Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Bruce Banner]

The UK is becoming a rogue state. Global sanctions may be necessary to curb the excesses of this regime.

[Confusion of VIs]

52 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Starmer didn't mention it at PMQs - striking - though I guess things will hot up with Labour next week when the bill goes to the House.

It feels like a lot of people have just given up caring.

Starmer was right not to. Him forensically exposing Boris's dishonesty would have gone over the heads of most voters and pulled the Tory party closer together, while at the same time reopening the Remoaner attack line.  Far better to just let this unfold while continuing the drip drip attacks on Tory incompetence.

That seems true. 

 

  

[thehowler]

42 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

So you say but you're still unable to say what that deal looks like. The EU will never back down on maintaining the GFA and protecting the single market, which means the only option is a customs/reg border between the UK mainland and NI. 

So in order for you "Deal in December" to happen, the EU will need to back down on that (not happening) with some sort of fudge or the UK will need to back down on (possibly but now seems unlikely).

So which do you see happening and please (really please) could you describe how you see it happening in just a bit of detail.

But of course, dugs.

First, I don't think fish is a problem. I know some people do but I'm not getting into it, it's all political - tiny economic gains - and both sides could sell changes as a win, or satisfactory.

We get financial equivalence for the City with a six month grace on any ban (think it's one month only for US, is that still right?). Maybe some independent arbitration but that might be asking too much. EU will still have all the power there.

State aid/Level playing field. EU have to give up dynamic alignment on rules/regs/standards. UK will have to agree to some form of live scrutiny, published plan or similar, with a dispute mechanism and cut-off if they go below agreed norms/standards. This is the tricky bit. We need a tough enough LPF to satisfy the EU, without the UK feeling that they don't have a return of sovereignty, whatever that is. Frankly, if the UK govt are so stupid they can't see that all global trade is now dependent on agreed standards/rules - to a scale - then there's no chance of deal.

Tariffs and quotas to be agreed, not such a big deal - to my eyes - and that can evolve.

Geographical indications all have to stay in place for the EU, natch.

And then we have a series of negotiations on all the reciprocal stuff - could even have an implementation period here - on haulage, aviation etc. I know the EU is not obliged to give us anything here, but it's all stuff where the citizen benefit is actually weighed towards the EU because of the population imbalance, but I know some posters would reject that.

All that said, I've been embarrassed watching the UK govt spectacle over the last 24 hours...actions of the govt have been so imbecilic and contemptuous towards our friends across the Channel - I have friends there too - and the rule of law. I'm only fearful that things will get even worse without a FTA as a first step.

 

[Timm]

At what point do we stop subscribing all of this to idiocy or 4D chess.

And start to think there may be hostile intent?

 

 

Hang on, someone's at the door.

Edited September 10, 2020 by Timm

[thehowler]

Just now, Timm said:

hostile

Hang on, someone's at the door.

Is it the wolf?

[Timm]

Thank you for sliding my post.

It's for the best.

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by Timm

[OnionTerror]

13 minutes ago, thehowler said:

But of course, dugs.

First, I don't think fish is a problem. I know some people do but I'm not getting into it, it's all political - tiny economic gains - and both sides could sell changes as a win, or satisfactory.

We get financial equivalence for the City with a six month grace on any ban (think it's one month only for US, is that still right?). Maybe some independent arbitration but that might be asking too much. EU will still have all the power there.

State aid/Level playing field. EU have to give up dynamic alignment on rules/regs/standards. UK will have to agree to some form of live scrutiny, published plan or similar, with a dispute mechanism and cut-off if they go below agreed norms/standards. This is the tricky bit. We need a tough enough LPF to satisfy the EU, without the UK feeling that they don't have a return of sovereignty, whatever that is. Frankly, if the UK govt are so stupid they can't see that all global trade is now dependent on agreed standards/rules - to a scale - then there's no chance of deal.

Tariffs and quotas to be agreed, not such a big deal - to my eyes - and that can evolve.

Geographical indications all have to stay in place for the EU, natch.

And then we have a series of negotiations on all the reciprocal stuff - could even have an implementation period here - on haulage, aviation etc. I know the EU is not obliged to give us anything here, but it's all stuff where the citizen benefit is actually weighed towards the EU because of the population imbalance, but I know some posters would reject that.

All that said, I've been embarrassed watching the UK govt spectacle over the last 24 hours...actions of the govt have been so imbecilic and contemptuous towards our friends across the Channel - I have friends there too - and the rule of law. I'm only fearful that things will get even worse without a FTA as a first step.

