Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[pig]

17 minutes ago, ccc said:

You really are being incredibly blinkered about this.

She was the leader of a major UK political party.

You just can't admit the BBC have been ridiculously bias on this - can you ?

This is just classic UKIP.

Blame Somebody Else. And add a puerile paranoid shot at the BBC just for fun.

Diversionary claptrap hasn't worked this time though has it ? It doesn't take much intelligence to understand the basis of this crisis is nothing more than a reflection of the internal swivel-eyed shambles within UKIP.

If you're going to be paranoid, and you're going to focus who is really shafting you this precise moment, have a thought for the miraculous coincidence of Theresa May precisely aiming at a chunk of your vote.

Geddit ?

[Peter Hun]

11 minutes ago, Crumbless said:

Can i have a breakdown of how you came up with this figure?

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/International_trade_in_services

 

Quote

The United Kingdom was the largest exporter among the EU Member States for extra EU-28 international transactions in services. In 2013 it accounted for a 21.3 % share of exports leaving the EU for non-member countries. The United Kingdom recorded the highest surplus for international trade in services with extra EU-28 partners (EUR 78.8 billion), followed by France (EUR 21.6 billion) and Germany (EUR 13.4 billion). Ireland was the only EU Member State that recorded a deficit (EUR 3.6 billion) for extra EU-28 transactions in services, although the Czech Republic’s extra EU trade position for services was balanced (see Table 3).

 

 

[canbuywontbuy]

19 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Was it official? 

I suggest you revisit "Project Fear" when Article 50 has been invoked and we are 6 months away from leaving the EU.

I have the strangest feeling you may find some of the claims prescient.

Funny how Project Fear is always in the future.  Six months before leaving the EU, you'll be saying "just wait til we leave the EU!" - and so on. 

[billybong]

27 minutes ago, pig said:

This is just classic UKIP.

Blame Somebody Else. And add a puerile paranoid shot at the BBC just for fun.

Diversionary claptrap hasn't worked this time though has it ? It doesn't take much intelligence to understand the basis of this crisis is nothing more than a reflection of the internal swivel-eyed shambles within UKIP.

If you're going to be paranoid, and you're going to focus who is really shafting you this precise moment, have a thought for the miraculous coincidence of Theresa May precisely aiming at a chunk of your vote.

Geddit ?

My bold.

Cameron/the Conservatives targeted a chunk of their vote (the tens of thousands commitment) more than once and that turned out to be just a pack of lies and now Brtain is heading out of the eu.  Is May just doing the same - the electorate does seem to be waking up to that particular tactic. 

Edited October 5, 2016 by billybong

[ccc]

Futuroid - you are correct not just the BBC who show bias on this subject. However they were doing a piece this morning on her leaving and the REASONS behind it. One of the reasons behind it sources in her party have stated is this abuse of getting spat on. Why would they not mention it ? Total bias.

Pig - Blame somebody else ? There are a number of reasons UKIP have given from 'sources' as to her departure. This is just one. The main one being given from what I have read so far however - is her feeling of lack of support in the party. So no - it looks like they are quite happily admitting their party is in a bit of a mess to me.

[Futuroid]

8 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Funny how Project Fear is always in the future.  Six months before leaving the EU, you'll be saying "just wait til we leave the EU!" - and so on. 

Nothing funny about it. The predictions of the Treasury, the IMF, etc were based on Britain leaving the EU. Sometimes I am am slow on the uptake but I think it's safe to say we we have not yet left. In fact, it's only now, three months after the referendum that we even have an approximate date for the activation of Article 50!

As for what shape Brexit will take, I don't think there is a living soul that knows that at this stage. All we have is bluster, hopes, dreams and guesses.

Once May pushes the button, and we are close to the end of our two year negotiation window, come back and tell us how much of "Project Fear" you still think was lies.

[OnionTerror]

40 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

I don't think May could be clearer on her speech (right now) that we will be having a hard Brexit.  Bring. It. On. 

http://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-moves-to-allay-hard-brexit-fears-after-pound-slump-10605390

Sounds like some form of EEA membership (to me at least)...

[Crumbless]

20 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/International_trade_in_services

So in other words you have no data on why Britain is going to lose £80 billion of exports. 

Do you think Britain is going to be stopping all planes, boats, telephone calls, emails, letters, telegrams, pigeons from entering?

Have you even read what your own link is about?

Here is a clue its in the title "International trade in services"

Edited October 5, 2016 by Crumbless

[ccc]

It doesn't matter about predictions really. As I've already said - nobody will ever know what mess the UK is in in future years - and it will be - will have anything to do with Brexit or not.

[pig]

7 minutes ago, billybong said:

My bold.

Cameron/the Conservatives targeted a chunk of their vote (the tens of thousands commitment) more than once and that turned out to be just a pack of lies and now Brtain is heading out of the eu.  Is May just doing the same - the electorate does seem to be waking up to that particular tactic. 

You could be right there.

