Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[spyguy]

21 minutes ago, shlomo said:

Could be another reason, if the reason is not just money, if the pretty EE girls are looking for a middle class husband they are more likely to meet one in Costa than Spoons 

I think its the combination of  hard working and being able to communicate clearly to both customers and coworkers in a noisy environment.

Lidl, where theres limited to no communication  between till and customer and the range and processes are stripped to bare minimum *do* employ EUers.

Ive never come across many EUers in Waitrose either.

 

 

[shlomo]

2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

I think its the combination of  hard working and being able to communicate clearly to both customers and coworkers in a noisy environment.

Lidl, where theres limited to no communication  between till and customer and the range and processes are stripped to bare minimum *do* employ EUers.

Ive never come across many EUers in Waitrose either.

 

 

A core group of EE women came here to change their lives, and find that white knight on a charging steed, if you were a woman would you aim for a middle class guy or a working class guy, the UK has not been poor in living memory 

Spyguy, you would make a good catch for an EE women, university educated, good job in IT, family values, own house, does not hit women, or a working class guy on £400 pw who drinks and smokes and lives in a council flat 

[spyguy]

11 minutes ago, shlomo said:

A core group of EE women came here to change their lives, and find that white knight on a charging steed, if you were a woman would you aim for a middle class guy or a working class guy, the UK has not been poor in living memory 

Spyguy, you would make a good catch for an EE women, university educated, good job in IT, family values, own house, does not hit women, or a working class guy on £400 pw who drinks and smokes and lives in a council flat 

I dont work in IT.

IT is help desk and putting cables in and putting more ink in the printer.

 

[shlomo]

19 minutes ago, spyguy said:

I dont work in IT.

IT is help desk and putting cables in and putting more ink in the printer.

 

You seem to take a couple of sentences to heart, the hypothesis still stands, you would make a good catch rather than a working class bod with no savings or assets who spends all his money on beer and football   

[dugsbody]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

No.

FOM has set back  Eastern European  countries by 0 odd years.

The young and educated leavign has allowed the likes of Orban and PiS  to be elected.

FOM has also accelerated  the corruption of the Balkans even worse.

 

 

B.S

The people of the EU nations have no desire to remove FOM. This is just brexiters projecting their own desires, yet again. We've heard it all before, collapse of the EU, etc.

Bookmarked. Revisit yearly.

Edited June 3, 2021 by dugsbody

[spyguy]

24 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

B.S

The people of the EU nations have no desire to remove FOM. This is just brexiters projecting their own desires, yet again. We've heard it all before, collapse of the EU, etc.

Bookmarked. Revisit yearly.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46371207

Romania's Finance Minister Eugen Teodorovici has come under fire for apparently suggesting that the right to movement in the EU should be limited.

Many young skilled Romanians emigrate for better employment prospects, resulting in a falling population.

Mr Teodorovici suggested that Romanians be issued with a single five-year work permit, after which they would have to leave - and possibly return home

[spyguy]

https://biepag.eu/corruption-in-the-balkans-and-eu-membership/

EU members. The cases of Romania and Bulgaria are interesting because of their EU membership and regular information published by the media, reporting corruption at different levels of the administration and political spheres. Considering Romania, the cost of corruption could represent more than 15% GDP. According to Eurobarometer, 68% of the Romanian citizens indicate that they are affected by corrupted practices on a regular basis, in their daily life. This represents the highest level in the EU. In fact, Romanian EU membership was delayed because of poor governance, including corruption. When the country joined the EU in 2007, together with Bulgaria, it was assumed that it would strengthen the rule of law, the anti-corruption legal framework and judicial independence – little was done indeed. In Bulgaria, pervasive corruption creates an atmosphere of impunity, it even weakens property rights and deters investors. In other words, poor practices seem to be self-reinforcing and allow the corrupted elites – the judicial system, the police, public services, the land administration, taxation bodies, customs, public procurements agencies – to capture a significant share of incomes and wealth. Here also, EU membership does not represent a strong anchor in terms of good governance. In that context, it is worth reporting conditions in neighboring Greece, where corruption is slowing down or impeding the recovery process and the fight against unemployment and poverty. Thus, corruption and bureaucratic inefficiency amount to a tax on all firms that operate in Greece’s formal sector. The tax is especially onerous for start-ups and foreign firms that would like to invest there.

