Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[workingpoor]

The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for UK economic growth next year as it warned that the global recovery remains "weak and precarious".

Although the IMF raised its prediction for UK GDP growth this year to 1.8%, the figure for 2017 was cut to 1.1%.

Its assumptions are based on "smooth post-Brexit negotiations and a limited increase in economic barriers".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37552076

More "Softening up" 

Edited October 4, 2016 by workingpoor

[ccc]

Quite pathetic really.

[workingpoor]

Setting the stage for the Betrayal:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/717509/Conservative-Party-conference-2016-Brexit-David-Davis-work-permits-British-workers-first?_ga=1.52984237.489036091.1475452369

The former shadow home secretary, who was appointed by Theresa May to oversee the Government’s preparations for Brexit, claimed there would not be an “immediate” reduction in near-record levels of immigration once Britain leaves the EU.

He said: “You have heard in turn from both Theresa and [Home Secretary] Amber Rudd that we’ll bring numbers down but it won’t be immediate.

“Why won’t it be immediate? In theory the day after we leave we’ll be able to go ‘click’ and it will come down.

“But that won’t happen because the aim is to run immigration policy so it’s in the national interest and the economic interest and the social interest.”

Mr Davis said he did not envisage “any restraint” on high-skilled workers coming to the country after Brexit, while he suggested there could be “seasonal” controls for low-skilled foreign workers.

In conversation with LBC Radio host Iain Dale, Mr Davis added: “The other side of this whole coin is we have to make sure that our own population are ready and equipped to work.

“Whether it’s low-skilled workers - and that’s about motivation and commitment to work - if it’s higher-skilled it’s about education.

“Which is why the other part of Theresa’s concerns about society are very important in the context.

“But at the end of the day nobody is going to have an off-switch pulled.”

Get picking those spuds!

Edited October 4, 2016 by workingpoor

[Futuroid]

34 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

 

Amber Rudd "British jobs for british workers - go and pick spuds"

Do you seriously see big business investing in training

 

The low quality courses are not really accessed by europeans (it's usually rest of world students who go to those mickey mouse colleges and then work cash in hand in the local halal fried chicken shop), but it panders to the right of the party

Based on what I've seen in corporate IT over the last 20 years, any job that can be done overseas will be done overseas. 

The stuff that absolutely has to be done "on the ground" (like picking spuds or strawberries) will either be automated - if a solution is possible / financially viable - or dropped unless it's "mission critical". A good example is farming - if it's not economic to pick strawberries using British labour, they will simply end up growing less fruit and more of something else that can be harvested without the need for much labour.

The problem in the UK is the cost of living. Since they are going to be trying to keep that high by not addressing the deep issues with the housing market, there is a limit how cheaply a Brit will work. If they can't compete with imported product (which will still be coming in, albeit with a tariff) they simply move on to something else.

End result, UK exchequer loses the payroll tax, no new jobs are created (some are destroyed).

[Confusion of VIs]

6 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

The $'s worthless bog paper....much like the £££

But you have to put it somewhere bog paper or not. Euro seems to be the most widely recommended at the moment, which I suppose says something about how f**ked up everywhere is.

 

[kzb]

16 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I only caught the end of Newsnight, and didn't see the quoted interview but apparently Philip Hammond had said in interview that the central treasury forecast is that Brexit will leave the UK permanently around 4% poorer.   Even worse, this is the case that assumes we get a good exit deal with the numbers for a hard Brexit being 6-8% poorer.

 

 

 

 

Newsnight last night (Monday) was shocking.  Evan Davis said we were about to do something "patently bonkers".  There were four commentators on the Tory conference, every one of them a remainer.  The remain bias was just beyond the pale last night.  For the second time I have to question Evan's suitability for this position.  He's not a commentator, he's meant to be balanced.

However, I can confirm those figures were indeed reported.  But let's face it they do not know what is going to happen tomorrow let alone several years in the future. 

[kzb]

5 hours ago, knock out johnny said:

Didn't know where to post, but this is as good a spot as any

 

In Iceland, (the shop) bag of frozen spinach up overnight 30% from £1 to £1.29

Same across the rest of the frozen ve

 

I'm not necessarily blaming this on brexit, but trashing the £ probably doesn't help

Personally I'm surprised how little inflation we've seen with the devaluation.  Sugar 39p/kg in Farmfoods, when did you last see that?

Prices in Aldi (German of course) have remained stable or even reduced a bit.