 

How would that work with NI?  As the SM is a constantly moveable feast, parity is restored across all EEA states due to dynamic alignment as changes are made..

[dugsbody]

1 hour ago, thehowler said:

But of course, dugs.

First, I don't think fish is a problem. I know some people do but I'm not getting into it, it's all political - tiny economic gains - and both sides could sell changes as a win, or satisfactory.

We get financial equivalence for the City with a six month grace on any ban (think it's one month only for US, is that still right?). Maybe some independent arbitration but that might be asking too much. EU will still have all the power there.

State aid/Level playing field. EU have to give up dynamic alignment on rules/regs/standards. UK will have to agree to some form of live scrutiny, published plan or similar, with a dispute mechanism and cut-off if they go below agreed norms/standards. This is the tricky bit. We need a tough enough LPF to satisfy the EU, without the UK feeling that they don't have a return of sovereignty, whatever that is. Frankly, if the UK govt are so stupid they can't see that all global trade is now dependent on agreed standards/rules - to a scale - then there's no chance of deal.

Tariffs and quotas to be agreed, not such a big deal - to my eyes - and that can evolve.

Geographical indications all have to stay in place for the EU, natch.

And then we have a series of negotiations on all the reciprocal stuff - could even have an implementation period here - on haulage, aviation etc. I know the EU is not obliged to give us anything here, but it's all stuff where the citizen benefit is actually weighed towards the EU because of the population imbalance, but I know some posters would reject that.

All that said, I've been embarrassed watching the UK govt spectacle over the last 24 hours...actions of the govt have been so imbecilic and contemptuous towards our friends across the Channel - I have friends there too - and the rule of law. I'm only fearful that things will get even worse without a FTA as a first step.

 

Thank you very much. However, I specifically mentioned the NI issue because (as @Dave Beans) pointed out, dynamic alignment is a thing, and the UK don't want that. Which brings me back to my question, how does that work? Will the UK back down on dynamic alignment or will they back down on the customs/reg border between mainland and NI? Or none?

Anyway, enough for today, thanks.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

The UK is becoming a rogue state. Global sanctions may be necessary to curb the excesses of this regime.

I propose we merge with France and move Parliament  to Paris.

[14stFlyer]

9 hours ago, IMHAL said:

Now if the UK wanted a Norway type deal....we would not have an issue. Afterall.... it's still Brexit..and that is what the majority of voters would actually accept as a compromise.

But the EU made it clear that this was not possible without the  freedoms. 
 

Nope, notwithstanding the convincing arguments put forward by dugsbody and others, I am afraid the EU approach has definitely contributed to the trajectory we now find ourselves on. Indeed, just like the well meaning LibDems, Greens, SNP and even some Tory MPs before them, the EU seem determined to play smart and act dumb. 
 

Without the opportunity for a firm middle ground, we now find ourselves saddled with extreme positions. 
 

I just hope the EU have the sense not to take this to court.  

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Can you finish these Brexit catchphrases?

Thejournal Quiz

A lot of Brexit talk over the past four years. In that time, we’ve had many weird and wonderful phrases that have ping-ponged through social media and comedy sketches. As soon as one gets old, another pops up.

So how many of these Brexit phrases can you finish off?

 

After hectic days time for Brexit quiz.

 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

7 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

After hectic days time for Brexit quiz.

 

8/10 for me.

[NobodyInParticular]

32 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I propose we merge with France and move Parliament  to Paris.

It's more traditional to have the Dutch invade or put a German on the throne in a crisis like this.

[NobodyInParticular]

16 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

Nope, notwithstanding the convincing arguments put forward by dugsbody and others, I am afraid the EU approach has definitely contributed to the trajectory we now find ourselves on. Indeed, just like the well meaning LibDems, Greens, SNP and even some Tory MPs before them, the EU seem determined to play smart and act dumb.  

Yep, when someone is going to indulge in self-harm it's always the people trying to convince them not to who are to blame when they do.

[OnionTerror]

3 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

Yep, when someone is going to indulge in self-harm it's always the people trying to convince them not to who are to blame when they do.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2019/mar/27/how-did-your-mp-vote-in-the-indicative-votes

[Confusion of VIs]

6 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

But the EU made it clear that this was not possible without the  freedoms. 
 

Nope, notwithstanding the convincing arguments put forward by dugsbody and others, I am afraid the EU approach has definitely contributed to the trajectory we now find ourselves on. Indeed, just like the well meaning LibDems, Greens, SNP and even some Tory MPs before them, the EU seem determined to play smart and act dumb. 
 

Without the opportunity for a firm middle ground, we now find ourselves saddled with extreme positions. 
 

