thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 The tide is turning fast. The EU look as though they're playing catch up. Not surprising given the brash disregard for international convention from the UK govt. Choice now for EU is do you want a FTA closer to UK desired terms - no dynamic alignment, no direct control/veto over GB decisions via NI rules and regs - or do you want a period of no deal, litigation and uncertainty. Or walk away from the talks and begin litigation. Posturing by the EP is noble but hopeless. Ball is in the EU's court whether you like it or not, whether it's morally just or not. Clear to everyone that UK govt will risk their international reputation in order to say they will not accept EU rules and regs on state aid/LPF as suggested in the NI protocol. Act 3 approaches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Exiled Canadian said: So Johnson legacy could end up being: 1. No deal Brexit 2. Massive recession (combination of Covid impact and no deal Brexit) 3. Scottish independence 4. Irish re-unification 5. UK seen as untrustworthy trade partner he's only had the job just over a year - what's his plan for the next four? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strontium_Dog#Earth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said: Scots living in the UK might like the option to immediately claim EU citizenship via Scottish birth. I am not sure including Scots living in England, Wales, and NI will actually be that keen to vote against Scottish independence. Also, Boris setting the wording would be very unpopular and seen as a bit like the EU setting the referendum question for 2016 might have been seen. Since they've already been saying they will, it's not too early. In terms of the economy, it's up 6.6% after being down 20+%. It's still more net negative than every other European nation, AFAIK. How do you mean 'immediately'? Do you think the Scots will gain EU member state status on the day the vote is counted? Will the Scots' ref be on an agreed leave position? Or will it be similar to the Brexit vote? Regards the economy, too early to say, but it's improving - don't think you can dispute that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeroSumGame Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said: I reckon he'll be gone by February. That document suggests Gove is already in charge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said: Since they've already been saying they will, it's not too early. Other than the US - I take it that's who you mean - who else is shunning us? And the US concerns are about the breakdown of the GFA. Johnson will argue that everything he does is to protect it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, thehowler said: The tide is turning fast. The EU look as though they're playing catch up. Nope. The EU has been firm and the UK has been doing insane stuff for months. It's only playing catch up in the sense that it didn't think the current level of insanity was possible. 8 minutes ago, thehowler said: Choice now for EU is do you want a FTA closer to UK desired terms - no dynamic alignment, no direct control/veto over GB decisions via NI rules and regs - or do you want a period of no deal, litigation and uncertainty. But that's not politically or economically possible for the EU. The UK must know this. 8 minutes ago, thehowler said: Or walk away from the talks and begin litigation. Oh, the EU can walk away and just let the UK fall. It doesn't have to litigate for that. 8 minutes ago, thehowler said: Posturing by the EP is noble but hopeless. The EP isn't posturing - it simply isn't credible to say it's OK for the UK to tear up a treaty it signed with the EU and break international law. If the EU was tearing up the WA and breaking international law and the UK Parliament objected would you say the UK Parliament was posturing? 8 minutes ago, thehowler said: Ball is in the EU's court whether you like it or not, whether it's morally just or not. It looks to me more like in the UK's court - is the UK going to go the 'nuclear' option (i.e. nuke itself) or not? 8 minutes ago, thehowler said: Clear to everyone that UK govt will risk their international reputation in order to say they will not accept EU rules and regs on state aid/LPF as suggested in the NI protocol. Sorry, by doing this the UK has said it doesn't want a deal at all and wants to trash its reputation and not have deals with anywhere apart from maybe Botswana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 23 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said: Nowhere near as stupid. You really do sound a lot like a Brexiteer. Cheap jibes. Desperate. SIlly threats from the EP are not helpful to either side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, thehowler said: The tide is turning fast. The EU look as though they're playing catch up. Not surprising given the brash disregard for international convention from the UK govt. Choice now for EU is do you want a FTA closer to UK desired terms - no dynamic alignment, no direct control/veto over GB decisions via NI rules and regs - or do you want a period of no deal, litigation and uncertainty. Or walk away from the talks and begin litigation. Posturing by the EP is noble but hopeless. Ball is in the EU's court whether you like it or not, whether it's morally just or not. Clear to everyone that UK govt will risk their international reputation in order to say they will not accept EU rules and regs on state aid/LPF as suggested in the NI protocol. Act 3 approaches. The UK could carry on being obstinate, and could say "go on then, protect your single market...we aren't putting up a border"... we then hit no deal.. Will the EU be forced to put SPS checks on the European mainland?.. possibly... After months of strife during no deal, the UK comes looking for a deal... Now it gets interesting... Edited September 11, 2020 by Dave Beans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Just now, thehowler said: Other than the US - I take it that's who you mean - who else is shunning us? The EU has indicated that breaking the WA is not possible and is already talking of sanctions being possible. However, it is willing to continue to negotiate for the moment, presumably assuming sanity might return. It's still the EU that has the power here. Canada and NZ are sticklers for international law so whilst I can't find any specific reports of reactions as I need to improve my Google skills to avoid UK results, I can't see anything positive being likely there. Just now, thehowler said: And the US concerns are about the breakdown of the GFA. Johnson will argue that everything he does is to protect it. And it won't be believed because it is BS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, thehowler said: Cheap jibes. Desperate. Desperate for what? You are now talking like it is a debate to be won to score points. It's not, and I am not trying to, just analyse the situation. 