With your Iceland spinach, well all supermarkets play games with yo-yo prices these days.  They've put spinach up so they can put a special offer on something else.  Shop around you will find it cheaper.

[Confusion of VIs]

23 minutes ago, workingpoor said:

Setting the stage for the Betrayal:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/717509/Conservative-Party-conference-2016-Brexit-David-Davis-work-permits-British-workers-first?_ga=1.52984237.489036091.1475452369

The former shadow home secretary, who was appointed by Theresa May to oversee the Government’s preparations for Brexit, claimed there would not be an “immediate” reduction in near-record levels of immigration once Britain leaves the EU.

He said: “You have heard in turn from both Theresa and [Home Secretary] Amber Rudd that we’ll bring numbers down but it won’t be immediate.

“Why won’t it be immediate? In theory the day after we leave we’ll be able to go ‘click’ and it will come down.

“But that won’t happen because the aim is to run immigration policy so it’s in the national interest and the economic interest and the social interest.”

Mr Davis said he did not envisage “any restraint” on high-skilled workers coming to the country after Brexit, while he suggested there could be “seasonal” controls for low-skilled foreign workers.

In conversation with LBC Radio host Iain Dale, Mr Davis added: “The other side of this whole coin is we have to make sure that our own population are ready and equipped to work.

“Whether it’s low-skilled workers - and that’s about motivation and commitment to work - if it’s higher-skilled it’s about education.

“Which is why the other part of Theresa’s concerns about society are very important in the context.

“But at the end of the day nobody is going to have an off-switch pulled.”

Get picking those spuds!

Trying hard to resist the temptation to say "told you so" to the believers on here.

The Daily Politics at lunchtime had Andrew Neil interviewing Damian Green about the conservatives immigration policy.  Watching Green try to defend the policy, or more accurately non policy, was quite amusing with Neil asking how Boris wanting to let in more Australians, Hammond more bankers/IT/Finance staff and Sajid Javid  more construction/agricultural workers was consistent with bringing down immigration.  

[knock out johnny]

36 minutes ago, kzb said:

Personally I'm surprised how little inflation we've seen with the devaluation.  Sugar 39p/kg in Farmfoods, when did you last see that?

Prices in Aldi (German of course) have remained stable or even reduced a bit.

With your Iceland spinach, well all supermarkets play games with yo-yo prices these days.  They've put spinach up so they can put a special offer on something else.  Shop around you will find it cheaper.

 

If it was Sainsburys I'd agree with you but I do a lot of food shopping in Iceland and they don't fck about with prices - that's why I mention it. That 30% increase will stick

[workingpoor]

1 minute ago, knock out johnny said:

 

If it was Sainsburys I'd agree with you but I do a lot of food shopping in Iceland and they don't fck about with prices - that's why I mention it. That 30% increase will stick

Seasonal 

It will stick untill the season turns again.

Carrots & Parsnips get dearer this time of year.

[Futuroid]

52 minutes ago, workingpoor said:

Setting the stage for the Betrayal:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/717509/Conservative-Party-conference-2016-Brexit-David-Davis-work-permits-British-workers-first?_ga=1.52984237.489036091.1475452369

“But that won’t happen because the aim is to run immigration policy so it’s in the national interest and the economic interest and the social interest.”

Mr Davis said he did not envisage “any restraint” on high-skilled workers coming to the country after Brexit, while he suggested there could be “seasonal” controls for low-skilled foreign workers.

Get picking those spuds!

Brexit means Brexit... and "season controls" for seasonal workers 

I guess they will start getting the pickers from outside the EU - plenty of even cheaper workers available in Turkey these days who will be only too happy to come and pick British fruit and spuds, etc.

There are plenty of sharp IT brains in Russia as well - that would keep a lid on expensive salaries in the UK. And all with none of those pesky EU regulations giving workers rights and whatnot, this could be a neoliberal checkmate on the indigenous British worker!

 

[Venger]

8 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

This piece in the FT sets out the risks and the reasons we are unlikely to get a good deal from the EU pretty well.

https://www.ft.com/content/7b78f276-8940-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1  (or Google Theresa May walks into)

Yes - thanks.  That.

Whoever controls the options has the power.

At times I feel like it's a mirror to one of the dreadful threads I've read on BTL forums, where the BTLers involved are (have been till lately) convinced they're better off with their high-leverage big portfolio positions, 'because it makes a lender less likely to repo and realise losses.'   That the lender needs them to have a mutually beneficial relationship.  Fantasy world.