I just hope the EU have the sense not to take this to court.  

The EU's position has been consistent from the start, if we want Cherries we have to accept commensurate obligations. 

The UK position has been driven by the Tories need to keep up the pretence that a have cake and eat it deal will be available, until after we left the EU. 

Now they have the tricky task of having to deliver a deal which the UK population would not have voted for, without being held to account for the Brexit false prospectus. To do this they need a huge row with the EU that will play well with the Brexit vote even if the price is no deal.

 

        

[NobodyInParticular]

2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The EU's position has been consistent from the start, if we want Cherries we have to accept commensurate obligations. 

The UK position has been driven by the Tories need to keep up the pretence that a have cake and eat it deal will be available, until after we left the EU. 

Now they have the tricky task of having to deliver a deal which the UK population would not have voted for, without being held to account for the Brexit false prospectus. To do this they need a huge row with the EU that will play well with the Brexit vote even if the price is no deal.

+1

[thehowler]

2 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

How would that work with NI?  As the SM is a constantly moveable feast, parity is restored across all EEA states due to dynamic alignment as changes are made..

One side is going to have to give a bit on NI - either the EU exempting/diluting full DA or the UK accepting EU regulatory oversight.

[thehowler]

Nothing meaningful in the press releases on the trade talks this week...

The talks were already dead, might as well accept it. Everyone was sitting around waiting for something to happen.

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, 14stFlyer said:

But the EU made it clear that this was not possible without the  freedoms. 
 

Nope, notwithstanding the convincing arguments put forward by dugsbody and others, I am afraid the EU approach has definitely contributed to the trajectory we now find ourselves on. Indeed, just like the well meaning LibDems, Greens, SNP and even some Tory MPs before them, the EU seem determined to play smart and act dumb. 
 

Without the opportunity for a firm middle ground, we now find ourselves saddled with extreme positions. 
 

I just hope the EU have the sense not to take this to court.  

i can't remember the freedoms being part of the referendum. The issue of freedoms was a hard Brexit construct... not something the people voted for, or against. Why then is it then the EU's fault?

Sorry, don't buy it. Norway satisfies the referendum result...

Edited September 10, 2020 by IMHAL

[OnionTerror]

39 minutes ago, thehowler said:

One side is going to have to give a bit on NI - either the EU exempting/diluting full DA or the UK accepting EU regulatory oversight.

There has been talk...

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30899440.html

[IMHAL]

43 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The EU's position has been consistent from the start, if we want Cherries we have to accept commensurate obligations. 

The UK position has been driven by the Tories need to keep up the pretence that a have cake and eat it deal will be available, until after we left the EU. 

Now they have the tricky task of having to deliver a deal which the UK population would not have voted for, without being held to account for the Brexit false prospectus. To do this they need a huge row with the EU that will play well with the Brexit vote even if the price is no deal.

 

        

+1 The tories are the ERG and UKIP with a smattering of subserviant tory jobsworths. 'Brexit for the pople' has been hijacked by the batsh1t and the price for this will be paid for by everyone.

Unlike others, I think the 48% will not take kindly to the aftermath. I also think a majority of mild Brexiteers will now question what has happened to the Brexit they were promised....especially so when the sh1t hits the fan and ......hits them in the face....in January 2021.

Reality of Brexit is being made apparent...the unicorn is turning into the donkey it always was...it's now a question of, not if, but how long will it be before people realise this. My guess is the next GE will see in a more rational gov with a more rational approach...but not before a whole load of damage is done.

[thehowler]

6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

There has been talk...

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30899440.html

I remember it from previous discussions. Huge EU cash support payments to ROI/investment in port infrastructure would help.

Nothing is for certain these days, the old ways are broken.

But does Johnson really want to be out in the wilderness, or a deal. I still think the latter.

 

[thehowler]

2 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Reality of Brexit is being made apparent...the unicorn is turning into the donkey it always was...it's now a question of, not if, but how long will it be before people realise this. My guess is the next GE will see in a more rational gov with a more rational approach...but not before a whole load of damage is done.

That's four years away. Look what's happened in the last 24 hours!

At least the story is the headline on the main news shows tonight, maybe people are waking up to it.

Room for the govt to dial things back a bit...

[OnionTerror]

3 minutes ago, thehowler said:

I remember it from previous discussions. Huge EU cash support payments to ROI/investment in port infrastructure would help.

Nothing is for certain these days, the old ways are broken.

But does Johnson really want to be out in the wilderness, or a deal. I still think the latter.

 

It'll end up which side of the bed he gets out of on deadline day...