Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[SpectrumFX]

3 hours ago, Konig said:

I have asked this question twice before now, with still no credible answer from the Leave side, which is what will be our basic economic model post Brexit?

Half the leavers on here seem to simply state over and over various versions of Boris' 'they sell us loads of cars and cheese and wine so they are fcked if the play hard ball', so no economic pain at all.  The other half seem to chant 'no pain, no gain, taking a hit for 5-10 years is worth it so we get 'control''.

The reality of the single market is that about 50% of UK exports go to an area that happens to 1) be geographically close to us, 2) has 500m odd consumers, and 3) the single market gives us preferential access to them.  Of course the EU also export to us - about 10% of their total.

Pretty clear who has most to lose from them playing hard ball.

And it is the EU's choice whether to play hard ball on access to the single market - not ours - that's article 50 for you. 

But it don't matter because Nissan will still invest here and we will ship those cars to Oz instead?  But it don't matter because the City will sell financial services to West Africa?  But it don't matter as we will make things cheaper than China, and at the same time our wages will grow because those pesky east europeans are no longer taking our jobs on lower wages (how does that work, exactly?).

    

 

 

What was our basic economic policy pre-brexit, other than an unsustainable Ponzi? The EU's economic policy is to continue with a failed currency union until the wheels come off. 

We need to rebalance the economy and have an actual industrial policy other than "****** industry".  

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

EU grateful for Brexit catalyst to their trade negotiations:

Quote

Brexit revives stalled Japan-EU trade deal

...

Negotiations appeared dead at the end of last year, with frustrated European officials accusing Tokyo of refusing to open its food market to products such as chocolates and tomatoes — sectors in which Japan has no self interest but that serve as leverage for talks over cars.

The mood has shifted at this week’s talks over what would be the EU’s biggest free trade deal. In a sign of Japan’s desire to push for a deal, it has sent over a director general-level heavyweight to try to nail down an agreement over data flows and privacy. European Commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen visited Tokyo last week and expressed hope that trade talks would be concluded this year. He called the deal “very important” to the EU.

...

EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström has also stressed the need to make a broader effort to stimulate global trade, which is growing at its weakest levels since the financial crisis in 2009. World Trade Organization Director General Roberto Azevêdo warned early Tuesday that this slowdown “is serious and should serve as a wake-up call” and is “particularly concerning in the context of growing anti-globalization sentiment.”

...

http://www.politico.eu/article/japan-eu-trade-deal-brexit-auto-industry/

[Sheeple Splinter]

3 hours ago, Konig said:

I have asked this question twice before now, with still no credible answer from the Leave side, which is what will be our basic economic model post Brexit?

Half the leavers on here seem to simply state over and over various versions of Boris' 'they sell us loads of cars and cheese and wine so they are fcked if the play hard ball', so no economic pain at all.  The other half seem to chant 'no pain, no gain, taking a hit for 5-10 years is worth it so we get 'control''.

The reality of the single market is that about 50% of UK exports go to an area that happens to 1) be geographically close to us, 2) has 500m odd consumers, and 3) the single market gives us preferential access to them.  Of course the EU also export to us - about 10% of their total.

Pretty clear who has most to lose from them playing hard ball.

And it is the EU's choice whether to play hard ball on access to the single market - not ours - that's article 50 for you. 

But it don't matter because Nissan will still invest here and we will ship those cars to Oz instead?  But it don't matter because the City will sell financial services to West Africa?  But it don't matter as we will make things cheaper than China, and at the same time our wages will grow because those pesky east europeans are no longer taking our jobs on lower wages (how does that work, exactly?).

Would you mind replying to my response to your second time of asking? I don't recognise it in your summary of responses.  

 

[SpectrumFX]

2 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Would you mind replying to my response to your second time of asking? I don't recognise it in your summary of responses.  

 

I think he's gone "no true Scotsman". No response is credible in his mind, so he's just going to keep saying the same thing over and over again while refusing engage with our responses. Hey ho, I suppose everybody needs a hobby

[pig]

13 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Would you mind replying to my response to your second time of asking? I don't recognise it in your summary of responses.  

 

Cool - where is your response ?