However - I doubt if I'm the only one who's talked to lukewarm/nervous leavers who'd proudly take separation from the EU but be more than happy to minimise damage to the UK economy, hence trotting back to some idea of stability. I'm not a walking Ipsos MorIs poll but finger in the air thats a substantial chunk of the vote that May is looking to clean up on.

Add the Corbyn saga almost all working like clockwork isn't it ? 

[canbuywontbuy]

5 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Nothing funny about it. The predictions of the Treasury, the IMF, etc were based on Britain leaving the EU. Sometimes I am am slow on the uptake but I think it's safe to say we we have not yet left. In fact, it's only now, three months after the referendum that we even have an approximate date for the activation of Article 50!

As for what shape Brexit will take, I don't think there is a living soul that knows that at this stage. All we have is bluster, hopes, dreams and guesses.

Once May pushes the button, and we are close to the end of our two year negotiation window, come back and tell us how much of "Project Fear" you still think was lies.

You're ploughing a lonely furrow there. A lot of the proponents of Project Fear have now changed their minds: ONS, OECD, IMF, even Osborne....

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/09/22/project-fear-destroyed-oedc-imf-u-turn-brexit-warnings/

 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

49 minutes ago, ccc said:

You really are being incredibly blinkered about this.

She was the leader of a major UK political party.

You just can't admit the BBC have been ridiculously bias on this - can you ?

Actually she wasn't, she never took up the post and with 1 MP UKIP is hardly a major political party.

My view of the BBC is that it tries to be fair, but the lefty inclinations of the majority of its staff does show through.

On the other hand you seem to have a frothing at the mouth anti BBC bias.

[canbuywontbuy]

13 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

http://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-moves-to-allay-hard-brexit-fears-after-pound-slump-10605390

Sounds like some form of EEA membership (to me at least)...

We will see - but based on her speech today and also from your own article she states:-

Quote

"We need to approach this to make sure we get the right deal for the UK, not looking at models that already exist but saying 'what's going to work for us?'.

Sounds like it will be some kind of bespoke arrangement.

Edited October 5, 2016 by canbuywontbuy

[geezer466]

3 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

We are going to lose £80billion of our exports, if you think that won't have an effect, dream on.

All is fair in love and war...... The various EU nations will then lose £120 billions of their exports into the UK.

On the balance of trade each way we can be re-markedly relaxed. They need our aero engines and top end engineering as it is the best there is. We can get yoghurts, cheese and bacon from anywhere....

[Unexpected]

44 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

We are going to lose £80billion of our exports, if you think that won't have an effect, dream on.

 

Doesn't appear to be priced into the markets. In fact the markets are up. Why?

[OnionTerror]

2 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

You have this thing about EEA membership.  It will be (IMHO) bespoke - based on her speech today and also from your own article she states:-

 

EEA is a framework to access the single market...the Norway option is a model of that...I think they'll remodel the EEA agreement in our favour, and call it the "British option"...

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86103

What helps here is the flexibility of this agreement which can accommodate country-specific amendments without changing the fundamental nature of the Agreement. With UK-specific protocols and Annexes, including its own "sectoral adaptations", this will end up being the "British option", tailored to its particular needs. 

 

[spyguy]

9 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

You're ploughing a lonely furrow there. A lot of the proponents of Project Fear have now changed their minds: ONS, OECD, IMF, even Osborne....

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/09/22/project-fear-destroyed-oedc-imf-u-turn-brexit-warnings/

 

 

 

Its bigger than Brexit.

Its the fundamental problem with Economists Technocrats:

*MACROECONOMICS IS ALL FCKING JUNK, MADE UP, HOMEOPATHIC NONSENSE*

All these serious looking people, supposedly well educated, talking about 0.02% growth, competitiveness, and the like. Predicting this and that in x years time.

Its all ******. You might have well have some looney old reflexologist in charge. They both share  the same level of competence.

https://www.law.yale.edu/system/files/area/workshop/leo/leo16_romer.pdf

All their maths, reasoning, when you borrow down, is based on utter ****** foundation.

 

[billybong]

26 minutes ago, pig said:

You could be right there.

However - I doubt if I'm the only one who's talked to lukewarm/nervous leavers who'd proudly take separation from the EU but be more than happy to minimise damage to the UK economy, hence trotting back to some idea of stability. I'm not a walking Ipsos MorIs poll but finger in the air thats a substantial chunk of the vote that May is looking to clean up on.

Add the Corbyn saga almost all working like clockwork isn't it ? 

For sure she'll be looking to take votes and maybe she'll succeed.  I suspect it depends on how believable her statements turn out to be before the elections.  It would be shameful if they turn out to be as totally unreliable as Cameron's.  Who knows what might happen in the eu and Britain etc in the next few months to sway lukewarm remainer votes away from remain - if it came to matter.

I'm not a supporter but I was pleased Corbyn won Labour's leadership election on the basis that it could ultimately benefit the country giving people a real choice rather than a LibLabCon type of choice - but he seems to have jettisoned that sort of support with his post leadership election statements especially on immigration (the increasing congestion most everywhere is getting intolerable) which seems to play right into the Conservatives hands although it won't pay to underestimate him politically.  He might for instance be banking on the Conservatives reneging yet again on their immigration statements so that he doesn't seem to be that much different on the subject come election time.