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

Newsnight last night (Monday) was shocking.  Evan Davis said we were about to do something "patently bonkers".  There were four commentators on the Tory conference, every one of them a remainer.  The remain bias was just beyond the pale last night.  For the second time I have to question Evan's suitability for this position.  He's not a commentator, he's meant to be balanced.

However, I can confirm those figures were indeed reported.  But let's face it they do not know what is going to happen tomorrow let alone several years in the future. 

You are not the only one:

Quote

NEWSNIGHT viewers have accused the programme of adopting a pro-EU stance after it appeared to use a panel of Remain voters to discuss Brexit

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/717291/Newsnight-European-Union-BBC-bias-Twitter-Evan-Davis-Heidi-Allen-Reamin-Brexit

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

2 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Based on what I've seen in corporate IT over the last 20 years, any job that can be done overseas will be done overseas. 

The stuff that absolutely has to be done "on the ground" (like picking spuds or strawberries) will either be automated - if a solution is possible / financially viable - or dropped unless it's "mission critical". A good example is farming - if it's not economic to pick strawberries using British labour, they will simply end up growing less fruit and more of something else that can be harvested without the need for much labour.

The problem in the UK is the cost of living. Since they are going to be trying to keep that high by not addressing the deep issues with the housing market, there is a limit how cheaply a Brit will work. If they can't compete with imported product (which will still be coming in, albeit with a tariff) they simply move on to something else.

End result, UK exchequer loses the payroll tax, no new jobs are created (some are destroyed).

+1

[GreenDevil]

I doubt anyone watches BBC political programs anymore. The BBC are still thinking 'Cool Britannia' ...

[pig]

Happens in football too: Failing managers start blaming a conspiracy of referees. Then the meme spreads among the fans.

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Trying hard to resist the temptation to say "told you so" to the believers on here.

The Daily Politics at lunchtime had Andrew Neil interviewing Damian Green about the conservatives immigration policy.  Watching Green try to defend the policy, or more accurately non policy, was quite amusing with Neil asking how Boris wanting to let in more Australians, Hammond more bankers/IT/Finance staff and Sajid Javid  more construction/agricultural workers was consistent with bringing down immigration.  

Come on, tell me, I'm a believer until the day I don't believe. 

I believe UK will have controlled immigration based on skills and humanitarian criteria.

[Confusion of VIs]

11 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

You are not the only one:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/717291/Newsnight-European-Union-BBC-bias-Twitter-Evan-Davis-Heidi-Allen-Reamin-Brexit

 

The BBC gas been heavily criticised for equating balance with having to give equal airtime to both sides of the argument, even when one side is supported by the weight of expert opinion and the other composed of fruitcakes and chancers out to make a quick buck - think of the MMR vaccination "scandal" that never was, GM foods or more recently Fracking.

At the moment almost all economists think that Brexit will leave the UK permanently poorer, including the HM Treasury and the Chancellor. The figures quoted last night were at least as bad as those quoted by Osborne and labelled project fear. What were the BBC expected to do ignore this and join in with the vacuous delusional lines being spouted in the conference speeches.

I suspect the reason there was a line up of Remainers was that they couldn't get any Brexiteers to come on, and if you saw Damian Green being monstered by Andrew Neil today you can see why keeping your head down is a sensible choice at the moment.

[SpectrumFX]

2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The BBC gas been heavily criticised for equating balance with having to give equal airtime to both sides of the argument, even when one side is supported by the weight of expert opinion and the other composed of fruitcakes and chancers out to make a quick buck - think of the MMR vaccination "scandal" that never was, GM foods or more recently Fracking.

At the moment almost all economists think that Brexit will leave the UK permanently poorer, including the HM Treasury and the Chancellor. The figures quoted last night were at least as bad as those quoted by Osborne and labelled project fear. What were the BBC expected to do ignore this and join in with the vacuous delusional lines being spouted in the conference speeches.

I suspect the reason there was a line up of Remainers was that they couldn't get any Brexiteers to come on, and if you saw Damian Green being monstered by Andrew Neil today you can see why keeping your head down is a sensible choice at the moment.

Aren't most economists fruitcakes and chancers out to make a quick buck?

[Confusion of VIs]

2 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Aren't most economists fruitcakes and chancers out to make a quick buck?

