Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Konig]

7 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

• do remainers think the EU gets better deals for Britain (than Britain negotiating itself) when negotiating trade deals with the 169 countries not in the EU? 
• Say what you like about the British, but we are rampant consumers.  Germany and France know that only too well. Remainers seem to ignore the fact that just because we're leaving the EU, it doesn't mean we stop being consumers.  What of the other 169 countries not in the EU - will they satiate our consuming habits with their imports, should the EU get in a super-huff with the UK and truly stifle trade between the UK/EU? 

On the first point, the difference is that the EU has already negotiated those trade deals that do exist.  Whether the UK could negotiate better deals ignores the void of the 5-10 years it will take to do so.  

Plus we sell most of our goods and services to the EU anyway (the 500m people who happen to be near us, go figure) so its pretty tenuous to assume a slightly better deal with the rest of the world (if it could be achieved) will somehow offset any loss of a decrease in EU exports for 5-10 years post Brexit .

On the second point, yes I believe we will still import loads of stuff, hence our current balance of payments deficit.  But if we are exporting less to the EU that deficit will only increase, wherever those imports come from, unless we export more post Brexit.

Which pretty much brings me back to my original question.  What do Leavers think we the UK will sell more of and to whom post Brexit and why? 

 

[Konig]

6 minutes ago, long time lurking said:

None of us have a crystal ball ,so we will all have to wait,the scaremonger's will continue to speculatively predict economic armageddon ,the brexit side will hope for what they voted for to come to fruition ....only time will tell and time so far has told me everything the doomsters  predicted before the referendum  has failed to materialise bar the fall in the £ 

  

This point was discussed in the thread from earlier - the so called 'doomsters' predicted what will happen to the economy once we actually Brexit, not after we vote Brexit.

And out of interest what did you think the Brexit side voted for?  I have heard so many versions and reasons....  

[Byron]

I lived through the real austerity of the 1940's, not this Corbyn wet dream.

Dad dug up the lawn to plant veg and keep chickens.

So did my wife's parents.

Britain is seriously broken. You English southern lightweights do not understand.

In Wales, we have the Taffia, fascism and social engineering (No English speaking schools in some counties for instance)

Scotland wants to split.

The North of England hates the South.

Nobody cares if things get bad, we who have nothing have nothing to lose.

[pig]

7 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

• do remainers think the EU gets better deals for Britain (than Britain negotiating itself) when negotiating trade deals with the 169 countries not in the EU? 
• Say what you like about the British, but we are rampant consumers.  Germany and France know that only too well. Remainers seem to ignore the fact that just because we're leaving the EU, it doesn't mean we stop being consumers.  What of the other 169 countries not in the EU - will they satiate our consuming habits with their imports, should the EU get in a super-huff with the UK and truly stifle trade between the UK/EU? 

 

Source (ONS)

Our Exports:

United States (17%) 88bn
Germany (8%) £43bn
France (6%) £31bn
Ireland (5%) £28bn
Switzerland (4%) £23bn
China (4%) £19bn ?
Belg/Lux ((4%) sorry bored
Italy (3%)
Spain (3%)

Total Export Europe: 8+6+5+4+4+3+3= 33%

Why the long historical links ? Proximity and language - especially (obviously) the US. Most likely cultural too.

Of course according to Liam Fox its because we are fat lazy and stupid. You know, like politicians.

Quote

 

• France and Germany are large economies and geographically close to the UK
• Germany is an EU manufacturing hub that uses UK components
• There are historical trade links with Ireland, and a common language
• The Netherlands is a global gateway, through the port of Rotterdam, that acts as an intermediate destination for trade between the UK and other countries. This is known as the Rotterdam effect.1It’s also an important financial and business services trading centre

 

So how good is our hand ?

Quote

 

However, the UK, as one of many trading partners, accounts for 4%-5% of all other EU countries’ imports – the other side of the UK’s EU export relationship.

 

Yes thats right - feckin' 4-5%

Lets be generous and take the bigger exporters e.g.
Germany export to UK 7% -  (interpretation: sure play hardball now **** off UK)
France Export to UK 7% - (interpretation: sure play hardball now **** off UK)

 

[long time lurking]

24 minutes ago, Konig said:

This point was discussed in the thread from earlier - the so called 'doomsters' predicted what will happen to the economy once we actually Brexit, not after we vote Brexit.

And out of interest what did you think the Brexit side voted for?  I have heard so many versions and reasons....  