Edited October 5, 2016 by billybong

[kzb]

16 hours ago, pig said:

Yes but the irony is I probably wouldn't have watched it if I wasn't (correctly) suspicous that kzb was telling a bit of a whopper. To continue the football analogy, BBC 2, Tory/Murdoch Ministry of Truth 0.

In what way was I telling a bit of a whopper?

Evan Davis is the Newsnight anchorman.  Yes, he is supposed to ask insightful and difficult questions, I have no problem with that.  That is rightly his job.  But he is meant to exhibit BALANCE.

Another piece had a reporter going round asking conference attendees questions like, "what is the single market?" or "what is a customs union?".  The idea being of course to embarrass Brexiteers by exposing the ignorance of these people.

I didn't complain about that because I think this is fair game.  It was the equivalent to going round Labour ministers at conference asking where their children go to school (answer:  almost all go to selective schools).

Exposing ignorance and hypocracy of politicians is OK by me, in fact I want to see more of it.

No it's the complete lack of any attempt at balance by Evan Davis that I am concerned with. 

[ccc]

Confusion you are trying your best to get out of saying you also think they are bias. Fine - that's up to you - I personally think anyone who thinks that must be off their rocker but hey ho !!

She was their 'leader' as far as the media and the population were concerned. Whether she had signed a certain bit of paper or not.

And UKIP are a major UK political party - again - whether you like it or not.

And if this had happened to any other similar status 'leader' of a UK political party - and it was being mentioned as one of many reasons for their very swift departure - the BBC would state it.

They just hate UKIP. But yes I agree their general left wing leaning bias is central to this. Goes beyond that IMO though.

And for the record yes I am anti BBC [When it comes to news/ politics etc..] in a big way.

[Will!]

Bloomberg:  Brexit Aide Says U.K. Has Four Red Lines in Coming Talks With EU

Quote

“We are not in the business of developing trade policies,” Jackson said. “But we are in the business of honoring the faith and trust that the British people put in us and the instruction to deliver on June 23 around the key red lines, which are: no contribution to the budget; no jurisdiction for the European Court of Justice; the end of free movement; and British laws being made in our sovereign Parliament.”

Red lines

Around freedom of

Movement,

 

Independence of parliament and the judiciary, but no word on

Trade policies

 

Edited October 5, 2016 by Will!

[warpig]

You're not listening. Issues 1, 2 and 3 are ALL about sovereignty. There's a huge overlap in the questions. Item 1 is decisions in the UK, that's EVERYTHING.

16 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

No it supports my post, 49% of the 51% who voted leave had it as their top priority which is a quarter of those who voted.

 

[kzb]

17 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The BBC gas been heavily criticised for equating balance with having to give equal airtime to both sides of the argument, even when one side is supported by the weight of expert opinion and the other composed of fruitcakes and chancers out to make a quick buck - think of the MMR vaccination "scandal" that never was, GM foods or more recently Fracking.

At the moment almost all economists think that Brexit will leave the UK permanently poorer, including the HM Treasury and the Chancellor. The figures quoted last night were at least as bad as those quoted by Osborne and labelled project fear. What were the BBC expected to do ignore this and join in with the vacuous delusional lines being spouted in the conference speeches.

I suspect the reason there was a line up of Remainers was that they couldn't get any Brexiteers to come on, and if you saw Damian Green being monstered by Andrew Neil today you can see why keeping your head down is a sensible choice at the moment.

If you follow that argument to its logical conclusion, we would do away with democracy and all issues would be decided by "experts".

[Confusion of VIs]

55 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

You're ploughing a lonely furrow there. A lot of the proponents of Project Fear have now changed their minds: ONS, OECD, IMF, even Osborne....

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/09/22/project-fear-destroyed-oedc-imf-u-turn-brexit-warnings/

 

 

 

Those are short term forecasts i.e. before Brexit happens, an unbiased observer would take that as showing the economy was doing reasonably well.

The longer term forecasts of a 4% permanent drop in GDP assuming we get a good amicable exit deal have not changed; and must have been recently confirmed for the Chancellor to quote them in his interview on Tuesday night.  

[billybong]

^

Quote

 

“We are not in the business of developing trade policies,” Jackson said. “But we are in the business of honoring the faith and trust that the British people put in us and the instruction to deliver on June 23 around the key red lines, which are: no contribution to the budget; no jurisdiction for the European Court of Justice; the end of free movement; and British laws being made in our sovereign Parliament.”

 

The only "instruction" was to leave the eu.  

He should be careful about putting any more detail on it as expressed in the terms of the electorate's instructions.  There were no red lines such as he mentions in either the referendum question or from memory in the campaigning.  The red lines appear to be the government's ideas since the referendum.

That's not to say that the red lines he mentioned might not be good ones - as starters.  I think that the end of free movement as it turned out to be might have been a better way of putting the 3rd red line - and it might be necessary to completely end free movement if no suitable arrangement can be quickly agreed.

Edited October 5, 2016 by billybong