That could be a slight flaw in my argument

[Sheeple Splinter]

58 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The BBC gas been heavily criticised for equating balance with having to give equal airtime to both sides of the argument, even when one side is supported by the weight of expert opinion and the other composed of fruitcakes and chancers out to make a quick buck - think of the MMR vaccination "scandal" that never was, GM foods or more recently Fracking.

At the moment almost all economists think that Brexit will leave the UK permanently poorer, including the HM Treasury and the Chancellor. The figures quoted last night were at least as bad as those quoted by Osborne and labelled project fear. What were the BBC expected to do ignore this and join in with the vacuous delusional lines being spouted in the conference speeches.

I suspect the reason there was a line up of Remainers was that they couldn't get any Brexiteers to come on, and if you saw Damian Green being monstered by Andrew Neil today you can see why keeping your head down is a sensible choice at the moment.

Would that include IMF & OECD? 

Looking for Andrew on the iplayer...

Agreed, not a good performance by DG but he is with DWP and looking at the larger picture:

Quote

There is a major squeeze on public spending and welfare payments still to come over the next five years as a result of government decisions already taken – including the filleting of almost £9bn from the tax credit and working age benefits bill.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/damian-green-theresa-may-austerity-brexit-more-cuts-a7318801.html

Edited October 4, 2016 by Sheeple Splinter
Text and link added.

[pig]

19 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

I doubt anyone watches BBC political programs anymore. The BBC are still thinking 'Cool Britannia' ...

Yes but the irony is I probably wouldn't have watched it if I wasn't (correctly) suspicous that kzb was telling a bit of a whopper. To continue the football analogy, BBC 2, Tory/Murdoch Ministry of Truth 0.

[Byron]

Well it is high time that benefits were ruthlessly slashed.

In my own family,

One sister in law, first child at 15, her daughter, first child at 16, and her grand daughter first child at 14,

That means, a Great Gran in her sixties, Gran in her 40's Mum in her 20's, three young children in care.

(along the way there were other children, one died of drugs, one became a nurse.)

I have two other sisters and one brother in law, all with huge families.

Of about 20 people of various generations, my brother in-law worked for about 5 years, my niece is a hard working nurse.

None of the others have contributed sod all to society.

They all have  council houses, live a life on benefits and to them, it is normal not to work.

THIS IS SOCIALISM AT WORK!!

But if you try to do anything about it, you will get the SJW air heads on your back, 'concerned' lightweight London and Southern Counties lefty, clueless dip shats , Corbyn the idiot whinging on about 'Savage Tory cuts'

[Crumbless]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/04/diane-james-quits-as-ukip-leader-after-just-18-days-as-successor/

UKIP disintegrate  - Diane James quits.

[billybong]

4 hours ago, workingpoor said:

Setting the stage for the Betrayal:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/717509/Conservative-Party-conference-2016-Brexit-David-Davis-work-permits-British-workers-first?_ga=1.52984237.489036091.1475452369

The former shadow home secretary, who was appointed by Theresa May to oversee the Government’s preparations for Brexit, claimed there would not be an “immediate” reduction in near-record levels of immigration once Britain leaves the EU.

He said: “You have heard in turn from both Theresa and [Home Secretary] Amber Rudd that we’ll bring numbers down but it won’t be immediate.

“Why won’t it be immediate? In theory the day after we leave we’ll be able to go ‘click’ and it will come down.

“But that won’t happen because the aim is to run immigration policy so it’s in the national interest and the economic interest and the social interest.”

Mr Davis said he did not envisage “any restraint” on high-skilled workers coming to the country after Brexit, while he suggested there could be “seasonal” controls for low-skilled foreign workers.

In conversation with LBC Radio host Iain Dale, Mr Davis added: “The other side of this whole coin is we have to make sure that our own population are ready and equipped to work.

“Whether it’s low-skilled workers - and that’s about motivation and commitment to work - if it’s higher-skilled it’s about education.

“Which is why the other part of Theresa’s concerns about society are very important in the context.

“But at the end of the day nobody is going to have an off-switch pulled.”

Get picking those spuds!

One hopes they aren't going to forget the tens of thousands commitment.

That was a 2015 election manifesto commitment and of course they've reneged on it so far and by record amounts - justifying the reneging on eu rules that they can't do anything about.  It was a Conservative party commitment not just a Cameron commitment.  

To renege on it after leaving the eu jurisdiction would be beyond treachery as well as being the height of mendacity, crookedness and double-dealing.

Edited October 4, 2016 by billybong