I think the lions share vote was all about immigration personaly i voted to leave to regain our sovereignty first off,with controlling immigration the second point ,and removing the big EU shadow that our politicians all to frequently hid in (we can`t do that it`s against EU rules) ,,,as previously stated i believe we will have the powers to control immigration,but i have serious doubts to whether  the current balance of power in the UK will use those powers to control immigration ,(our economy is as much of a ponzi scheme as our housing market) but over time the ballot box will sort out the latter problem 

I would guess the timing of triggering A50 is all about the next GE ,team blue want to go into their election campaign saying look we have gained control of our borders with no actual data to say immigration has been reduced as the deal will be finalise to close to the election date (another five years in power if team blue wins and it will be this period that they will realy be judged  whether they have done anything about immigration ) 

 

Edited October 5, 2016 by long time lurking

[long time lurking]

12 minutes ago, pig said:

 

Source (ONS)

Our Exports:

United States (17%) 88bn
Germany (8%) £43bn
France (6%) £31bn
Ireland (5%) £28bn
Switzerland (4%) £23bn
China (4%) £19bn ?
Belg/Lux ((4%) sorry bored
Italy (3%)
Spain (3%)

Total Export Europe: 8+6+5+4+4+3+3= 33%

Why the long historical links ? Proximity and language - especially (obviously) the US. Most likely cultural too.

Of course according to Liam Fox its because we are fat lazy and stupid. You know, like politicians.

So how good is our hand ?

Yes thats right - feckin' 4-5%

Lets be generous and take the bigger exporters e.g.
Germany export to UK 7% -  (interpretation: sure play hardball now **** off UK)
France Export to UK 7% - (interpretation: sure play hardball now **** off UK)

 

But are we not Germany`s biggest costumer same as France ?

 

Comparing the the percentage of 27 countries output to the percentage of one countries output is always going to look shit 

Use £ and Euros per country then lets see the real difference 

[Futuroid]

12 minutes ago, pig said:

Yes thats right - feckin' 4-5%

This has been a puzzler since the referendum campaign. How can anyone think we mean will have clout with the EU when it comes to trade?

As you have pointed out the trading relationship we have with the EU is asymmetric - we are such a small part of the EUs (as a whole) trade and they are such a big part of ours. The EU negotiates as the EU - a single entity - and not as individual countries (a fact David Davis was unaware of until one of his advisors informed him AFTER he was appointed "Minister for Brexit").

[Richmond]

13 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

This has been a puzzler since the referendum campaign. How can anyone think we mean will have clout with the EU when it comes to trade?

As you have pointed out the trading relationship we have with the EU is asymmetric - we are such a small part of the EUs (as a whole) trade and they are such a big part of ours. The EU negotiates as the EU - a single entity - and not as individual countries (a fact David Davis was unaware of until one of his advisors informed him AFTER he was appointed "Minister for Brexit").

Yes, but a key question is who can absorb the lost trade better? Both the UK and the EU risk financial impacts and the risks of this are the pretty similar for both. Breakup of the Union. Changes to ruling governments. Maybe strikes and riots if things get really bad. 

So the number is bigger for the UK, but is the EU closer to the edge?

[Peter Hun]

36 minutes ago, pig said:

 

Source (ONS)

Our Exports:

United States (17%) 88bn
Germany (8%) £43bn
France (6%) £31bn
Ireland (5%) £28bn
Switzerland (4%) £23bn
China (4%) £19bn ?
Belg/Lux ((4%) sorry bored
Italy (3%)
Spain (3%)

Total Export Europe: 8+6+5+4+4+3+3= 33%

Why the long historical links ? Proximity and language - especially (obviously) the US. Most likely cultural too.

Of course according to Liam Fox its because we are fat lazy and stupid. You know, like politicians.

So how good is our hand ?

Yes thats right - feckin' 4-5%

Lets be generous and take the bigger exporters e.g.
Germany export to UK 7% -  (interpretation: sure play hardball now **** off UK)
France Export to UK 7% - (interpretation: sure play hardball now **** off UK)

 

As the  FT article makes clear, Brexiters and the EU  members have one thing in  common... the economic arguments are irrelevant.

Saving the EU and Saving the UK is a POLITICAL issue.

So ******ing over each other is a guaranteed and desired result of any negotiations.

This is a war the UK will  lose and it is what the UK voted for 

[Richmond]

13 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

This has been a puzzler since the referendum campaign. How can anyone think we mean will have clout with the EU when it comes to trade?

As you have pointed out the trading relationship we have with the EU is asymmetric - we are such a small part of the EUs (as a whole) trade and they are such a big part of ours. The EU negotiates as the EU - a single entity - and not as individual countries (a fact David Davis was unaware of until one of his advisors informed him AFTER he was appointed "Minister for Brexit").