[spyguy]

https://balkaninsight.com/2021/01/28/corruption-perceptions-worsening-in-balkans-central-europe-transparency-says/

With a few exceptions, the latest Corruption Perceptions Index for 2020 showed that most countries in Southeast and Central Europe either made no progress – or went backwards – in terms of perceived levels of public corruption.

[dugsbody]

2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46371207

Romania's Finance Minister Eugen Teodorovici has come under fire for apparently suggesting that the right to movement in the EU should be limited.

Many young skilled Romanians emigrate for better employment prospects, resulting in a falling population.

Mr Teodorovici suggested that Romanians be issued with a single five-year work permit, after which they would have to leave - and possibly return home

EU nations citizens have had the right to live and work in other countries for 50+ years. They've grown up with it and accept it as normal as you accept someone from Scotland living in the UK.

It's not going away no matter how much you hope. 

 

[spyguy]

A large percentage (majotirry?) of the educated and young have left EU/Balkans.

This has concentrated and embedded already high levels of corruption.

EU has poured money, making it even worse.

Young come back and see how hopeless and corrupt the state is, so stay away.

However ... the UK has hosted the majority of EE/Balkans.

They now face going home or to another EU country.

The return of disgruntled citizens plus a few million ex colonials -Spain and Portugal, Nlands and Sweden handed out citizenship to ex colonies and Somalians, how, as a block have all moved to the UK.

 

 

 

 

 

[zugzwang]

IMF forecasts Greek economy to grow 3.3% this year, 5.4% next.

https://greekcitytimes.com/2021/06/03/imf-greek-economic-growth/

Greece reacted swiftly and proactively to the pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report released on Wednesday.

In a statement issued after the conclusion of the 2021 Article IV consultation mission, the IMF said it expected the Greek economy to grow by 3.3% this year and by 5.4% in 2022.

Greece entered the pandemic with an unfinished recovery, but the country has demonstrated resilience in facing COVID-19.

The economy contracted by 8.2% in 2020, better than expected given Greece’s high dependence on tourism and pre-existing vulnerabilities.

The government provided among the largest on-budget fiscal stimuli in the euro zone, which prevented a spike in corporate distress and kept workers attached to the labor market although young and part-time workers experienced a sharp drop in employment.

 

[kzb]

19 hours ago, IMHAL said:

Isn't it strange that across the hospitality sector there are wide reports of labour shortages, yet none apparently at Weatherspoons...strange that.

I went to spoons last night actually.  I bet if I lost my job and applied to Wetherspoons I wouldn't get anywhere.  Too old.  I don't recall seeing anyone over about 35 working there.  This will apply across this whole sector not just Wetherspoons.

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, spyguy said:

Per capita, money has poured into London/SE.

Even when the North had infrastructure  projects that scored higher than some London/SE, London/Se still got the money and the North got the finger.

There are less n less Conservative voters in London now - the census will show that Brits are now a minority in London.

The fall out from WFH and ongoing risk of infections means London transport infrastructure is now a negative rather  than a plus.

You can always find examples of higher return projects than the ones that get the money. Fixing potholes and subsidising new bus or improved local rail services  would give a far higher return than things like HS2 but lack the glamour of the big new infrastructure projects.

In London the private sector had to contribute heavily to all the recent large infrastructure projects to get the go ahead. Overall London was a cash cow funding spending in other regions, the question is how do you level up when there is no longer any excess cash.  The only likely levelling is levelling down?    

[spyguy]

5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You can always find examples of higher return projects than the ones that get the money. Fixing potholes and subsidising new bus or improved local rail services  would give a far higher return than things like HS2 but lack the glamour of the big new infrastructure projects.

In London the private sector had to contribute heavily to all the recent large infrastructure projects to get the go ahead. Overall London was a cash cow funding spending in other regions, the question is how do you level up when there is no longer any excess cash.  The only likely levelling is levelling down?    

Id agree with that - until 2008.

Then I changed my mind.

You also have to consider  that London hosts a very large number of public sector employees.

 

[yelims]

4 hours ago, dugsbody said:

EU nations citizens have had the right to live and work in other countries for 50+ years. They've grown up with it and accept it as normal as you accept someone from Scotland living in the UK.

It's not going away no matter how much you hope. 

 

Well the real reason is that he wants to prevent a brain drain as people voting with their feet and leaving his country is not a good sign.

[debtlessmanc]

4 hours ago, spyguy said:

They now face going home or to another EU country.

moving to another EU country is a problem as in many cases they never bothered to learn the local language.