7 minutes ago, thehowler said: SIlly threats from the EP are not helpful to either side. It's not a silly threat, though. I don't think you realise how much tension UK Conservative governments have built up in the last year, last 4 years and last 35 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said: But that's not politically or economically possible for the EU. Yes it is. There's no mystery. EU will decide whether to fudge a FTA and drop dynamic alignment etc - if they think it's in their interests. Or cut the UK loose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, thehowler said: How do you mean 'immediately'? Do you think the Scots will gain EU member state status on the day the vote is counted? Sorry, I meant immediately after Scotland joining the EU. 13 minutes ago, thehowler said: Regards the economy, too early to say, but it's improving - don't think you can dispute that! It is indeed, currently improving, but COVID-19 has been handled in the UK incredibly badly. I don't think you can dispute that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Dave Beans said: The UK could carry on being obstinate, and could say "go on then, protect your single market...we aren't putting up a border"... we then hit no deal.. Will the EU be forced to put SPS checks on the European mainland?.. possibly... After months of strife during no deal, the UK comes looking for a deal... Now it gets interesting... Yes, I think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, thehowler said: Yes it is. There's no mystery. EU will decide whether to fudge a FTA and drop dynamic alignment etc - if they think it's in their interests. Or cut the UK loose. Can't overly see it myself...it undermines the whole idea of the single market... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said: The EU has indicated that breaking the WA is not possible and is already talking of sanctions being possible. However, it is willing to continue to negotiate for the moment, presumably assuming sanity might return. It's still the EU that has the power here. Canada and NZ are sticklers for international law so whilst I can't find any specific reports of reactions as I need to improve my Google skills to avoid UK results, I can't see anything positive being likely there. And it won't be believed because it is BS. So...nobody else yet. We'll see over the weekend but I don't see any international condemnation yet. And we just agreed a deal in principle with a major world economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said: Desperate for what? Then don't resort to name calling as an attempt to belittle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said: Sorry, I meant immediately after Scotland joining the EU. It is indeed, currently improving, but COVID-19 has been handled in the UK incredibly badly. I don't think you can dispute that! Many years away, at best. Certainly not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 24 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said: I reckon he'll be gone by February. That document suggests Gove is already in charge. My whispers were this month. Let's see. The Men in Grey Suits may be round soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, Dave Beans said: Can't overly see it myself...it undermines the whole idea of the single market... Then we're gone. Events this week have shown the UK will walk, until we get a change of leaders or a GE or some other reckoning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Johnson's cracking up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: My whispers were this month. Let's see. The Men in Grey Suits may be round soon. And what pro-EU, anti-Brexit, anti-80-seat-majority-on-back-of-Brexit-promise cabinet minister will that be that replaces him? Best to accept what's going on and stop dreaming just because it fits with your value system. Wake up! We have a defiant, hardline pro-Brexit PM, cabinet and party. We have announced to the world that we will break an EU treaty to stop EU regs/rules applying to the UK. EU has to decide whether to engage with it or walk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, thehowler said: And what pro-EU, anti-Brexit, anti-80-seat-majority-on-back-of-Brexit-promise cabinet minister will that be that replaces him? Best to accept what's going on and stop dreaming just because it fits with your value system. Wake up! We have a defiant, hardline pro-Brexit PM, cabinet and party. We have announced to the world that we will break an EU treaty to stop EU regs/rules applying to the UK. EU has to decide whether to engage with it or walk. The nearest, potentially, would be Raab.. whenever Boris goes.. Edited September 11, 2020 by Dave Beans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, thehowler said: And what pro-EU, anti-Brexit, anti-80-seat-majority-on-back-of-Brexit-promise cabinet minister will that be that replaces him? Best to accept what's going on and stop dreaming just because it fits with your value system. Wake up! We have a defiant, hardline pro-Brexit PM, cabinet and party. We have announced to the world that we will break an EU treaty to stop EU regs/rules applying to the UK. EU has to decide whether to engage with it or walk. The EU's calculation hasn't changed from the beginning. Johnson just can't accept it, hence throwing his toys out of the pram. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said: Johnson's cracking up. Nah, sticking with the script. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Dave Beans said: The nearest, potentially, would be Raab.. whenever Boris goes.. You think Raab is rational? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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