Yes, but a key question is who can absorb the lost trade better? Both the UK and the EU risk financial impacts and the risks of this are the pretty similar for both. Breakup of the Union. Changes to ruling governments. Maybe strikes and riots if things get really bad. 

So the number is bigger for the UK, but is the EU closer to the edge?

[Richmond]

13 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

This has been a puzzler since the referendum campaign. How can anyone think we mean will have clout with the EU when it comes to trade?

As you have pointed out the trading relationship we have with the EU is asymmetric - we are such a small part of the EUs (as a whole) trade and they are such a big part of ours. The EU negotiates as the EU - a single entity - and not as individual countries (a fact David Davis was unaware of until one of his advisors informed him AFTER he was appointed "Minister for Brexit").

Yes, but a key question is who can absorb the lost trade better? Both the UK and the EU risk financial impacts and the risks of this are the pretty similar for both. Breakup of the Union. Changes to ruling governments. Maybe strikes and riots if things get really bad. 

So the number is bigger for the UK, but is the EU closer to the edge?

[Peter Hun]

2 hours ago, hotairmail said:

Why would we lose access for financial services if the Yanks et al have access?

We may lose Euro clearing and vice versa of course. European bank stuff - but getting out of being shackled to the Euro banking corpse is a major, major plus. May lose some revenue short term, but getting out of risky liabilities is far more important.

The Yanks don't have EU access, which is why they relocated to the EU (London) to get access and spent 10's of billions to do so. Now they will have to move.

[Peter Hun]

56 minutes ago, Byron said:

I lived through the real austerity of the 1940's, not this Corbyn wet dream.

Dad dug up the lawn to plant veg and keep chickens.

So did my wife's parents.

Britain is seriously broken. You English southern lightweights do not understand.

In Wales, we have the Taffia, fascism and social engineering (No English speaking schools in some counties for instance)

Scotland wants to split.

The North of England hates the South.

Nobody cares if things get bad, we who have nothing have nothing to lose.

Yeah. I'm all for taking whatever you do have.

[One-percent]

1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

•  
• Say what you like about the British, but we are rampant consumers.  

Taxpayers' hard working to fund tax credits are responsible for this.  If the state insists on throwing free money at the feckless, they will spend,spend, spend.  

It is only recently that it has been like this.  I, and many others were brought up to live relatively frugally and to live within ones means    

[pig]

35 minutes ago, long time lurking said:

But are we not Germany`s biggest costumer same as France ?

I'll take your word for it. And while I appreciate the rhetorical value of the words, I'm not sure how that helps.

35 minutes ago, long time lurking said:

 

Comparing the the percentage of 27 countries output to the percentage of one countries output is always going to look shit 

Yep. And it all looked shit before the referendum, Looked shit after it. Looked shit throughout the Tory conference. Looked shit all the way through 200 odd pages of this thread. I posted the numbers hoping to accelerate somebody to figure out a way it might not look shit.

35 minutes ago, long time lurking said:

Use £ and Euros per country then lets see the real difference 

Er no. The point of percentages (sorry about the £s) was to try to scale 'value' to each country and hence the strength of the bargaining hands of the negotiating parties. I am sick of the debate going round in meaningless rhetorical circles. Brexit will be real.

[pig]

52 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

This has been a puzzler since the referendum campaign. How can anyone think we mean will have clout with the EU when it comes to trade?

As you have pointed out the trading relationship we have with the EU is asymmetric - we are such a small part of the EUs (as a whole) trade and they are such a big part of ours. The EU negotiates as the EU - a single entity - and not as individual countries (a fact David Davis was unaware of until one of his advisors informed him AFTER he was appointed "Minister for Brexit").

OK I was being a bit theatrical at the end because of the mind-boggling comments on here. But the '3 Brexshiteers' aside, I don't think the UK or the EU wants to be childish about it. Both sides will want to minimise losses even if the impact is disproportionately more catastrophic for the UK. And anyway the UK imploding isn't good for EU or the world economy.

I'm at a bit of a cross-roads with MP's - all-knowing but venal ? Bunch of idiots ? In a way I find Davis ignorance easier to believe than what we have done to housing. 

[Confusion of VIs]

7 hours ago, warpig said:

You're not making any sense. We're not joining a trade block, we're leaving one. The future is bi-lateral trade agreements with the world and as for following the courts of another country or group of countries..? That's the opposite of what's going to happen and sovereignty is absolutely the ONLY thing that matters at this point. You seem to have an upside down back to front view of Britain's future.

