealthy will be able to pick and choose the best of all worlds......perhaps they are only wealthy because they pay too little?.....pricing out their own hard workers, looking to other places of growing wealth to sell to where consumption and waste is growing.;)

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HOLA4425
1 hour ago, Freki said:

Why would cash rich people/institutionsĀ gobble more after a crash than now?Ā 

I don't think it's obvious they will, but in part it depends on the opportunity. Consider the Wilsons' attempt to sell 900 houses in Ashford. Maybe some groups have looked into it, but decided it's too risky, or at least it's not worth it at the current asking price. But what if they are repossessed and the bank(s) offer a much better deal? If rich people and institutionsĀ aren't prepared to buy hundreds at houses in Ashford at 200k each, maybe they would be at 80k or 50k.

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