I think the distorting effect of the UK being the only major english speaking EU state was difficult to understate. I had conversations several times with people from ethnic minorities trying to move for work to the UK from eg Sweden of the Netherlands. The main complaint was that they (and sometimes their spouses) could not be bothered to learn swedish or dutch "what it the point?"

The UK is part of the anglosphere and EU citizens could move to the anglosphere freely before they took their chance moving to eg Australia the USA or Canada. Which, to their perspectives, are almost identical culturally to the UK. There is facebook page for romainians in the UK. When they did a survey on the effects of Brexit. 50% considered moving, of them 10% would go back to romainia, 10% another EU states and 80% would try to go elsewhere in the anglosphere! Hardly a great advert for the EU.

 

[pig]

6 hours ago, spyguy said:

I voted remain.

Im sceptical on Pols.

Im even more sceptical of undemocratic disconnected bodies made up of techocrats and failed Pols

Europes problems is that it runs with failures, refusing to admit or acknowledge that its two large projects - monetary union and FOM have been a total disaster.

 

 

Yes of course it runs with 'failure' by definition - its an agreement between 28 sovereign countries pretending its the best thing since sliced bread but under the hood actually aiming for the least worst relationship.

FOM is a disaster in the sense that 'privatisation' is a disaster, or women going to work has been a disaster, or the minimum wage is a disaster. You expect a mess with the first draft, a lot of moaning about how it was all better in the past and then a dumping of silly illusions and refinement of strengths.

My guess would be that the current populist wave will force more meticulous controls over movement inside the EU and sadly make it more difficult for people outside the bloc to migrate in.

[pig]

5 hours ago, spyguy said:

A large percentage (majotirry?) of the educated and young have left EU/Balkans.

This has concentrated and embedded already high levels of corruption.

EU has poured money, making it even worse.

Young come back and see how hopeless and corrupt the state is, so stay away.

However ... the UK has hosted the majority of EE/Balkans.

They now face going home or to another EU country.

The return of disgruntled citizens plus a few million ex colonials -Spain and Portugal, Nlands and Sweden handed out citizenship to ex colonies and Somalians, how, as a block have all moved to the UK.

 

 

 

 

 

All sounds very first world snowflake problems...

There is certainly a self-feeding populist frenzy going on but most ordinary people just get on with their lives, not obsessing over painting the world in broad nationalist brush strokes.

[spyguy]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

IMF forecasts Greek economy to grow 3.3% this year, 5.4% next.

https://greekcitytimes.com/2021/06/03/imf-greek-economic-growth/

Greece reacted swiftly and proactively to the pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report released on Wednesday.

In a statement issued after the conclusion of the 2021 Article IV consultation mission, the IMF said it expected the Greek economy to grow by 3.3% this year and by 5.4% in 2022.

Greece entered the pandemic with an unfinished recovery, but the country has demonstrated resilience in facing COVID-19.

The economy contracted by 8.2% in 2020, better than expected given Greece’s high dependence on tourism and pre-existing vulnerabilities.

The government provided among the largest on-budget fiscal stimuli in the euro zone, which prevented a spike in corporate distress and kept workers attached to the labor market although young and part-time workers experienced a sharp drop in employment.

 

I think the IMF numbers are  BS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Greece

From 2000 Greece saw high levels of GDP growth above the Eurozone average, peaking at 5.8% in 2003 and 5.7% in 2006.[52] The subsequent Great Recession and Greek government-debt crisis, a central focus of the wider European debt crisis, plunged the economy into a sharp downturn, with real GDP growth rates of −0.3% in 2008, −4.3% in 2009, −5.5% in 2010, −10.1% in 2011, −7.1% in 2012 and −2.7% in 2013.[53] In 2011, the country's public debt reached €356 billion (172% of nominal GDP).[54] After negotiating the biggest debt restructuring in history with the private sector, a loss of 100 billions for bonds private investors,[55] Greece reduced its sovereign debt burden to €280 billion (137% of GDP) in the first quarter of 2012.[56] Greece achieved a real GDP growth rate of 0.7% in 2014—after 6 years of economic decline—but contracted by 0.4% in 2015 and by 0.5% in 2016.[53][57][58] The country returned to modest growth rates of 1.3% in 2017, 1.6% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019, but suffered a severe recession of an estimated 8.2% of GDP in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[7][53][6]

No way is a country like, Greece where tourism makes up ~10% of GDP , going to positivise growth figures.

Whatever growth they go psot 2002, they more than lost it - and more - post 2008.