BREXIT was about taking control of Britain, albeit borders, our armed forces, immigration, our courts and our trade. Anything else is ********.

 

 

If you haven't realised after all the posts on here that our only realistic option is joining another trade block EEA or WTO and that bilaterals can only happen providing both parties adhere to the rules of their chosen trade bloc, I cannot be bothered arguing with you any more. 

What you or anyone else thinks BREXIT means has to take account of those trade rules, otherwise BREXIT is just ********* 

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

• do remainers think the EU gets better deals for Britain (than Britain negotiating itself) when negotiating trade deals with the 169 countries not in the EU? 
• Say what you like about the British, but we are rampant consumers.  Germany and France know that only too well. Remainers seem to ignore the fact that just because we're leaving the EU, it doesn't mean we stop being consumers.  What of the other 169 countries not in the EU - will they satiate our consuming habits with their imports, should the EU get in a super-huff with the UK and truly stifle trade between the UK/EU? 

Looking at the big picture, we can only continue to be rampant consumers if foreigners keep investing enough in the UK to offset our consumer habit. They invest in the UK mainly because we are the English speaking gateway into Europe, have a respected legal system and pretty liberal employment laws. Once we leave the EU they will need to find a new gateway and we will need to learn to live within our means.    

[pig]

1 hour ago, Richmond said:

Yes, but a key question is who can absorb the lost trade better? Both the UK and the EU risk financial impacts and the risks of this are the pretty similar for both. Breakup of the Union. Changes to ruling governments. Maybe strikes and riots if things get really bad. 

So the number is bigger for the UK, but is the EU closer to the edge?

That is an interesting question not easily answered by numbers.

I guess cannibalising our business  - City of London, perhaps France making components for Germany instead, companies relocating etc etc will ameliorate things somewhat for the EU ?

On the other hand maybe there is something in us carrying on like lunatics and spooking them into a better deal than we would have otherwise. Long story, but an acquaintance of mine behaved disgracefully in a restaurant once and basically ended up with a free meal to shut him up (all though to be fair he did end up getting physically thrown out of a club later). 

Edit: or maybe the free meal part of the analogy was when we were in the EU.

Edited October 5, 2016 by pig

[One-percent]

1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Looking at the big picture, we can only continue to be rampant consumers....

Well, let's not be rampant consumers then. We don't need the latest crapple product, new car, fur coat, whatever. Sheeple have been conditioned to chase after each and every new shiny bauble. Make do and mend (said from iPad)  

[Confusion of VIs]

5 hours ago, onlyme2 said:

There's arguably only one country in europe that is calling the shots and it has the most to lose if sensible trade negotiations cannot be established.

The PM of Malta can bluster and say the EU will treat us like Greece but if they do the likely shitstorm to follow will be a sight to behold. 

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/uks-brexit-negotiating-hand-stronger-think/?

 

That's the argument I made much earlier for thinking that Germany will do  everything possible to push through a deal on FoM that keeps us in the EU. However, that only strengthens our hand if we are prepared to do the deal. If we are going to leave whatever we have no leverage.

If we do leave the Germans will be happy to agree to zero tariffs on goods, so that part of the article is a bit pointless. The hit to the UK will come in a reduction of sales of our services, which are not protected by the WTO rules.    

[Confusion of VIs]

14 minutes ago, One-percent said:

Well, let's not be rampant consumers then. We don't need the latest crapple product, new car, fur coat, whatever. Sheeple have been conditioned to chase after each and every new shiny bauble. Make do and mend (said from iPad)  

But we like being rampant consumers and we will get very upset if we have to stop.

[One-percent]

1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

But we like being rampant consumers and we will get very upset if we have to stop.

Who is this we you speak of? It's is dead easy to get sucked into it, but us on here are a bit bright like and can see through the nonsense. 

Ah, you mean the X factor and strictly mob. All hope lost then. 

[Sheeple Splinter]

Apologies if this has been posted already:

Quote

Hungary warning as fellow nations' backing threatens to tear EU apart.

...

Hungarian Government Spokesperson Zoltán Kovács said the Visegrad countries, as well as Austria, are on their side revealing deepening rifts between the 28 member states.

He said: “The Hungarian standpoint on the mandatory quotas has been the most consistent in the EU. 

“We believe that even the conversation on any quota system is dangerous, let alone a mandatory quota system with no upper limits on the numbers. 

...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717058/Hungary-warning-threatens-EU-Referendum-results-Union-Visegrad-4

[workingpoor]

10 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Apologies if this has been posted already:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717058/Hungary-warning-threatens-EU-Referendum-results-Union-Visegrad-4

Tick....tock...