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, hotairmail said:

Our financial services sector is too big. It is a legacy from when we had a huge manufacturing market share and a global Empire. Without a healthy hinterland it is pushed into dodgier and dodgier fringesvof business and practices. It is hard, but sometimes something has to die a little to allow other things to flourish, releasing nutrients such as cash and talent and space.

Services wrapped around material trade is far better than services on their own. The latter is like writing naked options.

I am not sure I follow the logic of your argument, why cannot pure financial services be a sustainable business. That aside, there is no obvious linkage between shrinking our financial services sector and growing the manufacturing sector. On the contrary, it seems more likely that the loss of income/taxes from the most productive sector of the economy would create a headwind that would lead to further shrinkage of the other sectors.  

[Sheeple Splinter]

4 minutes ago, pig said:

Cool - where is your response ?

Can't remember, I did go back over the pages to no avail but then thought K could respond and take it from there. 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, One-percent said:

Who is this we you speak of? It's is dead easy to get sucked into it, but us on here are a bit bright like and can see through the nonsense. 

Ah, you mean the X factor and strictly mob. All hope lost then. 

Them obviously but quite a few of the rest of us as well.

I think it might be an age thing, I was a lunatic spender in my 20s, less so in my 30s and 40s and now cannot be bothered replacing anything, from underpants to cars until they have completely fallen apart.    

[Sheeple Splinter]

20 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I think he's gone "no true Scotsman". No response is credible in his mind, so he's just going to keep saying the same thing over and over again while refusing engage with our responses. Hey ho, I suppose everybody needs a hobby

Love this site; had to look no true scotsman up:

Quote

No true Scotsman is an informal fallacy, an ad hoc attempt to retain an unreasoned assertion.[1] When faced with a counterexample to a universal claim ("no Scotsman would do such a thing"), rather than denying the counterexample or rejecting the original claim, this fallacy modifies the subject of the assertion to exclude the specific case or others like it by rhetoric, without reference to any specific objective rule ("no true Scotsman would do such a thing"; i.e., those who perform that action are not part of our group and thus criticism of that action is not criticism of the group).[2]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman

 

Thank you.

[Futuroid]

10 hours ago, Richmond said:

Yes, but a key question is who can absorb the lost trade better? Both the UK and the EU risk financial impacts and the risks of this are the pretty similar for both. Breakup of the Union. Changes to ruling governments. Maybe strikes and riots if things get really bad. 

So the number is bigger for the UK, but is the EU closer to the edge?

Is the EU closer to the edge? The edge of what exactly?

Oh silly me, of course, total collapse and dissolution when a few EE countries get a bit shirty about taking their share of refugees. As net beneficiaries of the EU, they will be quickly be invited to use the exit door still warm from the UK and the EU will be all the stronger because of it!

Are you seriously suggesting it will be harder for the EU to accept tariffs on 10% of its exports vs the UK accepting tariffs on almost half of ours?

Also, the tariffs (and quotas, let's not forget them*) on some goods are higher than others. Cars for example run at 10% until WTO rules, effectively destroying the competitiveness of the UK car industry overnight.

* = the main reason Nissan built it's plant in Sunderland was quotas. Japan was hitting the EU quota limit for imports of motor vehicles from a single country, to get around this limit they built a factory inside the EU - i.e. in the UK. There are still EU import quotas for motor vehicles and other goods in effect.

[Futuroid]

9 hours ago, hotairmail said:

Our financial services sector is too big. It is a legacy from when we had a huge manufacturing market share and a global Empire. Without a healthy hinterland it is pushed into dodgier and dodgier fringesvof business and practices. It is hard, but sometimes something has to die a little to allow other things to flourish, releasing nutrients such as cash and talent and space.

Services wrapped around material trade is far better than services on their own. The latter is like writing naked options.

 

 

Agreed - the UK is over dependent upon financial services. The solution however is probably not to crush them to nothing in a 3-5 year time window with nothing to replace them (N.B. I am not an expert so my advice is gospel using the "Gove scale").

The problem with leaving the customs union and single market is that it doesn't just affect financial services. It will also have a huge impact on manufacturing and services (engineering, science, IT) of all types. So at the same time as financial services go down the pan we also hobble the very things we would want to replace them with. Pure. Genius.

IIRC, I think the Tories were going to rebalance the economy... do remind me how that went again?