 

 

[Locke]

35 minutes ago, pig said:

'privatisation' is a disaster, or women going to work has been a disaster, or the minimum wage is a disaster

Those things are fundamentally bad for society and are a disaster. Quite amusing that you would try to use those as analogies for how FOM and currency union are actually good things.

[coypondboy]

6 hours ago, spyguy said:

A large percentage (majotirry?) of the educated and young have left EU/Balkans.

This has concentrated and embedded already high levels of corruption.

EU has poured money, making it even worse.

Young come back and see how hopeless and corrupt the state is, so stay away.

However ... the UK has hosted the majority of EE/Balkans.

They now face going home or to another EU country.

The return of disgruntled citizens plus a few million ex colonials -Spain and Portugal, Nlands and Sweden handed out citizenship to ex colonies and Somalians, how, as a block have all moved to the UK.

 

 

 

 

 

Most of those who won't meet the 26k earnibgs threshold from Patel's new immigration policy will be applying to stay I reckon 6 million by the end of june with Poland, Bulgaria and Romania the largest contributors and many with large familes due to our generous benefits and education/nhs.  Many won't be able to speak english and will work the black economy whilst getting benefits joing the mass ranks from Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangledesh.  The well educated single youngsters will look to move to germany/france for better job prospects in the future.

[coypondboy]

1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said:

moving to another EU country is a problem as in many cases they never bothered to learn the local language.

I think the distorting effect of the UK being the only major english speaking EU state was difficult to understate. I had conversations several times with people from ethnic minorities trying to move for work to the UK from eg Sweden of the Netherlands. The main complaint was that they (and sometimes their spouses) could not be bothered to learn swedish or dutch "what it the point?"

The UK is part of the anglosphere and EU citizens could move to the anglosphere freely before they took their chance moving to eg Australia the USA or Canada. Which, to their perspectives, are almost identical culturally to the UK. There is facebook page for romainians in the UK. When they did a survey on the effects of Brexit. 50% considered moving, of them 10% would go back to romainia, 10% another EU states and 80% would try to go elsewhere in the anglosphere! Hardly a great advert for the EU.

 

Yep very true we were looking at austria but you need fluent german and local dialects a very difficult language to learn and write if you are in your 50's and never did languages at school.  They do speak english well if under 40 but won't get a job or residency without passing the language tests, shame we don't do this in the UK as many immigrants don't speak english and always find it strange when a news item shows the reporter speaking to the person in a foreign language and then in english to the audience.  I would not be surprised if in 50 years time english is a minority language and my grandkids will be learning chinese or indian as they will be the dominant economies by that time if of course we are no longer hear due to global warming not being taken seriously.

[Staffsknot]

31 minutes ago, Locke said:

Those things are fundamentally bad for society and are a disaster. Quite amusing that you would try to use those as analogies for how FOM and currency union are actually good things.

Women going to work being a disaster is a rather regressive view don't you think?

If you don't just see women as baby birthing machines their contributions to society and any number of fields has been valuable. So not a disaster at all.

I would have thought your indepence of will anarchist leanings would be at serious odds with such conclusions.

[Staffsknot]

4 minutes ago, coypondboy said:

Yep very true we were looking at austria but you need fluent german and local dialects a very difficult language to learn and write if you are in your 50's and never did languages at school.  They do speak english well if under 40 but won't get a job or residency without passing the language tests, shame we don't do this in the UK as many immigrants don't speak english and always find it strange when a news item shows the reporter speaking to the person in a foreign language and then in english to the audience.  I would not be surprised if in 50 years time english is a minority language and my grandkids will be learning chinese or indian as they will be the dominant economies by that time if of course we are no longer hear due to global warming not being taken seriously.

I often see a case where a place is full of expats ( so immigrants basically )all barely capable of speaking the local language and chucking in the old adage - English is the world language.

I remember the look of shock when I spoke Swahili and the pair of Brits living there gave a round of applause then asked what I'd said. They'd lived there 4 years never bothered. It is swings and roundabouts, just everyone notices it when its 'immigrants', not so much when they are rebadged 'expats'.

[Locke]

30 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Women going to work being a disaster is a rather regressive view don't you think?

I really, really don't care about labels like that. Is it true, or isn't it?

27 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

If you don't just see women as baby birthing machines

Having to go to work is shitty. Many women have now found out how much more rewarding it is to stay home and raise their own children rather than drag themselves into an office and do make-work. For substantially less than minimum wage once childcare is taken into account, I might add.

31 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

their contributions to society and any number of fields has been valuable. So not a disaster at all.

Costs don't matter to you, do they?