[Futuroid]

Ooops, looks like that trade deal with our second biggest trading partner might take a bit longer than Boris planned:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-us-not-happen-fast-theresa-villiers-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-a7345581.html

Just thinking about this, imagine how disruptive it would be if we have a change of government slap bank in the middle of negotiating trade deals with World+dog?

Aha, but of course, we can trade under WTO rules... as long as we manage to join the WTO in our own right after leaving the EU that is. 

[Futuroid]

10 hours ago, pig said:

I'm at a bit of a cross-roads with MP's - all-knowing but venal ? Bunch of idiots ? In a way I find Davis ignorance easier to believe than what we have done to housing. 

I think attempting to look after their own interests when it comes to housing / land / etc, but by and large incompetent with no understanding of how the world works.

Many of the current crop have not held jobs, run businesses (or even "estates" as MPs of yesteryear had generally done). Look at fatty Fox as a prime example - a superannuated chubster tells a bunch of businessmen they are fat and lazy and would rather be on the golf course than exporting. All this from a man who has been expensing trips around the world with his "special friend", is carrying extra pounds himself and takes 110 days holiday a year!

[Futuroid]

11 hours ago, long time lurking said:

But are we not Germany`s biggest costumer same as France ?

No, we are the third largest export market for Germany. Behind France and the USA. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Germany

In fact, the UK (pop 65 million) only takes a fraction more of their exports than the Netherlands (pop. 17 million)!

We are the fifth biggest market for France.

[FrenchLondon]

54 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

No, we are the third largest export market for Germany. Behind France and the USA. 

 May stated on Friday that the procedure will now start before German elections. This is quite a change on the agenda! 

There must have been some clashes behind the scene. After all, diplomates commented about Merkel losing support in population - May will obviously take advantage of this weakness.

[Riedquat]

11 hours ago, One-percent said:

Well, let's not be rampant consumers then. We don't need the latest crapple product, new car, fur coat, whatever. Sheeple have been conditioned to chase after each and every new shiny bauble. Make do and mend (said from iPad)  

I wish, but I've not got a clue as to what it'll take to break that atttitude and get people to wake up to what really matters (and the finally seeing what they've done to the country in order to support rampant consumerism will drive them right back into it, for escapism). And it'll never get past the "it's good for the economy" people. Why else do you think I keep going on about how broken the whole economic system is? We need to spend lots of time, effort, and resources in producing stuff we've no need of whatsoever in order to provide the stuff we actually need, not because it ties into any real physical requirements but just because of the economic system we've embraced. Jobs exist for their own sake rather than because they do stuff we need (or even want), money being regarded as a resource instead of a means to measure and manage resources, it goes on.

[One-percent]

4 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

I wish, but I've not got a clue as to what it'll take to break that atttitude and get people to wake up to what really matters (and the finally seeing what they've done to the country in order to support rampant consumerism will drive them right back into it, for escapism). And it'll never get past the "it's good for the economy" people. Why else do you think I keep going on about how broken the whole economic system is? We need to spend lots of time, effort, and resources in producing stuff we've no need of whatsoever in order to provide the stuff we actually need, not because it ties into any real physical requirements but just because of the economic system we've embraced. Jobs exist for their own sake rather than because they do stuff we need (or even want), money being regarded as a resource instead of a means to measure and manage resources, it goes on.

The first step would be to remove the mad in work credits. This would then mean that individuals could only spend what they had actually grafted for and would be made to appreciate the real value/cost of the pound in their pocket

[Futuroid]

4 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

So yes, shrinkage of the fs sector is an unexpected benefit to come out of Brexit potentially.

And what - pray tell - will fill the gap left by the shrinkage?

[evetsm]

Financial services are middle men, they derive their income at the expense of the parties on either ends, on so many levels. Not least, under the system of loans that they create out of thin air, they destroy the capital of the producers, decimate savers, decrease productivity, destroy pensions and relentlessly drive rates lower and the money supply higher. The financial sector as currently constituted is a parasite. 

Anyone who thinks this sector is benign, can exist alone or is even a virtue has not paid attention. 

[Riedquat]

2 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Agreed - the UK is over dependent upon financial services. The solution however is probably not to crush them to nothing in a 3-5 year time window with nothing to replace them (N.B. I am not an expert so my advice is gospel using the "Gove scale").

Unfortunately the reality seems to be "no change or rapid change", when a gradual weaning off would be better. But these things never happen without being forced, and being forced means happening quickly. In any case people don't have the patience for gradual change - look how many Remain arguments essentially boil down to short-termism ("It'll take years of negotiation to sort things out if we leave").

[Riedquat]

36 minutes ago, One-percent said:

The first step would be to remove the mad in work credits. This would then mean that individuals could only spend what they had actually grafted for and would be made to appreciate the real value/cost of the pound in their pocket

No argument about needing to remove all sorts of things like that (easy access to credit for trivial things definitely needs to stop), but don't expect people to do anything other than completely ruin themselves, no doubt with collateral damage to the more responsible (although it's not as if we haven't had plenty of that already). Still, I've just argued against short-termism...

[Confusion of VIs]

15 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

I think you fail fundamentally to grasp the big picture.

Financial srvices cannot possibly exist in a vacuum in the long run.

And without long term relationships working alongside manufacturers or adventurers etc. i.e. supporting the capitalistic activity of making us all wealthy, it is driven to skimming and scamming. And that is exactly where we are now. Losing that is of no great loss - its inevitable bailouts from time to time have dwarfed any tax and trade benefits it may have temporarily boost to those accounts. Sacking well educated people who are drawn to the heart of this monster parasite (like yourself no doubt) would of course cause some upset, but would then force talented people into thinking of doing something worthwhile.

Apart from anything, a large financial services sector requires a country with a large and strong government to back it. Ours is outsized for our government, especially now it is holed under the water line by the bailouts of RBS et al.

So yes, shrinkage of the fs sector is an unexpected benefit to come out of Brexit potentially.

 

   

 

 

I don't understand your concept of a vacuum, as the world gets evermore connected why does it matter where the FS are provided from or where the manufacturing takes place. It is the concept of too big to fail that needs to be tackled not the location of the service provider. Also do you think that with the possibility of simultaneous HPC and Brexit led recessions happening any government would voluntarily give the economy another kick by trying to downsize the FS sector. 

BTW I have always been working in IT. Only 11 years of that in FS. 

[Riedquat]

23 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I don't understand your concept of a vacuum, as the world gets evermore connected why does it matter where the FS are provided from or where the manufacturing takes place.  It is the concept of too big to fail that needs to be tackled not the location of the service provider.

The world getting ever more connected is a big part of the problem that needs fixing. It encourages marginalising everything that can't get itself into the "too big to fail" category, only the largest (and most impersonal) can survive, you end up with the absurd result of essentially arbitrary factors dominating over real ones, it massively accelerates the consumption of resources, and destroys societies. By enabling the services to become so disconnected from the real work that whose gears they are supposed to be oiling they start believing that they're the machine themselves and just become a self-serving drain that games the system.

[rollover]

Angela Merkel takes tougher line on Brexit negotiations

The German Chancellor said Britain can only keep full access to the trading bloc by continuing to allow free movement of people. She added that negotiations between the EU and Britain won't be easy and said they will need to make clear what access each side has to the other side's market. Ms Merkel said no exception to the EU’s four freedoms, which include free movement of people, goods capital and services, can be made.

France’s finance minister Michel Sapin said the UK’s long wait before triggering Article 50 was a sign the British government was preparing for tough negotiations that could risk a “hard Brexit” not in Britain’s interests.  He added: “If there is a country that has something to lose from tough negotiations with dire consequences - what's called ‘hard Brexit’ - it's Britain.”

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

The world getting ever more connected is a big part of the problem that needs fixing. It encourages marginalising everything that can't get itself into the "too big to fail" category, only the largest (and most impersonal) can survive, you end up with the absurd result of essentially arbitrary factors dominating over real ones, it massively accelerates the consumption of resources, and destroys societies. By enabling the services to become so disconnected from the real work that whose gears they are supposed to be oiling they start believing that they're the machine themselves and just become a self-serving drain that games the system.

I don't see how you can "fix" the problem of the world getting more connected. It is part and parcel of globalisation which itself will be driven and accelerated by the rapidly increasing move of services from the physical to the virtual world. Likewise what is real work, if it's making stuff fewer and fewer will have anything to do with that going forward.